NFL 2013: Week 5 Picks

In Week 4, we had a breakthrough in our Start ‘Em team, but the rest of the results were a bit disappointing.  The disappointment has mounted throughout the first quarter of the season, as we are now 2-13 against the spread in picking the locals and 6-9 straight up in those games.

JOIN US!

It is never too late to join and see how you measure up against me and other listeners who participate.  You can enter your picks and join the groups I created for the show.  The winner will be touted on the Saturday show and, if you top the charts, you could even call in to give me your picks!  Here is how:

Game	Goal	Where to Play	Group to Join
Eliminator Challenge	Pick 1 winner per week, no repeat picks (a.k.a. Knockout Pool)	ESPN.com	Sports With The StatMan
Pigskin Pick’Em (Straight Up)	Pick a winner for each game, every week	ESPN.com	Sports w/the StatMan-Str
Pigskin Pick’Em (Against the Spread)	Pick a winner against the point spread for each game, every week	ESPN.com	Sports w/the StatMan-ATS
NFL Gridiron Challenge	Pick a team of players with a $50 million salary cap	ESPN.com	Sports With The StatMan

KNOCKOUT POOL/ESPN.com ELIMINATOR CHALLENGE

We survived in Week 4 by picking a road team.  You could also call it the “Jacksonville strategy”, which is simply to pick the Jags’ opponent.  Indianapolis slaughtered Jacksonville, 37-3.

This week’s pick: St. Louis defeating Jacksonville

The “Jacksonville strategy” will continue this week, as they travel to St. Louis in the most lopsided spread of the week.  The Rams are a better team at home and they have quickly shed their bandwagon pundits around the league.  Remember: this team is still coached by Jeff Fisher and this team also played San Francisco really tough last season.

PAST PICKS

Week 1: Tampa Bay (L at NYJ)

Week 2: Cincinnati (W vs PIT)

Week 3: Minnesota (L vs CLE)

Week 4: Indianapolis (W at JAX)

GAME PICKS/ESPN.com PIGSKIN PICK ‘EM

Here are the game picks for this week.  We talk about the local games and the three of the other most important games, our “Big Games”, on our weekly This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Saturdays, but we pick every game, every week here on the blog.  New this year is the listing of our preseason pick we made for our NFL Preview series on the show.  This will give you an idea on what I thought of each team before the season and what I am thinking of each team during the season.

LOCAL GAMES

RESULTS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason Pick
SEASON	6-9	2-13	7-8
LAST WEEK (Week 4)	2-2	1-3	2-2
WEEK 5 LOCAL GAME PICKS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason Pick
New England at Cincinnati (Sunday 1pm)	NE	NE (+1.5)	NE
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants (Sunday 1pm)	PHL	PHL (+2.5)	NYG
N.Y. Jets at Atlanta (Monday night)	ATL	ATL (-9.5)	ATL

BIG GAMES

RESULTS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason Pick
SEASON	5-7	6-6	5-7
LAST WEEK (Week 4)	2-1	2-1	1-2
WEEK 5 BIG GAME PICKS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason Pick
New Orleans at Chicago (Sunday 1pm)	NO	NO (+0.5)	NO
Detroit at Green Bay (Sunday 1pm)	GBY	GBY (-6.5)	GBY
Seattle at Indianapolis (Sunday 1pm)	IND	IND (+2.5)	SEA

OTHER GAMES

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason Pick
SEASON	25-12	21-16	26-11
LAST WEEK (Week 4)	4-4	4-4	4-4
WEEK 5 OTHER GAME PICKS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason Pick
Buffalo at Cleveland (Thursday night)	BUF	BUF (+3.5)	BUF
Kansas City at Tennessee (Sunday 1pm)	KCY	KCY (-2.5)	TEN
Jacksonville at St. Louis (Sunday 1pm)	STL	STL (-11.5)	STL
Baltimore at Miami (Sunday 1pm)	BAL	BAL (+2.5)	BAL
Carolina at Arizona (Sunday 4pm)	CAR	CAR (-2.5)	ARZ
Denver at Dallas (Sunday 4pm)	DEN	DEN (-7.5)	DAL
Houston at San Francisco (Sunday 8:30pm)	SFO	SFO (-6.5)	SFO
San Diego at Oakland (Sunday 11:30pm)	SDG	SDG (-4.5)	SDG

START ‘EM/ANTI-START ‘EM/ESPN.com GRIDIRON CHALLENGE

We are participating in the ESPN Gridiron Challenge on ESPN.com again this season.  The object is to pick the best team possible with a $50 million salary cap.  The salary cap moves up if the value of your players increases.  However, we have added another wrinkle.  The object of the ESPN.com is to buy low and sell high and the more you accomplish that, the more money you get in your salary cap.  My goal is to put together a nine-man unit (2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) that is better than another nine-man unit at a similar price.

After getting our first win in Week 3, we had our first laugher of the season in Week 4.  We outscored the comparable Anti-Start Team, 118-48, and outscored the competition in seven of nine categories.  It makes the full-season numbers look good in differential and in positional play.

WEEK 1: Head-to-Head – L, 100-137; By Position: 2-7

WEEK 2: Head-to-Head – L, 86-116; By Position: 3-5-1
WEEK 3: Head-to-Head – W, 114-95; By Position: 6-3

WEEK 4: Head-to-Head – W, 118-48; By Position: 7-2

SEASON: 2-2 W-L, 418 PF, 396 PA, 18-17-1 by position

Here is the Week 5 entry in the Gridrion Challenge, our “Start ‘Em” team, along with our comparable “Anti-Start ‘Em” team, which is our “opponent” for the week.

 (all dollar figures in millions)

Start ‘Em Team	POS	Anti-Start ‘Em Team
Tom Brady NE ($6.2)	QB	Tony Romo DAL ($6.1)
Eli Manning NYG ($5.8)	QB	Sam Bradford STL ($5.7)
Matt Forte CHI ($6.6)	RB	Arian Foster HOU ($6.5)
Reggie Bush DET ($6.0)	RB	Trent Richardson IND ($6.1)
A.J. Green CIN ($6.3)	WR	Demaryius Thomas DEN ($6.4)
DeSean Jackson PHL ($5.6)	WR	Jordy Nelson GBY ($5.9)
Julius Thomas DEN ($5.5)	TE	Tony Gonzalez ATL ($5.7)
Nick Novak SDG ($4.4)	K	Matt Bryant ATL ($4.8)
Kansas City Chiefs KCY ($5.6)	DEF	Dallas Cowboys DAL ($5.2)
$52.0 million	TOTAL	$52.4 million

Catch me on "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesdays at 11pm ET and Saturdays at 11am ET. We'll break down these picks and look ahead to next week on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment, Saturday morning at 11am ET.