Now is the time to
dream. Now is the time to hope. Especially for fans of teams that did not
make the playoffs and are starved for young, cheap talent, today is your Hockey
Christmas. Today is the NHL Entry
Draft. The cast of 17-year-olds are
projected, quizzed, and fawned over.
Some will work out, others will flame out. But, this is the day where franchise turning
points are made, for better or worse.
Until tonight, a
draft pick is an unknown asset, possibly flipped for an actual name. If the draft pick is made, the player is
given the hyperbolic treatment with comments such as "he hits like Dion
Phaneuf" or "he has the hands of a John Tavares". The players have a few years to fill out and
find their place in their organizations, but fans acquaint themselves to the
newbie from Day One. One message to the
fans, though: Don't fall in love. No
matter how many capsules you read or YouTube highlights you watch, that player
you think would make a perfect first-line center or top-pair defenseman might
just go to your rival. The truth is no
one really knows whether the talent will ever be realized. I must admit, as an Islanders fan, I had
sleepless nights over Dan Blackburn and Hugh Jessiman. I'm just sayin'.
The 2012 NHL Entry
Draft (Round 1: Friday 7pm, NBC Sports Network; Rounds 2-7: Saturday 10am, NHL
Network) has a few aces at the top of the draft list and is supposed to be a
relatively shallow pool of talent. But, they
always say that. This is what scouts are
paid for: to find the diamonds in the rough.
The fifth-round pick who turns into an All-Star. The seventh-round pick who ends up carving
out a 10-year NHL career. They are out
there in every draft.
Locally, the
Islanders are the first of the five local teams we cover (three New York-area
teams plus Boston and Philadelphia) to select and they will go fourth, barring
a trade, which is not out of the realm of possibility. There could be two types of trades with the
Isles this year. One we have seen from
GM Garth Snow and one we have not. If
Snow and his scouting department are targeting a below-the-radar type like Josh
Bailey was in 2008, Snow could move down and stockpile picks. But, in 2008, the reason for stockpiling the
picks was to kick off the rebuild and fertilize the farm system with talented
players. That is already done. Bridgeport is looking strong.
So, my guess is that
the more likely scenario is to package that pick with a player or two to get a
name with years left on a contract.
During Snow's tenure, it has been proven time and time again that Type A
free agents do not list Long Island as a potential destination. The only way to get a proven top-six forward
or top-four defenseman in 2012-13 is through a trade. Snow has not done this at the draft, a draft
parodied by former GM Mike Milbury in past years with his fire sales at the
draft table. I have confidence Snow will
take higher percentage gambles, if he gambles at all. Snow has only pulled off a star-for-asset
deal once and while the Ryan Smyth trade did not bring Smyth to Long Island
long-term, it did not hurt the franchise as Ryan O'Marra, the key prospect that
went to Edmonton in that deadline deal, is an AHL journeyman.
Any star-for-asset
trades would include a player starving for a fresh start and someone who more
than a year to go on his deal. The
re-signing of Evgeni Nabokov is huge because it shows a veteran may like it on
the Island. The young talent is also a
selling point the Islanders did not have to woo Smyth. But, the higher percentage play is to get a
hungry late 20's, early 30's sniper in a deal with at least three years to go
on the contract. In three seasons, the
Coliseum deal will be up and the Islanders will move into a new building, be it
Brooklyn or somewhere else inside or outside the New York metro. They will be good then and ready to pop, so a
player would be more likely to re-sign.
The other four teams
pick in the final ten picks of the first round, unless a team moves up or
down. The biggest possibility of moving
up belongs to the New Jersey Devils, who have the #29 pick in the first round,
mainly because the Devils have to pay the NHL back with a draft pick in the
next couple of years as reparations for the obscene contract they gave to star
Ilya Kovalchuk. Ironically enough, that
same contract may make it tough to sign Zach Parise and keep him in the Garden
State. GM Lou Lamoriello decided against
giving this pick away, which is the second-lowest pick you can get in the top
round. So, the prevailing thinking is
either Lamoriello will package the pick for a player or move up.
Assuming the teams
stay where they are, here are my picks for the top 10 picks of the 1st round
and the local 1st round picks:
- Edmonton - RW Nail Yakupov - Sarnia
- Columbus - RW Filip Forsberg - Leksand
- Montreal - D Ryan Murray - Everett
- N.Y. Islanders - D Matthew Dumba - Red Deer
- Toronto - D Morgan Rielly - Moose Jaw
- Anaheim - F Mikhail Grigorenko - Quebec
- Minnesota - F Alex Galchenyuk - Sarnia
- Carolina - D Cody Ceci - Ottawa
- Winnipeg - D Griffin Reinhart - Edmonton
- Tampa Bay - F Radek Faksa - Kitchener
- Philadelphia - F Thomas Wilson - Plymouth
- Boston - D Dalton Thrower - Saskatoon
- N.Y. Rangers - F Stefan Matteau - U.S. NTDP
- New Jersey - G Malcolm Subban - Belleville