Divisional Weekend NFL Picks

PLAYOFF POSITIONAL RANKINGS

As we try to do every year, here are our rankings for the players in action this week.  The best eight teams are left and we rank the featured players at each position.  For some teams, they may have a second running back or third wide receiver who is notable, so I may include them as well.  First, here is a recap of our positional rankings from Wild Card Weekend and the scoring for our game:

POSITIONAL RANKINGS – Scoring

Matching rank (predicted rank = actual rank) – 10 points (5 if score is tied with another player)

Placing rank –

All but WR: 0-6 points based on this formula: (21-(predicted rank))-(21-(# of ranked players)+(actual rank)) (0 points if this is a negative number)

Example: QB predicted to rank 1^st, but actually ranked 4^th: (21-1)-(21-8+4) = 3 points

WR: 0-7.5 points based on above formula and divided by 2 because of 2x the amount of players ranked

Example: WR predicted to rank 1^st, but actually ranked 4^th: ((21-1)-(21-16+4))/2 = 5.5 points

QUARTERBACK RESULTS – Wild Card

Player	StatMan Rank	Actual Rank	FPTS	Score	Others (FPTS)
Aaron Rodgers GBY	1	3	15	5
Andy Dalton CIN	2	7	4	0
Andrew Luck IND	3	4	11	2
Russell Wilson SEA	4	2	19	3
Robert Griffin III WSH	5	5	10	10
Matt Schaub HOU	6	6	8	10
Joe Flacco BAL	7	1	23	1
Christian Ponder MIN	8	DNP	0	0	Ponder DNP, Webb (20)
QB TOTAL				31

RUNNING BACK RESULTS – Wild Card

Player	StatMan Rank	Actual Rank	FPTS	Score	Others (FPTS)
Adrian Peterson MIN	1	4	9	5
Arian Foster HOU	2	1	21	7	Casey (2)
Marshawn Lynch SEA	3	2	20	5
Ray Rice BAL	4	T-6	8	0
Alfred Morris WSH	5	T-6	8	0
BenJarvis Green-Ellis CIN	6	8	6	0
Vick Ballard IND	7	5	9	0
Alex Green GBY	8	9	0	0	Kuhn (11), Grant (1)
DuJuan Harris GBY	9	3	13	0
RB TOTAL				17

WIDE RECEIVER RESULTS – Wild Card

Player	StatMan Rank	Actual Rank	FPTS	Score	Others (FPTS)
Jordy Nelson GBY	1	T-8	5	4.5
A.J. Green CIN	2	4	8	6
Andre Johnson HOU	3	T-5	6	5	K. Martin (1)
James Jones GBY	4	T-8	5	3
T.Y. Hilton IND	5	T-5	6	9
Pierre Garcon WSH	6	T-8	5	2
Andrew Hawkins CIN	7	T-15	1	0	M. Jones (3)
Kevin Walter HOU	8	T-13	2	0
Greg Jennings GBY	9	T-5	6	2
Torrey Smith BAL	10	T-11	3	0
Sidney Rice SEA	11	T-13	2	0
Santana Moss WSH	12	T-15	1	0
Reggie Wayne IND	13	3	11	1
Anquan Boldin BAL	14	1	20	1.5
Jarius Wright MIN	15	T-15	1	5	Simpson (2)
Golden Tate SEA	16	T-11	3	0
Michael Jenkins MIN	17	2	19	0
WR TOTAL				39

TIGHT END RESULTS – Wild Card

Player	StatMan Rank	Actual Rank	FPTS	Score	Others (FPTS)
Owen Daniels HOU	1	1	18	17	Graham (5)
Kyle Rudolph MIN	2	T-4	7	3
Dennis Pitta  BAL	3	2	10	4
Dwayne Allen IND	4	3	9	2
Jermaine Gresham CIN	5	T-6	2	0
Jermichael Finley GBY	6	T-6	2	5	Crabtree (2), Taylor (1)
Anthony McCoy SEA	7	8	0	0	Miller (10)
Logan Paulsen WSH	8	T-4	7	0
TE TOTAL				31

KICKER RESULTS – Wild Card

Player	StatMan Rank	Actual Rank	FPTS	Score	Others (FPTS)
Justin Tucker BAL	1	T-5	6	3
Blair Walsh MIN	2	7	5	0
Steven Hauschka SEA	3	3	11	13
Shayne Graham HOU	4	1	15	4
Kai Forbath WSH	5	8	2	0
Adam Vinatieri IND	6	2	14	1
Mason Crosby GBY	7	T-5	6	0
Josh Brown CIN	8	4	10	0
K TOTAL				21

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS RESULTS – Wild Card

Player	StatMan Rank	Actual Rank	FPTS	Score	Others (FPTS)
Seattle Seahawks SEA	1	T-4	9	4
Cincinnati Bengals CIN	2	3	10	4
Houston Texans HOU	3	T-4	9	2
Baltimore Ravens BAL	4	1	14	4
Green Bay Packers GBY	5	2	11	2
Washington Redskins WSH	6	6	6	10
Minnesota Vikings MIN	7	T-7	3	5
Indianapolis Colts IND	8	T-7	3	0
DEF TOTAL				31

TOTAL RESULTS (through Wild Card)

Position	Wild Card	Divisional	Conf. Champ.	Super Bowl	TOTAL
QUARTERBACK	31				31
RUNNING BACK	17				17
WIDE RECEIVER	39				39
TIGHT END	31				31
KICKER	21				21
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS	31				31
TOTAL	170				170

QUARTERBACK RANKINGS – Divisional Round

1. Tom Brady NE

2. Peyton Manning DEN

3. Aaron Rodgers GBY

4. Russell Wilson SEA

5. Matt Schaub HOU

6. Colin Kaepernick SFO

7. Joe Flacco BAL

8. Matt Ryan ATL

QB notes: Most of the elite fantasy quarterbacks are still in it.  Brees would be the only exception.  So, what separates the best?  Brady and Manning won their earlier games against their Divisional Round opponents and all three are facing defenses they can throw on.  There are not many they cannot throw on.  Seattle, and their twin cornerbacks, should keep Ryan at bay, while Denver’s defense should make it tough for Flacco.

RUNNING BACK RANKINGS – Divisional Round

1. Marshawn Lynch SEA

2. Arian Foster HOU

3. Frank Gore SFO

4. Knowshon Moreno DEN

5. Ray Rice BAL

6. DuJuan Harris GBY

7. Danny Woodhead NE

8. Michael Turner ATL

9. Stevan Ridley NE

RB notes: Harris went from an also-ran RB on this list to a solid sixth, behind the better running attacks still alive.  Woodhead is marked ahead of Ridley because of his receiving prowess, as Brady looks primed to put up big numbers.  Although, Baltimore backup runner Bernard Pierce rushed for 103 yards last week, he is a little banged up and did not make my list.

WIDE RECEIVER RANKINGS – Divisional Round

1. Eric Decker DEN

2. Demaryius Thomas DEN

3. Andre Johnson HOU

4. Brandon Lloyd NE

5. James Jones GBY

6. Julio Jones ATL

7. Michael Crabtree SFO

8. Roddy White ATL

9. Wes Welker NE

10. Greg Jennings GBY

11. Anquan Boldin BAL

12. Jordy Nelson GBY

13. Golden Tate SEA

14. Randy Moss SFO

15. Torrey Smith BAL

16. Kevin Walter HOU

17. Sidney Rice SEA

WR notes: Denver has some weapons, or rather, Manning has turned good receivers into great receivers.  Decker is the slot guy and Thomas is the deep guy, but Manning can find them.  Johnson can get behind the Patriots defensive secondary, while Lloyd is New England’s secret weapon on offense.  Crabtree is getting more reliable and Nelson fell from #1 last week to #12 this week.  Baltimore and Seattle receivers make up four of my bottom seven.

TIGHT ENDS RANKINGS – Divisional Round

1. Rob Gronkowski NE

2. Tony Gonzalez ATL

3. Owen Daniels HOU

4. Aaron Hernandez NE

5. Delanie Walker SFO

6. Dennis Pitta BAL

7. Jacob Tamme DEN

8. Zach Miller SEA

9. Vernon Davis SFO

10. Jermichael Finley GBY

TE notes: Daniels was the best of the Wild Card tight ends, but Gronkowski, Gonzalez, and Hernandez all had bye weeks. They are back and make up three of the top four. The 49ers join the Patriots with two tight ends on this list, as Walker has a hotter hand than Davis. Miller replaces McCoy as the Seahawks’ representative.

KICKER RANKINGS – Divisional Round

1. Matt Prater DEN

2. Stephen Gostkowski NE

3. Justin Tucker BAL

4. Shayne Graham HOU

5. Matt Bryant ATL

6. Ryan Longwell SEA

7. David Akers SFO

8. Mason Crosby GBY

K notes: Two of my top three kickers this week are playing in the rarified air of Denver with Prater and Tucker. Bryant enjoys some dome kicking at home in Atlanta.  Longwell takes over for Steven Hauschka, who is hurt.  Akers and Crosby are two formerly reliable kickers who are scuffling.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS RANKINGS – Divisional Round

1. Seattle Seahawks SEA

2. New England Patriots NE

3. Denver Broncos DEN

4. Houston Texans HOU

5. Baltimore Ravens BAL

6. Green Bay Packers GBY

7. San Francisco 49ers SFO

8. Atlanta Falcons ATL

DST notes: Seattle let up two early touchdowns to Washington and clamped it down after that, not allowing a single point after falling behind 14-0 last week.  I think the Patriots will be opportunistic on Schaub and the Texans.  The Falcons defense are a bad matchup against Seattle and their solid running game.

DIVISIONAL GAME PICKS

Playoff Pick Results:

Last Week: 4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread

Baltimore at Denver (-9.5) – Straight Up: Denver, Against the Spread: Denver

Peyton Manning has had great success against Baltimore and has already defeated them not too long ago, in Week 15, 34-17.  Most of Manning’s heroics have come while with Indianapolis, but Manning has a knack over the last few years of playing well in the postseason.  In that first game, Manning was average, throwing for only 204 yards and one touchdown, but Knowshon Moreno racked up 115 yards and a touchdown.  The defense also shined, returning a Joe Flacco pass in the red zone the other way for six points.  Manning should be better this time around, despite the positive vibes on the Ravens’ sideline, and I am picking Denver to win by a couple of touchdowns.

Predicted Score: DEN 31, BAL 17

Green Bay at San Francisco (-3) – Straight Up: Green Bay, Against the Spread: Green Bay

This Packers team is reminding me of their Super Bowl-winning club just a couple of years ago.  They have a healthy Aaron Rodgers, who is a maestro in his offense, and has plenty of options at his disposal.  The defense is getting healthier, with Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews back in action in recent weeks.  Woodson was dynamite two years ago and Tramon Williams burst onto the scene.  Two years ago, a running game blossomed out of nowhere.  It was James Starks then, but it is DuJuan Harris now.  I think Green Bay pulls off the upset win in Colin Kaepernick’s first playoff game.

Predicted Score: GBY 34, SFO 30

Seattle at Atlanta (-2.5) – Straight Up: Seattle, Against the Spread: Seattle

Atlanta hears the demons of failed playoffs past and they will be successful eventually.  It is just that this is a tough matchup for the Falcons.  The Falcons can be had on the ground and that is the Seattle’s specialty.  Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch are two top-notch runners.  Seattle also matches up well on the defensive side against Atlanta.  They have two corners that have played well all year in Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner.  Bobby Wagner has had a solid rookie campaign and he’ll be trying to plug the middle, where Michael Turner will be running and Tony Gonzalez will be catching.  Seattle’s defense is solid and I think the Seahawks win a high-scoring game on its defense and run game.

Predicted Score: SEA 30, ATL 28

Houston at New England (-9.5) – Straight Up: New England, Against the Spread: New England

The Patriots have been unparalleled during the regular season for years and years.  However, lately, they have had their playoff foibles.  Before last season’s AFC Championship, New England was one-and-done the past two years.  Much like both Saturday games, this is a rematch, but unlike the other two, the venue will be the same as the first game, where on Monday night in Week 14, the Patriots asserted themselves in a 42-14 trouncing of the Texans.  Brady threw for 296 yards and four touchdowns and the Patriots built a 28-0 lead, including a 21-0 first half.  Arian Foster rushed for only 46 yards, which was his fourth-lowest rushing total all season.  While I think the score will be closer, New England will get their points and I do not think Houston will get close enough to cover.

Predicted Score: NE 42, HOU 28

NFL.com PLAYOFF CHALLENGE

We are participating in the NFL.com Playoff Challenge, using our weekly rankings to pick our teams.  This is a different game than the ESPN.com Gridiron Challenge in that you do not have to adhere to a salary cap.  You are picking the top players at each position (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) and see how they score in that week’s playoff games.  If the players you picked last week are still alive, their points are worth twice as much, so if other options are only marginally better, it makes sense to keep them in your lineup.

Playoff Challenge Results:

Lineup	Wild Card	Divisional	Conf. Champ.	Super Bowl	TOTAL
QB	A. Rodgers GBY – 15	A. Rodgers GBY (at SFO) (2x)			15
RB1	A. Peterson MIN – 9	M. Lynch SEA (at ATL)			9
RB2	A. Foster HOU – 23	A. Foster HOU (at NE) (2x)			23
WR1	J. Nelson GBY – 5	A. Johnson HOU (at NE)			5
WR2	A. Green CIN – 8	E. Decker DEN (vs BAL)			8
TE	O. Daniels HOU – 9	R. Gronkowski (vs HOU)			9
K	J. Tucker BAL – 6	J. Tucker BAL (at DEN) (2x)			6
DEF	Seahawks SEA – 12	Seahawks SEA (at ATL) (2x)			12
TOTAL	87 pts				87

Catch me on "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesdays at 11pm ET and Saturdays at 11am ET. We'll break down these picks and look ahead to next week on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment, Saturday morning at 11am ET.