NFL 2013: Week 10 Picks

While our showing in the Knockout Pool and Gridiron Challenge improves, our weekly picks are suffering.  Last week, we set a season-low with a 5-8 record straight up and 2-11 record against the spread.  We are now below .400 against the spread for the season (.398), including an awful 8-23 record in local games.  On the good side, we have won six Knockout Pool picks in a row since our early season troubles.  Also, we poured in a season-high 181 points as our Start ‘Em team moved to 5-4 on the season against the Anti-Start ‘Em team.

JOIN US!

It is never too late to join and see how you measure up against me and other listeners who participate.  You can enter your picks and join the groups I created for the show.  The winner will be touted on the Saturday show and, if you top the charts, you could even call in to give me your picks!  Here is how:

Game	Goal	Where to Play	Group to Join
Eliminator Challenge	Pick 1 winner per week, no repeat picks (a.k.a. Knockout Pool)	ESPN.com	Sports With The StatMan
Pigskin Pick’Em (Straight Up)	Pick a winner for each game, every week	ESPN.com	Sports w/the StatMan-Str
Pigskin Pick’Em (Against the Spread)	Pick a winner against the point spread for each game, every week	ESPN.com	Sports w/the StatMan-ATS
NFL Gridiron Challenge	Pick a team of players with a $50 million salary cap	ESPN.com	Sports With The StatMan

KNOCKOUT POOL/ESPN.com ELIMINATOR CHALLENGE

Seattle survived against a winless Tampa Bay team at home.  Coming into the game, the spread was the largest of Week 9, with the Seahawks pinned to a 16.5-point advantage.  But, the game went to overtime and Seattle prevailed, 27-24.

This week’s pick: Tennessee defeating Jacksonville

Back to our bread and butter, we are picking against Jacksonville.  This time, it is more of a pick out of necessity than anything else.  The other games on the schedule feature matchups where I have already picked the home team in a previous week or have a road team which is far from a sure thing.  This game is by far the best pick.

PAST PICKS

Week 1: Tampa Bay (L at NYJ)

Week 2: Cincinnati (W vs. PIT)

Week 3: Minnesota (L vs. CLE)

Week 4: Indianapolis (W at JAX)

Week 5: St. Louis (W vs. JAX)

Week 6: Denver (W vs. JAX)

Week 7: Green Bay (W vs. CLE)

Week 8: New Orleans (W vs. BUF)

Week 9: Seattle (W vs. TBY)

GAME PICKS/ESPN.com PIGSKIN PICK ‘EM

Here are the game picks for this week.  We talk about the local games and the three of the other most important games, our “Big Games”, on our weekly This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Saturdays, but we pick every game, every week here on the blog.  New this year is the listing of our Preseason picks we made for our NFL Preview series on the show.  This will give you an idea on what I thought of each team before the season and what I am thinking of each team during the season.

ALL GAMES

RESULTS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason SU
SEASON	78-55 (.586)	53-80 (.398)	76-57 (.571)
LAST WEEK (Week 9)	5-8	2-11	5-8

LOCAL GAMES

RESULTS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason SU
SEASON	14-17	8-23	15-16
LAST WEEK (Week 9)	1-2	0-3	2-1
WEEK 9 LOCAL GAME PICKS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason SU
Philadelphia at Green Bay (Sunday 1pm)	PHL	PHL (+0.5)	GBY
Oakland at N.Y. Giants (Sunday 1pm)	NYG	OAK (+7.5)	NYG

BIG GAMES

RESULTS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason SU
SEASON	13-14	12-15	12-15
LAST WEEK (Week 9)	1-2	1-2	0-3
WEEK 9 BIG GAME PICKS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason SU
Detroit at Chicago (Sunday 1pm)	DET	DET (+2.5)	DET
Carolina at San Francisco (Sunday 4pm)	SFO	CAR (+6.5)	SFO
Dallas at New Orleans (Sunday night)	NO	NO (-6.5)	NO

OTHER GAMES

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason SU
SEASON	51-24	33-42	49-26
LAST WEEK (Week 9)	3-4	1-6	3-4
WEEK 9 OTHER GAME PICKS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason SU
Washington at Minnesota (Thursday night)	WSH	WSH (-2.5)	MIN
Seattle at Atlanta (Sunday 1pm)	SEA	SEA (-6.5)	SEA
Buffalo at Pittsburgh (Sunday 1pm)	BUF	BUF (3.5)	PIT
Cincinnati at Baltimore (Sunday 1pm)	CIN	CIN (-1.5)	BAL
Jacksonville at Tennessee (Sunday 1pm)	TEN	TEN (-13.5)	TEN
St. Louis at Indianapolis (Sunday 1pm)	IND	IND (-10.5)	IND
Denver at San Diego (Sunday 4pm)	DEN	DEN (-7.5)	DEN
Houston at Arizona (Sunday 4pm)	ARZ	ARZ (-2.5)	HOU
Miami at Tampa Bay (Monday night)	TBY	TBY (2.5)	MIA

START ‘EM/ANTI-START ‘EM/ESPN.com GRIDIRON CHALLENGE

We are participating in the ESPN Gridiron Challenge on ESPN.com again this season.  The object is to pick the best team possible with a $50 million salary cap.  The salary cap moves up if the value of your players increases.  However, we have added another wrinkle.  The object of the ESPN.com is to buy low and sell high and the more you accomplish that, the more money you get in your salary cap.  My goal is to put together a nine-man unit (2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) that is better than another nine-man unit at a similar price.

We extended our streak to three wins in a row last week, but in a Week 9 that saw a ton of points scored, we got our share.  The Start ‘Em Team defeated the Anti-Start ‘Em Team, 181-165, behind Case Keenum’s 40 points.  A lot of those points were shared with Andre Johnson, who was on the Anti-Start ‘Em Team and led all scorers with 58 points, but it was a valuable hedge.  The Start ‘Em Team came out ahead in five of nine lineup slots and two slots were tied.

WEEK 1: Head-to-Head – L, 100-137; By Position: 2-7

WEEK 2: Head-to-Head – L, 86-116; By Position: 3-5-1
WEEK 3: Head-to-Head – W, 114-95; By Position: 6-3

WEEK 4: Head-to-Head – W, 118-48; By Position: 7-2

WEEK 5: Head-to-Head – L, 116-128; By Position: 6-2-1

WEEK 6: Head-to-Head – L, 81-102; By Position: 4-5

WEEK 7: Head-to-Head – W, 125-94; By Position: 5-3-1

WEEK 8: Head-to-Head – W, 117-86; By Position: 5-4

WEEK 9: Head-to-Head – W, 181-165; By Position: 5-2-2

SEASON: 5-4 W-L (.556), 1038 PF, 971 PA (51.7% of points), 43-33-5 by position (.562)

Here is the Week 10 entry in the Gridrion Challenge, our “Start ‘Em” team, along with our comparable “Anti-Start ‘Em” team, which is our “opponent” for the week.

 (all dollar figures in millions)

Start ‘Em Team	POS	Anti-Start ‘Em Team
Russell Wilson SEA ($6.4)	QB	Matt Ryan ATL ($6.4)
Carson Palmer ARZ ($5.4)	QB	Case Keenum HOU ($5.8)
Eddie Lacy GBY ($6.4)	RB	Ray Rice BAL ($6)
Pierre Thomas NO ($5)	RB	Joseph Randle DAL ($5.8)
Demaryius Thomas DEN ($6.9)	WR	Dez Bryant DAL ($7)
Jordy Nelson GBY ($6.8)	WR	Torrey Smith BAL ($6)
Vernon Davis SFO ($6.4)	TE	Greg Olsen CAR ($5.5)
Mason Crosby GBY ($5.2)	K	Garrett Hartley NO ($4.7)
Houston Texans HOU ($4.1)	DEF	Dallas Cowboys DAL ($5.4)
$52.6 million	TOTAL	$52.6 million

Catch me on "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesdays at 11pm ET and Saturdays at 11am ET. We'll break down these picks and look ahead to next week on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment, Saturday morning at 11am ET.