Week 13 NFL Picks

KNOCKOUT POOL/ESPN.com ELIMINATOR CHALLENGE

About 5,500 players have remained spotless on ESPN.com and we are one of them.  Indianapolis provided a win with more breathing room than we are used to, as the Colts beat the Bills by a touchdown, 20-13.  It was the second time we picked the Bills to lose in this competition and they did so Week 5 against San Francisco and in this one against Indianapolis.

This week’s pick: Denver defeating Tampa Bay

I almost went with Denver last week, but Denver is good at home, the team is hot, and arguably the best quarterback in NFL history is at the helm.  I am playing my Peyton Manning chip this week at home against an upstart Tampa Bay team that will provide a challenge, but at Week 13, there are not a lot of “easy” picks anymore.  I think Denver will win this one by a touchdown, but I would not be surprised in the least if the Broncos “only” survive at the final gun.

PAST PICKS

Week 1: Houston (W vs. MIA)

Week 2: N.Y. Giants (W vs. TBY)

Week 3: Chicago (W vs. STL)

Week 4: Baltimore (W vs. CLE)

Week 5: San Francisco (W vs. BUF)

Week 6: N.Y. Jets (W vs. IND)

Week 7: Minnesota (W vs. ARZ)

Week 8: Green Bay (W vs. JAX)

Week 9: Seattle (W vs. MIN)

Week 10: Pittsburgh (W vs. KCY)

Week 11: Dallas (W vs. CLE)

Week 12: Indianapolis (W vs. BUF)

GAME PICKS/ESPN.com PIGSKIN PICK ‘EM

Here are the game picks for this week.  We also have a “Sports With the StatMan” entry in the ESPN.com Pigskin Pick ‘Em for games against the spread.  We talk about the local games and the three of the other most important games, our “Big Games”, on our weekly This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Saturdays, but we pick every game, every week here on the blog.  Here they are:

LOCAL GAMES

Last Week: 3-0 straight up, 2-1 against the spread

Season: 28-13 straight up, 22-18-1 against the spread

Week 13 Picks:

New England at Miami (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: NE, Against the Spread: MIA (+7.5)

Arizona at N.Y. Jets (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: NYJ, Against the Spread: NYJ (-4.5)

Philadelphia at Dallas (Sunday night) – Straight Up: DAL, Against the Spread: DAL (-9.5)

N.Y. Giants at Washington (Monday night) – Straight Up: NYG, Against the Spread: NYG (-2.5)

BIG GAMES

Last Week: 3-0 straight up, 3-0 against the spread

Season: 30-7 straight up, 22-15 against the spread

Week 13 Picks:

Seattle at Chicago (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: CHI, Against the Spread: SEA (+4.5)

Minnesota at Green Bay (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: GBY, Against the Spread: MIN (+9.5)

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: BAL, Against the Spread: BAL (-6.5)

OTHER GAMES

Last Week: 5-6 straight up, 4-7 against the spread

Season: 62-36 straight up, 50-48 against the spread

Week 13 Picks:

New Orleans at Atlanta (Thursday night) – Straight Up: NO, Against the Spread: NO (+3.5)

Jacksonville at Buffalo (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: BUF, Against the Spread: JAX (+6.5)

Indianapolis at Detroit (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: DET, Against the Spread: IND (+4.5)

Houston at Tennessee (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: HOU, Against the Spread: HOU (-5.5)

Carolina at Kansas City (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: KCY, Against the Spread: KCY (+3.5)

San Francisco at St. Louis (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: SFO, Against the Spread: STL (+7.5)

Tampa Bay at Denver (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: DEN, Against the Spread: DEN (-6.5)

Cleveland at Oakland (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: OAK, Against the Spread: OAK (-0.5)

Cincinnati at San Diego (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: CIN, Against the Spread: CIN (-1.5)

START ‘EM/ANTI-START ‘EM/ESPN.com GRIDIRON CHALLENGE

We are participating in the ESPN Gridiron Challenge on ESPN.com.  The object is to pick the best team possible with a $50 million salary cap.  However, we are adding another wrinkle.  The object of the ESPN.com is to buy low and sell high and the more you accomplish that, the more money you get in your salary cap.  My goal is to put together a nine-man unit (2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) that is better than another nine-man unit at a similar price.

So far this season, my nine-man squad is 6-5-1 against a comparable squad with a 5-0-1 record in the last six weeks:

Week 1: Head-to-Head – L, 107-124; By Position – 2-6-1

Week 2: Head-to-Head – L, 73-98; By Position – 3-6

Week 3: Head-to-Head – L, 103-139; By Position – 3-6

Week 4: Head-to-Head – L, 105-118; By Position – 4-5

Week 5: Head-to-Head – W, 110-56; By Position – 7-2

Week 6: Head-to-Head – L, 98-127; By Position – 2-6-1

Week 7: Head-to-Head – W, 119-80; By Position – 6-3

Week 8: Head-to-Head – T, 75-75; By Position – 3-5-1

Week 9: Head-to-Head – W, 138-105; By Position – 4-4-1

Week 10: Head-to-Head – W, 145-43; By Position – 9-0

Week 11: Head-to-Head – W, 100-65; By Position – 5-4

Week 12: Head-to-Head – W, 98-95; By Position – 5-4

TOTALS: W-L: 6-5-1, PF: 1271, PA: 1115, By Position: 53-51-4

Here is the Week 13 entry in the Gridrion Challenge, our “Start ‘Em” team, along with our comparable “Anti-Start ‘Em” team, which is our opponent for the week:

(all dollar figures in millions)

Start ‘Em Team	POS	Anti-Start ‘Em Team
Peyton Manning DEN ($7.5)	QB	Carson Palmer OAK ($6.4)
Colin Kaepernick SFO ($5.2)	QB	Russell Wilson SEA ($6.0)
Chris Johnson TEN ($7.6)	RB	Marshawn Lynch SEA ($8.1)
Jacquizz Rodgers ATL ($5.4)	RB	Shane Vereen NE ($5.7)
Brandon LaFell CAR ($6.1)	WR	Torrey Smith BAL ($6.5)
T.Y. Hilton IND ($5.0)	WR	Antonio Brown PIT ($5.5)
Dallas Clark TBY ($4.8)	TE	Jermichael Finley GBY ($4.7)
Matt Prater DEN ($4.4)	K	Sebastian Janikowski OAK ($4.1)
New York Jets NYJ ($4.0)	DEF	Philadelphia Eagles PHL ($3.0)
$50.0 million	TOTAL	$50.0 million

Catch me on "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesdays at 11pm ET and Saturdays at 11am ET. We'll break down these picks and look ahead to next week on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment, Saturday morning at 11am ET.