Week 10 NFL Picks

KNOCKOUT POOL/ESPN.com ELIMINATOR CHALLENGE

Early in the season, it was hard to believe that Seattle would be a lock, but they have been at home and they took care of business against Minnesota to help me to a nine-for-nine showing so far in the Knockout Pool.  At the moment, before Week 10’s Sunday games, there are 8,747 players still alive and 357 already through to Week 11 because they chose the Colts on Thursday night over Jacksonville.

This week’s pick: Pittsburgh defeating Kansas City

With the 357 players past Week 10 because of Thursday night, we will have to wait until Monday night to see if we can join them.  Pittsburgh is favored by 11 ½ points, but I think they will cover.  That is how confident I am in picking Pittsburgh to win on Monday night at home against Matt Cassel and an underachieving Chiefs club.  When the Chiefs upset the Saints, I was not sure if it said more about the Chiefs being better than we thought or more about the Saints and how much worse they have become since Bountygate.  In the weeks since, I think we have our answer.  The Saints were worse from the scandal than the Chiefs were better than predicted and I think Pittsburgh will win by more than two touchdowns for our tenth win in a row.

PAST PICKS

Week 1: Houston (W vs. MIA)

Week 2: N.Y. Giants (W vs. TBY)

Week 3: Chicago (W vs. STL)

Week 4: Baltimore (W vs. CLE)

Week 5: San Francisco (W vs. BUF)

Week 6: N.Y. Jets (W vs. IND)

Week 7: Minnesota (W vs. ARZ)

Week 8: Green Bay (W vs. JAX)

Week 9: Seattle (W vs. MIN)

GAME PICKS/ESPN.com PIGSKIN PICK ‘EM

Here are the game picks for this week.  We also have a “Sports With the StatMan” entry in the ESPN.com Pigskin Pick ‘Em for games against the spread.  We talk about the local games and the three of the other most important games, our “Big Games”, on our weekly This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Saturdays, but we pick every game, every week here on the blog.  Here they are:

LOCAL GAMES

Last Week: 1-1 straight up, 0-2 against the spread

Season: 20-11 straight up, 17-13-1 against the spread

Week 10 Picks:

Buffalo at New England – Straight Up: NE, Against the Spread: NE (-11.5)

N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati – Straight Up: NYG, Against the Spread: NYG (-4.5)

N.Y. Jets at Seattle – Straight Up: SEA, Against the Spread: NYJ (+6.5)

Dallas at Philadelphia – Straight Up: DAL, Against the Spread: DAL (+1.5)

BIG GAMES

Last Week: 3-0 straight up, 3-0 against the spread

Season: 24-4 straight up, 16-12 against the spread

Week 10 Picks:

Detroit at Minnesota – Straight Up: DET, Against the Spread: DET (-2.5)

Atlanta at New Orleans – Straight Up: ATL, Against the Spread: ATL (-2.5)

Houston at Chicago – Straight Up: HOU, Against the Spread: HOU (+1)

OTHER GAMES

Last Week: 8-1 straight up, 7-2 against the spread

Season: 44-29 straight up, 36-37 against the spread

Week 10 Picks:

Indianapolis at Jacksonville – Straight Up: IND, Against the Spread: IND (-3.5)

San Diego at Tampa Bay – Straight Up: TBY, Against the Spread: TBY (-3.5)

Tennessee at Miami – Straight Up: MIA, Against the Spread: TEN (+6.5)

Oakland at Baltimore – Straight Up: BAL, Against the Spread: BAL (-7.5)

Denver at Carolina – Straight Up: DEN, Against the Spread: DEN (-3.5)

St. Louis at San Francisco – Straight Up: SFO, Against the Spread: SFO (-11.5)

Kansas City at Pittsburgh – Straight Up: PIT, Against the Spread: PIT (-12.5)

START ‘EM/ANTI-START ‘EM/ESPN.com GRIDIRON CHALLENGE

We are participating in the ESPN Gridiron Challenge on ESPN.com.  The object is to pick the best team possible with a $50 million salary cap.  However, we are adding another wrinkle.  The object of the ESPN.com is to buy low and sell high and the more you accomplish that, the more money you get in your salary cap.  My goal is to put together a nine-man unit (2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) that is better than another nine-man unit at a similar price.

So far this season, my nine-man squad is 3-5-1 against a comparable squad:

Week 1: Head-to-Head – L, 107-124; By Position – 2-6-1

Week 2: Head-to-Head – L, 73-98; By Position – 3-6

Week 3: Head-to-Head – L, 103-139; By Position – 3-6

Week 4: Head-to-Head – L, 105-118; By Position – 4-5

Week 5: Head-to-Head – W, 110-56; By Position – 7-2

Week 6: Head-to-Head – L, 98-127; By Position – 2-6-1

Week 7: Head-to-Head – W, 119-80; By Position – 6-3

Week 8: Head-to-Head – T, 75-75; By Position – 3-5-1

Week 9: Head-to-Head – W, 138-105; By Position – 4-4-1

TOTALS: W-L: 3-5-1, PF: 928, PA: 912, By Position: 34-43-4

Here is the Week 10 entry in the Gridrion Challenge, our “Start ‘Em” team, along with our comparable “Anti-Start ‘Em” team, which is our opponent for the week:

(all dollar figures in millions)

Start ‘Em Team	POS	Anti-Start ‘Em Team
Matt Ryan ATL ($6.8)	QB	Michael Vick PHL ($6.7)
Philip Rivers SDG ($5.7)	QB	Christian Ponder MIN ($5.3)
Daniel Thomas MIA ($5.8)	RB	Matt Forte CHI ($7.2)
Chris Ivory NO ($4.7)	RB	Shonn Greene NYJ ($6.3)
Calvin Johnson DET ($7.0)	WR	Andre Johnson HOU ($6.3)
Julio Jones ATL ($6.4)	WR	Davone Bess MIA ($4.8)
Antonio Gates SDG ($5.2)	TE	Anthony Fasano MIA ($4.8)
Rob Bironas TEN ($3.7)	K	Nick Folk NYJ ($3.9)
Pittsburgh Steelers PIT ($4.7)	DEF	Carolina Panthers CAR ($4.7)
$50.0 million	TOTAL	$50.0 million

Catch me on "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesdays at 11pm ET and Saturdays at 11am ET. We'll break down these picks and look ahead to next week on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment, Saturday morning at 11am ET.