Random Musings from the StatMan

StatMan Interactive Poll: Conference Championship X-Factors

2012-01-22T16:04:00.000-05:00

We are down to the final four teams in the National Football League for the 2011 season. On our StatMan Interactive Poll today, we have two questions, asking for the X-Factors in each conference championship game. I am defining the X-Factor to mean who will make the biggest difference in the game.

Please vote and comment on our "Sports With The StatMan" Facebook page.
Who is the X-Factor in the Baltimore-New England AFC Championship Game?

QB Tom Brady NE: Brady has been waiting for a chance to get back in the Super Bowl and also a chance to get back at the Ravens for beating the Patriots a couple of years ago. Brady was only 23-of-42 for 154 yards, throwing two touchdowns but three interceptions. The offense revolves around Brady.
RB Ray Rice BAL: Rice started that playoff game a couple of years ago with a 83-yard touchdown. With a maligned quarterback in Joe Flacco, Rice may shoulder the load of the offense and the Patriots defense will have to stop Rice to win.
TE Rob Gronkowski NE: "Gronk" has set records this season with his receiving and he has been the favorite red zone target of Tom Brady. He is athletic and part of the new breed of agile, pass-catching tight ends. He normally creates a good matchup for the Patriots due to his size, strength, and agility.
QB Joe Flacco BAL: Flacco has had his critics in the press, but last week, Ed Reed called him out. Could this be a wake-up call for Flacco to perform at his highest level in the most important game of his young career?
SS Ed Reed BAL: Reed has eight interceptions in ten career postseason games, including one last week. Reed leads the defensive secondary, as each level of the Ravens defense has a solid leader. Reed can change a game and could make Brady pay for making errant passes.
DE Terrell Suggs BAL: Suggs leads the defensive line and leads their pass rush. If Brady is not comfortable in the pocket, it will be because of Suggs. Solid defensive pressure may take Brady and the Patriots from executing their offense at their tempo on their terms in their house.

Who is the X-Factor in the NY Giants-San Francisco NFC Championship Game?

QB Eli Manning NYG: You can never count Eli Manning out. He set a record for 15 fourth quarter touchdown passes this season. Manning is now counted among the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. Do you doubt how much he means to his team? Just ask his players...or anyone that watches him play. The Giants have had one of the worst running games in their history, but the offense has not suffered.
QB Alex Smith SFO: Alex Smith had a huge game last week, passing for 299 yards and accounting for four touchdowns (three passing and one rushing) without turning the ball over. Is this the new Smith or will the Giants pass rush get to him? Smith can create outside the pocket and the Giants can be thrown on.
WR Hakeem Nicks NYG: Nicks set the tone for the Giants last week, making two game-breaking plays in the first half against Green Bay. Nicks is rangy and has the speed to make the Niner defenders see the "88" on his back as he runs into the end zone. His height makes him a big-time threat in the red zone as well.
WR Victor Cruz NYG: Just as Nicks has breakaway speed, so does Cruz, as both have a lot of yards gained after the catch. Cruz does it from the flanker position and goes over the middle, which is dangerous. If Cruz draws a double-team, Nicks is freed up. If Nicks is double-teamed, that could mean a huge day for Cruz.
RB Frank Gore SFO: Gore can help the 49ers control the ball and limit Manning and the time that the Giants offense is on the field. Gore is the 49ers all-time leading rusher and seems healthy, with 127 all-purpose yards last week against the Saints. Gore could be looking for revenge against the Giants, as he had zero yards rushing on six carries in Week 10.
TE Vernon Davis SFO: Davis had an amazing game against the Saints, with two touchdowns, including the game-winner with nine seconds left. Davis will be pivotal if the 49ers have any kind of success throwing the ball, as he accounted for 60% of Alex Smith's passing yardage last week.
LB Patrick Willis SFO: Willis is known as one of the best defensive players on the 49ers and the best have a tendency to come up big in the biggest moments. But, Willis has had his fewest number of tackles in his NFL career this year (97) and second-fewest amount of sacks (two). Willis did have eight tackles last week against New Orleans.

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We will talk about both the AFC and NFC title games on "Sports With The StatMan", this Monday (January 23rd) at 11pm ET (Click here for the live broadcast). You can tune in on our show page or look for us on iTunes. And, if you miss us, you can click on the live broadcast link above or get onto the Facebook page for the audio of the show, Episode #230.

Upcoming episodes this week:
Monday, January 23rd - 11pm ET - Sports With The StatMan #230: NFL Conference Championship Talk, NHL Talk (Episode Page)
Wednesday, January 25th - 11pm ET - Sports With The StatMan #231: This Week in Fantasy Sports (Episode Page)

StatMan Interactive Poll: Best of Divisional Playoff Weekend

2012-01-16T11:43:00.000-05:00

Sports With The StatMan has a new page on Facebook. Get on there and "like" the show! I want to hear what you have to say and I'll bring up the best of what you have on the show.

Today's StatMan Interactive Poll asks you which performance was the best in the Divisional Playoff round. You can vote by clicking here.

Here are your three choices, or you can add your own:

Patriots QB Tom Brady: Brady set a franchise record with 363 passing yards and tied an NFL playoff record with 6 TDs. Brady was relentless, setting an NFL playoff record with five touchdowns in the first half and he continues to use his tight ends, with three more TD tosses to Rob Gronkowski.
Giants WR Hakeem Nicks: Nicks almost single-handedly gave the Giants a 20-10 halftime advantage with a burst of speed for a 66-yard score and an answered prayer in the end zone, winning a jump ball for his second touchdown of the half.
49ers QB Alex Smith: Smith had his coming out party in the playoffs after a 13-3 regular season. Smith had to deal with Drew Brees and the Saints, held the lead for most of the game, and dramatically came back from not one, but two late deficits to win.

Once again, vote one of these choices or add your own. Comment here or within the poll, right on Facebook.

NFL Week 17 Picks and Predictions

2012-01-01T14:25:00.000-05:00

WEEK 16 RESULTS

Picks - Straight Up: Overall - 157-83 (.654), Last Week - All Games - 12-4, Locals - 2-1, Big Games - 2-1
Picks - Against the Spread: Overall - 121-111-8 (.521), Last Week - 7-8-1, Locals - 1-2, Big Games - 1-2
Knockout Pool - Round 3 (W, BAL def. CLE) (Teams used this season: ARZ, NYG, PIT, TBY, SDG, OAK, DAL, SFO, HOU, PHL (L), NE, ATL, NO, NYJ, GBY (L), BAL)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play: Overall - 24-23-1 (.510), Last Week - 1-2, QB - 7-9 (L, Orton KCY 12, Manning NYG 17), RB - 6-9-1 (L, Blount TBY 1, Jackson STL 12), WR - 11-5 (W, Moss WSH 4, Smith BAL 3)

WEEK 17 PICKS
Straight Up (win/loss)

Locals: NYJ (at MIA), NYG (vs DAL), NE (vs BUF), PHL (vs WSH)
Big Game Winners: BAL (at CIN), KCY (at DEN), OAK (vs SDG)
Other Winners: TEN (at HOU), JAX (vs IND), DET (at GBY), MIN (vs CHI), NO (vs CAR), SFO (at STL), PIT (at CLE), ATL (vs TBY), SEA (at ARZ)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NYJ (+2 at MIA), NYG (-3 vs DAL), NE (-11.5 vs BUF), PHL (-8.5 vs WSH)
Big Game Covers: BAL (-2.5 at CIN), KCY (+3 at DEN), OAK (-3 vs SDG)
Other Covers: TEN (-2.5 at HOU), JAX (-4 vs IND), DET (-4 at GBY), MIN (Pick 'em vs CHI), CAR (+9 at NO), SFO (-10.5 at STL), CLE (+11 vs PIT), ATL (-11.5 vs TBY), SEA (+3 at ARZ)

Knockout Pool

Round 3: Detroit (at GBY)

WEEK 17 PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF (at NE), Sit Ben Roethlisberger PIT (at CLE)
RB: Start Pierre Thomas NO (vs CAR), Sit Chris Johnson TEN (at HOU)
WR: Start Santonio Holmes NYJ (at MIA), Sit Brandon Marshall MIA (vs NYJ)

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Upcoming Schedule for Sports With The StatMan:

SWTS 223: Special Episode - 2011 StatMan Awards (Sunday 11pm ET) - Episode Page
SWTS 224: Football Night: Week 17 Recap/Wild Card Weekend Preview; Hockey Talk - NHL Week 13 (Monday 11pm ET) - Episode Page
SWTS 225: Fantasy Weekend: NFL Week 17 and Wild Card Weekend, NHL Week 13 (Wednesday 11pm ET) - Episode Page

Find the show and get in touch with the show:

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Facebook: Sports With The StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"

NFL Week 16 Picks and Predictions

2011-12-24T11:51:00.002-05:00

WEEK 15 RESULTS

Picks - Straight Up: Overall - 145-79 (.647), Last Week - All Games - 7-9, Locals - 1-2, Big Games - 1-2
Picks - Against the Spread: Overall - 114-103-7 (.525), Last Week - 6-10, Locals - 1-2, Big Games - 1-2
Knockout Pool - Knocked Out in Round 2 (L, KCY def. GBY) (Teams used this season: ARZ, NYG, PIT, TBY, SDG, OAK, DAL, SFO, HOU, PHL (L), NE, ATL, NO, NYJ, GBY (L))
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play: Overall - 23-21-1 (.522), Last Week - 1-2, QB - 7-8 (L, Grossman WSH 9, Flacco BAL 20), RB - 6-8-1 (L, Tate HOU 2, Lynch SEA 12), WR - 10-5 (W, Thomas DEN 11, Jackson SDG 8)

WEEK 16 PICKS
Straight Up (win/loss)

Locals: NYJ (vs NYG), NE (vs MIA), PHL (at DAL)
Big Game Winners: KCY (vs OAK), DET (vs SDG), NO (vs ATL)
Other Winners: HOU (at IND), DEN (at BUF), BAL (vs CLE), TEN (vs JAX), MIN (at WSH), CAR (vs TBY), CIN (vs ARZ), PIT (vs STL), SFO (at SEA), GBY (vs CHI)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NYJ (-3 vs NYG), NE (-9.5 vs MIA), PHL (+2 at DAL)
Big Game Covers: KCY (-2.5 vs OAK), DET (-2 vs SDG), ATL (+6.5 at NO)
Other Covers: HOU (-7 at IND), DEN (-2.5 at BUF), BAL (-12.5 vs CLE), JAX (+7.5 at TEN), MIN (+6.5 at WSH), CAR (-7.5 vs TBY), ARZ (+4 at CIN), PIT (-13.5 vs STL), SFO (-2 at SEA), GBY (-12.5 vs CHI)

Knockout Pool

Round 3: Baltimore (vs CLE)

WEEK 16 PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Kyle Orton KCY (vs OAK), Sit Eli Manning NYG (at NYJ)
RB: Start LeGarrette Blount TBY (at CAR), Sit Steven Jackson STL (at PIT)
WR: Start Santana Moss WSH (vs MIN), Sit Torrey Smith BAL (vs CLE)

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Upcoming Schedule for Sports With The StatMan:

SWTS 221: Football Night: Week 16 Recap/Week 17 Preview; Hockey Talk - NHL Week 12 (Monday 11pm ET) - Episode Page
SWTS 222: Fantasy Weekend: NFL Week 16 and 17, NHL Week 12 (Wednesday 11pm ET) - Episode Page

Find the show and get in touch with the show:

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Facebook: Sports With The StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"

NFL Week 15 Picks and Predictions

2011-12-18T10:08:00.002-05:00

WEEK 14 RESULTS

Picks - Straight Up: Overall - 136-65 (.677), Last Week - All Games - 11-5, Locals - 3-1, Big Games - 1-2
Picks - Against the Spread: Overall - 108-93-7 (.536), Last Week - 9-7, Locals - 1-3, Big Games - 2-1
Knockout Pool - Round 2 (W, NYJ def. KCY) (Teams used this season: ARZ, NYG, PIT, TBY, SDG, OAK, DAL, SFO, HOU, PHL (L), NE, ATL, NO, NYJ)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play: Overall - 22-19-1 (.536), Last Week - 1-2, QB - 7-7 (L, Palmer OAK 6, Newton CAR 24), RB - 6-7-1 (W, Grant GBY 23, Wells ARZ 2), WR - 9-5 (L, Burleson DET 2, Colston NO 26)

WEEK 15 PICKS
Straight Up (win/loss)

Locals: NYJ (at PHL), NYG (vs WSH), NE (at DEN)
Big Game Winners: DET (at OAK), BAL (at SDG), PIT (at SFO)
Other Winners: ATL (vs JAX), DAL (at TBY), CIN (at STL), BUF (vs MIA), TEN (at IND), CHI (vs SEA), NO (at MIN), HOU (vs CAR), GBY (at KCY), ARZ (vs CLE)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NYJ (+2.5 at PHL), NYG (-6.5 vs WSH), NE (-6.5 at DEN)
Big Game Covers: DET (Pick 'em at OAK), BAL (-2.5 at SDG), PIT (+1 at SFO)
Other Covers: ATL (-11.5 vs JAX), DAL (-6.5 at TBY), CIN (-6 at STL), BUF (-1.5 vs MIA), TEN (-6.5 at IND), SEA (+3.5 at CHI), MIN (+6.5 vs NO), HOU (-6.5 vs CAR), GBY (-13.5 at KCY), ARZ (-7 vs CLE)

Knockout Pool

Round 2: Green Bay (at KCY)

WEEK 15 PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Rex Grossman WSH (at NYG), Sit Joe Flacco BAL (at SDG)
RB: Start Ben Tate HOU (vs CAR), Sit Marshawn Lynch SEA (at CHI)
WR: Start Demaryius Thomas DEN (vs NE), Sit Vincent Jackson SDG (vs BAL)

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Upcoming Schedule for Sports With The StatMan:

SWTS 219: Football Night: Week 15 Recap/Week 16 Preview; Hockey Talk - NHL Week 11 (Monday 11pm ET) - Episode Page
SWTS 220: Fantasy Weekend: NFL Week 15 and 16, NHL Week 11 (Wednesday 11pm ET) - Episode Page

Find the show and get in touch with the show:

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"

NFL Week 14 Picks and Predictions

2011-12-11T14:44:00.001-05:00

WEEK 13 RESULTS

Picks - Straight Up: Overall - 125-60 (.676), Last Week - All Games - 12-4, Locals - 4-0, Big Games - 2-1
Picks - Against the Spread: Overall - 99-86-7 (.534), Last Week - 9-7, Locals - 2-2, Big Games - 1-2
Knockout Pool - Round 2 (W, NO def. DET) (Teams used this season: ARZ, NYG, PIT, TBY, SDG, OAK, DAL, SFO, HOU, PHL (L), NE, ATL, NO)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play: Overall - 21-17-1 (.551), Last Week - 1-2, QB - 7-6 (W, Moore MIA 20, Fitzpatrick BUF 14), RB - 5-7-1 (L, Williams CAR 2, Bush OAK 3), WR - 9-4 (L, Decker DEN 2, Nelson GBY 9)

WEEK 14 PICKS
Straight Up (win/loss)

Locals: NYJ (vs KCY), NYG (at DAL), NE (at WSH), MIA (vs PHL)
Big Game Winners: CIN (vs HOU), CHI (at DEN), NO (at TEN)
Other Winners: PIT (vs CLE), GBY (vs OAK), BAL (vs IND), DET (vs MIN), ATL (at CAR), TBY (at JAX), SFO (at ARZ), SDG (vs BUF), SEA (vs STL)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: KCY (+9 at NYJ), NYG (+3.5 at DAL), NE (-9 at WSH), MIA (-3 vs PHL)
Big Game Covers: CIN (-3 vs HOU), CHI (+3.5 at DEN), NO (-4 at TEN)
Other Covers: PIT (-14 vs CLE), GBY (-11.5 vs OAK), IND (+16 at BAL), DET (-10.5 vs MIN), ATL (-3 at CAR), TBY (-3 at JAX), ARZ (+3.5 vs SFO), SDG (-7 vs BUF), SEA (-10 vs STL)

Knockout Pool

Round 2: NY Jets (vs KCY)

WEEK 14 PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Carson Palmer OAK (at GBY), Sit Cam Newton CAR (vs ATL)
RB: Start Ryan Grant (vs OAK), Sit Beanie Wells ARZ (vs SFO)
WR: Start Nate Burleson (vs MIN), Sit Marques Colston (at TEN)

***

Upcoming Schedule for Sports With The StatMan:

SWTS 217: Football Night: Week 14 Recap/Week 15 Preview; Hockey Talk - NHL Week 9 Weekend (Monday 11pm ET) - Episode Page
SWTS 218: Fantasy Weekend: NFL Week 14 and 15, NHL Week 10 (Wednesday 11pm ET) - Episode Page

Find the show and get in touch with the show:

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"

NFL Week 13 Picks and Predictions

2011-12-04T15:54:00.003-05:00

WEEK 12 RESULTS

Picks - Straight Up: Overall - 113-56 (.669), Last Week - All Games - 13-3, Locals - 3-0, Big Games - 3-0
Picks - Against the Spread: Overall - 90-79-7 (.531), Last Week - 6-6-1, Locals - 1-2, Big Games - 2-1
Knockout Pool - Round 2 (W, ATL def. MIN) (Teams used this season: ARZ, NYG, PIT, TBY, SDG, OAK, DAL, SFO, HOU, PHL (L), NE, ATL)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play: Overall - 20-15-1, Last Week - 3-0, QB - 6-6 (W, Sanchez 27, Smith 4), RB - 5-6-1 (W, Benson 18, Rice 7), WR - 9-3 (W, Burress 11, Bryant 3)

WEEK 13 PICKS
Straight Up (win/loss)

Locals: NYJ (at WSH), GBY (at NYG), NE (vs IND), SEA (vs PHL)
Big Game Winners: PIT (vs CIN), ATL (at HOU), NO (vs DET)
Other Winners: CHI (vs TEN), TEN (at BUF), OAK (at MIA), CAR (at TBY), DEN (at MIN), BAL (at CLE), DAL (at ARZ), SFO (vs STL), SDG (at JAX)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NYJ (-3 at WSH), GBY (-6.5 at NYG), NE (-20.5 vs IND), SEA (+3 vs PHL)
Big Game Covers: CIN (+7 at PIT), ATL (-2.5 at HOU), NO (-9 vs DET)
Other Covers: CHI (-7 vs KCY), TEN (+1.5 at BUF), OAK (+3 at MIA), CAR (+3.5 at TBY), DEN (+1.5 at MIN), CLE (+6.5 vs BAL), ARZ (+4.5 vs DAL), SFO (-13 vs STL), SDG (-3 at JAX)

Knockout Pool

Round 2: New Orleans (vs DET)

WEEK 13 PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Matt Moore MIA (vs OAK), Sit Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF (vs TEN)
RB: Start DeAngelo Williams CAR (at TBY), Sit Michael Bush OAK (at MIA)
WR: Start Eric Decker DEN (at MIN), Sit Jordy Nelson GBY (at NYG)

***

Upcoming Schedule for Sports With The StatMan:

SWTS 216: Football Night: Week 7 Recap/Week 8 Preview; Hockey Talk - NHL Week 3 Weekend (Monday 11pm ET) - Episode Page
SWTS 217: Fantasy Weekend: NFL Week 7 Recap and Week 8 Preview, NHL Week 3 Recap and Week 4 Preview (Wednesday 11pm ET) - Episode Page

Find the show and get in touch with the show:

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"

StatMan On Football: The Unstoppable Force and the Immovable Object

2011-11-09T22:42:00.002-05:00

Welcome to StatMan On Football, our weekly football column. We might tackle a local football topic or a national football topic, but look for it right here every Tuesday (or, in this case, Wednesday). This week, we take a look at the upcoming Sunday night matchup between AFC East arch-rivals, the Patriots and the Jets.

The Patriots and Jets, improbable as it sounded just twoweeks ago, are neck and neck in the division, joined by the underdog BuffaloBills, in a three-way tie for first halfway through the regular seasonschedule. In a season of unbelievablestorylines, this has to be right up there.

This time, the trash talk should subside. There is more on the line than idlechit-chat, as long as Rex Ryan keeps his brash talk under wraps. Both teams respect each other and both teamsknow a win is not a given this Sunday at MetLife Stadium. The Patriots are in no mood for jokingaround, as they are losers of two in a row and almost dropped the last gamethey won at home to the Cowboys. The Jetsare feeling good, but why wake the sleeping giant? It is normally what the Jets do, but thistime should be different.

The Patriots were playing like the unstoppable force theyhave been. New England scored 30 or morepoints in 14 straight contests and, outside of a playoff loss to these sameJets and a surprising four interception performance by Tom Brady againstBuffalo early this year, they are a sure bet. The Jets played like windmills against opposing teams’ running attacksearlier this year. But, after a mediocrestart, the Jets beat the Dolphins as the defense made a comeback. Following that win, the Jets came back lateagainst San Diego and suffocated Buffalo after the bye week. Their play and their results may not beimmovable objects, but the indomitable spirit that the Jets have is certainlyimmovable.

Derrick Mason wavered and complained openly. He is gone. The rest of the team stopped pretty quickly, which tells me that Ryancontinues to have his finger on the pulse of his team. After Darrelle Revis’s incident on MikeFrancesa’s radio show before the San Diego game, the Jets have not done as muchtalking. No wrestling appearances. No YouTube embarrassments. They were anonymous for a week. They appeared in Buffalo and took care ofbusiness and Ryan seemed humble.

The Jets’ confidence is starting to set in with this teamand they believe again. That alone makesthis matchup a must-see.

What is your take on the Patriots and Jets this week? Feel free to leave a comment. I'll announce the best stuff on the Sports With The StatMan show.

NFL Week 7 Picks and Predictions

2011-10-23T15:03:00.001-04:00

WEEK 6 RESULTS

Picks - Straight Up: Overall - 62-28 (.689), Last Week - All Games - 8-5, Locals - 2-2, Big Games - 1-2
Picks - Against the Spread: Overall - 45-40-5 (.528), Last Week - 6-6-1, Locals - 3-1, Big Games - 1-2
Knockout Pool - 6-0 (ARZ, NYG, PIT, TBY, SDG,OAK)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play: Overall - 12-6, Last Week - 2-1, QB - 4-2 (W, Dalton 16, Manning 11), RB - 2-4 (L, Torain 2, Gore 18), WR - 6-0 (W, Jones 11, Maclin 10)

WEEK 7 PICKS
Straight Up (win/loss)

Locals: SDG (at NYJ), BYE for NYG, NE, PHL
Big Game Winners: TEN (vs HOU), DET (vs ATL), TBY (vs CHI in London)
Other Winners: DEN (at MIA), WSH (at CAR), CLE (vs SEA), PIT (at ARZ), OAK (vs KCY), GBY (at MIN), DAL (vs STL), NO (vs IND), BAL (at JAX)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: SDG (-1 at NYJ), BYE for NYG, NE, PHL
Big Game Covers: HOU (+3.5 at TEN), DET (-3.5 vs ATL), TBY (+1 vs CHI in London)
Other Covers: DEN (+1 at MIA), WSH (+1 at CAR), CLE (-2.5 vs SEA), PIT (-3.5 at ARZ), KCY (+4.5 at OAK), GBY (-9.5 at MIN), DAL (-13.5 vs STL), NO (-14.5 vs IND), BAL (-9.5 at JAX)

Knockout Pool

Round 1: Dallas (vs STL)

WEEK 7 PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Kevin Kolb ARZ (vs PIT), Sit Joe Flacco BAL (at JAX)
RB: Start Tim Hightower WSH (at CAR), Sit Arian Foster HOU (at TEN)
WR: Start Greg Little CLE (vs SEA), Sit Mike Wallace PIT (at ARZ)

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Upcoming Schedule for Sports With The StatMan:

SWTS 203: Baseball Playoff Talk - World Series; Hockey Talk - NHL Week 3 (Monday 11pm ET) -Episode Page
SWTS 204: Football Night: Week 7 Recap/Week 8 Preview; Hockey Talk - NHL Week 3 Weekend (Wednesday 11pm ET) - Episode Page
SWTS 205: Fantasy Weekend: NFL Week 7 Recap and Week 8 Preview, NHL Week 3 Recap and Week 4 Preview (Saturday 11am ET) - Episode Page

Find the show and get in touch with the show:

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"

NFL Week 6 Picks and Predictions

2011-10-16T14:44:00.002-04:00

WEEK 5 RESULTS

Picks - Straight Up: Overall - 54-23, Last Week - All Games - 9-4, Locals - 1-2, Big Games - 2-1
Picks - Against the Spread: Overall - 39-34-4, Last Week - 8-5, Locals - 1-2, Big Games - 2-1
Knockout Pool - 5-0 (ARZ, NYG, PIT, TBY, SDG)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play: Overall - 10-5, Last Week - 1-2, QB - 3-2 (L, Orton (-1), Freeman 3), RB - 2-3 (L, Tomlinson 1, Best 26), WR - 5-0 (W, Floyd 20, D. Jackson 16)

WEEK 6 PICKS
Straight Up (win/loss)

Locals: NYJ (vs MIA), BUF (at NYG), NE (vs DAL), WSH (vs PHL)
Big Game Winners: DET (vs SFO), BAL (vs HOU), NO (at TBY)
Other Winners: CIN (vs IND), PIT (vs JAX), GBY (vs STL), ATL (vs CAR), OAK (vs CLE), MIN (at CHI)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NYJ (-7.5 vs MIA), BUF (+3.5 at NYG), DAL (+7 at NE), WSH (+2.5 vs PHL)
Big Game Covers: DET (-4.5 vs SFO), BAL (-7 vs HOU), NO (-4 at TBY)
Other Covers: IND (+7 at CIN), PIT (-13 vs JAX), GBY (-14.5 vs STL), ATL (-4.5 vs CAR), OAK (-7 vs CLE), MIN (+3 at CHI)

Knockout Pool

Round 1: Oakland (vs CLE)

WEEK 6 PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Andy Dalton CIN (vs IND), Sit Eli Manning NYG (vs BUF)
RB: Start Ryan Torain WSH (vs PHL), Sit Frank Gore SFO (at DET)
WR: Start James Jones GBY (vs STL), Sit Jeremy Maclin PHL (at WSH)

***

Upcoming Schedule for Sports With The StatMan:

SWTS 200: Baseball Playoff Talk - LCS Wrap, World Series Preview; Hockey Talk - NHL Week 2 (Monday 11pm ET) -Episode Page
SWTS 201: Football Night: Week 6 Recap/Week 7 Preview; Hockey Talk - NHL Week 2 Weekend (Wednesday 11pm ET) - Episode Page
SWTS 202: Fantasy Weekend: NFL Week 6 Recap and Week 7 Preview, NHL Week 2 Recap and Week 3 Preview (Saturday 11am ET) - Episode Page

Find the show and get in touch with the show:

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"

NFL Week 5 Picks and Predictions

2011-10-16T14:25:00.003-04:00

WEEK 4 RESULTS

Picks - Straight Up: Overall - 45-19, Last Week - All Games - 13-3, Locals - 3-1, Big Games - 2-1
Picks - Against the Spread: Overall - 31-29-4, Last Week - 8-8, Locals - 2-2, Big Games - 1-2
Knockout Pool - 4-0 (ARZ, NYG, PIT, TBY)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play: Overall - 9-3, Last Week - 3-0, QB - 3-1 (W, Campbell 15, Fitzpatrick 7), RB - 2-2 (W, Hunter 9, Mendenhall 6), WR - 4-0 (W, Harvin 10, Wayne 5)

WEEK 5 PICKS
Straight Up (win/loss)

Locals: NE (vs NYJ), NYG (vs SEA), PHL (at BUF)
Big Game Winners: GBY (at ATL), DET (vs CHI), HOU (vs OAK)
Other Winners: TEN (at PIT), KCY (at IND), CIN (at JAX), MIN (vs ARZ), NO (at CAR), SFO (vs TBY), SDG (at DEN)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NE (-9.5 vs NYJ), SEA (+10 at NYG), PHL (-3 at BUF)
Big Game Covers: ATL (+5.5 vs GBY), DET (-5.5 vs CHI), OAK (+6 at HOU)
Other Covers: TEN (+3.5 at PIT), KCY (+1.5 at IND), CIN (+1.5 at JAX), MIN (-3 vs ARZ), NO (-6.5 at CAR), SFO (-2.5 vs TBY), SDG (-4 at DEN)

Knockout Pool

Round 1: San Diego (at DEN)

WEEK 5 PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Kyle Orton DEN (vs SDG), Sit Josh Freeman TBY (at SFO)
RB: Start LaDainian Tomlinson NYJ (at NE), Sit Jahvid Best DET (vs CHI)
WR: Start Malcom Floyd SDG (at DEN), Sit DeSean Jackson PHL (at BUF)

***

Upcoming Schedule for Sports With The StatMan:

SWTS 200: Baseball Playoff Talk - LCS Wrap, World Series Preview; Hockey Talk - NHL Week 2 (Monday 11pm ET) - Episode Page
SWTS 201: Football Night: Week 6 Recap/Week 7 Preview; Hockey Talk - NHL Week 2 Weekend (Wednesday 11pm ET) - Episode Page
SWTS 202: Fantasy Weekend: NFL Week 6 Recap and Week 7 Preview, NHL Week 2 Recap and Week 3 Preview (Saturday 11am ET) - Episode Page

Find the show and get in touch with the show:

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"

NFL Week 4 Picks and Predictions

2011-10-02T13:29:00.000-04:00

The NFC East is bunched up and topsy-turvy with the Eagles in last-place and the other three teams, including the previously-hapless Redskins, at 2-1. The Jets and Patriots both ran up against two of the most surprising teams so far this season in losses on the road to Oakland and Buffalo, respectively. The Patriots play at Oakland this week and both (!) teams have already lost to Buffalo this season. What has gotten into the Buffalo Bills and can their run continue at Cincinnati this week. Read on to find out.

WEEK 3 RESULTS

Picks - Straight Up: Overall - 32-16, Last Week - 10-6, Locals - 0-3, Big Games - 2-1
Picks - Against the Spread: Overall - 23-21-4, Last Week - 10-5-1, Locals - 1-2, Big Games - 2-1
Knockout Pool - 3-0 (ARZ, NYG, PIT)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play: Overall - 6-3, Last Week - 1-2, QB - 2-1 (L, McCoy 20, Roethlisberger 21), RB - 1-2 (L, T. Jones 3, McFadden 31), WR - 3-0 (W, Gaffney 6, Nicks 2)

WEEK 4 PICKS
Straight Up (win/loss)

Locals: BAL (vs NYJ), NYG (at ARZ), PHL (vs SFO), NE (at OAK)
Big Game Winners: HOU (vs PIT), DAL (vs DET), ATL (at SEA)
Other Winners: BUF (at CIN), TEN (at CLE), CHI (vs CAR), WSH (at STL), NO (at JAX), KCY (vs MIN), GBY (vs DEN), SDG (vs MIA), TBY (vs IND)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NYJ (+3.5 at BAL), NYG (-1.5 at ARZ), PHL (-9 vs SFO), NE (-5 at OAK)
Big Game Covers: HOU (-3.5 vs PIT), DAL (-2 vs DET), ATL (-4 at SEA)
Other Covers: BUF (-3 at CIN), TEN (Pick 'em at CLE), CHI (-6 vs CAR), WSH (-2.5 at STL), NO (-7 at JAX), KCY (+2 vs MIN), DEN (+12.5 at GBY), MIA (+7 at SDG), IND (+10 at TBY)

Knockout Pool

Round 1: Tampa Bay (vs IND)

WEEK 4 PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Jason Campbell OAK (vs NE), Sit Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF (at CIN)
RB: Start Kendall Hunter SFO (at PHL), Sit Rashard Mendenhall PIT (at HOU)
WR: Start Percy Harvin MIN (at KCY), Sit Reggie Wayne (at TBY)

***

Upcoming Schedule for Sports With The StatMan:

SWTS 194: Baseball Playoff Talk, NHL Preview: Central and Southeast Divisions (Monday 11pm ET) - Show Preview
SWTS 195: Football Night: Week 4, NHL Preview: Northeast and Atlantic Divisions (Wednesday 11pm ET) - Show Preview
SWTS 196: Fantasy Weekend: NFL Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Preview, NHL Fantasy Preview: Defensemen and Goaltenders (Saturday 11am ET) - Show Preview

Find the show and get in touch with the show:

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"

NFL Week 3 Picks and Predictions

2011-10-02T12:54:00.001-04:00

We have our first meeting between local teams this week as the Giants travel down the Turnpike to take on the Eagles. Will Michael Vick run roughshod over the Giants in a repeat of last season's big comeback? We pick that game, and all others, right here.

WEEK 2 RESULTS

Picks - Straight Up: Overall - 12-4, Locals - 3-1, Big Games - 3-0
Picks - Against the Spread: Overall - 7-7-2, Locals - 1-3, Big Games - 1-1-1
Knockout Pool - 2-0 (ARZ, NYG)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play: Overall - 5-1, QB - 2-0 (Newton 26, Sanchez 17), RB - 1-1 (Addai 9, C. Johnson 6), WR - 2-0 (J. Nelson 18, S. Johnson 13)

WEEK 3 PICKS
Straight Up (win/loss)

Locals: NYJ (at OAK), PHL (vs NYG), NE (at BUF)
Big Game Winners: NO (vs HOU), GBY (at CHI), ATL (at TBY)
Other Winners: CAR (vs JAX), MIA (at CLE), TEN (vs DEN), DET (at MIN), SFO (at CIN), SDG (vs KCY), BAL (at STL), SEA (vs ARZ), PIT (at IND), WSH (at DAL)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NYJ (-3 at OAK), NYG (+9 at PHL), NE (-7 at BUF)
Big Game Covers: NO (-4 vs HOU), GBY (-3.5 at CHI), ATL (+1.5 at TBY)
Other Covers: CAR (-3 vs JAX), MIA (+2.5 at CLE), DEN (+6.5 at TEN), DET (-3 at MIN), SFO (+2.5 at CIN), SDG (-14.5 vs KCY), BAL (-4 at STL), SEA (+3 vs ARZ), PIT (-10.5 at IND), WSH (+5.5 at DAL)

Knockout Pool

Round 1: Pittsburgh (at IND)

WEEK 3 PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Colt McCoy CLE (vs MIA), Sit Ben Roethlisberger PIT (at IND)
RB: Start Thomas Jones KCY (at SDG), Sit Darren McFadden OAK (vs NYJ)
WR: Start Jabar Gaffney WSH (at DAL), Sit Hakeem Nicks NYG (at PHL)

***

Upcoming Schedule for Sports With The StatMan:

SWTS 194: Baseball Playoff Talk, NHL Preview: Central and Southeast Divisions (Monday 11pm ET) - Show Preview
SWTS 195: Football Night: Week 4, NHL Preview: Northeast and Atlantic Divisions (Wednesday 11pm ET) - Show Preview
SWTS 196: Fantasy Weekend: NFL Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Preview, NHL Fantasy Preview: Defensemen and Goaltenders (Saturday 11am ET) - Show Preview

Find the show and get in touch with the show:

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"

NFL Week 2 Picks and Predictions

2011-10-02T12:40:00.000-04:00

We are catching up as the NFL season moves very fast. We have analyzed our picks each week during our Fantasy Weekend show on Saturday mornings at 11am ET. Visit the show page at http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan for upcoming shows and show times.

WEEK 1 RESULTS

Picks - Straight Up: Overall - 10-6, Locals - 3-1, Big Games - 1-2
Picks - Against the Spread: Overall - 6-9-1, Locals - 2-2, Big Games - 0-3
Knockout Pool - 1-0 (Arizona)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play: Overall - 2-1, QB - 1-0 (Henne 35, Freeman 14), RB - 0-1 (Jacobs 2, Hillis 8), WR - 1-0 (Burress 15, Bowe 1)

WEEK 2 PICKS
Straight Up (win/loss)

Locals: NYJ (W vs JAX), NYG (W vs STL), PHL (W at ATL), NE (W vs SDG)
Big Game Winners: DET (W vs KCY), NO (W vs CHI), BUF (W vs OAK)
Other Winners: BAL (W at TEN), IND (W vs CLE), WSH (W vs ARZ), TBY (W at MIN), GBY (W at CAR), PIT (W vs SEA), DAL (W at SFO), CIN (W at DEN), HOU (W at MIA)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NYJ (-8.5 vs JAX), STL (+6 at NYG), PHL (-2 at ATL), SDG (+7 at NE)
Big Game Covers: KCY (+7.5 at DET), NO (-6.5 vs CHI), BUF (-3 vs OAK)
Other Covers: BAL (-5.5 at TEN), IND (-1.5 vs CLE), ARZ (+3.5 at WSH), TBY (+3 at MIN), GBY (-9.5 at CAR), PIT (-14 vs SEA), SFO (+3 vs DAL), CIN (+3.5 at DEN), HOU (-3 at MIA)

Knockout Pool

Round 1: NYG (vs STL)

WEEK 2 PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Cam Newton CAR (vs GBY), Sit Mark Sanchez NYJ (vs JAX)
RB: Start Joseph Addai IND (vs CLE), Sit Chris Johnson TEN (vs BAL)
WR: Start Jordy Nelson GBY (at CAR), Sit Steve Johnson BUF (vs OAK)

***

Upcoming Schedule for Sports With The StatMan:

SWTS 194: Baseball Playoff Talk, NHL Preview: Central and Southeast Divisions (Monday 11pm ET) - Show Preview
SWTS 195: Football Night: Week 4, NHL Preview: Northeast and Atlantic Divisions (Wednesday 11pm ET) - Show Preview
SWTS 196: Fantasy Weekend: NFL Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Preview, NHL Fantasy Preview: Defensemen and Goaltenders (Saturday 11am ET) - Show Preview

Find the show and get in touch with the show:

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"

Week 1 NFL Picks and Predictions

2011-09-11T15:15:00.000-04:00

Happy opening weekend everybody! The new season is upon us and it is time to get down to business: our Week 1 preview. We will be posting our picks on the blog each week and analyzing each week on Football Night with the StatMan, each Wednesday on Sports With The StatMan (11pm ET at http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan).

2010 RESULTS

Picks - Straight Up: All - 164-92 (.641), Big Games - 28-23
Picks - Against The Spread: All - 130-118-8 (.523), Big Games - 23-27-1
Knockout Pool - 7 Rounds: 11-6 in Knockout picks
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play: All - 30-18-8 (.618), QB - 12-5, RB - 9-6-2, WR - 9-7-1

WEEK 1 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)

Locals: NYJ (W vs. DAL), NYG (W at WSH), PHL (W at STL), NE (W at MIA)
Big Game Winners: GBY (vs. NO), PIT (at BAL), ATL (at CHI)
Other Winners: CLE (vs. CIN), HOU (vs. IND), TEN (at JAX), KCY (vs. BUF), DET (at TBY), ARZ (vs. CAR), SFO (vs. SEA), SDG (vs. MIN), OAK (at DEN)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NYJ (-5.5 vs DAL), NYG (-3 at WSH), PHL (-3.5 at STL), NE (-6.5 at MIA)
Big Game Covers: NO (+4.5 at GBY), PIT (+1.5 at BAL), ATL (-2 at CHI)
Other Covers: CIN (+6.5 at CLE), IND (+9 at HOU), TEN (+1.5 at JAX), KCY (-5.5 vs BUF), DET (+1.5 at TBY), CAR (+7 at ARZ), SFO (-5.5 vs. SEA), SDG (-8.5 vs. MIN), OAK (+3 at OAK)

Knockout Pool

Round 1: Arizona (vs. Carolina)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Chad Henne MIA (vs. NE), Sit Josh Freeman TBY (vs. DET)
RB: Start Brandon Jacobs NYG (at WSH), Sit Peyton Hillis CLE (vs. CIN)
WR: Start Plaxico Burress NYJ (vs. DAL), Sit Dwayne Bowe KCY (vs. BUF)

***

Upcoming Schedule for Sports With The StatMan:

SWTS 187: Baseball Talk (Monday 11pm ET) - Show Preview
SWTS 188: Football Night (Wednesday 11pm ET) - Show Preview
SWTS 189: Fantasy Weekend (Saturday 11am ET) - Show Preview

Find the show and get in touch with the show:

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"
Extra audio available at: http://www.cinch.fm/gstatman

StatMan Contender Index: Week of August 22nd, 2011

2011-08-22T22:48:00.003-04:00

The StatMan Contender Index is an index that looks at a team's remaining schedule, its standing, and the number of remaining games in the season to determine how much of a chance the team has of making the playoffs. It is on a scale from 0 to 1 with a higher number meaning a greater chance of making the playoffs. Click here for the explanation of the StatMan Contender Index (SCI).

# Team SCI (Change/Last week) - W-L, WPCT - Standing in Division, number of games ahead or back (week) - WPCT for rest of season/WPCT for next two weeks (8/22-9/4)
1. Philadelphia .8404 (+.1269) - 81-44, .648 (3-4) - 1st in NL East, 6.5 GA - .500/.467 (Last week: 1)
2. Milwaukee .6495 (+.0764) - 76-52, 594 (6-1) - 1st in NL Central, 8.5 GA - .484/.443 (LW: 4)
3. Atlanta .6270 (+.1036) - 76-52, .594 (6-1) - 2nd in NL East, 6.5 GB - .502/.462 (NLWC Leader) (LW: 7)
4. NY Yankees .6209 (-.0091) - 77-48, .616 (5-2) - 1st in AL East, 0.5 GA - .497/.479 (LW: 2)
5. Boston - .5745 (-.0290) - 77-49, .611 (4-3) - 2nd in AL East, 0.5 GB - .521/.553 (LW: 3)
6. San Francisco .5425 (+.0126) - 68-60, .531 (2-5) - 2nd in NL West, 1.5 GB - .458/.433 (LW: 6)
7. Arizona .5397 (+.0211) - 69-58, .543 (1-5) - 1st in NL West, 1.5 GA - .476/.486 (LW: 9)
8. Detroit .5373 (+.0030) - 68-58, .540 (4-2) - 1st in AL Central, 4.5 GA - .463/.480 (LW: 5)
9. Texas .5133 (-.0077) - 73-55, .570 (4-3) - 1st in AL West, 4 GA - .517/.581 (LW: 8)
10. LA Angels .4865 (+.0100) - 69-59, .539 (4-3) - 2nd in AL West, 4 GA - .483/.476 (LW: 12)
Other Local Teams:
25. NY Mets .2770 (-.0744) - 60-66, .476 (2-4) - 4th in NL East, 21.5 GB - .525/.537 (LW: 21)

Analysis: Philadelphia continues their march to a Red October, as their chances went up over 12.7%. Most people would say the Phillies have a 100% chance of making the playoffs. But, the Braves picked up three games on the Phillies, as did the Brewers in the quest for the best record in the National League. The second biggest jump (10.4%) belongs to Atlanta, who is now eight games ahead in the Wild Card race. San Francisco is the team with the best SCI which does not to have a division lead or a Wild Card lead. The Giants are ranked higher than Arizona based on their opponents the rest of the way. Another race that seemingly got a bit tighter, though it really did not, is in the American League West, where Texas dropped a smidge in the SCI and the Angels gained a percentage point in their quest to stay alive in the playoff hunt.

My Two Cents: Jim Thome's 600th Home Run

2011-08-16T12:24:00.003-04:00

We have a new feature on the Random Musings blog: My Two Cents. This feature is a series of blog posts that will serve as quick reactions to topical sports news. The blog posts will be quick bursts of thought of under 500 words, meant to give you my opinion quickly instead of waiting for the next Sports With The StatMan show. Sometimes, it will be a reaction to a sports column or a reaction to something that happens on or off the field. I hope you enjoy it and feel free to leave a comment after this post to let me know what you think.

The Story: Jim Thome’s 600th Home Run On August 15th, Jim Thome hit two homers, robbing baseball of covering every at-bat for a few days, as he smashed his 599th and 600th homers in consecutive at-bats as the Twins defeated the Tigers in Detroit, 9-6.

My Two Cents:

Jim Thome is one of the good guys in baseball, every bit as much as Derek Jeter, who hit a career milestone this year as well with his 3,000th hit. Thome has been every bit as quiet and every bit as gentlemanly. And, with all of the whispers of steroids around baseball for the better part of the past two decades, Thome and Jeter had one more thing in common: they reportedly did it clean.

A look at Thome's career statistics shows the five teams on which he played. He played on two World Series teams, but his Indians lost in 1995 to the Braves and in 1997 to the Marlins. He rose to prominence with Cleveland and his latest feat was in Minnesota. For all of the highlights I have seen of Jim Thome's career since last night, I have not seen any highlight of Thome in a Phillies uniform. If you overlook Jim Thome in a Phillies uniform, you are overlooking the start of an unparallel Phillies run, the likes of which the franchise has never seen.

I remember the 2002-03 offseason when Thome was a free agent. He took a meeting with the Phillies' front office and it was a joke. I mean, Thome signing with the Phillies? It was a pipe dream. Yes, the Phillies overpaid on a huge 6-year, $85 million deal, but the fact that any top free agent was willing to sign with Philadelphia was news. This is not the 4-time defending National League East Champion Phillies, not the 2008 World Series Champion Phillies. These were the Scott Rolen, Mike Lieberthal, Doug Glanville, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla, and Bobby Abreu Phillies. Travis Lee was the incumbent first baseman. When he was traded to Chicago after the 2005 season, in which he sustained a season-ending elbow injury, Ryan Howard took over. He was also the bridge between Larry Bowa and Charlie Manuel, Marlon Anderson and Chase Utley, and Jose Mesa and Ryan Madson.

But, he was more than a bridge. Much like what he helped accomplished in Cleveland, he was part of a rebirth of a franchise. The sad-sack Indians turned into perennial playoff entrants. The Phillies won 86 games in his first season in South Philly (2003), 86 the next year, and 88 the final year, of which he did not have that much to contribute because of his injury. But, by then, the Phillies were a different team.

You can, and should, give a lot of credit to Bowa, Rolen, Abreu, Jimmy Rollins, and Pat Burrell. The Phillies were far from baseball royalty when Thome signed his big deal with Philadelphia. He provided the big piece to give the Phillies league-wide credibility from other teams and other free agents. Would recent free agents like Cliff Lee sign with the Phillies? Maybe not, and the Phillies may not be the current team you see running away with the National League East, playing to packed houses on a nightly basis.

StatMan Contender Index: Week of August 15th, 2011

2011-08-16T01:35:00.001-04:00

The StatMan Contender Index is an index that looks at a team's remaining schedule, its standing, and the number of remaining games in the season to determine how much of a chance the team has of making the playoffs. It is on a scale from 0 to 1 with a higher number meaning a greater chance of making the playoffs. Click here for the explanation of the StatMan Contender Index (SCI).

# Team CI - W-L, WPCT - Standing in Division, number of games ahead or back - WPCT for rest of season/WPCT for next two weeks (8/15-8/28)
1. Philadelphia .7135 - 78-41, .655 - 1st in NL East, 9 GA - .502/.498
2. NY Yankees .6300 - 72-46, .610 - 2nd in AL East, 0.5 GB - .485/.422 (ALWC Leader)
3. Boston - .6036 - 73-46, .613 - 1st in AL East, 0.5 GA - .509/.487
4. Milwaukee .5731 - 70-51, .579 - 1st in NL Central, 5 GA - .483/.463
5. Detroit .5343 - 64-56, .533 - 1st in AL Central, 2.5 GA - .466/.486
6. San Francisco .5299 - 66-55, .545 - 2nd in NL West, 2 GB - .457/.415
6. Atlanta .5234 - 70-51, .579 - 2nd in NL East, 9 GB - .515/.505 (NLWC Leader)
7. Texas .5210 - 69-52, .570 - 1st in AL West, 4 GA - .517/.551
8. Arizona .5186 - 68-53, .562 - 1st in NL West, 2 GA - .494/.534
9. Cleveland .4967 - 60-57, .513 - 2nd in AL Central, 2.5 GB - .480/.471
10. Chicago White Sox .4768 - 60-60, .500 - 3rd in AL Central, 4 GB - .487/.512
Other Local Teams:
21. NY Mets .3514 - 58-62, .483 - 58-62, .483 - 3rd in NL East, 11.5 GB - .524/.564

Analysis: The strongest teams of the league are in the top three, as the Phillies, Yankees, and Red Sox are the three best teams. The Yankees get a bit of a leg up because of the relative ease of the remaining schedule compared to the Red Sox. The Giants are the top team which would not qualify for a playoff spot if the season were to end today. San Francisco even ranks ahead of the team in first place in its division, Arizona. The Giants have a .457 opposing winning percentage the rest of the way compared to .494 for the Diamondbacks' opponents.

Introducing: The StatMan Contender Index

2011-08-16T01:30:00.001-04:00

I would like to introduce a new metric in trying to predict which Major League Baseball team will make the playoffs during a baseball season. It is a quick look on a team's postseason chances and reduces it to a number. You can use the actual number or turn it into a percentage by multiplying the number by 100. It is called the StatMan Contender Index (SCI) and takes the following information into account:

* Strength of remaining schedule, determined by the winning percentage of a team's opposition

* Magic numbers and elimination numbers for the division and Wild Card

* Games remaining for the regular season

The percentages between all contenders do not add up to 100%. It may also seem that a team which is "out of the race" still seems to have a significant chance of qualifying for the playoffs. In these cases, it is best to evaluate a poor team's SCI with the SCI of its main competition for the division or the Wild Card.

We hope you enjoy this metric. Over time, if we can, we will look to refine it and add a little more complexity to improve its accuracy.

My Two Cents: The Nassau Coliseum Referendum

2011-08-02T02:14:00.000-04:00

We are starting a new feature on the Random Musings blog: My Two Cents. This feature will be a series of blog posts that will serve as quick reactions to topical sports news. The blog posts will be quick bursts of thought of under 500 words, meant to give you my opinion quickly instead of waiting for the next Sports With The StatMan show. Sometimes, it will be a reaction to a sports column or a reaction to something that happens on or off the field. I hope you enjoy it and feel free to leave a comment after this post to let me know what you think.

The Story: The Nassau Coliseum Referendum

On August 1st, voters in Nassau County went to the polls to determine if the County can borrow up to $400 million, $350 million of which would be dedicated to a new arena right next to the current Nassau Coliseum. If the vote passes, the Nassau County legislature approves the vote with a supermajority, and if the Nassau Interim Finance Authority (NIFA) approves the deal, the new arena would keep the Islanders in Nassau County for the next 30 years.

According to the Nassau County Board of Elections website tonight, the referendum was voted down by a 57%-43% margin.

My Two Cents:
In a word: disgraceful. If this was a hockey game, the Nassau County politicians would be up by so many goals on Charles Wang and the Islanders, that sumo wrestler Wang thought of signing would be tending goal. Wang was the convenient pawn in the political game between the likes of Kate Murray, Ed Mangano, and Jay Jacobs. He was played by both sides when the Lighthouse Project and this current option was shot down, though this one was shot down a little more democratically. Either way, the Islanders, the citizens of Nassau County, and the progress of the County all lost.

If Wang tries to make things work in Nassau County ever again, he deserves to get played again. Now is the time to make a deal to keep the team in the New York area and leave Nassau County behind. Nassau County used to be progressive. The county used to be a beacon for suburban life. Now, it is woefully behind the times, as its aging population will eventually turn the county into a 453-square mile nursing home.

So, my advice to Wang: peddle the Islanders to Queens, Brooklyn, or Suffolk County and get the best deal you can. You have lost enough money. Nassau County has given you too many gray hairs. You can still keep them in the area, but take them out of Nassau County. Nassau County does not deserve a major-league franchise. The politics have sent the Islanders to the brink in Nassau and the voters just pushed them over the edge. But, that does not mean the Isles are destined for Quebec City, Kansas City, or Hamilton.

Queens has the infrastructure, there is an arena being built for the Nets in Brooklyn, and Suffolk County is now home to many Islander supporters who used to live in Nassau County before they were fed up. Any one of these choices are better than Nassau County. The county never sprung for improvements of their building. The county never installed a rail line. The county never really loved you back, so why bother trying to stay in a place that clearly does not want you?

Sports With The StatMan - Show Notes #164-166 - July 18-23, 2011

2011-07-19T14:25:00.000-04:00

Here are the show notes for this week of shows on Sports With The StatMan. There are audio links to the shows or, if the show is in the future, there is a link to the show preview. If you have comments or questions on the episodes, feel free to leave a comment below.

Show #164 - July 18, 2011 - Baseball Talk - MLB Week 16 (AUDIO)

Open: Back to the Second Half of the baseball season
1:15: A look at the current standings
4:15: Are the Mets contenders?/Phillies-Mets series
8:00: Big injuries for the local teams
20:45: All-Star Game Recap/Derek Jeter controversy
27:45: Jeter's 3,000th hit
30:00: Upcoming episodes
33:00: Red Sox-Orioles altercation
36:15: Upcoming local schedules
39:45: Mets try to stay afloat as Reyes and Wright return
42:00: Around the League: Thome and the Twins
42:45: Upcoming episodes/How to Find the Show/Close

Show #165 - July 20, 2011 - Baseball Talk - Trade Deadline Preview (SHOW PREVIEW)

Show #166 – July 23, 2011 - Fantasy Weekend - MLB Week 16 (SHOW PREVIEW)

SHOW INFORMATION

· Show Page - http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan

· iTunes - Search "Sports With The StatMan"

· Follow the show on Twitter - http://twitter.com/gstatman

· Random Musings blog - http://gstatman.blogspot.com

· Sports With The StatMan: Extra - http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman

NEXT SHOWS

Here is what is going on next week on Sports With The StatMan:

Upcoming episodes:

Sports With The StatMan #167: Monday night, July 25th, 2011 at 11pm ET

MLB: Week 17

Sports With The StatMan #168: Wednesday night, July 27th, 2011 at 11pm ET

NFL: Where We Left Off/Free Agent Frenzy

Sports With The StatMan #169: Saturday morning, July 30th, 2011 at 11am ET

MLB: Fantasy Weekend Week 17

All of that and more on Sports With The StatMan next week. For the latest show schedules, log on to the show page at www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan and follow the show on Twitter (twitter.com/gstatman).

Fantasy Weekend - MLB Week 14

2011-07-15T09:19:00.001-04:00

Although the weekend was last weekend, the All-Star Break lasts until Thursday night, so this gives fantasy owners an extra three days to survey the baseball landscape and take a deep breath before the final quarter of the 20-week fantasy baseball regular season. Since we did not have a Fantasy Weekend show this past weekend, here is the blog for the games of July 2-10:

(Legend: O/S: Owned and started in CBSSports.com fantasy leagues, SB/O: stolen bases/opportunities, hitter "slash" numbers: batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage, pitcher "slash" numbers: earned run average/walks+hits per inning pitched)

WEEKLY BEST
HITTERS
1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury BOS - 55
2. LF Jose Bautista TOR - 50
3. 2B Dustin Pedroia BOS - 49

PITCHERS
1. SP CC Sabathia NYY - 78
2. SP Dan Haren LAA - 77
3. SP Jered Weaver LAA - 64

LOCAL LEADERS
HITTERS
1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury BOS - .447/.512/.816, 17-38, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 7 R, 4 2B, 2 3B, 5 BB, 3 K, 3/3 SB/O (55 pts)
Season: .316/.377/.490, 11 HR, 49 RBI, 62 R, 26 2B, 28/38 SB/O, 302 pts
2. 2B Dustin Pedroia BOS - .378/.452/.784, 14-37, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 12 R, 3 2B, 5 BB, 4 K (49 pts)
Season: .284/.395/.442, 11 HR, 44 RBI, 59 R, 19 2B, 16/19 SB/O, 289 pts
3. 1B Kevin Youkilis BOS - .452/.500/.807, 14-31, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 6 R, 5 2B, BB, 4 K (38 pts)
Season: .285/.399/.512, 13 HR, 63 RBI, 52 R, 26 2B, 49 BB, 68 K, 249 pts

PITCHERS
1. SP CC Sabathia NYY - 2-0, 2 QS, CG, ShO, 0.00/0.75, 16 IP, 9 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 20 K (78 pts)
Season: 13-4, 2.72/1.16, 145.2 IP, 134 H, 35 BB, 126 K, 350 pts
2. SP Cole Hamels PHL - 2-0, 2 QS, 1.69/0.88, 16 IP, 11 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 11 K (52 pts)
Season: 11-4, 2.32/0.93, 132 IP, 99 H, 24 BB, 121 K, 378 pts
3. SP Roy Halladay PHL - 1-0, 2 QS, CG, 2.81/0.94, 16 IP, 14 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 15 K (46 pts)
Season: 11-3, 2.45/1.02, 143.1 IP, 129 H, 17 BB, 138 K, 406 pts

LINES OF THE WEEK
HITTERS
1. LF Melky Cabrera KCY - 4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 4 R, 1 2B, 1 HP (21 pts) (7/3 at COL)
2. SS Hanley Ramirez FLA - 3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 R (16 pts) (7/2 at TEX)
3. CF Torii Hunter LAA - 3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 R, 1 K (15 pts) (7/9 vs SEA)

PITCHERS
1. SP Dan Haren LAA - 2-hit CG ShO W, 0 BB, 9 K (48 pts) (7/5 vs DET)
2. SP CC Sabathia NYY - 4-hit CG ShO W, 1 BB, 9 K (45 pts) (7/10 vs TBY)
3. SP Derek Holland TEX - 4-hit CG ShO W, 2 BB, 7 K (42 pts) (7/7 vs OAK)

STOCK UP
HITTERS
1. OF Nate Schierholtz SFO - O/S: 8/6, .293/.343/.464, 7 HR, 31 RBI, 30 R, 5 SB, 148 pts
last 13 GP: .431/.482/.667, 22-51, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 9 R, 3 2B, 5 BB, 6 K, 53 pts
2. 3B Emilio Bonifacio FLA - O/S: 36/30, .285/.356/.382, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 37 R, 16/20 SB/O, 145 pts
last 11 GP: .429/.510/.500, 18-42, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 12 R, 3 2B, 11/12 SB/O, 55 pts
3. 1B Freddie Freeman ATL - O/S: 82/61 (+18/+19 f/LW), .274/.347/.459, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 39 R, 171 pts
last 8 GP: .345/.441/.793, 10-29, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 5 R, 2 2B, 5 BB, 6 K, 36 pts

PITCHERS
1. SP Jeff Karstens PIT - O/S: 50/27, 7-4, 2.55/1.07, 98.2 IP, 88 H, 18 BB, 58 K, 210 pts
last 7 GS: 4-0, 1.49/0.85, 7 QS, 48.1 IP, 34 H, 8 ER, 7 BB, 18 K, 137 pts
2. SP Justin Masterson CLE - O/S: 91/59 (+4/+18 f/LW), 7-6, 2.64/1.22, 122.2 IP, 111 H, 39 BB, 87 K, 245 pts
last 6 GS: 2-2, 1.50/1.07, 5 QS, 42 IP, 34 H, 7 ER, 11 BB, 28 K, 104 pts
3. SP Brian Duensing MIN - O/S: 36/25, 6-7, 4.13/1.42, 102.1 IP, 109 H, 36 BB, 70 K, 128 pts
last 5 GS: 3-1, 2.41/1.19, 4 QS, 33.2 IP, 28 H, 9 ER, 12 BB, 22 K, 84 pts

STOCK DOWN
HITTERS
1. 1B Justin Smoak SEA - O/S: 73/40 (-7/-10 f/LW), .229/.327/.418, 12 HR, 43 RBI, 20 2B, 158 pts
last 16 GP: .073/.150/.109, 4-55, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, 2 2B, 4 BB, 16 K, 0 pts
2. RF Jayson Werth WSH - O/S: 97/57, .215/.319/.362, 10 HR, 31 RBI, 40 R, 16 2B, 11/14 SB/O, 162 pts
last 16 GP: .123/.219/.140, 7-57, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 4 R, 1 2B, 6 BB, 21 K, 0 pts
3. RF Bobby Abreu LAA - O/S: 92/71, .277/.394/.363, 3 HR, 35 RBI, 34 R, 18 2B, 13/16 SB/O, 188 pts
last 16 GP: .191/.345/.426, 9-47, 6 R, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 1 2B, 11 BB, 14 K, 19 pts

PITCHERS
1. RP Francisco Cordero CIN - O/S: 87/73, 3-3, 17/22 SV/O, 2.95/1.08, 39.2 IP, 15 BB, 27 K, 201 pts
last 4 APP: 0-2, 3 BS, 3.1 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 4 BB, 1 K, -31 pts
2. SP Gavin Floyd CHW - O/S: 80/47 (-4/-5 f/LW), 6-9, 4.59/1.26, 111.2 IP, 111 H, 30 BB, 80 K, 120 pts
last 8 GS: 1-5, 44.1 IP, 54 H, 30 ER, 14 BB, 24 K, -8 pts
3. SP Kyle Lohse STL - O/S: 90/49 (-3/-14 f/LW), 8-6, 3.32/1.06, 122 IP, 107 H, 22 BB, 63 K, 215 pts
last 7 GS: 1-4, 41.2 IP, 48 H, 26 ER, 7 BB, 16 K, -1 pt

HOT PICK-UPS
HITTERS
1. 3B Emilio Bonifacio FLA - O/S: 36/30, .285/.356/.382, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 37 R, 16/20 SB/O, 145 pts
last 11 GP: .429/.510/.500, 18-42, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 12 R, 3 2B, 11/12 SB/O, 55 pts
2. OF Nate Schierholtz SFO - O/S: 8/6, .293/.343/.464, 7 HR, 31 RBI, 30 R, 5 SB, 148 pts
last 13 GP: .431/.482/.667, 22-51, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 9 R, 3 2B, 5 BB, 6 K, 53 pts
3. LF Travis Snider TOR - O/S: 42/27, .231/.302/.368, 2 HR, 20 RBI, 13 R, 5 SB, 59 pts
last 7 GP: 11-30, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 6 R, 6 2B, 1 BB, 9 K, 24 pts

PITCHERS
1. SP Brian Duensing MIN - O/S: 36/25, 6-7, 4.13/1.42, 102.1 IP, 109 H, 36 BB, 70 K, 128 pts
last 5 GS: 3-1, 2.41/1.19, 4 QS, 33.2 IP, 28 H, 9 ER, 12 BB, 22 K, 84 pts
2. SP Paul Maholm PIT - O/S: 32/25, 6-9, 2.96/1.18, 121.2 IP, 101 H, 42 BB, 75 K, 206 pts
last 9 GS: 5-2, 2.25/1.05, 60 IP, 46 H, 15 ER, 17 BB, 31 K, 138 pts
3. SP Javier Vazquez FLA - O/S: 27/11, 5-8, 5.23/1.51, 96.1 IP, 111 H, 34 BB, 66 K, 53 pts
last 4 GS: 2-1, 0.72/1.03, 25.1 IP, 25 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 16 K, 75 pts

2011 NHL Free Agency: Predictions

2011-07-01T15:49:00.001-04:00

First of all, welcome to July and one of the single biggest days on the NHL yearly calendar. And, of course, to our friendly neighbors to the north, Happy Canada Day.

On the most recent Sports With The StatMan show (#159) on Wednesday night, we went over the cap space and needs for the local teams:

LOCAL NEEDS
BOS: A puck-moving defenseman to possibly replace Tomas Kaberle
NJD: Defense, defense, defense (they still need defense even if Adam Larsson makes the team in '11-12)
NYI: A top-four defenseman and a top-six forward
NYR: A playmaking centerman and an offensive defenseman
PHL: Find a center to offset losses of Jeff Carter and Mike Richards

It is about 12:00 on July 1st -- high noon -- as the General Managers and free agents start getting down to business. Some teams have to reach the floor (see: Islanders) and others have money to spend (see: Flyers, Rangers). Add to that a dearth of big names and lots of money will be spent on relatively few players. Also, as we discussed on Wednesday's show, we talked about the very real possibility of an offer sheet being sent to a restricted free agent this year. There has only been one successful poaching since the lockout, Dustin Penner in 2007, but Steven Stamkos, Drew Doughty, Keith Yandle, and Andrew Ladd headline those RFAs.

On Wednesday's show, we discussed our unscientific ranking system. Yes, we could use fantasy points, and that will be the tiebreaker within tiers of free agents, but I arranged my rankings in tiers. Instead of calling these tiers by numbers, in the spirit of Hockey Christmas, we have assigned a present to each tier.

10 TIERS OF FREE AGENTS
Top-Tier: Caribbean cruise (or a trip to '70s game show fave Beautiful Puerto Vallarta)
2nd Tier: Video game (such as NHL '12, with RFA Steven Stamkos on the cover)
3rd Tier: A new bike (who wouldn't want a new bike...that is, if you are under the age of 16)
4th Tier: A great book (perhaps The Rebel League by Ed Willes, which is a fantastic book)
5th Tier: Christmas CD (useless gift for the 330 days between Christmas Day and the next Christmas season)
6th Tier: Ugly sweater (Cosby sweaters may apply)
7th Tier: A year-long enrollment in the Jelly of the Month Club (it is a gift that keeps on giving the whole year)
8th Tier: School supplies (a few minutes late and likely many dollars short)
9th Tier: An array of meat snacks from Hickory Farms (tasty for about 5 minutes, forgotten in about 10 minutes)
10th Tier: Socks and/or underwear (should be renamed the Jon Sim Tier)

So, through that prism, here are the local teams' needs:
BOS: A new bike (puck-moving defenseman)
NJD: A new bike and a great book (defensemen)
NYI: Two great books (a top-four defenseman and a top-six forward)
NYR: A Caribbean cruise and a video game (playmaking center and offensive defenseman)
PHL: A new bike (a top-two center)

FREE AGENT RANKINGS
Caribbean Cruise tier: G Tomas Vokoun, F Brad Richards
Video Game tier: D Tomas Kaberle
New Bike tier: F Ville Leino, F Erik Cole, F Tomas Fleischmann
Great Book tier: F Teemu Selanne, F Matt D'Agostini, F Michael Ryder, F Simon Gagne, F Scottie Upshall, F Joel Ward, F Sean Bergenheim, D Ed Jovanovski, D Andy Greene
Christmas CD tier: D Anton Babchuk, F Radim Vrbata, F Andrew Brunette, D Ian White, F Michal Handzus, F Vinnie Prospal, F Ruslan Fedotenko, F Raffi Torres, D Jan Hejda, F Jamie Langenbrunner, D Sean O'Donnell, D Scott Hannan
Ugly Sweater tier (not a complete list): G Jose Theodore, G Brian Boucher, D Bryan McCabe, F Tim Connolly, F Sergei Samsonov, F Cory Stillman, F Christopher Higgins, F Jason Arnott, D Radek Martinek, F Max Talbot
Jelly of the Month Club tier (not a complete list): F Brendan Morrison, D Roman Hamrlik, G Peter Budaj, G Marty Turco, F John Madden, F Alexander Frolov, D David Hale, F Ben Eager, F Cody McCormick, F Brad Winchester
School Supplies tier (not a complete list): G Johan Hedberg, F Marty Reasoner, G Mathieu Garon, F Alex Kovalev, F Kyle Wellwood, D Karlis Skrastins, D Steve Eminger, F Zenon Konopka
Meat Snacks tier (not a complete list): G Curtis McElhinney, G Martin Gerber, F Eric Godard, F Cam Janssen
Socks/Underwear tier: G Nathan Lawson, F Todd White, G Patrick Lalime, F Mike Comrie

FREE AGENT LOCAL PREDICTIONS
BOS: D Bryan McCabe
NJD: D Andy Greene*, D Anton Babchuk
NYI: F Joel Ward, D Radek Martinek*
NYR: F Brad Richards, D Tomas Kaberle
PHL: F Ville Leino*, F Eric Belanger
* - retained by their 2010-11 NHL club

Source for salary cap information: capgeek.com

2011 NHL Entry Draft: Predictions

2011-06-24T19:31:00.002-04:00

Every year, there are a few top names that normally go according to form. This season will probably not be much different, though the order of those players from 1 through 4 may not be exact. In John Tavares's draft year, it was about the big three of Tavares, Victor Hedman, and Matt Duchene. Last year, the forward tandem of Taylor Hall and (Stanley Cup Champion) Tyler Seguin were all the rage. This year, there are three forwards and a defenseman that are around the top.

This is great news for the New Jersey Devils, who pick fourth, and less so for the New York Islanders, who select fifth, if they elect to make their selections. There is always the possibility of trading the pick to move up, down, or out of the first round. The Islanders could speed up their rebuild by trading down in some sort of package and, for the Devils, salary cap relief is mighty important to them if they want to be able afford to sign Zach Parise before arbitration or afford the award without breaking up the team.

In most publications and prognostications, with available time and money to watch these superteens play, have the top four pegged, in some order, as forwards Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Sean Couturier, Gabriel Landeskog, and defenseman Adam Larsson.

My picks for the first five selections:
1. Edmonton - C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2. Colorado - D Adam Larsson
3. Florida - LW Gabriel Landeskog
4. DEVILS - D Dougie Hamilton
5. ISLANDERS - F Sean Couturier
8. FLYERS - F Ryan Strome
9. BRUINS - D Ryan Murphy
15. RANGERS - RW Tyler Biggs

Fantasy Weekend - MLB Week 9

2011-06-05T23:34:00.000-04:00

Each week on our Fantasy Weekend show (Saturday mornings, 11am ET), we look back on the last seven days and reveal our picks for the best of the past week. Our regular installments of the Weekly Best, the Lines of the Week, our Stock Up/Stock Down segment, as well as Local Leaders for the four local teams we cover (Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, and Mets).

Listen to the podcast (Sports With The StatMan - No. 148) for all of this and more, including a look at injuries around baseball, and a look at the upcoming week with two-start pitchers and a look at next week’s schedule.

This post covers the past seven days leading up to the Saturday morning show from Saturday, May 28th and Friday, June 3rd.

WEEKLY BEST
HITTERS
#1. RF Nelson Cruz TEX – 39 points
#2. RF Justin Upton ARZ – 37 points
#3. 1B Mike Napoli TEX – 36 points

PITCHERS
#1. SP Jered Weaver LAA – 57 points
#2. RP Heath Bell SDG – 56 points
#3. SP Cole Hamels PHL – 50 points

LINES OF THE WEEK
HITTERS
#1. 1B Aubrey Huff SFO - 4-5, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 3 R (22 pts) (6/2 at STL)
#2. C Chris Iannetta COL - 4-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 R (18 pts) (5/28 vs STL)
#3. RF Justin Upton ARZ - 5-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R, 1 2B, 1 SB (17 pts) (5/30 vs FLA)

PITCHERS
#1. SP Clayton Kershaw LAD - 2-hit CG ShO W, 1 BB, 10 K (48 pts) (5/29 vs FLA)
#2. SP Ubaldo Jimenez COL - 4-hit CG ShO W, 0 BB, 7 K (44 pts) (5/30 at LAD)
#3. SP Bartolo Colon NYY - 4-hit CG ShO W, 0 BB, 6 K (43 pts) (5/30 at OAK)

STOCK UP
HITTERS
#1. RF Endy Chavez TEX – O/S: 0%/0%, .435/.469/.696, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 3 SB, 11 R, 46 AB (54 pts); last 11 GP: 20-37, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 4 2B, 1 3B, 11 R, 55 pts (6 5-pt games)
#2. CF Rajai Davis TOR – O/S: 56%/45%, .288/.323/.418, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 16/23 SB/O, 24 R, 153 AB (97 pts); last 22 GP: 32-87, HR, 12 RBI, 14 R, 8 2B, 3 3B, 9/14 SB/O, 71 pts (10 multi-hit games)
#3. OF Juan Pierre CHW – O/S: 68%/48%, .261/.329/.313, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 10/18 SB/O, 28 R, 230 AB (118 pts); last 8 GP: 9-34, HR, 5 RBI, 9 R, 1 3B, 5 BB, 3 K, 3 SB, 36 pts

PITCHERS
#1. SP Josh Collmenter ARZ – O/S: 26%/15%, 4-1, 1.25/0.67, 43.1 IP, 24 H, 5 BB, 26 K (136 pts); as a starter (5 GS): 3-1, 29.1 IP, 16 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 15 K, 94 pts
#2. SP Philip Humber CHW – O/S: 31%/14%, 4-3, 3.06/0.98, 67.2 IP, 52 H, 14 BB, 38 K (132 pts); last 7 GS: 49.1 IP, 33 H, 14 ER, 9 BB, 27 K, 118 pts
#3. SP Kevin Correia PIT – O/S: 51%/23%, 8-4, 3.40/1.20, 76.2 IP, 75 H, 17 BB, 34 K (135 pts); last 3 GS: 3-0, 20 IP, 17 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 10 K, 61 pts

STOCK DOWN
HITTERS
#1. 2B Dan Uggla ATL – O/S: 98%/78%, .172/.242/.312, 7 HR, 16 RBI, 215 AB (74 pts); last 13 GP: 3-43, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R, 2 BB, 8 K, minus-1 pt
#2. 1B Adam Dunn CHW – O/S: 97%/70%, .182/.327/.324, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 72 K, 176 AB (59 pts); last 20 GP: 9-68, HR, 7 RBI, 4 R, 3 2B, 14 BB, 32 K, 7 pts (11 “minus” GP)
#3. RF Nick Markakis BAL – O/S: 96%/82%, .239/.305/.311, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 4 SB, 222 AB (106 pts); last 15 GP: 14-63, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 6 R, 5 BB, 10 K, 1 SB, 19 pts (5 GP of 0 pts or fewer)

PITCHERS
#1. RP Joakim Soria KCY – O/S: 90%/71%, 3-3, 7 SV, 6.00/1.54, 24 IP, 19 K (64 pts); since 5/22 (6 APP): 0-3, 0/3 SV/O, 6.1 IP, 12 H, 7 K, minus-24 pts
#2. RP Carlos Marmol CHC – O/S: 95%/87%, 1-2, 10 SV, 3.33/1.32, 24.1 IP, 32 K (121 pts); since 5/19 (6 APP): 0-1, 1/2 SV/O, 5.1 IP, 9 H, 4 BB, 7 K, minus-4 pts
#3. SP Justin Masterson CLE – O/S: 94%/66%, 5-4, 3.28/1.31, 79.2 IP, 58 K (138 pts); since 5/12 (5 GS): 0-4, 32.2 IP, 35 H, 14 BB, 24 K, 9 pts

HOT PICK-UPS
HITTERS
#1. OF Corey Patterson TOR – O/S: 24%/20%, .285/.314/.446, 4 HR, 27 RBI, 7 SB, 193 AB (113 pts); last 6 GP: 11-29, 17 TB, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 28 pts
#2. OF Josh Willingham OAK – O/S: 33%/24%, .250/.327/.467, 10 HR, 37 RBI, 184 AB (110 pts); last 7 GP: 10-27, 23 TB, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 31 pts
#3. 1B Ty Wigginton COL – O/S: 22%/11%, .254/.308/.459, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 122 AB, 1B/3B/OF elig. (71 pts); last 5 GP: 6-17, 15 TB, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 17 pts

PITCHERS
#1. RP Aaron Crow KCY – New CL (Soria); O/S: 11%/6%; 2-0, 1.33/1.04, 27 IP, 26 K (93 pts); last 8 APP: 2 HD, 10.2 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 10 K, 32 pts
#2. SP Dillon Gee NYM – O/S: 20%/15%; 5-0, 3.83/1.15, 47 IP, 37 K (95 pts); last 3 GS: 3-0, 20.2 IP, 11 H, 7 ER, 5 BB, 15 K, 62 pts
#3. SP Jordan Lyles HOU – 1st ML start: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K (17 pts)

LOCAL LEADERS
HITTERS
#1. DH David Ortiz BOS – .474/.524/1.053, 9-19, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 2 2B (32 pts)
#2. SS Derek Jeter NYY – .318/.467/.409, 7-22, RBI, 2 2B, 6 BB, 0 K, 2 SB (27 pts)
#3. SS Jose Reyes NYM – .529/.556/.941, 9-17, RBI, 2B, 3 3B, 2 SB (25 pts) (Cano 25 pts, 8-25, 2 HR)

PITCHERS
#1. SP Cole Hamels PHL – 1-0, 2 QS, 1.80/0.73, 15 IP, 8 H, 3 BB, 14 K (50 pts)
#2. SP Bartolo Colon NYY – 4-hit CG ShO W, 0 BB, 6 K (43 pts)
#3. SP Jonathon Niese BOS – 1-0, 2 QS, 1.29/1.29, 14 IP, 13 H, 5 BB, 13 K (42 pts)

Key – O/S: Owned/Starting in CBS Sports fantasy leagues; “minus” GP: a game in which a player scored negative fantasy points; statistics are season totals unless otherwise noted

Check Out The Mets Banter

2011-02-08T14:21:00.000-05:00

As we turn our attention from football to the upcoming baseball season, I wanted to give all of the Mets fans out there a website to add to their blogroll.

The Mets Banter is a blog that takes an irreverent look at the Mets. Now entering its second season, it is a great place to read about what it is like to bleed blue and orange 162 games a year. You will not find game previews or reviews on a regular basis. What you will find is passionate editorials from real fans. If the names Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, or Aaron Heilman get your blood boiling, you should definitely look in on these guys.

Wills Gillan, a contributor on Sports With The StatMan, heads up the writing staff. Wills and his writers offer straight talk, positive or negative, about the Mets. Warning: the language can be R-rated at times, but you have to let them vent…it is tough to be a Met fan.

Sports With The StatMan - Show Notes: January 31-February 5

2011-02-05T16:54:00.000-05:00

This was a big week in the nearly two-year history of Sports With The StatMan, as we transitioned from a weekly 60-to-90 minute show into three 30-minute shows per week. To start this off, we will have baseball talk on Mondays, hockey talk on Wednesdays, and football chatter for the next couple of Saturdays with the division-by-division outlook to follow on Saturdays starting on February 19th. It is a new format and I hope you enjoy it, whether you join me live or on the podcast.

The episodes from this week are below. I will try to add a blog post each week to give you a little more detail about each episode. There is a link to the podcast of each show under the title of each show, followed by information on how to find the show, how to interact with the show, and a look at next week’s shows.

This Week:
SWTS #97: Baseball - 2011 StatMan Fantasy Preview: Catchers
(Monday, January 31^st, 11:00-11:30pm ET) (Show Audio)

00:00: Open/Introduction
03:00: Catchers - Importance of position
06:30: Hot Stove - Signings and Rumors
11:00: Top 20: #1-#5
21:30: Top 20: #6-#10
25:15: Top 20: #11-#20
28:00: Sleeper and Supersleeper
28:45: Pairings
29:30: Close

SWTS #98: Hockey - NHL Week 17
(Wednesday, February 2^nd, 11:00-11:30pm ET) (Show Audio)

00:00: Open/Introduction
01:45: Islanders - DiPietro tomfoolery against Penguins
09:30: Devils and Rangers - Leading up to their clash at the Garden
11:30: Devils - Confusion about rumor about Devils sale
13:30: Islanders - Poor attendance leads to great ticket offers
20:30: More Devils-Rangers preview
26:00: All-Star Weekend Recap - Tim Thomas, Michael Grabner, Zdeno Chara
29:00: Close

SWTS #99: Football - Super Bowl XLV Preview
(Saturday, 2/5, 11:00-11:30am ET) (Show Audio)

00:00: Open/Introduction
00:30: Super Bowl XLV Scene Setter
03:15: This Week on Sports With The StatMan
03:45: Baseball – Andy Pettitte officially retires, Clemens, Hall of Fame chances
10:30: Hockey – DiPietro out 4-6 weeks after fight
12:30: Super Bowl Preview – Big Ben vs. Rodgers, Position-by-position breakdown
23:00: Super Bowl Pick and Prediction
23:45: NFL Fantasy Update – Conference Championship
26:45: Next Week – Sports With The StatMan
27:30: Super Bowl Preview – Common Opponents
29:30: Close

How to Find the Show:

Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search “Sports With The StatMan”

How to Interact with the Show:

Leave me a tweet on Twitter (@gstatman)
Leave a comment on the Show Page
Leave a comment on the Random Musings blog
Rate the show and write a review on iTunes

Next Week:

#100: Baseball – 2011 StatMan Fantasy Baseball Preview: First Basemen (Episode Page)
#101: Hockey – NHL Week 18 (Episode Page)
#102: Football – 2010 NFL Season In Review (Episode Page)

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks and Predictions

2011-01-08T17:38:00.002-05:00

The second season has begun in the NFL. Let's look back on how we did during the regular season.

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 17 results in parentheses)

Picks - Straight Up: 164-92 (.641) (13-3 in Week 17)
Picks - Against The Spread: 130-118-8 (.523) (10-6 in Week 17)
Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 7 after Week 17 (11-6, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND, NO, PIT, ATL, JAX, GBY; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE, TBY, DAL)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 30-18-3 (.618) (2-1 in Week 16: QB (W, 12-5): K. Kolb PHL 4, T. Tebow DEN 29; RB (W, 9-6-2): R. Mathews SDG 35, K. Moreno DEN 4; WR (W, 9-7-1): J. Avant PHL 2, J. Knox CHI 0)

EXTRA AUDIO
Sports With The StatMan: Football Edition - Week 17 Fantasy Update
Sports With The StatMan: Football Edition - Wild Card Weekend Picks and Predictions

WILD CARD GAME PICKS
New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Seattle Seahawks (7-9)
Saturday, 4:30pm ET - NBC
Sheridan's Line: Saints by 10

Breakdown: The Saints RB tandem of Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory are both on IR, leaving the Saints without a RB who has scored a rushing touchdown in Reggie Bush and Julius Jones. That and the Seattle home-field advantage should be enough to cover the spread, but the Saints will find a way to win with Drew Brees and that dynamite passing attack.

X-Factor: Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck
Picks: Straight Up - Saints; Against the Spread - Seahawks
Predicted Score: NO 24, SEA 17

New York Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
Saturday, 8:00pm ET - NBC
Sheridan's Line: Colts by 3

Breakdown: The Jets have a chance for revenge after losing last year's AFC Championship Game in Indianapolis. The Colts are missing some major pieces like TE Dallas Clark, WR Austin Collie, and S Bob Sanders. TE Jacob Tamme picked up where Clark left off, but he is no Clark. The other replacements are not as good, either. The Jets have to run the ball right at the Colts on offense and try to make QB Peyton Manning think quickly while the defense is on the field. I think the Jets will pull even with the Colts offense and make the defensive plays when they have to in order to win.

X-Factor: Indianapolis TE Jacob Tamme
Picks: Straight up - Jets; Against the Spread - Jets
Predicted Score: NYJ 30, IND 27

Baltimore Ravens (12-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
Sunday, 1:00pm ET - CBS
Sheridan's Line: Ravens by 3

Breakdown: The Chiefs lost their first game at home all season last week against the Raiders. The Chiefs are also New England West with a few players and coaches having Patriots ties, which would serve them well in the playoffs. But, the Ravens have won in the Wild Card round each of the last two years with an average of 30 points scored.

X-Factor: Kansas City WR Dwayne Bowe
Picks: Straight up - Ravens; Against the Spread - Ravens
Predicted Score: BAL 19, KCY 14

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
Sunday, 4:30pm - FOX
Sheridan's Line: Eagles by 2.5

Breakdown: This game is a rematch of the Week 1 game when the Packers opened the season with a victory at Philadelphia. Kevin Kolb won the quarterback job in camp and left with an injury before halftime. Michael Vick almost led a comeback, but the Eagles fell short. This time around, the Eagles have a lot more confidence, not only because of Vick, but because of the rest of the team. It will be a different game with a different outcome.

X-Factor: Philadelphia WR DeSean Jackson's ankle
Picks: Straight up - Eagles; Against the Spread - Eagles
Predicted Score: PHL 30, GBY 24

***

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#94) on Wednesday night, January 12th, at 9pm ET. We recap the Jets-Colts and Eagles-Packers games and get ready for the Divisional Championship round. We will also have our NHL Midseason Report.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"
Extra audio available at: http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman

Who Will Play in the 2012 Winter Classic?

2011-01-06T14:14:00.000-05:00

Who will play in the 2012 Winter Classic? All signs are pointing to the New York Rangers having one of the slots and it is about time the Classic comes to New York. Let’s look at the prerequisites to host a Winter Classic.

First, it should be an American city. Canada now has their Heritage Classic, which is played on the Sunday before Family Day in Canada, which is also the day before President’s Day in the United States. With a major television network carrying the event in the U.S., the game has to have a decidedly American flavor. New York, last time I checked, was in the lower 48.

Second, the city should be a cold-weather city. The NHL’s refrigeration truck is a marvel, but I do not think the technology is there to withstand 70 degree temperatures. If you looked at the ice in Pittsburgh last Sunday night, the rain and the above freezing temperatures made for a watery mess for some of the third period. The backdrop of palm trees would be nice, but it would not be practical.

Next, the game should involve a big market team to maximize viewership. There is no bigger market than New York. Three of the four American teams that comprise the Original Six have already been represented in the game: Chicago, Detroit, and Boston. Two of those three – Chicago and Boston – have hosted the game.

Who would the Rangers play? Regional rivalries may not play as well to a national audience. For all of the talk about ratings and big markets, the NHL has done very well with Washington-Pittsburgh, Philadelphia-Boston, Detroit-Chicago, and Pittsburgh-Buffalo, which can all be termed regional rivalries in the Northeast or the Great Lakes areas. So, maybe we shouldn’t discount a Rangers-Devils or Rangers-Islanders game on the grand stage. If not, the Rangers could go up against just about any other team. How about an Original Six-Next Six East-West matchup with the Rangers and Kings? The idea of the two biggest media markets coming together to help a sports league that could use all of the press it can get could push this matchup over the top.

Since the Canadiens are in this year’s Heritage Classic, the only Original Six team that has not played outside or booked to play outside would be the Toronto Maple Leafs. So, would a Leafs-Rangers game be that far-fetched? The Leafs were so hard up for the outdoor experience, the Leafs held a practice outside in a city park. The Bruins played in last year’s Winter Classic, but that has not stopped the NHL from tapping the Penguins twice. Then again, Zdeno Chara and Tyler Seguin do not quite have the same cachet as Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. But, the Bruins and Rangers are rivals for the better part of a century.

Whether the game would be in the friendly confines of Citi Field or, more likely, the vast expanse of the New Meadowlands Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, the New York area would be a perfect host for next year’s Winter Classic.

Week 17 NFL Picks and Predictions

2011-01-02T14:21:00.000-05:00

Happy New Year everyone! Week 17 normally has a preseason feel to some of the games before the most important ones of the NFL season start up next weekend.

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 16 results in parentheses)

Picks - Straight Up: 151-89 (.629) (10-6 in Week 16)
Picks - Against The Spread: 120-112-8 (.517) (11-5 in Week 16)
Knockout Pool - Out in Round 6 after Week 16 (10-6, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND, NO, PIT, ATL, JAX; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE, TBY, DAL)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 28-17-3 (.615) (2-1 in Week 16: QB (W, 12-4): T. Tebow DEN 24, E. Manning NYG 23; RB (L, 8-6-2): B. Green-Ellis NE 10, M. Forte CHI 22; WR (W, 8-7-1): M. Williams TBY 14, C. Ochocinco CIN 0)

WEEK 17 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)

Locals: NYG (W at WSH), NYJ (W vs. BUF), PHL (W vs. DAL), NE (W vs. MIA)
Big Game Winners: STL (at SEA), IND (vs. TEN), GBY (vs. CHI)
Other Winners: PIT (at CLE), BAL (vs. CIN), NO (vs. TBY), ATL (vs. CAR), DET (vs. MIN), OAK (at KCY), HOU (vs. JAX), SFO (vs. ARZ), SDG (at DEN)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NYG (-3.5 at WSH), NYJ (-1 vs. BUF), DAL (+10 at PHL), NE (-4 vs. MIA)
Big Game Covers: STL (-2.5 at SEA), TEN (+9.5 at IND), GBY (-10 vs. CHI)
Other Covers: CLE (+6 vs. PIT), CIN (+9.5 at BAL), TBY (+8 at NO), CAR (+14.5 at ATL), DET (-3 vs. MIN), OAK (+3.5 at KCY), HOU (-3 vs. JAX), ARZ (+6 at SFO), SDG (-3.5 at DEN)

Knockout Pool

Round 7: Green Bay (vs. Chicago)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Kevin Kolb PHL (vs. DAL), Sit Tim Tebow DEN (vs. SDG)
RB: Start Ryan Mathews SDG (at DEN), Sit Knowshon Moreno DEN (vs. SDG)
WR: Start Jason Avant PHL (vs. DAL), Sit Johnny Knox CHI (at GBY)

***

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#93) for our first show of 2011 on Wednesday night, January 5th, at 9pm ET. We gear up for the NFL Playoffs with a recap of Week 17 and a preview of Wild Card Weekend. We know the Eagles and Jets will be in action and the Patriots will get a week off to rest up, but will the Giants be in action or watch the playoffs from their couches? We also chat about hockey and baseball.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"
Extra audio available at: http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman

Week 16 NFL Picks and Predictions

2010-12-24T11:31:00.000-05:00

Merry Christmas everybody! Here are the picks and predictions for Week 16 in the NFL:

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 15 results in parentheses)

Picks - Straight Up: 141-83 (.631) (9-7 in Week 15)
Picks - Against The Spread: 109-107-8 (.504) (10-6 in Week 15)
Knockout Pool - Out in Round 5 after Week 15 (10-5, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND, NO, PIT, ATL, JAX; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE, TBY)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 26-16-3 (.611) (2-1 in Week 15: QB (W, 11-4): K. Collins TEN 15, R. Fitzpatrick BUF 19; RB (W, 8-5-2): D. McFadden OAK 13, L. McCoy PHL 7; WR (W, 7-7-1): S. Moss WSH 17, M. Sims-Walker JAX 12)

WEEK 16 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)

Locals: NYG (W at GBY), NYJ (L at CHI), PHL (W vs. MIN), NE (W at BUF)
Big Game Winners: NO (at ATL), SFO (at STL), IND (at OAK)
Other Winners: PIT (vs. CAR), DAL (at ARZ), DET (at MIA), BAL (at CLE), JAX (vs. WSH), KCY (vs. TEN), TBY (vs. SEA), DEN (vs. HOU), SDG (at CIN)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NYG (+3 at GBY), CHI (-1 vs. NYJ), PHL (-14 vs. MIN), NE (-8 at BUF)
Big Game Covers: NO (+2 at ATL), SFO (+2 at STL), IND (-2.5 at OAK)
Other Covers: PIT (-14 vs. CAR), ARZ (+6.5 vs. DAL), DET (+3 at MIA), BAL (-3 at CLE), WSH (+7 at JAX), KCY (-4.5 vs. TEN), SEA (+6 at TBY), DEN (+3 vs. HOU), SDG (-7.5 at CIN)

Knockout Pool

Round 6: Dallas (at Arizona)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Tim Tebow DEN (vs. HOU), Sit Eli Manning NYG (at GBY)
RB: Start BenJarvis Green-Ellis NE (at BUF), Sit Matt Forte CHI (vs. NYJ)
WR: Start Mike Williams TBY (vs. SEA), Sit Chad Ochocinco CIN (vs. SDG)

***

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#92) for our last show of 2010 on Thursday night, December 30th, at 9pm ET. We will give out our 1st Annual StatMan Awards, recognizing the top performances, teams, and moves for the local teams in the New York, Boston, and Philadelphia areas, as well as the best of the year in fantasy sports and more. We will also recap Week 16 in the NFL and the round-robin of NHL games between the Rangers, Devils, and Islanders.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
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Extra audio available at: http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman

Week 15 NFL Picks and Predictions

2010-12-19T20:20:00.001-05:00

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 14 results in parentheses)

Picks - Straight Up: 132-76 (.635) (12-4 in Week 14)
Picks - Against The Spread: 99-101-8 (.495) (5-10-1 in Week 14)
Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 5 after Week 14 (10-4, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND, NO, PIT, ATL, JAX; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE, TBY)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 24-15-3 (.607) (2-1 in Week 14: QB (W, 11-3): A. Smith SFO 37, D. Stanton DET 10; RB (W, 7-5-2): K. Moreno DEN 15, T. Choice DAL 2; WR (L, 6-7-1): A. Boldin BAL 4, C. Johnson DET 5)

WEEK 15 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)

Locals: NYG (L vs. PHL), NYJ (L at PIT), PHL (W at NYG), NE (W vs. GBY)
Big Game Winners: BAL (vs. NO), IND (vs. JAX), STL (vs. KCY)
Other Winners: SDG (vs. SFO), MIA (vs. BUF), DAL (vs. WSH), HOU (at TEN), CLE (at CIN), ARZ (at CAR), TBY (vs. DET), ATL (at SEA), OAK (vs. DEN), CHI (at MIN)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: PHL (+3 at NYG), NYJ (+5.5 at PIT), NE (-9 vs. GBY)
Big Game Covers: BAL (-1.5 vs. NO), IND (-5 vs. JAX), STL (+1 vs. KCY)
Other Covers: SDG (-9.5 vs. SFO), BUF (+6 at MIA), DAL (-6.5 vs. WSH), HOU (+1 at TEN), CLE (+1 at CIN), ARZ (+2.5 at CAR), DET (+5.5 at TBY), ATL (-6.5 at SEA), OAK (-6.5 vs. DEN), CHI (+1.5 at MIN)

Knockout Pool

Round 5: Tampa Bay (vs. Detroit)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Kerry Collins TEN (vs. HOU), Sit Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF (at MIA)
RB: Start Darren McFadden (vs. DEN), Sit LeSean McCoy PHL (at NYG)
WR: Start Santana Moss (at DAL), Sit Mike Sims-Walker JAX (at IND)

***

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#91) on Tuesday night, December 21st, at 9pm ET. We will recap the Eagles-Giants slugfest, as Michael Vick and the Eagles will try to win their sixth straight against Eli Manning and the Giants. The Jets are in the middle of the roughest stretch of Mark Sanchez's tenure as quarterback, with a tough schedule and unending scrutiny. Is he able to right the ship? In hockey, Christmas Week will bring about a round-robin for the three New York metro area teams. We'll also take a look at the latest news and rumors in baseball.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
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Extra audio available at: http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman

Week 14 NFL Picks and Predictions

2010-12-12T13:49:00.000-05:00

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 13 results in parentheses)

Picks - Straight Up: 120-72 (.625) (11-5 in Week 13)
Picks - Against The Spread: 94-91-7 (.508) (8-8 in Week 13)
Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 5 after Week 13 (9-4, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND, NO, PIT, ATL; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 22-14-3 (.603) (2-1 in Week 13: QB (W, 10-3): J. Flacco BAL 16, M. Sanchez NYJ 2; RB (W, 6-5-2): D. Woodhead NE 11, S. Greene NYJ 6; WR (L, 6-6-1): J. Ford OAK 4, D. Branch NE 14)

WEEK 14 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)

Locals: NYG (W at MIN), NYJ (W vs. MIA), PHL (W at DAL), NE (W at CHI)
Big Game Winners: JAX (vs. OAK), NO (vs. STL), SDG (vs. KCY)
Other Winners: IND (at TEN), PIT (vs. CIN), GBY (at DET), CLE (at BUF), TBY (at WSH), ATL (at CAR), SFO (vs. SEA), DEN (at ARZ), BAL (at HOU)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NYG (-3 at MIN), NYJ (-5.5 vs. MIA), PHL (-3 at DAL), CHI (+3 vs. NE)
Big Game Covers: JAX (-4.5 vs. OAK), STL (+9.5 at NO), KCY (+7 at SDG)
Other Covers: IND (-3 at TEN), PIT (-9 vs. CIN), GBY (-6.5 at DET), CLE (+1.5 at BUF), TBY (-1.5 at WSH), ATL (-7 at CAR), SEA (+5 at SFO), DEN (-3 at ARZ), BAL (-3 at HOU)

Knockout Pool

Round 5: Jacksonville (vs. Oakland)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Alex Smith SFO (vs. SEA), Sit Drew Stanton DET (vs. GBY)
RB: Start Knowshon Moreno DEN (at ARZ), Sit Tashard Choice DAL (vs. PHL)
WR: Start Anquan Boldin BAL (at HOU), Sit Calvin Johnson DET (vs. GBY)

***

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#90) on Wednesday night, December 15th, at 9pm ET. We will preview the pivotal Eagles-Giants matchup, as well as the rest of the matchups in Week 15. In hockey, how will the Rangers do against some of the best in the NHL and what is with the Flyers and overtime? Plus, will Cliff Lee sign by Wednesday and which team will he pick?

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
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Extra audio available at: http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman

Week 13 NFL Picks and Predictions

2010-12-12T13:15:00.000-05:00

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 12 results in parentheses)

Picks - Straight Up: 109-67 (.619) (11-5 in Week 12)
Picks - Against The Spread: 86-83-7 (.509) (7-9 in Week 12)
Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 5 after Week 12 (8-4, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND, NO, PIT; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 20-13-3 (.597) (1-1-1 in Week 12: QB (W, 9-3): E. Manning NYG 25, D. Garrard JAX 13; RB (L, 5-5-2): M. Lynch SEA 3, F. Jackson BUF 27; WR (P, 6-5-1): S. Rice MIN 2, D. Jackson PHL 2)

WEEK 13 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)

Locals: NYG (W vs. WSH), NYJ (W at NE), PHL (W vs. HOU), NE (L vs. NYJ)
Big Game Winners: ATL (at TBY), PIT (at BAL), TEN (vs. JAX)
Other Winners: MIN (vs. BUF), NO (at CIN), GBY (vs. SFO), KCY (vs. DEN), CLE (at MIA), DET (vs. CHI), SDG (vs. OAK), SEA (vs. CAR), IND (vs. DAL), STL (at ARZ)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NYG (-7 vs. WSH), NYJ (+3 at NE), PHL (-8 vs. HOU)
Big Game Covers: ATL (-3 at TBY), PIT (+3 at BAL), TEN (-3 vs. JAX)
Other Covers: BUF (+5.5 at MIN), NO (-6.5 at CIN), SFO (+9.5 at GBY), DEN (+9 at KCY), CLE (+5 at MIA), DET (+4.5 vs. CHI), SDG (-12.5 vs. OAK), SEA (-6 vs. CAR), IND (-5 vs. DAL), STL (-3 at ARZ)

Knockout Pool

Round 5: Atlanta (at Tampa Bay)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Joe Flacco BAL (vs. PIT), Sit Mark Sanchez NYJ (at NE)
RB: Start Danny Woodhead NE (vs. NYJ), Sit Shonn Greene NYJ (at NE)
WR: Start Jacoby Ford OAK (at SDG), Sit Deion Branch NE (vs. NYJ)

***

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#89) on Wednesday night, December 8th, at 9pm ET. We will recap the Jets-Patriots in their fight for the upper hand in the AFCE East and preview Week 14 around the NFL. In hockey, we will look at the All-Pro injured list. And, we will have the latest updates on free agent movement in baseball.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"
Extra audio available at: http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman

Week 12 NFL Picks and Predictions

2010-11-28T13:16:00.000-05:00

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 11 results in parentheses)

Picks - Straight Up: 98-62 (.616) (10-6 in Week 11)
Picks - Against The Spread: 79-74-7 (.516) (7-9 in Week 11)
Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 5 after Week 11 (7-4, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND, NO; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 19-12-2 (.606) (2-1 in Week 11: QB (W, 8-3): M. Sanchez NYJ 30, M. Cassel KCY 18; RB (L, 5-4-2): C. Benson CIN 17, A. Foster HOU 20; WR (W, 6-5): N. Washington TEN 11, A. Boldin BAL 1)

WEEK 12 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)

Locals: NYG (W vs. JAX), NYJ (vs. CIN), PHL (W at CHI), NE (W at DET)
Big Game Winners: GBY (at ATL), BAL (vs. TBY), SDG (at IND)
Other Winners: NO (at DAL), MIN (at WSH), HOU (vs. TEN), CLE (vs. CAR), PIT (at BUF), SEA (vs. KCY), OAK (vs. MIA), DEN (vs. STL), SFO (at ARZ)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: JAX (+7 at NYG), NYJ (-8.5 vs. CIN), PHL (-3 at CHI), NE (-6.5 at DET)
Big Game Covers: GBY (+1.5 at ATL), TBY (+7.5 at BAL), SDG (+3 at IND)
Other Covers: NO (-3.5 at DAL), MIN (+1 at WSH), TEN (+6.5 at HOU), CLE (-10 vs. CAR), PIT (-6.5 at BUF), SEA (+2 vs. KCY), OAK (+0.5 vs. MIA), DEN (-4 vs. STL), SFO (-1 at BUF)

Knockout Pool

Round 5: Pittsburgh (at Buffalo)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Eli Manning NYG (vs. JAX), Sit David Garrard JAX (at NYG)
RB: Start Marshawn Lynch SEA (vs. KCY), Sit Fred Jackson BUF (vs. PIT)
WR: Start Sidney Rice MIN (at WSH), Sit DeSean Jackson PHL (at CHI)

***

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#88) on Wednesday night, December 1st, at 9pm ET. We will preview the upcoming Jets-Patriots clash in Foxboro, review Week 12, and preview Week 13 around the NFL. In hockey, we will preview all of the local matchups in December. Plus, we will keep the Hot Stove fires burning with news and views on the baseball offseason.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"
Extra audio available at: http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman

Pride vs. Pinstripes

2010-11-24T08:55:00.003-05:00

When Derek Jeter grew up, he was a Yankee fan. When the Yankees drafted him and nurtured him through their farm system, it was a dream come true. The Yankees made him proud and made him rich, to the tune of a reported $205 million over 15 seasons. The 10-year, $189 mega-deal is up and he wants to return. The Yankees want him back. So, what’s the problem?

Jeter wants to return at his price and the Yankees want him to return at their price. There doesn’t seem to be much of a gray area between both offers, at least for now. You can normally tell what happens during a negotiation by the way it is reported in the press. The negotiations have been public, but professional. Brian Cashman added some gas to the fire by tempting Jeter to test the market.

Cashman sounds like a car dealer so sure of the deal he has on the table, he encourages you to test drive other cars and confident you will return and take his deal. But, what Cashman fails to realize is there are 29 teams salivating right now. Everyone knows the Cashman’s proposal and every team is immediately checking their budget to see how much they can offer.
Forget what he is worth. That is no longer material because if it was, Jeter would be offered a 3-year, $30 million deal. The back-end of a larger term would not be good value for the money. It probably will not be the same as the rough time the Mets suffered with the final years of the Pedro Martinez deal.

But, if more years are offered by another team, the reason to getting Jeter would be the same as the Mets’ reasons for signing Pedro Martinez after the 2004 season. The Mets were trying to change a culture and propel themselves forward. Mission accomplished. There are 29 other teams out there that can look at that blueprint as a nice example to why overpaying for intangibles is a good idea. The bump at the gate and the merchandising revenue of a chase to 3,000 hits would more than make up for the extra millions shelled out to bring Jeter to town.

The pride of the player and the organization is at stake for the privilege to wear the pinstripes for the rest of Jeter’s career. The pride of Jeter was evident when he refused to cede the shortstop position to Alex Rodriguez when he came aboard in 2004. Rodriguez’s recent contract extension that takes him through 2017 and age 42 is also guiding Jeter here. The pride of Jeter is coming into play again in this case because he may perceive the three-year deal as a slap in the face if the Yankees did not extend him until 2016, which would be Jeter’s age-42 season. The current deal Cashman is proposing only takes Jeter to his 39th birthday.

Do I think a team will offer Jeter more than the 3-year, $45 million deal Cashman and the Yankees are proposing? No. Even if a team does, it would be tough for the Yankees not to at least match the deal, especially if the other suitor is the Red Sox or Mets.

So, for all of the posturing, bad press, and threats from Yankee fans about not attending games or watching games if Jeter is not on the team, rest easy. Jeter will be wearing number 2 and hitting second in the Yankee lineup come April.

The Firing Line: November

2010-11-23T11:20:00.003-05:00

In the wake of the firing of Minnesota Vikings coach Brad Childress, I thought of what the odds must have been after the Vikings were as limp as a wet dishrag against the rival Packers, 31-3, last Sunday. I thought it was even money, if not worse, that Childress would get the heave-ho. Childress was easy, but who will be next?

I would like to present this new monthly column, which will look at the odds that a coach in any of the three sports we cover on "Sports With The StatMan" will be canned in the next month.

COACHES ALREADY FIRED THIS SEASON

Wade Phillips – Dallas Cowboys (NFL) – Fired November 8^th

Scott Gordon – New York Islanders (NHL) – Fired November 15^th

Brad Childress – Minnesota Vikings (NFL) – Fired November 22^nd

THE FIRING LINE – NOVEMBER

1. Marvin Lewis – Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) – 5-to-1

We saw the Cowboys give up after getting crunched by the Packers. We saw the Vikings exhale against the Packers. The Packers play Atlanta next and Mike Smith is not going anywhere. But, what other teams are giving up? The Bengals are at the top of the list. They are 2-8 after standing still while the Buffalo Bills scored 35 unanswered second-half points against the Bengals last Sunday. Terrell Owens called the team "terrible". If the Jets make Marvin Lewis's Bengals look bad on Thursday night, the move might be made before those doorbusters on Friday morning.

2. John MacLean – New Jersey Devils (NHL) – 10-to-1

The Devils shut out Washington at home on Monday night, 5-0, to win only their second game at home this season. This is considered an upswing for the Devils, a franchise that has symbolized stability and winning over the last decade-and-a-half. MacLean may get a little bit of a pass because he is a first-year head coach that paid his dues for the organization in Lowell, foregoing head coaching opportunities elsewhere to be a good company man. But, the patience with the fan base is wearing thin because bad patterns in the Devils play are evolving and coaching is supposed to stop that in its tracks. If the Devils fall backward again, MacLean could get the boot.

3. Gary Kubiak – Houston Texans (NFL) – 25-to-1

Watching the Texans trail the Jets, 23-7, heading into the fourth quarter last Sunday, one would think Kubiak's job was on brittle footing. The Texans had a great finish, even pulling ahead 27-23 with less than a minute left, but a loss is a loss. The Texans are 2-6 after a 2-0 start where they surprised the AFC defending Champion Colts and came from behind to score the last 20 points in a 30-27 overtime thriller at Washington. Houston has not won since their bye week (0-4) and the Texans defense has been atrocious, bleeding 30 points a game to the opposition. Kubiak saved his job with a 9-7 year in 2009, but I don't see that happening this time around.

4. John Fox – Carolina Panthers (NFL) – 50-to-1

The excuse for Carolina's awful 1-9 record has been injuries. The Panthers were down to their fourth-string quarterback in Brian St. Pierre against Baltimore. Matt Moore and Jimmy Claussen are out with injuries and rookie Tony Pike was not ready to start against the Ravens punishing defense. But, it is not just the passing game. The running game is in shambles, too. DeAngelo Williams is done for the year with a foot injury and the Jonathan Stewart is recovering from a concussion. With Steve Smith withering away, things are not finer in the state of Carolina. Fox will most likely last the season, but his days are definitely numbered.

5. Tom Renney – Edmonton Oilers (NHL) – 100-to-1

The Oilers were the worst team in hockey last year and garnered the first pick in this season's Entry Draft. But, Taylor Hall and Magnus Paajarvi has not started out well, while Jordan Eberle has put up some points and highlight-reel goals. It is one thing to say the personnel that Renney has had to work with is young and inexperienced. But, the Oilers have been hemorrhaging goals. Nikolai Khabibulin has been brutal (4-10-1, 4.07 GAA, .879 Save%). Edmonton has allowed the most goals in the NHL (77) and scored the second-fewest goals in the Western Conference (49), giving the Oilers have the worst goal differential in the NHL (minus-28). Due to the low expectations for the team, Renney will probably survive, but look at the Islanders, who canned Scott Gordon after 17 games despite finishing in 26^th place last season.

Week 11 NFL Picks and Predictions

2010-11-21T12:01:00.000-05:00

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 10 results in parentheses)

Picks - Straight Up: 88-56 (.611) (7-7 in Week 10)
Picks - Against The Spread: 72-65-7 (.524) (4-10 in Week 10)
Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 5 after Week 10 (6-4, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 17-11-2 (.600) (2-0-1 in Week 10: QB (W, 7-3): D. Garrard JAX 36, B. Favre MIN 9; RB (T, 5-3-2): J. Charles KCY 18, F. Gore SFO 18; WR (W, 5-5): K. Walter HOU 15, S. Moss WSH 2)

WEEK 11 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)

Locals: NYG (W at PHL), NYJ (W vs. HOU), PHL (L vs. NYG), NE (W vs. IND)
Big Game Winners: MIN (vs. GBY), PIT (vs. OAK), SFO (vs. TBY)
Other Winners: CHI (at MIA), CIN (vs. BUF), CLE (at JAX), TEN (vs. WSH), BAL (at CAR), KCY (vs. ARZ), DAL (vs. DET), ATL (at STL), NO (vs. SEA), SDG (vs. DEN)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NYG (+3 at PHL), NYJ (-7 vs. HOU), NE (-3.5 vs. IND)
Big Game Covers: MIN (+3 vs. GBY), OAK (+7 at PIT), TBY (+3.5 at SFO)
Other Covers: CHI (+1.5 at MIA), BUF (+5.5 at CIN), CLE (+1.5 at JAX), TEN (-7 vs. WSH), BAL (-10 at CAR), KCY (-7.5 vs. ARZ), DET (+6.5 at DAL), ATL (-3 at STL), NO (-11.5 vs. SEA), DEN (+10 at SDG)

Knockout Pool

Round 5: New Orleans (vs. Seattle)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
QB: Start Mark Sanchez NYJ (vs. HOU), Sit Matt Cassel KCY (vs. ARZ)
RB: Start Cedric Benson CIN (vs. BUF), Sit Arian Foster HOU (at NYJ)
WR: Start Nate Washington TEN (vs. WSH), Sit Anquan Boldin BAL (at CAR)

***

There is no audio this week for the NFL Fantasy Update or the NFL Picks and Predictions. We'll return with that next week, but you can catch the audio from previous weeks on http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman.

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#87) on Friday night, November 26th, at 9pm ET. We will break down the Giants-Eagles NFC East showdown as well as the rest of Week 11 in the NFL. We will list the major free agents in baseball with our guesses on where they will land in 2011. And, in hockey, the Rangers and Flyers are fighting for the Atlantic, while the Devils and Islanders are fighting for the basement.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"
Extra audio available at: http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman

Week 10 NFL Picks and Predictions

2010-11-14T10:43:00.001-05:00

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 9 results in parentheses)

Picks - Straight Up: 81-49 (.623) (12-1 in Week 10)
Picks - Against The Spread: 68-55-7 (.550) (7-5-1 in Week 9)
Knockout Pool - Dead in Round 4 after Week 9 (5-4, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 15-11-1 (.574) (0-3 in Week 9: QB (L, 6-3): J. Freeman TBY 21, J. Flacco BAL 24; RB (L, 5-3-1): D. Sproles SDG 0, J. Best DET 8; WR (L, 4-5): B. Tate NE 1, D. Bowe KCY 12)

WEEK 10 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)

Locals: NYG (W vs. DAL), NYJ (W at CLE), PHL (W at WSH), NE (L at PIT)
Big Game Winners: BAL (at ATL), TEN (at MIA), MIN (at CHI)
Other Winners: BUF (vs. DET), TBY (vs. CAR), IND (vs. CIN), HOU (at JAX), KCY (at DEN), SFO (vs. STL), ARZ (vs. SEA)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NYG (-13.5 vs. DAL), NYJ (-3 at CLE), PHL (-3 at WSH), NE (+4.5 at PIT)
Big Game Covers: BAL (+1 at ATL), TEN (-2 at MIA), MIN (-1 at CHI)
Other Covers: BUF (-3 vs. DET), CAR (+7 at TBY), IND (-7 vs. CIN), HOU (+1.5 at JAX), KCY (-1 at DEN), STL (+6 at SFO), ARZ (-3 vs. SEA)

Knockout Pool

Round 5: Indianapolis (vs. Cincinnati)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start David Garrard JAX (vs. HOU), Sit Brett Favre MIN (at CHI)
RB: Start Jamaal Charles KCY (at DEN), Sit Frank Gore SFO (vs. STL)
WR: Start Kevin Walter HOU (at JAX), Sit Santana Moss WSH (vs. PHL)

***

There is no audio this week for the NFL Fantasy Update or the NFL Picks and Predictions. We'll return with that next week, but you can catch the audio from previous weeks on http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman.

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#86) on Thursday evening, November 18th, at a special time, 7pm ET. Will the Jets and Patriots still be tied atop the AFC East? Can the Patriots avoid losing two in a row on the road on Sunday night at Pittsburgh? How bad of a beating will the Giants put on the demoralized Cowboys? We will also break down the list of free agents in baseball and we'll talk about how hot the surging Flyers are in hockey.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"
Extra audio available at: http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman

Week 9 NFL Picks and Predictions

2010-11-07T11:48:00.000-05:00

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 8 results in parentheses)

Picks - Straight Up: 69-48, .590 (10-3 in Week 8)
Picks - Against The Spread: 61-50-6, .547 (9-4 in Week 8)
Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 4 after Week 8 (5-3, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 15-8-1 (.646) (0-3 in Week 8: QB (L, 6-2): J. Kitna DAL 12, T. Brady NE 19; RB (L, 5-2-1): J. Stewart CAR 3, M. Bush OAK 14; WR (L, 4-4): S. Johnson BUF 5, T. Owens CIN 18)

WEEK 9 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)

Locals: NYG (W at SEA), NYJ (W at DET), PHL (W vs. IND), NE (W at CLE)
Big Game Winners: OAK (vs. KCY), BAL (vs. MIA), ATL (vs. TBY)
Other Winners: MIN (vs. ARZ), CHI (at BUF), SDG (at HOU), NO (at CAR), GBY (vs. DAL), PIT (at CIN)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NYG (-6.5 at SEA), NYJ (-4 at DET), PHL (-3 vs. IND), NE (-4 at CLE)
Big Game Covers: OAK (-2 vs. KCY), MIA (+5 at BAL), TBY (+8.5 at ATL)
Other Covers: ARZ (+8 at MIN), CHI (-3 at BUF), SDG (-3 at HOU), NO (-6.5 at CAR), DAL (+7.5 at GBY), PIT (-4.5 at CIN)

Knockout Pool
Round 4: New England (at Cleveland)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Josh Freeman TBY (at ATL), Sit Joe Flacco BAL (vs. MIA)
RB: Start Darren Sproles SDG (at HOU), Sit Jahvid Best DET (vs. NYJ)
WR: Start Brandon Tate NE (at CLE), Sit Dwayne Bowe KCY (at OAK)

Week 8 NFL Picks and Predictions

2010-10-31T13:20:00.002-04:00

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 7 results in parentheses)
Picks - Straight Up: 59-45 .567 (6-8 in Week 7)
Picks - Against The Spread: 52-46-6, .529 (3-11 in Week 7)
Knockout Pool - Dead in Round 3 after Week 7 (4-3, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 15-5-1 (.738) (1-1-1 in Week 7: QB (L, 6-1): S. Bradford STL 12, C. Henne MIA 18; RB (T, 5-1-1): C. Ivory NO 4, D. Williams CAR 4; WR (W, 4-3): P. Crayton 8, B. Marshall 5)

WEEK 8 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
Locals: NYJ (vs. GBY), NE (vs. MIN), NYG (BYE), PHL (BYE)
Big Game Winners: SDG (vs. TEN), PIT (at NO), IND (vs. HOU)
Other Winners: KCY (vs. BUF), DAL (vs. JAX), STL (vs. CAR), MIA (at CIN), DET (vs. WSH), SFO (vs. DEN), TBY (at ARZ), OAK (vs. SEA)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
Locals: GBY (+6 at NYJ), MIN (+5 at NE), NYG (BYE), PHL (BYE)
Big Game Covers: SDG (-3.5 vs. TEN), PIT (Pick 'em at NO), HOU (+5.5 at IND)
Other Covers: KCY (-7.5 vs. BUF), JAX (+6.5 at DAL), STL (-3 vs. CAR), MIA (+2 at CIN), DET (-2.5 vs. WSH), SFO (-1 vs. DEN), TBY (+3 at ARZ), OAK (-2.5 vs. SEA)

Knockout Pool
Round 4: Kansas City (vs. Buffalo)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
QB: Start Jon Kitna DAL (vs. JAX), Sit Tom Brady NE (vs. MIN)
RB: Start Jonathan Stewart CAR (at STL), Sit Michael Bush OAK (vs. SEA)
WR/TE: Start Steve Johnson BUF (at KCY), Sit Terrell Owens CIN (vs. MIA)

Week 7 NFL Picks and Predictions

2010-10-24T15:12:00.002-04:00

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 6 results in parentheses)
Picks - Straight Up: 53-37 .589 (9-5 in Week 6)
Picks - Against The Spread: 49-35-6, .578 (5-6-3 in Week 6)
Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 3 after Week 6 (4-2, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL; Losses - WSH, CHI)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 14-4 (3-0 in Week 6: QB (W, 6-0): M. Cassel KCY 28, M. Schaub 22; RB (W, 5-1): A. Bradshaw NYG 14, P. Hillis CLE 8; WR (W, 3-3): K. Britt TEN 9, R. White ATL 8)

WEEK 7 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
Locals: PHL (W at TEN), NE (L at SDG), NYG (L at DAL), NYJ (BYE)
Big Game Winners: CHI (vs. WSH), PIT (at MIA), MIN (at GBY)
Other Winners: NO (vs. CLE), KCY (vs. JAX), ATL (vs. CIN), TBY (vs. STL), BAL (vs. BUF), SFO (at CAR), SEA (vs. ARZ), DEN (vs. OAK)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
Locals: PHL (+3 at TEN), SDG (-2.5 vs. NE), DAL (-3 vs. NYG), NYJ (BYE)
Big Game Covers: CHI (-3 vs. WSH), PIT (-3 at MIA), MIN (+2.5 at GBY)
Other Covers: NO (-13.5 vs. CLE), KCY (-9 vs. JAX), ATL (-3.5 vs. CIN), TBY (-3 vs. STL), BAL (-13 vs. BUF), SFO (-3 at CAR), ARZ (+6 at SEA), OAK (+8.5 at DEN)

Knockout Pool
Round 3: New Orleans (vs. Cleveland)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
QB: Start Sam Bradford STL (at TBY), Sit Chad Henne MIA (vs. PIT)
RB: Start Chris Ivory NO (vs. CLE), Sit DeAngelo Williams CAR (vs. SFO)
WR/TE: Start Patrick Crayton SDG (vs. NE), Sit Brandon Marshall MIA (vs. PIT)

Week 6 NFL Picks and Predictions

2010-10-17T13:54:00.000-04:00

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 5 results in parentheses)
Picks - Straight Up: 44-32, .579 (9-5 in Week 5)
Picks - Against The Spread: 44-29-3, .599 (10-4 in Week 5)
Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 2 after Week 5 (4-1, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL; Losses - WSH)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 11-4 (2-1 in Week 5: QB (W, 5-0): R. Fitzpatrick BUF 26, J. Freeman TBY 17; RB (W, 4-1): R. Rice BAL 23, T. Jones KCY 1; WR (L, 2-3): J. Knox CHI 1, D. Driver GBY 5)

WEEK 6 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
Locals: NYG (W vs. DET), NYJ (W at DEN), PHL (L vs. ATL), NE (L vs. BAL)
Big Game Winners: GBY (vs. MIA), HOU (vs. KCY), MIN (vs. DAL)
Other Winners: PIT (vs. CLE), CHI (vs. SEA), SDG (at STL), NO (at TBY), SFO (vs. OAK), IND (at WSH), TEN (at JAX)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
Locals: NYG (-10 vs. DET), NYJ (-3 at DEN), ATL (+2.5 at PHL), BAL (+3 at NE)
Big Game Covers: MIA (+6.5 at GBY), KCY (+4 at HOU), MIN (-1.5 vs. DAL)
Other Covers: CLE (+13.5 at PIT), CHI (-6.5 vs. SEA), SDG (-8 at STL), NO (-4 at TBY), OAK (+6.5 at SFO), IND (-3 at WSH), TEN (-3 at JAX)

Knockout Pool
Round 2: Chicago (vs. Seattle)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
QB: Start Matt Cassel KCY (at HOU), Sit Matt Schaub HOU (vs. KCY)
RB: Start Ahmad Bradshaw NYG (vs. DET), Sit Peyton Hillis CLE (at PIT)
WR/TE: Start Kenny Britt TEN (at JAX), Sit Roddy White ATL (at PHL)

Week 5 NFL Picks and Predictions

2010-10-10T13:02:00.000-04:00

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 4 results in parentheses)
Picks - Straight Up: 35-27, .565 (8-6 in Week 4)
Picks - Against The Spread: 34-25-3, .573 (8-6 in Week 4)
Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 2 after Week 4 (3-1, Teams Used: NYG, PHL, SDG, WSH)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play - 9-3 (2-1 in Week 4: QB (W, 4-0): B. Gradkowski OAK 19, J. Cutler CHI (-2); RB (W, 3-1): S. Greene NYJ 11, C. Benson CIN 6; WR (L, 2-2): J. Maclin 1, M. Floyd 4)

WEEK 5 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
Locals: NYG (W at HOU), PHL (L at SFO), NYJ (W vs. MIN), NE (BYE)
Big Game Winners: BAL (vs. DEN), GBY (at WSH), TEN (at DAL)
Other Winners: JAX (at BUF), ATL (at CLE), DET (vs. STL), IND (vs. KCY), CIN (vs. TBY), CHI (at CAR), NO (at ARZ), SDG (at OAK)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
Locals: NYG (+3 at HOU), SFO (-3 vs. PHL), NYJ (-4 vs. MIN), NE (BYE)
Big Game Covers: BAL (-7 vs. DEN), GBY (-2.5 at WSH), TEN (+6.5 at DAL)
Other Covers: JAX (Pick 'em at BUF), ATL (-3 at CLE), DET (-3 vs. STL), IND (-7.5 vs. KCY), TBY (+6.5 at CIN), CHI (-3 at CAR), NO (-6.5 at ARZ), SDG (-6 at OAK)

Knockout Pool
Round 2: Baltimore (vs. Denver)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF (vs. JAX), Sit Josh Freeman (at CIN)
RB: Ray Rice BAL (vs. DEN), Sit Thomas Jones KCY (at IND)
WR/TE: Johnny Knox CHI (at CAR), Sit Donald Driver (at WSH)

Week 4 NFL Picks and Predictions

2010-10-03T10:32:00.000-04:00

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 3 results in parentheses)
Picks - Straight Up: 27-21 (10-6 in Week 3)
Picks - Against The Spread: 26-19-3 (9-7 in Week 3)
Knockout Pool - Knocked Out in Week 3 (2-1, Teams Used: NYG, PHL, ~~WSH~~)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play - 7-2 (3-0 in Week 3: QB (W, 3-0): K. Orton DEN 28, M. Ryan ATL 23; RB (W, 2-1): M. Tolbert SDG 7, R. Brown MIA 5; WR (W, 2-1): L. Murphy 11, H. Nicks NYG 5)

WEEK 4 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
Locals: NYJ (W at BUF), PHL (W vs. WSH), NYG (L vs. CHI), NE (W at MIA)
Big Game Winners: BAL (at PIT), HOU (at OAK), TEN (vs. DEN)
Other Winners: CIN (at CLE), NO (vs. CAR), ATL (vs. SFO), SEA (at STL), GBY (vs. DET), IND (at JAX), SDG (vs. ARZ)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
Locals: CHI (+4 at NYG), NYJ (-5 at BUF), WSH (+5.5 at PHL), NE (Pick 'em at MIA)
Big Game Covers: BAL (+1.5 at PIT), HOU (-3 at OAK), TEN (-6.5 vs. DEN)
Other Covers: CIN (-3 at CLE), NO (-13.5 vs. CAR), SFO (+7 at ATL), SEA (-1 at STL), DET (+14.5 at GBY), IND (-7 at JAX), SDG (-8 vs. ARZ)

Knockout Pool
Round 2: San Diego (vs. Arizona)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
QB: Start Bruce Gradkowski OAK (vs. HOU), Sit Jay Cutler CHI (at NYG)
RB: Start Shonn Greene NYJ (at BUF), Sit Cedric Benson CIN (at CLE)
WR/TE: Start Jeremy Maclin PHL (vs. WSH), Sit Malcom Floyd SDG (vs. ARZ)

Week 3 NFL Picks and Predictions

2010-09-26T13:06:00.002-04:00

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 2 results in parentheses)
Picks - Straight Up: 17-15 (9-7 in Week 2)
Picks - Against The Spread: 16-12-3 (8-7 in Week 2)
Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 1 (2-0, Teams Used: NYG, PHL)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play - 4-2 (2-1 in Week 2: QB (W, 2-0): M. vick 28 PHL, C. Palmer CIN 6; RB (L, 1-1): J. Addai IND 11, R. Mendenhall PIT 6; WR (W, 1-1): D. Bryant DAL 5, G. Jennings GBY 3)

PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
Locals: NYG (W vs. TEN), NE (W vs. BUF), PHL (W at JAX), NYJ (W at MIA)
Big Game Winners: DAL (at HOU), SFO (at KCY), NO (vs. ATL)
Other Winners: CIN (at CAR), BAL (vs. CLE), PIT (at TBY), MIN (vs. DET), WSH (at STL), SDG (at SEA), ARZ (vs. OAK), IND (at DEN), GBY (at CHI)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
Locals: NYG (-3 vs. TEN), NE (-14 vs. BUF), PHL (-3 at JAX), NYJ (+2 at MIA)
Big Game Covers: DAL (+3 at HOU), SFO (-2.5 at KCY), NO (-4 vs. ATL)
Other Covers: CIN (-3 at CAR), CLE (+10.5 at BAL), PIT (-2.5 at TBY), MIN (-10.5 vs. DET), WSH (-3.5 at STL), SDG (-5.5 at SEA), OAK (+4 at ARZ), IND (-5.5 at DEN), GBY (-3 at CHI)

Knockout Pool
Washington (at St. Louis)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
QB: Start Kyle Orton DEN (vs. IND), Sit Matt Ryan ATL (at NO)
RB: Start Mike Tolbert SDG (at SEA), Sit Ronnie Brown MIA (vs. NYJ)
WR/TE: Start Louis Murphy OAK (at ARZ), Sit Hakeem Nicks NYG (vs. TEN)

Week 2 NFL Picks and Predictions

2010-09-19T14:13:00.000-04:00

SEASON RESULTS
Picks - Straight Up: 8-8
Picks - Against The Spread: 8-5-3
Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 1 (1-0, Teams Used: NYG)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play - 2-1 (QB (W, 1-0): J. Cutler CHI 31, D. McNabb WSH 7; RB (W, 1-0): R. Brown MIA 12, S. Jackson STL 8; WR (L, 0-1): D. Mason BAL 2, M. Crabtree SFO 1)

PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
Locals: PHL (W at DET), NE (W at NYJ), NYJ (L vs. NE), NYG (L at IND)
Big Game Winners: TEN (vs. PIT), MIN (vs. MIA), SFO (vs. NO)
Other Winners: BAL (at CIN), CHI (at DAL), ATL (vs. ARZ), KCY (at CLE), GBY (vs. BUF), CAR (vs. TBY), OAK (vs. STL), SEA (at DEN), HOU (at WSH), SDG (vs. JAX)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
Locals: PHL (-6 at DET), NE (-3 at NYJ), IND (-5 vs. NYG)
Big Game Covers: TEN (-5 vs. PIT), MIN (-5.5 vs. MIA), SFO (+5.5 vs. NO)
Other Covers: BAL (-2.5 at CIN), CHI (+7.5 at DAL), ATL (-6.5 vs ARZ), KCY (+2 at CLE), GBY (-12.5 vs. BUF), CAR (-3.5 vs. CAR), STL (+3.5 at OAK), SEA (+3 at DEN), HOU (-2.5 at WSH), SDG (-7 vs. JAX)

Knockout Pool
Philadelphia (at DET)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
QB: Start Michael Vick PHL (at DET), Sit Carson Palmer CIN (vs. BAL)
RB: Start Rashard Mendenhall PIT (at TEN), Sit Joseph Addai IND (vs. NYG)
WR/TE: Start Dez Bryant DAL (vs. CHI), Sit Greg Jennings GBY (vs. BUF)

Week 1 Picks & Predictions

2010-09-12T13:04:00.005-04:00

PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)

Locals: NYG (W vs. CAR), NYJ (W vs. BAL), PHL (L vs. GBY), NE (W vs. CIN)
Big Game Winners: IND (at HOU), ATL (at PIT), DAL (at WSH)
Other Winners: MIA (at BUF), DET (at CHI), CLE (at TBY), JAX (vs. DEN), TEN (vs. OAK), SFO (at SEA), ARZ (at STL), SDG (at KCY)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)

Locals: NYG (-6.5 vs. CAR), NYJ (-2.5 vs. BAL), GBY (+3 at PHL), NE (-4.5 vs. CIN)
Big Game Covers: IND (-2 at HOU), ATL (-2 at PIT), WSH (+3.5 vs. DAL)
Other Covers: MIA (-3 at BUF), DET (+7 at CHI), CLE (+3 vs. TBY), JAX (-2.5 vs. DEN), TEN (-6 vs. OAK), SFO (-3 at SEA), ARZ (-4 at STL), SDG (-4.5 at KCY)

Knockout Pool

N.Y. Giants (vs. Carolina)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play

QB: Start Jay Cutler CHI (vs. DET), Donovan McNabb WSH (vs. DAL)
RB: Start Ronnie Brown MIA (at BUF), Sit Steven Jackson STL (vs. ARZ)
WR/TE: Start Michael Crabtree SFO (at SEA), Sit Derrick Mason BAL (at NYJ)

Sports With The StatMan #75: Show Notes

2010-09-08T16:05:00.007-04:00

Preseason football is just that...the preseason. So, why do fans call for coaches to be fired after a preseason game? We talk about that and the new and improved "Bridge to Mariano". We look over the September schedules for the contenders and compare. Plus, the local teams are featured in the 2010 StatMan NFL Preview of the AFC East and NFC East.

This is a new way of putting together the notes for our show. Instead of summarizing the show, I will try to break the show down into smaller pieces so you can listen to the segments of the show that interest you.

Here is the list of topics we talked about:

00:00-02:00 – Intro
02:00-07:15 – Value of NFL Preseason games
07:15-12:45 – New and improved Bridge to Mariano
12:45-14:30 – Around the AL East
14:30-16:00 – Phillies' West Coast swing
16:00-18:00 – Around the NL (Reds-Cardinals, Padres, Giants)
18:00-20:00 – MLB disappointing teams of 2010
20:00-22:15 – Coming up on the show, Nationals-Marlins brawl
22:15-29:00 – Show information, Upcoming September shows, NFL Week 1 local schedules
29:00-51:00 – September contender schedules (games left, games vs. .500+ teams, home games, games vs. competition, standings)
- 29:00 – Yankees (29 games left, 19 vs. .500+ teams, 13 home games, 7 vs. TB/6 vs. BOS, 1 GA of TB in AL East/8 GA of BOS in AL East)
- 31:45 – Rays (29, 13, 12, 7 vs. NYY/3 vs. BOS, 1 GB of NYY in AL East/7 GA of BOS in AL Wild Card)
- 34:15 – Red Sox (29, 19, 12, 6 vs. NYY/3 vs. TB, 8 GB of NYY in AL East/7 GB of TB in AL Wild Card)
- 37:30 – Phillies (29, 14, 16, 6 vs. ATL/0 vs. SF, 3 GB of ATL in NL East/1.5 GA of SF in NL Wild Card)
- 40:30 – Braves (29, 16, 14, 6 vs. PHL, 3 GA of PHL in NL East)
- 43:00 – Giants (28, 16, 12, 7 vs. SD/0 vs. PHL, 3 GB of SD in NL West/1.5 GB of PHL in NL Wild Card)
- 45:00 – Padres (30, 26, 17, 7 vs. SF, 3 GA of SF in NL West)
- 48:00 – Twins (29, 10, 17, 3 vs. CHW, 4 GA of CHW in AL Central)
- 49:15 – White Sox (29, 10, 16, 3 vs. MIN, 4 GB of MIN in AL Central)
51:00-55:15 – MLB: Big Series over the next week
55:15-57:30 – How to get in touch with the show
57:30-58:30 – Next week on Sports With The StatMan (9/8, 9pm ET)
58:30-1:00:00 – Show review
1:00:00- – 2010 StatMan NFL Preview - AFC East, NFC East (2009 actual record/2010 predicted record)
- 1:00:00 – AFC East: Buffalo Bills (6-10/3-13)
- 1:05:15 – AFC East: Miami Dolphins (7-9/9-7)
- 1:11:00 – AFC East: New England Patriots (10-6/13-3)
- 1:15:45 – AFC East: New York Jets (9-7/11-5)
- 1:24:45 – NFC East: Dallas Cowboys (11-5/9-7)
- 1:29:00 – NFC East: New York Giants (8-8/10-6)
- 1:35:00 – NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (11-5/7-9)
- 1:38:30 – NFC East: Washington Redskins (4-12/5-11)
- 1:42:30 – Big Questions recap, predicted standings, next week's preview
1:42:45-1:43:15 – Next week: Playoff Predictions and Fantasy Preview as 2010 StatMan NFL Preview finishes up
1:43:15-1:53:00 – MLB: Fantasy Update – Last 7 days (Alex Rios/Edwin Jackson), Season-to-date (Albert Pujols/Roy Halladay), Triple Crown Chase
1:53:00-1:54:30 – Show Close: Recap and Next Week's Preview

Join us for the next episode of Sports With The StatMan (#76), which will be on Wednesday night, September 8^th, at 9pm Eastern time. We will finish our 2010 StatMan NFL Preview with playoff predictions and our Fantasy Preview. We will also preview Week 1 in the NFL.

HOW TO FIND THE SHOW
VISIT the show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
FOLLOW the show on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/gstatman
READ the Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
DOWNLOAD the show on iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"

Was Dan Duquette Right?

2010-08-21T22:09:00.010-04:00

Roger Clemens is back in the news. Federal indictments and the threat of jail time seem to do that. Clemens has been charged with one count of obstruction of Congress, three counts of false statements to Congress, and two counts of perjury. There are six counts in all and each count is a felony, which is punishable by five years each for a grand total of up to 30 years in prison. Clemens and his trusty attorney, Rusty Hardin, have their work cut out for them. The question I keep having is: "Where did Roger Clemens go wrong?" Was he always a steroid user? Was his 1984 Rookie of the Year and 1986 Cy Young and MVP Awards tainted as much as his Cy Youngs he won in Toronto (1997-98), the Bronx (2001), and Houston (2004)? His major league total of 354 wins cannot be ignored, nor can his total of more than 4,600 strikeouts. Like Barry Bonds, his career records demand that you talk about him.

Did Clemens go wrong after he left the Red Sox? Boston General Manager Dan Duquette made his infamous quote that Clemens was in the "twilight of his career" when the Sox could not re-sign Clemens. It has been 14 years since the quote and does not look nearly as bad as it was portrayed by the media to be. What's more, Duquette may have been exactly right.

Clemens's next contract ended up paying Clemens $52.15 million over six years for a per-season average of $8.69 million. Up to Duquette's comment, Clemens had been averaging about $5 million a season over the last few seasons with the Red Sox. One thing is for sure, Duquette only needed to look at the back of Clemens's baseball card to surmise he may have been washed up. Would you offer Clemens 60% more money for the next five years if his last four seasons looked like this?

Down the stretch in his final season in Boston, he tied his own Major League record by striking out 20 Tigers in one game. He led the league in strikeouts in 1996 and strike-shortened 1994 season was solid. But, his 1993 season (4.46 ERA) and his 1995 season (1.436 WHIP) were awful by his standards. Clemens blew up at the Duquette's accusation and looked like it was the main motivating factor to pressing on to his next stop. Toronto, in the same division as Boston, was a perfect place for Clemens to plot his revenge. After two Cy Young seasons in Toronto, he was traded to the Yankees, where he pitched for another five seasons. It was seven seasons of revenge for Clemens within the division against the Red Sox and their fans, who turned against him. Was his career renaissance based on adrenaline and revenge or was it based on something more?

In his 13 seasons with the Red Sox, Clemens had five "great" seasons and three more "good" seasons. Was Clemens a Hall of Famer? At the time, no. He was 192-111 with a 3.06 ERA. Not bad, and his 2,590 strikeouts would garner some votes. At the age of 33, he would have pitched a few more seasons and may have had a slight uptick before the inevitable pre-Steroid Era mid-30s age-induced decline. I am sure you can determine the average decline for a major leaguer and even though Clemens was above-average, how many more wins would he have? 40? 50? Clemens would have stuck around on the ballot for several years, but he would not have made the Hall of Fame.

After Boston, Clemens pitched 11 more seasons following his 33^rd birthday. His career numbers with Boston and after Boston show some similarities. The hits he allowed per nine innings stayed about the same, as he allowed 7.6 hits per nine innings in his Boston years and 7.7 hits per nine after he left. His strikeouts per nine went up from 8.4 in Boston to 8.8 in his post-Boston career. Considering the explosion of offensive numbers in the Steroid Era, the fact that Clemens's ERA only went up by 0.15 earned runs per nine innings is suspicious.

All Duquette was saying was Clemens was entering the type of decline that was common for players his age to encounter during the life of that next contract. Adrenaline and revenge are a potent mix, but steroids and HGH have a little more staying power.

Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemero02.shtml

Kovalchuk's Box

2010-08-18T17:32:00.001-04:00

Before Pandora was a planet in Avatar, or a cool iPhone app, it was a box that you did not want to open. The meaning is the same across the board. In Avatar, Pandora was a planet that humans should not have trolled. The iPhone app, like many others, is an addictive time waster. Ilya Kovalchuk’s first Devils contract, rumored to be a 17-year deal worth $102 million, was denied by an arbitrator last week after being challenged by the NHL. Kovalchuk is a free agent again, but the NHL may not be stopping there.

Four other contracts have been rumored to be called into question as Kovalchuk-like contracts, or as Justin Bourne calls them, “Kovalcontracts”. Three of the four “Kovalcontracts” are contract extensions that take effect this upcoming season. These contract extensions belong to the Bruins’ Marc Savard, the Flyers’ Chris Pronger, and the Canucks’ Roberto Luongo. One other contract is already underway: the Blackhawks’ Marian Hossa. These contracts were picked from the litter because of their similar structure, but how alike are they?

First, the structure of the Ilya Kovalchuk’s denied contract that was offered by the Devils:

2010-11 through 2011-12 (2 seasons): $6 million per season
2012-13 through 2016-18 (6 seasons): $11.5 million per season
2018-19 (1 season): $7.5 million
2019-20 (1 season): $6.5 million
2020-21 (1 season): $3.5 million
2021-22 (1 season): $750,000
2022-27 (5 seasons): $550,000

The key issues with this contract is the term, which would expire in 2027 when Kovalchuk was 44 years old, and the precipitous drop-off of dollars during the back-end of the contract. The loophole in the Collective Bargaining Agreement is that if a player retires, the cap hit is removed from the team. With the average salary number constituting the cap hit, back-loading these contracts are a nice way for the team to pay out more money than is counted against the team’s ability to sign players. A provision was put into the CBA to count the cap hit for a retired player if the deal takes effect after the player turns 35 years old. However, for these ultra-long-term deals that take effect before the player turns 35, ultimately eschewing future free agency and causing a marriage between team and player, the loophole exists and it has been exploited by NHL franchises.

If we dissect Kovalchuk’s denied contract, the first year is an “average” year by this contract’s standards, as $6 million is the average of the 17-year/$102 million deal. The number goes up to $11.5 million (+91.7% change from previous season), which would be somewhere near a “max” contract the NHL would allow, which is 20% of the salary cap figure for a season. The salary cap is at $59.4 million for the 2010-11 season and $11.5 million works out to 19.4% of the total cap number. Conceivably, this number may change, as the salary cap is redefined from year to year and the provision may change for the next labor contract, which would take effect no earlier than the 2012-13 season. A drop-off to $7.5 million (-34.8% change from previous season) and $6.5 million in consecutive seasons is not that appalling, considering Kovalchuk would be aged 36 and 37, respectively.

The drop-off between season 11 of the deal is worse, as Kovalchuk’s pay would fall from $6.5 million to $3.5 million in 2020-21 (-46.2% from previous season), almost halving his salary. The final thud in the contract is the following season (2021-22), when the pay falls from the millions to the hundreds of thousands, from $3.5 million to $750,000 (-78.6% from previous season). This was the eye-opener and, more so than the length of the deal, should have caused the NHL to have heart palpitations. If the Devils offered similar dollars throughout the life of the ultra-long-term deal, such as what the Islanders offered goaltender Rick DiPietro, the NHL would most likely not have investigated the legality of the contract. It was the lower amount of money in the final six seasons of the contract that was most responsible for its rejection. With the diminutive salary figures in years 12 through 17 of the contract, there was an overwhelming probability Kovalchuk would retire before playing out the contract, as only a handful of players have still played the game at the highest level at the age of 44.

Also, after 11 years of the deal, 96.6% of the total dollars in the deal were paid out. At that point, the percentage of length of the contract (64.7%) was greatly outpaced by the percentage of total dollars paid by that point in the contract. The difference between the two percentages was 31.9%, which is staggering and defines a “front-loaded” contract. Think of it as a rollercoaster. You start to climb the initial hill, and the higher you go, the more you will have to have to fall quickly at the end of the ride because the start and the end of the ride has to be at the same height. If a player makes the same amount for an entire contract, the rollercoaster is completely level. A perfectly acceptable contract is one where the first couple of years are a little less than average, the middle of the contract is a little more than average, and the last couple of years are a little less than average. This makes for a nice hill in the middle for a very easy-going coaster. Kovalchuk’s contract has a rapid rise and an even more extreme fall.

The NHL drew the line in the sand for these types of contracts, sure to be addressed in the next labor agreement. In the meantime, executives, player agents, and fans can only guess where that line truly is.

For term, let’s draw the line in the sand at 40 years old, beyond which the term would be prohibitively long for the realistic possibility of a player fulfilling the length of the contract, never mind the difficult task in finding someone to insure the guaranteed contract. For dollars, let’s raise the red flag when the drop-off of any year-over-year salary is more than half of the previous season’s salary. For the variance between term and money paid out to that point in the contract, let’s set the variance at 25%, by which if it reaches this number or goes over, we will call it a “front-loaded” contract.

Kovalchuk’s denied contract hits all of these sweet spots: the term concludes when Kovalchuk is 44 years old and season 12 of the 17-year deal caused a 78.6% drop-off. For Kovalchuk, Years 1 and 2 were level and Year 3 started the climb up to Year 10. Year 11 started the downward spiral and Years 12 through 16 represented a free fall. For the five seasons that represent Years 7 through 11 of the deal, the variance between term and money paid out to that point in the contract is over 25%.

Now, to the other four player contracts questioned as a result of the denial of Kovalchuk’s contract:

Marc Savard (Bruins) - 7 years/$28.05 million extension taking effect in 2010-11

2010-11 through 2011-12 (2 seasons): $7 million per season
2012-13 (1 season): $6.5 million
2013-14 (1 season): $5 million
2014-15 (1 season): $1.5 million
2015-16 through 2016-17 (2 seasons): $525,000
The line in the sand: Term (39 y.o. at end of deal), Dollars (2014-15 is a 70% drop-off, 2015-16 is a 65% drop-off), Front-Loading (2012-13: 30.2%, 2013-14: 33.8%)
Prediction: The drop-offs in this contract is enough cause for this contract to be DENIED. The Bruins are looking to trade him, so if this is denied, it may work out in the Bruins’ favor, who are trying to get under the salary cap.

Chris Pronger (Flyers) – 7 years/$34.45 million extension taking effect in 2010-11

2010-11 through 2011-12 (2 seasons): $7.6 million per season
2012-13 (1 season): $7.2 million
2013-14 (1 season): $7 million
2014-15 (1 season): $4 million
2015-16 through 2016-17 (2 seasons): $525,000
The line in the sand: Term (42 y.o. at end of deal), Dollars (2015-16 is a 86.9% drop-off – worse than Kovalchuk), Front-Loading (2013-14: 28.2%)
Prediction: The extension was signed before Pronger turned 35, but the extension takes effect around his 36th birthday. So, retirement will not ease the burden of the cap hit, but the drop-off is worse than Kovalchuk, as the final two years of the deal are about one-eighth of the fifth season’s salary. I am predicting this will be DENIED on those grounds.

Roberto Luongo (Canucks) – 12 years/$63.9 million extension taking effect in 2010-11

2010-11 (1 season): $10 million
2011-12 through 2017-18 (7 seasons): $6.7 million per season
2018-19 (1 season): $3.4 million
2019-20 (1 season): $1.6 million
2020-21 through 2021-22 (2 seasons): $1 million per season
The line in the sand: Term (43 y.o. at end of deal), Dollars (2019-20 is a 52.9% drop-off), Front-Loading (no seasons above 25%; highest percentage in 2017-18: 22.4%)
Prediction: I think this will be APPROVED because though the deal goes until Luongo turns 43, the drop-off is smooth enough to be approved.

Marian Hossa (Blackhawks) – 12 years/$63.3 million new contract starting in 2009-10

2009-10 through 2015-16 (7 seasons): $7.9 million per season
2016-17 (1 season): $4 million
2017-18 through 2020-21 (4 seasons): $1 million per season
The line in the sand: Term (39 y.o. at end of deal), Dollars (2014-15 is a 70% drop-off, 2015-16 is a 65% drop-off), Front-Loading (2012-13: 30.2%, 2013-14: 33.8%)
Prediction: The drop-off of the dollars is enough to deny the contract. The contract is also excessively front-loaded, which is also grounds for dismissal. But, the biggest sticking point of this or any contract under suspicion is that one year has already been played under this agreement. If they reverse the validity of this contract, the Blackhawks would have played the 2009-10 season with an illegal player for 57 games, in which the Blackhawks earned 77 points (36-16-5), not to mention the 16 wins in 22 games in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. If they deny this, expect fire and brimstone from just about everyone. So, I predict the NHL will figure that “discretion is the better part of valor” and APPROVE the contract.

It is very conceivable that the Marc Savard and Chris Pronger contracts could be overturned. I think the other two will be upheld. Roberto Luongo's deal is the lightest offender of the four and Marian Hossa has already played a season under his crazy contract.

Sports With The StatMan #72: Show Notes

2010-08-17T12:03:00.000-04:00

We analyzed the rivalry series of the past weekend (Red Sox/Yankees, Mets/Phillies). The Sox are keeping pace and inching closer to Tampa for the Wild Card. The Rookie of the Year races were spotlighted in the AL and NL. Also, Jets camp is a soap opera perfect for Hard Knocks. And, we kicked off our 2010 StatMan NFL Preview with a look at the NFC West and AFC West.

This is a new way of putting together the notes for our show. Instead of summarizing the show, I will try to break the show down into smaller pieces so you can listen to the segments of the show that interest you.

Here is the list of topics we talked about:

00:00-00:30 - Show Intro
00:30-12:00 – Two rivalry series over the weekend

00:30 – Phillies take two of three from the Mets at Citi Field
04:30 – Red Sox split at Yankee Stadium
10:00 – Terry Francona has kept the Red Sox in the race

12:00-14:00 – On Tap: Around the League
14:00-18:00 – On Tap: Jets talk and 2010 StatMan NFL Preview begins
18:00-24:30 – On Tap: Kovalchuk is a free agent again; possible ramifications for the Devils
24:30-29:00 – Show Information: upcoming episodes, how to find the show, recent blog posts
29:00-31:30 – Red Sox upcoming series and pitching probables
31:30-35:45 – Yankees upcoming series and pitching probables
35:45-42:30 – More Phillies-Mets talk: Mets bullpen issues
42:30-44:30, 46:00-46:30 – Mets upcoming series and pitching probables
44:30-46:00 – Phillies upcoming series and pitching probables
46:00-57:00 – MLB: Around the League

46:30 – Big Series in the next week
48:15 – Cardinals-Reds brawling at the top of the NL Central
50:15 – AL Central foes Twins-White Sox are very similar teams
51:00 – Strasburg returns and gets pounded by the Marlins
52:15 – Rookie of the Year races in AL/NL

57:00-1:00:45 – Show Recap and Information: how to get in touch with the show
1:00:45-1:35:15 – 2010 StatMan NFL Preview (2009 actual record/2010 predicted record)

1:00:45 – NFC West: Arizona (10-6/7-9) – Is it finally time for Matt Leinart?
1:05:00 – NFC West: St. Louis (1-15/5-11) – How good a pro will Sam Bradford be?
1:08:15 – NFC West: San Francisco (8-8/8-8) – How will Michael Crabtree fare in his first full season?
1:10:30 – NFC West: Seattle (5-11/6-10) – Will Pete Carroll bring his USC success to the Pacific Northwest?
1:14:00 – NFC West recap
1:14:30 – AFC West: Denver (8-8/8-8) – How will Elvis Dumervil’s injury impact Denver’s defense?
1:20:00 – AFC West: Kansas City (4-12/6-10) – Will the running back by committee work in Kansas City?
1:23:45 – AFC West: Oakland (5-11/5-11) – What will Al Davis do next?
1:28:15 – AFC West: San Diego (13-3/12-4) – Can Phillip Rivers finally get it done?
1:33:45 – Big Questions recap, predicted standings, next week’s preview

1:35:15-1:36:00 – Show Information
1:36:00-1:43:45 – MLB: Fantasy Update – Last 7 days (Carlos Gonzalez/Brandon Morrow), Season-to-date (Albert Pujols/Adam Wainwright)
1:43:45-1:46:15 – Show Close: Recap and Next Week’s Preview

Join us for our next episode (#73) of "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesday, August 18th, at 9pm Eastern on BlogTalkRadio. The ways to find the show are:

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
iTunes: type in "Sports With The StatMan" in the search

Also, follow the show on Twitter (http://twitter.com/gstatman) and read the Random Musings blog (http://gstatman.blogspot.com).

Have Injuries Taken Their Toll?

2010-08-13T11:32:00.000-04:00

There has been a lot of talk about the devastating injuries that have befallen the Red Sox and Phillies. Despite it all, both teams are not only alive, they are well in the chase for their respective Wild Card and division leads. But, how many injuries have they really had through the first four months?

MLB.com compiled a list of man-games lost from injury by each major league team and the results might surprise you. In games through Sunday, August 8th, the Red Sox are not first, second, or third in man-games lost, but their players have lost more time than any of the other local teams. The Red Sox place fourth behind Oakland (909 man-games), Washington (885), and the Los Angeles Angels (686) with 672 man-games lost this year from 18 players. The 18 players that have missed time are second in baseball behind Oakland (20). The amount of players is more concerning because of how pervasive the injury big has bitten the Red Sox this season. Three of their starting staff has spent time on the DL, as only Jon Lester and John Lackey have avoided injured status. The right side of the infield has missed significant time and Kevin Youkilis will make sure the amount of man-games lost will be at least one per game, as he is out for the rest of the season. The one healthy starting outfielder in the early part of the season was the perennially fragile J.D. Drew.

Still, even with all of these injuries, as of Wednesday, the Red Sox (66-49) were five games behind the Yankees (70-43) for not only the American League East lead, but also the best record in baseball. The Sox are 17 games over .500 with players like Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Josh Beckett, and Victor Martinez missing significant time. Of these four, everyone but Pedroia is back and the second baseman may return as soon as this Sunday. Yes, the Red Sox have some injuries, but Youkilis and Mike Cameron are the only current DLers that play pivotal roles on the team.

The Phillies have seemingly have had more injury issues than anyone, but look at MLB.com’s list and the Phillies are only tied for 17th in baseball in man-games lost with 402 games. They have the second-fewest amount of man-games lost per player (23.65), which means that the Phillies have had a lot of players with injuries to make up those 402 games. Philadelphia is tied for third with 17 players, one less than Boston’s 18 players. So, the injuries have been just about as pervasive, but they have not missed nearly as much time as the infirmed Red Sox players. The right side of the Philadelphia infield is currently down in Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. The rest of the infield has had stints on the DL, including Jimmy Rollins, who missed a month of time twice this year. While the top of the Phillies starting rotation has been safe, Jamie Moyer is out for the year and the bullpen has been in shambles with either Brad Lidge or Ryan Madson being out for the first half of the year. But, Chase Utley has been cleared to swing a bat, Ryan Howard is returning next week, and Shane Victorino will return to the lineup on Thursday. Moyer’s elbow injury is the only season-ending injury and the Phillies should be well by September.

The Phillies (63-50), despite these injuries, are only 2½ games out in the National League East and a single game behind San Francisco for the Wild Card. The bullpen is pitching better than they have all year. The team turned a negative with Moyer’s injury to a positive by acquiring Roy Oswalt at the deadline.

The comparison between the two teams shows that while the Phillies have had their share of injuries, the Red Sox have been hit harder by their bumps and bruises and have persevered better through it all. But, the Phillies will most likely be healthier in September and are more poised to make a postseason run because of the division in which they play.

Flying Off The Rails

2010-08-10T17:36:00.001-04:00

The 2010 season for the New York Mets has been a rollercoaster. The fans have been taken for a ride and I am not just talking about the sky-high ticket and concession prices. The season started terribly as they started off 4-8 when they returned from a road trip to face the Chicago Cubs. Enter Ike Davis. Davis was a defensive whirling dervish early, as his patented flip into the Citi Field first-base dugout became commonplace. The Mets were hot and catapulted themselves into first place before the end of April riding an eight-game winning streak. The Phillies came into town as the calendar turned to May and embarrassed the Mets’ two hottest starters in Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana. The Mets limped along for most of May until the final two games of the first Subway Series against the Yankees. Two wins there and a series shutout against the Phillies and the Mets were up and running again. The high lasted until late June, as the Mets carried the play by starting the month 13-2 and entering the last series of the month 17-6. But, the last series of the month was the only series outside of the United States. The series in San Juan against the Marlins would become the turning point of the entire year to this point.

The Mets salvaged the last game of the three-game set, but the artificial turf was held responsible for Jose Reyes’s oblique injury, which included him going on the Disabled List and breaking the continuity to the lineup the Mets had enjoyed since Davis debuted in April. From that fateful series in San Juan to the All-Star Break, the Mets were 0-3-1 in series, only gaining a split of a four-game series at Washington. After the Break, the Mets hit the West Coast. Those trips typically undo the Mets and the trip just about undid the 2010 season. In San Francisco, the Mets were stymied by their talented starters and lost three of four, winning the last game on Sunday in extra innings that was only in extra innings because of a bad “out” call at home plate in the home ninth. The hitters suffered in San Francisco and the whole team busted in Phoenix. Arizona swept the Mets and set the tone in the first game with a 13-2 spanking by a last-place team against a road-weary Met squad. In Los Angeles, Jason Bay suffered a concussion and has not returned since the diagnosis. Neither have the Mets after losing three of four at Chavez Ravine. They are 5-7 since the trip and have only won one series since San Juan.

From the highest of the highs in June to the lowest of the lows in San Juan and the West Coast, the rollercoaster season has now officially gone off the rails. The Mets were not buyers nor were they sellers at the Trading Deadline, which left them in limbo and minimized whatever impact this deadline could give them, either for this season if they wanted to make a playoff push or for future seasons by netting prospects for use in the future. The team that was supposed to compete at least for the Wild Card this year has been reduced to playing out the string and the questions are already being posed about why this happened. Some picked the Mets to be a .500 team. I picked them to win the Wild Card with 89 wins, which was a few games better than most prognosticators. I based my prediction on several factors:

The acquisition of Jason Bay
The rebirth of David Wright and Jose Reyes
The maturation of Mike Pelfrey and Jonathon Niese

Jason Bay has been a disappointment in his first year. Most free agents who come to New York need a year to get their feet wet. Next year will be pivotal for Bay’s overall success in New York, but this year was a feeling out period for both the player and the fans. David Wright has returned to his former self after psyching himself out of playing at the new Citi Field. The poor production stayed with him on the road and in the field last year, and when you add a scary beaning by Matt Cain late last season, he had a lot to overcome. Wright has come through valiantly this year. Jose Reyes made a cameo last season and missed the first series of the year, but he has played well in May. He has been streakier this year and his defense has hit a slump lately, but he is hardly the cause for the Mets’ overall struggles.

The real reason has been the pitching. The problems have been the lack of execution by the staff and the lack of planning by General Manager Omar Minaya. Mike Pelfrey started to be the number two pitcher he was slated to be last season and this season in April, but he started to teeter in May and fallen way off in June and July. Since June 13, Pelfrey has had only one quality start in his next nine starts. He is partly to blame for his rocky performance since May, but the problem really lies with Minaya. You could look at Minaya’s inactivity to get an established top-of-the-rotation starter to slot behind Johan Santana in each of the last two offseasons and the last two trading deadlines as a challenge made to Pelfrey to mature before our eyes. You could also look at the inaction as making the best of a bad situation. But, there is no reason why the Mets have to be in a bad situation. Minaya was the one who put the Mets in the bad situation. The Mets have one of the highest payrolls in baseball and Minaya used $36 of that payroll over three years to sign Oliver Perez before last season. Even at his best, he would never be considered a number two starter. For what Perez has actually been, he deserves to pitch every fifth day in Triple-A Buffalo.

Jonathan Niese has done the opposite of Pelfrey, starting slowly and really coming on since a stint on the Disabled List in late May. As of his most recent start on August 6^th, he was 6-3 since returning from the DL with 9 of 12 starts being a quality one and allowing more than three earned runs only twice in that span. He has been a bright spot on the staff along with R.A. Dickey, but they are mid-rotation pitchers. The Mets have watched the Phillies trade for Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt in the last 12 months while holding on to their top prospect, Dominic Brown. The Mets may not have had the minor league talent to make those deals, or maybe the Mets wanted to hold on to their talent, but you could say the Mets were two arms away from factoring in this year’s pennant race: an established starter and an eighth-inning reliever. Those arms did not have to be attained this past July. The seeds for this failure were sown a year and a half ago. By now, the pitcher would have been in his second season in New York, acclimated to the media, the new ballpark, and the demanding fans.

The time has already passed for this season’s team. Who knows if Ike Davis, Jonathon Niese, Ruben Tejada, Jenrry Mejia, Fernando Martinez, or Josh Thole will have a big impact on the big-league club or will be used as trading chips down the line, but the Mets gave up their 2010 season because they are betting on their upside.

Stay or Go: 2010 MLB Trading Deadline

2010-08-10T13:56:00.002-04:00

On the Sports With The StatMan show before the MLB Trading Deadline (#69, 7/23/10), we played “Stay or Go” and predicted which players rumored in trade talks would stay with their clubs or change teams at the deadline. A lot of big names were rumored to be traded and we had our share of deals made, especially right up against the deadline, but I expected more movement of big names. Overall, I was 10-4 on my predictions.

Here is the list we discussed on the show. First, the players I thought would STAY with their current teams:

Roy Oswalt: I predicted he would STAY with the Astros because I thought the asking price was too high. (GO: He was traded to the Phillies in the biggest deal of deadline week.)
Dan Haren: I predicted he would STAY with the Diamondbacks because of his no-trade clause including several contending teams. (GO: The Angels traded for Haren, which may not have helped their pennant hopes in the end since they were playing catch-up before the Haren deal was consummated.)
Adam Dunn: At last check before the show, he was trying to work out a long-term deal with the Nationals. I thought he would STAY and be part of the solution in Washington. (STAY: Dunn is still playing for Washington and they are still working on that deal.)
Jayson Werth: This was a tough one, as you could see the Phillies holding on to him to make a run at the NL East or ship him out to lure some more pitching. That being said, I thought he would STAY, mainly because of the bat needed in the lineup with Chase Utley out until late August. (STAY: They couldn’t part with a middle of the order bat with Utley (and now Ryan Howard) out of the lineup).
Fausto Carmona: I was betting on upside when I said he would STAY with the Indians, as Carmona does have significant upside. (STAY: Maybe the Indians realized they could not get anyone back with more upside than Carmona?)
Dan Uggla: He has a big power bat and I thought he would STAY with the Marlins because of the new stadium that is a season and a half away. (STAY: The Marlins kept their dynamite middle infield of Uggla and shortstop Hanley Ramirez intact.)
Corey Hart: The Brewers were asking for too much for someone who was a part-time player when the season started. His values were pushed to the extremes, so I thought he would STAY. (STAY: His power has leveled off, but he has been a more complete player in the last couple of months.)
Brett Myers: FOX Sports reported the Astros would have to be “overwhelmed” to trade Myers. The Astros like to hang on to their guys, so I predicted he would STAY. (STAY: Myers and the Astros are talking long-term deal.)

Now, for the players I thought would GO on to a different team:

Ted Lilly: I thought he would GO from the Cubs to a contending team. He was able to block a trade to 10 teams, so conceivably, the Cubs only had 20 teams to work with. (GO: He was traded to one of those 20 other teams, the Dodgers.)
Jake Westbrook: He was a veteran pitcher on a bad team, which is perfect for a possible move. I thought he would GO from the Indians. (GO: The Cardinals came calling and Westbrook rounds out the pitching staff nicely. He went in a three-team deal with Cardinal OF Ryan Ludwick going to San Diego.)
Mike Lowell: He was not getting playing time, so I predicted him to GO from the Red Sox. Detroit was looking for a third baseman after the injury to Brandon Inge. (STAY: Good thing he stayed. Kevin Youkilis is gone for the year and Lowell will get most of the playing time at first.)
Jeff Francoeur: From power source to a platoon player, Francoeur was my pick to GO from the Mets after Carlos Beltran returned to the lineup. (STAY: Jason Bay was injured in Los Angeles and has not returned to date. He may miss the rest of the season. In the meantime, Francoeur is getting regular at-bats again, but he might still get moved in August if he clears waivers to make room for young outfielder Fernando Martinez.)
Octavio Dotel: Most contenders need bullpen help and Dotel was the best closer on a bad team this year. These guys normally get moved, so I picked him to GO from the Pirates. (GO: The Dodgers did this last year with George Sherrill, who has faded into fantasy oblivion. The same now applies to Dotel.)
Kerry Wood: I thought he would GO from Cleveland by the end of July, not even waiting for a possible August deal that could happen since he would have most likely slipped through waivers. (GO: The Yankees turned Wood from a closer to a possible 8th-inning guy, which would turn Joba Chamberlain to a spare part.)

The Islander Fan’s View of the Kovalchuk Saga

2010-08-09T17:14:00.000-04:00

Islander fans were given false hope when a simple inquiry by General Manager Garth Snow was taken to mean the Islanders were involved in the bidding for Ilya Kovalchuk’s services. An Atlanta Thrasher for all but the last 27 regular season games and first playoff round last year, he was a New Jersey Devil until his free agency started on July 1st. Kovalchuk’s demands were made plain for any General Manager to see. He wanted $100 million. As with a lot of big name free agents in this salary cap age, the teams that would be willing to spend it did not have the cap room and the teams that had the cap room would not spend so much money on one player.

The players in the market for Kovalchuk were believable except for the Islanders. The Devils were in the running to sign him long-term and had the advantage of seeing him fit in well with the team, scoring 27 points in those 27 games and he was one of the few players that had a good playoff series in the Devils’ 5-game loss to the Flyers in the first round. The Los Angeles Kings were also very interested in Kovalchuk as the Kings are ready to move from a lower-level playoff team to an elite team in the Western Conference. But, that kind of money was too rich for the Kings under the salary cap. Enter the Islanders. They have nothing but cap room, even when you consider some of the youth coming due for their next contracts over the next couple of years. The Islanders could easily afford Kovalchuk in a 10-year/$100 million type of deal. But, this would have been about as out-of-character as Garth Snow would have been in his entire Islanders’ management tenure to date.

Instead of channeling his inner Mike Milbury, Snow was patient and only “inquired”. But, the speculation started and Islander fans hopped right on the bandwagon. Did the Islander fans feel used? Maybe. Did they think they honestly had a chance? Yes. Owner Charles Wang has shown a propensity for making the unthinkable deal. Alexei Yashin was signed to a 10-year deal before the 2001-02 season. Rick DiPietro signed a “lifetime” 15-year contract before the 2006-07 season. The Yashin experiment ended in a buyout the Islanders are still paying to Yashin. DiPietro’s deal was the first of the “lifetime” contracts to franchise players. Since the deal was signed, it looked like a sound deal for the Islanders, but several injuries later, the deal has been laughable as the Isles continue to wait for DiPietro to get healthy.

While the fans may have thought Snow or the media toyed with their emotions, it was probably a good thing the Islanders did not reel him in. While Kovalchuk would have fit within the cap, he did not fit what the Islanders were trying to do, which is to build from within and grow together. Kovalchuk would have pushed the fast-forward button on the rebuild, which is not a bad thing. But, Coach Scott Gordon’s rules certainly would have had to have been different for Kovalchuk. With one player so far above the others in pay and NHL accomplishment, the player would have his own rules.

After a long, drawn-out process of courting, offers, pulled offers, and counteroffers, the Devils managed to sign Kovalchuk to a landmark 17-year/$102 million deal. But, even before the press coverage to announce the signing, the NHL was in touch with the Devils, letting them know they would fight the validity of the deal. Now, it is before an arbitrator to make a decision on whether the contract will stand. The decision is due by the end of the day on Monday. It is just as well the Devils or another team gets Kovalchuk. The biggest issue for Islander fans over the next 17 (or fewer) years is not that he is not an Islander, but that the Isles will face Kovalchuk six times a season for the next several years.

So, how should you root for the arbitration decision if you are Islander fan? Hope the arbitrator overturns the decision and declares Kovalchuk a free agent. Then, hope Kovalchuk and the Kings can figure out a way to work things out quickly before a team who is willing to pay Kovalchuk’s asking price, somehow clears up enough cap room to sign him. It would be tough, but the Rangers could always try to move salary and sign him. Having Kovalchuk inside the division would be the biggest problem, whether it is with the Devils or the Rangers.

2010 NHL Amateur Draft: First Round Predictions

2010-06-25T17:20:00.003-04:00

We talked about the first 10 picks on Sports With The StatMan (#65). The only three local teams with picks in the first round will select in the Top 10.

My guess is that Taylor Hall will go #1 to Edmonton, leaving Tyler Seguin for Boston at #2. The Islanders could use a big defenseman and I am predicting 6'4" Erik Gudbranson to be available at #5. The electric "El Nino", Nino Niederreiter would be great on Broadway at #10 if the Rangers can pick him there. Here are the rest of my predictions for the first round:

2010 NHL Amateur Draft: StatMan's 1st Round Predictions
Pick Prediction Current team
   1 LW Taylor Hall, Windsor Edmonton Oilers
   2 C Tyler Seguin, Plymouth Boston Bruins (from Toronto)
   3 D Cam Fowler, Windsor Florida Panthers
   4 C Mikael Granlund, Finland Columbus Blue Jackets
   5 D Erik Gudbranson, Kingston New York Islanders
   6 RW Brett Connolly, Prince George Tampa Bay Lightning
   7 D Brandon Gormley, Moncton Carolina Hurricanes
   8 C Alexander Burmistrov, Barrie Atlanta Thrashers
   9 D Derek Forbort, USA U-18 Minnesota Wild
  10 RW Nino Niederreiter, Portland New York Rangers
  11 G Jack Campbell, USHL Dallas Stars
  12 C Nick Bjugstad, USHS Anaheim Ducks
  13 C Ryan Johansen, Portland Phoenix Coyotes (from Calgary)
  14 C Emerson Etem, Medicine Hat St. Louis Blues
  15 D Mark Pysyk, Edmonton Florida Panthers (from Boston)
  16 RW Vladimir Tarasenko, Novosibirsk Ottawa Senators
  17 C Jeffrey Skinner, Kitchener Colorado Avalanche
  18 RW Austin Watson, Peterborough Nashville Predators
  19 D Dylan McIlrath, Moose Jaw Los Angeles Kings
  20 D Jarren Tinordi, US NTDP Pittsburgh Penguins
  21 C Riley Sheahan, Notre Dame Detroit Red Wings
  22 G Calvin Pickard, Seattle Phoenix Coyotes
  23 C John McFarland, Sudbury Buffalo Sabres
  24 LW Quinton Howden, Moose Jaw Chicago Blackhawks (from New Jersey via Atlanta)
  25 D Alex Petrovic, Red Deer Vancouver Canucks
  26 C Evgeny Kuznetsov, Chelyabinsk Washington Capitals
  27 C Tyler Pitlick, Minnesota St-Mankato Montreal Canadiens
  28 C Brock Nelson, USHS San Jose Sharks
  29 RW Beau Bennett, Penticton Anaheim Ducks (from Philadelphia)
  30 D Jon Merrill, US NTDP Chicago Blackhawks

UPDATE (6/26, 9am): After the first two picks, the draft board was thrown out the window. Picks 3-10 were a toss-up. For the locals, Seguin went #2 to the Bruins as expected, but the Islanders selected Nino Niederreiter at #5 and the Rangers took Dylan McIlrath at #10. I thought the big defenseman Erik Gudbranson would be available at #5, but he went to Florida at #3. I predicted Niederreiter to be around for the Rangers to select him at #10, but the Islanders pounced on "El Nino".

The Rangers took the tough defenseman, as Glen Sather and company surprised everyone by taking a tough defenseman in McIlrath who had 16 fighting majors for Moose Jaw last season, more than double anyone else in major junior hockey last year.

If you thought Niederreiter went early at #5, you may be right. He might have been available at #7 or #8. If you thought McIlrath went early at #10, I know you are right. McIlrath was ranked #26 by the Hockey News and predicted to maybe sneak into the first round. The Rangers were looking for a certain type of player and McIlrath fits the bill for a defensive corps that needs some toughness. The Islanders needed scoring, as they have some defensive prospects coming up, so Niederreiter's style and flash should help the Islanders move forward.

The Islanders also traded both second-round picks to the Blackhawks to capture the #30 pick, which closed the day of drafting in Los Angeles. Brock Nelson went to the Isles with that selection. He put up monster numbers in Minnesota at the high-school level, but he will be tested next season at the University of North Dakota.

Here is the full list of first round picks from Friday night.

I did manage to get nine out of 30 picks on the nose. They were:
Pick Player NHL Team

1 LW Taylor Hall, Windsor Edmonton Oilers

2 C Tyler Seguin, Plymouth Boston Bruins (from Toronto)

6 RW Brett Connolly, Prince George Tampa Bay Lightning

8 C Alexander Burmistrov, Barrie Atlanta Thrashers

11 G Jack Campbell, USHL Dallas Stars
16 RW Vladimir Tarasenko, Novosibirsk St. Louis Blues

18 RW Austin Watson, Peterborough Nashville Predators

21 C Riley Sheahan, Notre Dame Detroit Red Wings

26 C Evgeny Kuznetsov, Chelyabinsk Washington Capitals

Join me on the next Sports With The StatMan (#66), as we break down the NHL Amateur Draft for the locals and get ready for the free agency frenzy in the NHL on July 1st.

Opinion: Ortiz should start planning exit strategy

2010-05-21T14:29:00.000-04:00

There are a lot of players in every sport that hang on too long. Some guys try to squeeze every at bat, inning, goal, touchdown, and -- most of all -- dollar -- out of their big-league career. I could not say I would not do the same if I could. But, if David Ortiz wants to keep his legend intact with the Boston Red Sox, this should be his last year in a Red Sox uniform.

Recent failures may never tarnish his golden moments, the ones that will live and thrive in the hearts of Red Sox Nation forever. But, his early-season struggles of the past two years have taken some of the starch out of Ortiz and how he has been received by the fans and the media.

He clearly does not want to be benched or substituted for Mike Lowell or anyone else. He does not appreciate the media writing that he is washed up. But, the Boston that Ortiz knows is not the Boston of earlier generations. This media corps has seen a lot of Red Sox success. It was not too long ago that the Boston writers would not have given this much of a leash to someone like Ortiz. But, Ortiz is a conquering hero and someone who deserves months or even seasons to get it right. That was last season.

This year, Ortiz had a similar frigid start to the season, and the writers are at his throat. The fans have followed a little more cautiously. How much longer can the Boston media coexist with Ortiz? For all of his successes, Boston writers will state he has not been the same since Manny Ramirez was traded. It is hard to argue that point. Jason Bay and Victor Martinez have not provided the protection that Ramirez once provided Big Papi.

The best should leave on their own terms. Leaving at the top of one’s game rarely occurs. For every Barry Sanders leaving the Lions and Michael Jordan leaving the Bulls the first time, there are countless has-beens who should have been enjoying retirement or at least escaped from the city from which they are eternally attached before they had to leave.

It is already too late for Ortiz to leave with all of his legend intact. The second one of a dynamite duo rarely does. Ramirez left first and he basically forced his way out of town, but the fans have to look lovingly at Ramirez from afar, wishing he was still hitting in the middle of the Red Sox lineup. Ortiz gets what is left behind and has not been able to recapture the same magic, personally or as a team, since Ramirez left.

Before it gets too much worse, Ortiz should start planning his exit strategy. Maybe Ortiz can have a solid three-quarters of the season and leave on a high note. If he muddles around .200 for the rest of the year, the decision will be made for him.

Sports With The StatMan #59: Show Notes

2010-05-19T17:32:00.001-04:00

Timeline
00:00-25:00 – Flyers come back from 3-0 in series and in Game 7 to stun Bruins
25:00-33:00 - Montreal slays another giant in the playoffs, Flyers-Montreal preview
33:00-38:00 - Chicago owns Canucks in Vancouver
38:00-46:30 - San Jose getting tougher, San Jose-Chicago preview, Predictions
46:30-55:00 - Yankees facing the best of the AL Central
55:00-58:30 - My trip to Target Field
58:30-64:00 - Mets facing divisional foes
64:00-70:45 - Red Sox: Beckett issues, Ortiz heating up
70:45-75:00 - Phillies: Injury news, Manuel talks about sign-stealing
75:00-81:00 - Fantasy Minute
81:00-82:30 - Final Note

Main Points
00:00-25:00 – Flyers come back from 3-0 in series and in Game 7 to stun Bruins

How big of a loss was this in Boston sports history?
Players returning from injury in Simon Gagne and Michael Leighton made the difference in the series
Gagne gave the Flyers the fuel to push them over the top
Flyers coach Peter Laviolette is playing everything just right, evidenced by the timeout called down 3-0 in Game 7, maneuvering around goaltending injuries
The only way the Flyers could get home ice is this very matchup (#7 Flyers vs. #8 Montreal)
What will change for the Bruins before next season?
What happens now to the psyche of the team, especially young goaltender Tuukka Rask? If you remember, Brian Boucher was an up-and-coming goaltender for the Flyers with some playoff success before blowing a 3-1 series lead against the Devils in 2000 stunted his growth.

25:00-33:00 - Montreal slays another giant in the playoffs, Flyers-Montreal preview

Jaroslav Halak carried the Habs against Washington in the first round, but it was a team effort in Game 7 at Pittsburgh (W, 5-2)
Hal Gill and Josh Gorges are the defensive tandem getting the attention for Montreal in the playoffs. Gill was with Pittsburgh last year and has been called on to shut down the likes of Ovechkin and the big guns on Pittsburgh.
Philadelphia loves to score goals on chaotic goal-mouth scrambles. It will be up to Gill and Gorges, along with the rest of the Montreal defense, to clear the crease and make sure Halak can see Flyer shots.
Cinderella teams that ride a hot goaltender have the tendency to turn into a pumpkin in the Conference Final
PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA in 7

33:00-38:00 - Chicago owns Canucks in Vancouver

Chicago was the only home team to win in this series as they won Game 2
Chicago scored 12 goals in Games 3 and 4 and won both games in Vancouver
Roberto Luongo has failed against Chicago as he has tried to build a reputation of a good playoff goaltender
Chicago is in the Western/Campbell Conference Final in consecutive years for the first time since 1989-90

38:00-46:30 - San Jose getting tougher, San Jose-Chicago preview, Predictions

Marleau and Thornton have played well in these playoffs
San Jose shed their playoff failure label after handling defending Western Conference champs (Detroit) in five games
The kids are still alright in Chicago
PREDICTION: CHICAGO in 7
Through the Second Round: 7-5 in Playoffs, 2 exact hits (winner and games)

46:30-55:00 - Yankees facing the best of the AL Central

Phil Hughes is pitching like he belongs in the Big Three of the Yankee starting rotation
Hughes’ inning count is rising quickly, but he is a lot more economical than Joba Chamberlain was as a starter
Alex Rodriguez hit a grand slam to pass Frank Robinson for 7th all-time in HR (587); the grand slam tied him with Eddie Murray for 3rd in GSHR with 19 (Lou Gehrig 23, Manny Ramirez 21)
Will the next generation of kids remember and be able to recite the home run career leaders? Will kids remember 762 like they remembered 755 and 714? Will it take a chase of Bonds for the top spot to ingrain 762 in our heads or have steroids taken the bloom off the rose forever?

55:00-58:30 - My trip to Target Field

Early returns on how the ballpark is playing: ball is carrying down the lines, not in the alleys or straight away center
Champions Club has all of the amenities, but only one bathroom

58:30-64:00 - Mets facing divisional foes

The great comeback game against Washington, in which the Mets scored 6 runs in the 8th, was the only win of the week for the Mets.
Ike Davis must have patented his foul pop catch and subsequent dugout flip. He has done this three times now and, New York, those things get candy bars named after you.
The time has come to take Oliver Perez out of the rotation. In his last two starts, he has allowed 21 baserunners and recorded only 20 outs.

64:00-70:45 - Red Sox: Beckett issues, Ortiz heating up

Daisuke Matsuzaka looked like the Dice-K of old using his fastball in his last start, striking out 8 of 9 Blue Jays on fastball
Josh Beckett has a back issue and will skip his turn this week. He is scheduled to go Tuesday against the Yankees. Is his back an issue or did they give him some time off to figure things out?
Even though the Red Sox have Jon Lester and John Lackey, they need a healthy and effective Beckett to win
David Ortiz is starting to hit for power, hitting two against Detroit on Friday night. Since hitting .143 in April, he has four multi-hit games since then to raise his average to .213. Ortiz had his 34th multi-HR game on Friday, which is third in Sox history (Ted Williams 37, Jim Rice 35). Ortiz is a Red Sox all-timer because of his playoff performance, but he is starting to get those longevity statistics as well, even though he is hanging on.
Manager Terry Francona will not commit to returning Ortiz as the everyday DH. Mike Lowell (.269-1-9) has gotten very little playing time. Adrian Beltre is still entrenched at 3B. Beltre is hitting .311, but he is not hitting for power.

70:45-75:00 - Phillies: Injury news, Manuel talks about sign-stealing

Brad Lidge may have some elbow issues, which could be a big problem because with Ryan Madson on the DL and J.C. Romero best in a setup role, who would close games?
Jimmy Rollins started his rehab today and could return for next week’s (May 17-23) homestand
Manager Charlie Manuel responded to the Rockies accusing the Phillies of stealing signs at home. Manuel asked how the Mets play so well at home and said the Mets should be checked for stealing signs. The only thing missing from the Mets-Phillies rivalry is a full-out bench-clearing brawl. Eventually, the off-the-field stuff will probably escalate to on-the-field actions.
MetsBanter.com tells you what they really think of Charlie Manuel

75:00-81:00 - Fantasy Minute

Last 7 Days (week ending Friday, May 14th)

Hitters: 1. Ichiro Suzuki SEA 42 FPTS*, 2. Mark Teixeira NYY 36, 3. Hunter Pence HOU 34, 4. Casey McGehee MIL 33, 5. Alex Rodriguez NYY 32
Pitchers: 1. Dallas Braden OAK 54 FPTS* (perfect game), T-2. Johnny Cueto CIN 47 (1-hitter), T-2. Joe Saunders LAA 47, T-4. Jeremy Guthrie BAL 46, T-4. Mat Latos SDG 46 (1-hitter)

Season-To-Date (through Friday, May 14th)

Hitters: 1. Andre Ethier LAD 154 FPTS* (overtakes Braun for the season lead), 2. Ryan Braun MIL 150, 3. Miguel Cabrera DET 138, 4. Vernon Wells TOR 134, T-5. Evan Longoria TBY 130, T-5. Justin Morneau MIN 130
Pitchers: 1. Roy Halladay PHL 201 FPTS* (1 more start than rest of starters in Top 5), 2. Ubaldo Jimenez COL 182, 3. Tim Lincecum SFO 176, 4. Adam Wainwright STL 159, 5. Matt Capps WSH 158 (only reliever in Top 5)

81:00-82:30 - Final Note

Dallas Braden is still talking about Alex Rodriguez. Braden’s 15 minutes of fame just got extended with a perfect game last week.
Mark your calendars: the Athletics have two more series with the Yankees this season. The next time they meet is a three-game set in Oakland (July 5-7) and they also have a four-game series at Yankee Stadium (August 30-September 2). There may be some fireworks.

Next Week
We will return to our regular spot on Wednesday night at 9pm Eastern time. On the show (#60), the Flyers continue their charge toward the Stanley Cup. We’ll talk Conference Finals in the NHL. We will talk baseball, with the mini two-game series between the Yankees and Red Sox over with and it is Oliver Perez’s night to start, so we will see if Perez is still in the rotation. We will also preview Interleague play 2010 and see if the American League will dominate yet again. All of this and more on Sports With The StatMan.

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:

Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
“Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
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Also, check out MetsBanter.com, which features coverage from our resident Mets expert, Wills Gillan, as well as the StatMan.

Send your pro or fantasy questions or comments on the Show Page or the “Random Musings” blog, or you can send me a tweet. I’ll be sure to get back to you. Also, check the show page for times and schedules of our one-hour show and our latest blog entries, such as our Fantasy Hockey Edition and our Random Musings weekly sports column.

Upcoming Schedule
• Wednesday, May 19th, 9pm ET - Sports With The StatMan #60
• Wednesday, May 26th, 9pm ET - Sports With The StatMan #61
• Wednesday, June 2nd, 9pm ET - Sports With The StatMan #62

2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Conference Final Predictions

2010-05-16T21:50:00.000-04:00

CONFERENCE SEMIFINAL (2nd Round) RESULTS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#8 Montreal defeats #4 Pittsburgh, 4 games to 3
The defending Stanley Cup Champions did not get out of the second round, as the Penguins dropped Game Seven at home. Montreal got through Washington on the wings of a 3-1 comeback and the goaltending of Jaroslav Halak. But, Montreal won a second Game Seven on the road because of more than just goaltending. A 4-0 lead early in the second period made the final game anti-climactic.

#7 Philadelphia defeats #6 Boston, 4 games to 3
It was a tale of two series. The Bruins had a 3-0 lead and held all of the cards. The Flyers' Simon Gagne came back from injury in Game 4 and finished the series with four goals in the last four games of the series, including two game-winners. Brian Boucher's luck was about to run out, losing the first three games before winning Game Four and was injured in Game Five. Michael Leighton came off the bench, back from injury, and carried the Flyers in goal the rest of the series, making history along the way.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 San Jose defeats #5 Detroit, 4 games to 1
San Jose has shed their labels of playoff failures after this series, making it to the Conference Finals and they got there with their stars being stars. Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau had great series and Joe Pavelski continued his big play in the second season. Detroit was tired after a seven-game series win over Phoenix, but San Jose was rested and ready to go. The Sharks built a 3-0 lead and won in five.

#2 Chicago defeats #3 Vancouver, 4 games to 2
Chicago owns Roberto Luongo, especially in Vancouver. In the Conference Semifinals, Chicago has now defeated Vancouver in two straight playoffs, making it to consecutive Conference Finals for the first time since 1989-90. Chicago is young and Vancouver's defense could not keep up. The beat goes on in Vancouver with yet another playoff loss, but Chicago's renaissance continues.

CONFERENCE FINAL (3rd Round) PREDICTIONS
EASTERN CONFERENCE: #7 Philadelphia vs. #8 Montreal - PHILADELPHIA in 7 games
Flyer fans were dejected after being down 3-0 to the Bruins. They were skeptical after wins in Game Four and Game Five. After a Game Six win at home, the city was captivated. Now, after doing the very, very improbable, the city is electric. Welcome to the Conference Finals, which open Sunday in Philadelphia. Montreal has played the maximum amount of games in both playoff series so far, so I think this will go the distance. Montreal has won two Game Seven's on the road, but Philadelphia has the electricity of its fans and its city behind them. Flyers in seven.

WESTERN CONFERENCE: #1 San Jose vs. #2 Chicago - CHICAGO in 7 games
Chicago has the longest drought of any team left in these playoffs. A loss to San Jose would make it 50 years, but the Blackhawks are on their way back to prominence. Despite their cap troubles, the time is now for Chicago. Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, and Brent Seabrook are the stars, but Antti Niemi has played better than expected in the first two rounds. Both teams are running on all cylinders, but there is magic in Chicago. I am picking the series to go the full seven games and for Chicago to win the deciding game on the road. Blackhawks in seven.

Join me on Sports With The StatMan (#60) this Wednesday night at 9pm ET. For the full wrap on the Conference Semifinal round, listen to last week's show on the show page (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan).

2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Conference Semifinal Predictions

2010-04-29T21:53:00.001-04:00

CONFERENCE QUARTERFINAL (1st Round) RESULTS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#8 Montreal defeats #1 Washington, 4 games to 3
The only Game 7 in the Eastern Conference proved to be the biggest upset in these playoffs. The Canadiens became the first #8 team ever to come back from a 3-1 deficit in Stanley Cup Playoff history, providing a moment worthy of a 100th anniversary in season number 101.

#7 Philadelphia defeats #2 New Jersey, 4 games to 1
The Devils could not break through against Brian Boucher, which frustrated the team and led to a "resignation" by now former coach Jacques Lemaire. The special teams told the story, as the Devils went 4-for-32 while the Flyers scored four more goals in one less opportunity with the man advantage (8-for-31).

#6 Boston defeats #3 Buffalo, 4 games to 2
In a series that got a little rough-and-tumble, the Bruins survived against the Sabres for the upset. Tuukka Rask outplayed Ryan Miller when all was said and done in the series for Rask's first four career playoff victories.

#4 Pittsburgh defeats #5 Ottawa, 4 games to 2
Pittsburgh turned the corner against Ottawa, but Ottawa hung tough to force a Game Six. But, once Pittsburgh netted seven against the Senators, the series definitely turned in the Penguins favor.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 San Jose defeats #8 Colorado, 4 games to 2
Colorado had a 2-1 lead after San Jose defenseman cleared a puck into his own net to give the Avalanche a 1-0 overtime win. But, that was the last game the Avalanche won in the series and the Sharks outscored Colorado the rest of the way, 12-3.

#2 Chicago defeats #7 Nashville, 4 games to 2
Chicago goaltender Antti Niemi was a strength instead of a liability in the first round, shutting out Nashville twice. Pekka Rinne also played well for the Predators, but their scorers came up a little short.

#3 Vancouver defeats #6 Los Angeles, 4 games to 2
The Kings had a good thing going, leading the series 2-1 after Game 3. But, just like the Sharks-Avalanche series, the Canucks kicked it into high gear and won three in a row to send Los Angeles home for the summer. Vancouver blitzed Los Angeles 17-8 in the final three games of the series.

#5 Detroit defeats #4 Phoenix, 4 games to 3
The only Game 7 in the Western Conference was not much of a matchup in the final game. But, the series was point and counterpoint in the first six games with the Wings holding a 20-17 overall goal lead. Detroit pulled away in Game 7, winning 6-1 and pushing the veteran playoff performers to the next round.

CONFERENCE SEMIFINAL (2nd Round) PREDICTIONS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#4 Pittsburgh vs. #8 Montreal - PITTSBURGH in 6 games
Montreal outlasted Washington and that could make them stronger. But, how can you expect Montreal to beat two top-end world-class teams in a row? You can't. Pens in six.

#6 Boston vs. #7 Philadelphia - BOSTON in 6 games
If Boston thought their first round series with Buffalo was tough, this one against Philadelphia will be even tougher. The Bruins have Marc Savard back on the ice and the team is poised to continue its run. Boston and Philadelphia both have hot goalies, but I am predicting that Brian Boucher will turn into a pumpkin first. Bruins in six.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 San Jose vs. #5 Detroit - SAN JOSE in 6 games
The Sharks may have gotten over their playoff struggles, but it will take more than one series to shake that bad reputation. The Red Wings have the playoff pedigree, but they are tired and their goalie, brilliant as he has been at times this season, is still a rookie. The Wings still have a lot left in the tank, but the Sharks might be finding their game. If the first line can click, the Sharks will win. My pick: Sharks in six.

#2 Chicago vs. #3 Vancouver - CHICAGO in 7 games
This series is a rematch from last season, when Chicago upset Vancouver. Chicago is the favorite this time around. Olympic brethren will face off as Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook, and Duncan Keith go up against gold medal teammate in Vancouver's Roberto Luongo. This year, will it be a repeat or another upset? I think this series will go the distance and I will go with the repeat. Blackhawks in seven.

Sports With The StatMan #47: Show Notes

2010-02-19T15:07:00.000-05:00

Timeline

00:00-10:30 – Open: Olympic Hockey is ramping up

10:30-29:00 – The three magic words we long to hear: Pitchers and Catchers

29:00-63:30 – 2009 NFL Season In Review

63:30-78:30 – 2010 MLB Preview: American League West

78:30-81:30 – Close: Next Week and Upcoming Schedule

Main Points

00:00-10:30 – Open: Olympic Hockey is ramping up

We got on the air just as Canada was defeating

Switzerland

in the shootout in their preliminary round game, 3-2. We talk about the preliminary round thus far, the strength shown by the Canadians and the Americans, and which teams might squeak into the quarterfinals.

10:30-29:00 – The three magic words we long to hear: Pitchers and Catchers

The rite of Spring is here and teams are starting to file down to Florida and Arizona to start Spring Training. The team that needs the most practice on fundamentals is the Mets and they report to Florida last out of all of the local teams. A bad decision, to be sure, but you are seeing that several Mets are already down there voluntarily. David Wright and Johan Santana are starting to talk it up, too. Is this the start of a new page in Met history or is this more of the same? You’ll remember Carlos Beltran pegged the Mets as the team to beat in the National League East before the 2008 season and that did not work for the Mets. This time, jobs are on the line for the GM and the Manager.

The main questions for each local camp. What will 2010 bring for these teams?

Mets: Question marks about the starting rotation after Johan Santana

Yankees: Moving on without Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui and the battle for the 5th spot in the rotation

Phillies: Doc Halladay replaces Cliff Lee atop the rotation, but Cole Hamels has to be better than he was last year

Red Sox: Mike Lowell is still on the team, but where will he end up?

29:00-63:30 – 2009 NFL Season In Review

Top 10 findings of our pre-season predictions

10. Overall: Pre-season game-by-game picks: 148-108 (.578); Picking every game week-by-week: 177-79 (.691) (+29)

9. Playoffs: picked PHL to lose in WC round

8. Picked ARZ-GBY playoff matchup

7. Biggest misses: CIN (+7), NO (+6, wins SB)

6. NFC: Picked 4 of 6 playoff teams (missed DAL, NO), 3 exact seeds (ARZ 4th, GBY 5th, PHL 6th)

5. AFC: Picked 4 of 6 playoff teams (missed NYJ, CIN), 1 exact seed (BAL 6th)

4. Picked very poorly for NE (-3), NYJ (+3), NYG (-3); close on PHL (+1)

3. Picked within 1 game of exact won-lost record for 13 teams

2. Picked 4 teams correctly on won-lost record (BUF, CLE, DEN, ATL)

1. Right on Colts getting to Super Bowl (wrong in picking them as WC and to win SB)

We also revisited each NFL team’s Big Question we asked in August, what those answers were, and proposed an Offseason Question for each of the 32 teams. Find your team in the podcast, as I went division-by-division, starting with the AFC East and ending with the NFC West.

63:30-78:30 – 2010 MLB Preview: American League West

The opening installment of our baseball preview started this week with a look at the American League West. We reviewed the comings and goings for each team, broke down what each team has on the field, and made a prediction for finish in the division and an over/under pick on wins. Here are the predictions:

(listed in order of last season’s finish)

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2009: 97-65; 2010: O/U 87.5 wins) – Prediction: 1st, Over 87.5 (92-70)

2. Texas Rangers (2009: 87-75, 10 GB; 2010: O/U 77.5 wins) – Prediction: 3rd, Over 77.5 (85-77)

3. Seattle Mariners (2009: 85-77, 12 GB; 2010: O/U 79.5 wins) – Prediction: 2nd, Over 79.5 (90-70)

4. Oakland Athletics (2009: 75-87, 22 GB; 2010: O/U 81.5 wins) – Prediction: 4th, Under 81.5 (72-90)

78:30-81:30 – Close: Next Week’s Show Preview, Upcoming Schedule

Next Week

We will return to our regular spot on Sunday night at 8pm Eastern time. On the show (#48), we will wrap up our Olympic hockey talk, as the Gold Medal Game will be earlier in the day. We will also prepare for the return of the NHL on March 1st. Also, we’ll break down another baseball division. Next week, we’ll break down the National League West.

Upcoming Schedule

• By Saturday: “Random Musings” Sports Column (blog)

• On Sunday: Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Hockey Edition – Week 20 (blog)

• Sunday, February 28th, 8-9pm ET: Sports With The StatMan: No. 48 (live show)

* All blogs will be available on our “secondary” blog, which is called “Random Musings from the StatMan” (http://gstatman.blogspot.com). You can listen to the show live at our show page (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan) or download the podcast, which is normally available 15 minutes after the show, either from the show page or from iTunes (search: Sports With The StatMan).

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:

• Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan

• Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman

• “Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com

Send your pro or fantasy questions or comments on the Show Page or the “Random Musings” blog, or you can send me a tweet. I’ll be sure to get back to you. Also, check the show page for times and schedules of our one-hour show and our latest blog entries, such as our Fantasy Hockey Edition and our Random Musings weekly sports column.