NFL 2013: Week 7 Picks

The goal of picking against the spread is 50%, or .500.  We took a major step back in our quest for .500, as we picked correctly in only three of 15 games.  Otherwise, a 9-6 record straight up and a Knockout win was tempered with a Start ‘Em Team loss.

JOIN US!

It is never too late to join and see how you measure up against me and other listeners who participate.  You can enter your picks and join the groups I created for the show.  The winner will be touted on the Saturday show and, if you top the charts, you could even call in to give me your picks!  Here is how:

Game	Goal	Where to Play	Group to Join
Eliminator Challenge	Pick 1 winner per week, no repeat picks (a.k.a. Knockout Pool)	ESPN.com	Sports With The StatMan
Pigskin Pick’Em (Straight Up)	Pick a winner for each game, every week	ESPN.com	Sports w/the StatMan-Str
Pigskin Pick’Em (Against the Spread)	Pick a winner against the point spread for each game, every week	ESPN.com	Sports w/the StatMan-ATS
NFL Gridiron Challenge	Pick a team of players with a $50 million salary cap	ESPN.com	Sports With The StatMan

KNOCKOUT POOL/ESPN.com ELIMINATOR CHALLENGE

Our third week of the “Jacksonville strategy” paid off again with Denver easily beating the Jaguars.  Denver did not cover the biggest spread in recent memory (27.5 points), but the outcome was never in doubt as the Broncos won by 16 points.

This week’s pick: Green Bay defeating Cleveland

We are jumping off the anti-Jacksonville bandwagon, as we try to avenge an earlier loss.  The Jets and Browns have provided the opposition that has beaten our Knockout picks this season.  In a tough week for an “easy” Knockout pick, I will go with the top spread on the board.  Green Bay is favored by 10.5 points at home against Cleveland.  Packer receivers are banged up, but I think Aaron Rodgers will get it done.

PAST PICKS

Week 1: Tampa Bay (L at NYJ)

Week 2: Cincinnati (W vs PIT)

Week 3: Minnesota (L vs CLE)

Week 4: Indianapolis (W at JAX)

Week 5: St. Louis (W vs. JAX)

Week 6: Denver (W vs. JAX)

GAME PICKS/ESPN.com PIGSKIN PICK ‘EM

Here are the game picks for this week.  We talk about the local games and the three of the other most important games, our “Big Games”, on our weekly This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Saturdays, but we pick every game, every week here on the blog.  New this year is the listing of our preseason pick we made for our NFL Preview series on the show.  This will give you an idea on what I thought of each team before the season and what I am thinking of each team during the season.

ALL GAMES

RESULTS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason Pick
SEASON	53-39 (.576)	39-53 (.424)	55-37 (.598)
LAST WEEK (Week 6)	9-6	3-12	12-3

LOCAL GAMES

RESULTS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason Pick
SEASON	9-13	5-17	10-12
LAST WEEK (Week 6)	2-2	2-2	3-1
WEEK 6 LOCAL GAME PICKS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason Pick
New England at N.Y. Jets (Sunday 1pm)	NE	NE (-4.5)	NE
Dallas at Philadelphia (Sunday 1pm)	DAL	DAL (+2.5)	PHL
Minnesota at N.Y. Giants (Monday night)	NYG	NYG (-3.5)	NYG

BIG GAMES

RESULTS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason Pick
SEASON	9-9	9-9	10-8
LAST WEEK (Week 6)	1-2	0-3	3-0
WEEK 6 BIG GAME PICKS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason Pick
Cincinnati at Detroit (Sunday 1pm)	DET	DET (-2.5)	DET
San Francisco at Tennessee (Sunday 4pm)	SFO	SFO (-4.5)	SFO
Denver at Indianapolis (Sunday night)	DEN	DEN (-6.5)	DEN

OTHER GAMES

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason Pick
SEASON	37-17	26-28	37-17
LAST WEEK (Week 6)	7-2	1-8	7-2
WEEK 6 OTHER GAME PICKS	Straight Up	Against the Spread	Preseason Pick
Seattle at Arizona (Thursday night)	SEA	ARZ (+6.5)	SEA
Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Sunday 1pm)	ATL	TBY (+7.5)	ATL
Buffalo at Miami (Sunday 1pm)	MIA	BUF (+8.5)	MIA
Chicago at Washington (Sunday 1pm)	CHI	CHI (+1.5)	CHI
St. Louis at Carolina (Sunday 1pm)	CAR	CAR (-6.5)	CAR
San Diego at Jacksonville (Sunday 1pm)	SDG	JAX (+7.5)	SDG
Cleveland at Green Bay (Sunday 4pm)	GBY	GBY (-10.5)	GBY
Houston at Kansas City (Sunday 4pm)	KCY	KCY (-6.5)	HOU
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (Sunday 4pm)	PIT	PIT (-1.5)	PIT

START ‘EM/ANTI-START ‘EM/ESPN.com GRIDIRON CHALLENGE

We are participating in the ESPN Gridiron Challenge on ESPN.com again this season.  The object is to pick the best team possible with a $50 million salary cap.  The salary cap moves up if the value of your players increases.  However, we have added another wrinkle.  The object of the ESPN.com is to buy low and sell high and the more you accomplish that, the more money you get in your salary cap.  My goal is to put together a nine-man unit (2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) that is better than another nine-man unit at a similar price.

If you look at the positional matchups, we were not far off.  But, Matthew Stafford was the top scorer for either side (29 points) and easily outplayed the quarterback for the Start ‘Em Team, Russell Wilson (16).  Anti Start-Em’s Larry Fitzgerald (20) clobbered Randall Cobb (5), who was injured in his game, at the WR2 position.  That provided more than the margin of victory for the Anti-Start ‘Em Team.

WEEK 1: Head-to-Head – L, 100-137; By Position: 2-7

WEEK 2: Head-to-Head – L, 86-116; By Position: 3-5-1
WEEK 3: Head-to-Head – W, 114-95; By Position: 6-3

WEEK 4: Head-to-Head – W, 118-48; By Position: 7-2

WEEK 5: Head-to-Head – L, 116-128; By Position: 6-2-1

WEEK 6: Head-to-Head – L, 81-102; By Position: 4-5

SEASON: 3-3 W-L (.500), 615 PF, 626 PA (.496), 28-23-2 by position (.547)

Here is the Week 7 entry in the Gridrion Challenge, our “Start ‘Em” team, along with our comparable “Anti-Start ‘Em” team, which is our “opponent” for the week.

 (all dollar figures in millions)

Start ‘Em Team	POS	Anti-Start ‘Em Team
Tony Romo DAL ($6.2)	QB	Robert Griffin III WSH ($6.3)
Andy Dalton CIN ($5.6)	QB	Ben Roethlisberger PIT ($5.8)
Doug Martin TBY ($6.5)	RB	Trent Richardson IND ($6.1)
Eddie Lacy GBY ($5.6)	RB	Chris Johnson TEN ($5.9)
A.J. Green CIN ($6.5)	WR	Brandon Marshall CHI ($6.6)
Victor Cruz NYG ($5.9)	WR	Pierre Garcon WSH ($5.9)
Jason Witten DAL ($5.8)	TE	Charles Clay MIA ($5.3)
Nick Novak SDG ($4.5)	K	Mason Crosby GBY ($5.0)
Seattle Seahawks SEA ($5.6)	DEF	Denver Broncos DEN ($5.3)
$52.2 million	TOTAL	$52.2 million

Catch me on "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesdays at 11pm ET and Saturdays at 11am ET. We'll break down these picks and look ahead to next week on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment, Saturday morning at 11am ET.