Friday, December 24, 2010

Week 16 NFL Picks and Predictions

Merry Christmas everybody! Here are the picks and predictions for Week 16 in the NFL:

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 15 results in parentheses)
  • Picks - Straight Up: 141-83 (.631) (9-7 in Week 15)
  • Picks - Against The Spread: 109-107-8 (.504) (10-6 in Week 15)
  • Knockout Pool - Out in Round 5 after Week 15 (10-5, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND, NO, PIT, ATL, JAX; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE, TBY)
  • Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 26-16-3 (.611) (2-1 in Week 15: QB (W, 11-4): K. Collins TEN 15, R. Fitzpatrick BUF 19; RB (W, 8-5-2): D. McFadden OAK 13, L. McCoy PHL 7; WR (W, 7-7-1): S. Moss WSH 17, M. Sims-Walker JAX 12)

WEEK 16 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
  • Locals: NYG (W at GBY), NYJ (L at CHI), PHL (W vs. MIN), NE (W at BUF)
  • Big Game Winners: NO (at ATL), SFO (at STL), IND (at OAK)
  • Other Winners: PIT (vs. CAR), DAL (at ARZ), DET (at MIA), BAL (at CLE), JAX (vs. WSH), KCY (vs. TEN), TBY (vs. SEA), DEN (vs. HOU), SDG (at CIN)
Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
  • Locals: NYG (+3 at GBY), CHI (-1 vs. NYJ), PHL (-14 vs. MIN), NE (-8 at BUF)
  • Big Game Covers: NO (+2 at ATL), SFO (+2 at STL), IND (-2.5 at OAK)
  • Other Covers: PIT (-14 vs. CAR), ARZ (+6.5 vs. DAL), DET (+3 at MIA), BAL (-3 at CLE), WSH (+7 at JAX), KCY (-4.5 vs. TEN), SEA (+6 at TBY), DEN (+3 vs. HOU), SDG (-7.5 at CIN)
Knockout Pool
  • Round 6: Dallas (at Arizona)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
  • QB: Start Tim Tebow DEN (vs. HOU), Sit Eli Manning NYG (at GBY)
  • RB: Start BenJarvis Green-Ellis NE (at BUF), Sit Matt Forte CHI (vs. NYJ)
  • WR: Start Mike Williams TBY (vs. SEA), Sit Chad Ochocinco CIN (vs. SDG)

***

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#92) for our last show of 2010 on Thursday night, December 30th, at 9pm ET. We will give out our 1st Annual StatMan Awards, recognizing the top performances, teams, and moves for the local teams in the New York, Boston, and Philadelphia areas, as well as the best of the year in fantasy sports and more. We will also recap Week 16 in the NFL and the round-robin of NHL games between the Rangers, Devils, and Islanders.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
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Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
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Sunday, December 19, 2010

Week 15 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 14 results in parentheses)
  • Picks - Straight Up: 132-76 (.635) (12-4 in Week 14)
  • Picks - Against The Spread: 99-101-8 (.495) (5-10-1 in Week 14)
  • Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 5 after Week 14 (10-4, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND, NO, PIT, ATL, JAX; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE, TBY)
  • Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 24-15-3 (.607) (2-1 in Week 14: QB (W, 11-3): A. Smith SFO 37, D. Stanton DET 10; RB (W, 7-5-2): K. Moreno DEN 15, T. Choice DAL 2; WR (L, 6-7-1): A. Boldin BAL 4, C. Johnson DET 5)
WEEK 15 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
  • Locals: NYG (L vs. PHL), NYJ (L at PIT), PHL (W at NYG), NE (W vs. GBY)
  • Big Game Winners: BAL (vs. NO), IND (vs. JAX), STL (vs. KCY)
  • Other Winners: SDG (vs. SFO), MIA (vs. BUF), DAL (vs. WSH), HOU (at TEN), CLE (at CIN), ARZ (at CAR), TBY (vs. DET), ATL (at SEA), OAK (vs. DEN), CHI (at MIN)
Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
  • Locals: PHL (+3 at NYG), NYJ (+5.5 at PIT), NE (-9 vs. GBY)
  • Big Game Covers: BAL (-1.5 vs. NO), IND (-5 vs. JAX), STL (+1 vs. KCY)
  • Other Covers: SDG (-9.5 vs. SFO), BUF (+6 at MIA), DAL (-6.5 vs. WSH), HOU (+1 at TEN), CLE (+1 at CIN), ARZ (+2.5 at CAR), DET (+5.5 at TBY), ATL (-6.5 at SEA), OAK (-6.5 vs. DEN), CHI (+1.5 at MIN)
Knockout Pool
  • Round 5: Tampa Bay (vs. Detroit)
PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
  • QB: Start Kerry Collins TEN (vs. HOU), Sit Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF (at MIA)
  • RB: Start Darren McFadden (vs. DEN), Sit LeSean McCoy PHL (at NYG)
  • WR: Start Santana Moss (at DAL), Sit Mike Sims-Walker JAX (at IND)
***

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#91) on Tuesday night, December 21st, at 9pm ET. We will recap the Eagles-Giants slugfest, as Michael Vick and the Eagles will try to win their sixth straight against Eli Manning and the Giants. The Jets are in the middle of the roughest stretch of Mark Sanchez's tenure as quarterback, with a tough schedule and unending scrutiny. Is he able to right the ship? In hockey, Christmas Week will bring about a round-robin for the three New York metro area teams. We'll also take a look at the latest news and rumors in baseball.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
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Sunday, December 12, 2010

Week 14 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 13 results in parentheses)
  • Picks - Straight Up: 120-72 (.625) (11-5 in Week 13)
  • Picks - Against The Spread: 94-91-7 (.508) (8-8 in Week 13)
  • Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 5 after Week 13 (9-4, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND, NO, PIT, ATL; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE)
  • Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 22-14-3 (.603) (2-1 in Week 13: QB (W, 10-3): J. Flacco BAL 16, M. Sanchez NYJ 2; RB (W, 6-5-2): D. Woodhead NE 11, S. Greene NYJ 6; WR (L, 6-6-1): J. Ford OAK 4, D. Branch NE 14)
WEEK 14 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
  • Locals: NYG (W at MIN), NYJ (W vs. MIA), PHL (W at DAL), NE (W at CHI)
  • Big Game Winners: JAX (vs. OAK), NO (vs. STL), SDG (vs. KCY)
  • Other Winners: IND (at TEN), PIT (vs. CIN), GBY (at DET), CLE (at BUF), TBY (at WSH), ATL (at CAR), SFO (vs. SEA), DEN (at ARZ), BAL (at HOU)
Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
  • Locals: NYG (-3 at MIN), NYJ (-5.5 vs. MIA), PHL (-3 at DAL), CHI (+3 vs. NE)
  • Big Game Covers: JAX (-4.5 vs. OAK), STL (+9.5 at NO), KCY (+7 at SDG)
  • Other Covers: IND (-3 at TEN), PIT (-9 vs. CIN), GBY (-6.5 at DET), CLE (+1.5 at BUF), TBY (-1.5 at WSH), ATL (-7 at CAR), SEA (+5 at SFO), DEN (-3 at ARZ), BAL (-3 at HOU)
Knockout Pool
  • Round 5: Jacksonville (vs. Oakland)
PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
  • QB: Start Alex Smith SFO (vs. SEA), Sit Drew Stanton DET (vs. GBY)
  • RB: Start Knowshon Moreno DEN (at ARZ), Sit Tashard Choice DAL (vs. PHL)
  • WR: Start Anquan Boldin BAL (at HOU), Sit Calvin Johnson DET (vs. GBY)
***

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#90) on Wednesday night, December 15th, at 9pm ET. We will preview the pivotal Eagles-Giants matchup, as well as the rest of the matchups in Week 15. In hockey, how will the Rangers do against some of the best in the NHL and what is with the Flyers and overtime? Plus, will Cliff Lee sign by Wednesday and which team will he pick?

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
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Week 13 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 12 results in parentheses)
  • Picks - Straight Up: 109-67 (.619) (11-5 in Week 12)
  • Picks - Against The Spread: 86-83-7 (.509) (7-9 in Week 12)
  • Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 5 after Week 12 (8-4, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND, NO, PIT; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE)
  • Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 20-13-3 (.597) (1-1-1 in Week 12: QB (W, 9-3): E. Manning NYG 25, D. Garrard JAX 13; RB (L, 5-5-2): M. Lynch SEA 3, F. Jackson BUF 27; WR (P, 6-5-1): S. Rice MIN 2, D. Jackson PHL 2)
WEEK 13 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
  • Locals: NYG (W vs. WSH), NYJ (W at NE), PHL (W vs. HOU), NE (L vs. NYJ)
  • Big Game Winners: ATL (at TBY), PIT (at BAL), TEN (vs. JAX)
  • Other Winners: MIN (vs. BUF), NO (at CIN), GBY (vs. SFO), KCY (vs. DEN), CLE (at MIA), DET (vs. CHI), SDG (vs. OAK), SEA (vs. CAR), IND (vs. DAL), STL (at ARZ)
Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
  • Locals: NYG (-7 vs. WSH), NYJ (+3 at NE), PHL (-8 vs. HOU)
  • Big Game Covers: ATL (-3 at TBY), PIT (+3 at BAL), TEN (-3 vs. JAX)
  • Other Covers: BUF (+5.5 at MIN), NO (-6.5 at CIN), SFO (+9.5 at GBY), DEN (+9 at KCY), CLE (+5 at MIA), DET (+4.5 vs. CHI), SDG (-12.5 vs. OAK), SEA (-6 vs. CAR), IND (-5 vs. DAL), STL (-3 at ARZ)
Knockout Pool
  • Round 5: Atlanta (at Tampa Bay)
PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
  • QB: Start Joe Flacco BAL (vs. PIT), Sit Mark Sanchez NYJ (at NE)
  • RB: Start Danny Woodhead NE (vs. NYJ), Sit Shonn Greene NYJ (at NE)
  • WR: Start Jacoby Ford OAK (at SDG), Sit Deion Branch NE (vs. NYJ)
***

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#89) on Wednesday night, December 8th, at 9pm ET. We will recap the Jets-Patriots in their fight for the upper hand in the AFCE East and preview Week 14 around the NFL. In hockey, we will look at the All-Pro injured list. And, we will have the latest updates on free agent movement in baseball.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
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Sunday, November 28, 2010

Week 12 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 11 results in parentheses)
  • Picks - Straight Up: 98-62 (.616) (10-6 in Week 11)
  • Picks - Against The Spread: 79-74-7 (.516) (7-9 in Week 11)
  • Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 5 after Week 11 (7-4, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND, NO; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE)
  • Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 19-12-2 (.606) (2-1 in Week 11: QB (W, 8-3): M. Sanchez NYJ 30, M. Cassel KCY 18; RB (L, 5-4-2): C. Benson CIN 17, A. Foster HOU 20; WR (W, 6-5): N. Washington TEN 11, A. Boldin BAL 1)
WEEK 12 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
  • Locals: NYG (W vs. JAX), NYJ (vs. CIN), PHL (W at CHI), NE (W at DET)
  • Big Game Winners: GBY (at ATL), BAL (vs. TBY), SDG (at IND)
  • Other Winners: NO (at DAL), MIN (at WSH), HOU (vs. TEN), CLE (vs. CAR), PIT (at BUF), SEA (vs. KCY), OAK (vs. MIA), DEN (vs. STL), SFO (at ARZ)
Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
  • Locals: JAX (+7 at NYG), NYJ (-8.5 vs. CIN), PHL (-3 at CHI), NE (-6.5 at DET)
  • Big Game Covers: GBY (+1.5 at ATL), TBY (+7.5 at BAL), SDG (+3 at IND)
  • Other Covers: NO (-3.5 at DAL), MIN (+1 at WSH), TEN (+6.5 at HOU), CLE (-10 vs. CAR), PIT (-6.5 at BUF), SEA (+2 vs. KCY), OAK (+0.5 vs. MIA), DEN (-4 vs. STL), SFO (-1 at BUF)
Knockout Pool
  • Round 5: Pittsburgh (at Buffalo)
PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
  • QB: Start Eli Manning NYG (vs. JAX), Sit David Garrard JAX (at NYG)
  • RB: Start Marshawn Lynch SEA (vs. KCY), Sit Fred Jackson BUF (vs. PIT)
  • WR: Start Sidney Rice MIN (at WSH), Sit DeSean Jackson PHL (at CHI)
***

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#88) on Wednesday night, December 1st, at 9pm ET. We will preview the upcoming Jets-Patriots clash in Foxboro, review Week 12, and preview Week 13 around the NFL. In hockey, we will preview all of the local matchups in December. Plus, we will keep the Hot Stove fires burning with news and views on the baseball offseason.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
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Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Pride vs. Pinstripes

When Derek Jeter grew up, he was a Yankee fan. When the Yankees drafted him and nurtured him through their farm system, it was a dream come true. The Yankees made him proud and made him rich, to the tune of a reported $205 million over 15 seasons. The 10-year, $189 mega-deal is up and he wants to return. The Yankees want him back. So, what’s the problem?

Jeter wants to return at his price and the Yankees want him to return at their price. There doesn’t seem to be much of a gray area between both offers, at least for now. You can normally tell what happens during a negotiation by the way it is reported in the press. The negotiations have been public, but professional. Brian Cashman added some gas to the fire by tempting Jeter to test the market.

Cashman sounds like a car dealer so sure of the deal he has on the table, he encourages you to test drive other cars and confident you will return and take his deal. But, what Cashman fails to realize is there are 29 teams salivating right now. Everyone knows the Cashman’s proposal and every team is immediately checking their budget to see how much they can offer.
Forget what he is worth. That is no longer material because if it was, Jeter would be offered a 3-year, $30 million deal. The back-end of a larger term would not be good value for the money. It probably will not be the same as the rough time the Mets suffered with the final years of the Pedro Martinez deal.

But, if more years are offered by another team, the reason to getting Jeter would be the same as the Mets’ reasons for signing Pedro Martinez after the 2004 season. The Mets were trying to change a culture and propel themselves forward. Mission accomplished. There are 29 other teams out there that can look at that blueprint as a nice example to why overpaying for intangibles is a good idea. The bump at the gate and the merchandising revenue of a chase to 3,000 hits would more than make up for the extra millions shelled out to bring Jeter to town.

The pride of the player and the organization is at stake for the privilege to wear the pinstripes for the rest of Jeter’s career. The pride of Jeter was evident when he refused to cede the shortstop position to Alex Rodriguez when he came aboard in 2004. Rodriguez’s recent contract extension that takes him through 2017 and age 42 is also guiding Jeter here. The pride of Jeter is coming into play again in this case because he may perceive the three-year deal as a slap in the face if the Yankees did not extend him until 2016, which would be Jeter’s age-42 season. The current deal Cashman is proposing only takes Jeter to his 39th birthday.

Do I think a team will offer Jeter more than the 3-year, $45 million deal Cashman and the Yankees are proposing? No. Even if a team does, it would be tough for the Yankees not to at least match the deal, especially if the other suitor is the Red Sox or Mets.

So, for all of the posturing, bad press, and threats from Yankee fans about not attending games or watching games if Jeter is not on the team, rest easy. Jeter will be wearing number 2 and hitting second in the Yankee lineup come April.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

The Firing Line: November

In the wake of the firing of Minnesota Vikings coach Brad Childress, I thought of what the odds must have been after the Vikings were as limp as a wet dishrag against the rival Packers, 31-3, last Sunday. I thought it was even money, if not worse, that Childress would get the heave-ho. Childress was easy, but who will be next?

I would like to present this new monthly column, which will look at the odds that a coach in any of the three sports we cover on "Sports With The StatMan" will be canned in the next month.

COACHES ALREADY FIRED THIS SEASON

Wade Phillips – Dallas Cowboys (NFL) – Fired November 8th

Scott Gordon – New York Islanders (NHL) – Fired November 15th

Brad Childress – Minnesota Vikings (NFL) – Fired November 22nd

THE FIRING LINE – NOVEMBER

1. Marvin Lewis – Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) – 5-to-1

We saw the Cowboys give up after getting crunched by the Packers. We saw the Vikings exhale against the Packers. The Packers play Atlanta next and Mike Smith is not going anywhere. But, what other teams are giving up? The Bengals are at the top of the list. They are 2-8 after standing still while the Buffalo Bills scored 35 unanswered second-half points against the Bengals last Sunday. Terrell Owens called the team "terrible". If the Jets make Marvin Lewis's Bengals look bad on Thursday night, the move might be made before those doorbusters on Friday morning.

2. John MacLean – New Jersey Devils (NHL) – 10-to-1

The Devils shut out Washington at home on Monday night, 5-0, to win only their second game at home this season. This is considered an upswing for the Devils, a franchise that has symbolized stability and winning over the last decade-and-a-half. MacLean may get a little bit of a pass because he is a first-year head coach that paid his dues for the organization in Lowell, foregoing head coaching opportunities elsewhere to be a good company man. But, the patience with the fan base is wearing thin because bad patterns in the Devils play are evolving and coaching is supposed to stop that in its tracks. If the Devils fall backward again, MacLean could get the boot.

3. Gary Kubiak – Houston Texans (NFL) – 25-to-1

Watching the Texans trail the Jets, 23-7, heading into the fourth quarter last Sunday, one would think Kubiak's job was on brittle footing. The Texans had a great finish, even pulling ahead 27-23 with less than a minute left, but a loss is a loss. The Texans are 2-6 after a 2-0 start where they surprised the AFC defending Champion Colts and came from behind to score the last 20 points in a 30-27 overtime thriller at Washington. Houston has not won since their bye week (0-4) and the Texans defense has been atrocious, bleeding 30 points a game to the opposition. Kubiak saved his job with a 9-7 year in 2009, but I don't see that happening this time around.

4. John Fox – Carolina Panthers (NFL) – 50-to-1

The excuse for Carolina's awful 1-9 record has been injuries. The Panthers were down to their fourth-string quarterback in Brian St. Pierre against Baltimore. Matt Moore and Jimmy Claussen are out with injuries and rookie Tony Pike was not ready to start against the Ravens punishing defense. But, it is not just the passing game. The running game is in shambles, too. DeAngelo Williams is done for the year with a foot injury and the Jonathan Stewart is recovering from a concussion. With Steve Smith withering away, things are not finer in the state of Carolina. Fox will most likely last the season, but his days are definitely numbered.

5. Tom Renney – Edmonton Oilers (NHL) – 100-to-1

The Oilers were the worst team in hockey last year and garnered the first pick in this season's Entry Draft. But, Taylor Hall and Magnus Paajarvi has not started out well, while Jordan Eberle has put up some points and highlight-reel goals. It is one thing to say the personnel that Renney has had to work with is young and inexperienced. But, the Oilers have been hemorrhaging goals. Nikolai Khabibulin has been brutal (4-10-1, 4.07 GAA, .879 Save%). Edmonton has allowed the most goals in the NHL (77) and scored the second-fewest goals in the Western Conference (49), giving the Oilers have the worst goal differential in the NHL (minus-28). Due to the low expectations for the team, Renney will probably survive, but look at the Islanders, who canned Scott Gordon after 17 games despite finishing in 26th place last season.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Week 11 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 10 results in parentheses)
  • Picks - Straight Up: 88-56 (.611) (7-7 in Week 10)
  • Picks - Against The Spread: 72-65-7 (.524) (4-10 in Week 10)
  • Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 5 after Week 10 (6-4, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE)
  • Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 17-11-2 (.600) (2-0-1 in Week 10: QB (W, 7-3): D. Garrard JAX 36, B. Favre MIN 9; RB (T, 5-3-2): J. Charles KCY 18, F. Gore SFO 18; WR (W, 5-5): K. Walter HOU 15, S. Moss WSH 2)
WEEK 11 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
  • Locals: NYG (W at PHL), NYJ (W vs. HOU), PHL (L vs. NYG), NE (W vs. IND)
  • Big Game Winners: MIN (vs. GBY), PIT (vs. OAK), SFO (vs. TBY)
  • Other Winners: CHI (at MIA), CIN (vs. BUF), CLE (at JAX), TEN (vs. WSH), BAL (at CAR), KCY (vs. ARZ), DAL (vs. DET), ATL (at STL), NO (vs. SEA), SDG (vs. DEN)
Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
  • Locals: NYG (+3 at PHL), NYJ (-7 vs. HOU), NE (-3.5 vs. IND)
  • Big Game Covers: MIN (+3 vs. GBY), OAK (+7 at PIT), TBY (+3.5 at SFO)
  • Other Covers: CHI (+1.5 at MIA), BUF (+5.5 at CIN), CLE (+1.5 at JAX), TEN (-7 vs. WSH), BAL (-10 at CAR), KCY (-7.5 vs. ARZ), DET (+6.5 at DAL), ATL (-3 at STL), NO (-11.5 vs. SEA), DEN (+10 at SDG)
Knockout Pool
  • Round 5: New Orleans (vs. Seattle)
PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
QB: Start Mark Sanchez NYJ (vs. HOU), Sit Matt Cassel KCY (vs. ARZ)
RB: Start Cedric Benson CIN (vs. BUF), Sit Arian Foster HOU (at NYJ)
WR: Start Nate Washington TEN (vs. WSH), Sit Anquan Boldin BAL (at CAR)

***

There is no audio this week for the NFL Fantasy Update or the NFL Picks and Predictions. We'll return with that next week, but you can catch the audio from previous weeks on http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman.

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#87) on Friday night, November 26th, at 9pm ET. We will break down the Giants-Eagles NFC East showdown as well as the rest of Week 11 in the NFL. We will list the major free agents in baseball with our guesses on where they will land in 2011. And, in hockey, the Rangers and Flyers are fighting for the Atlantic, while the Devils and Islanders are fighting for the basement.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"
Extra audio available at: http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Week 10 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 9 results in parentheses)
  • Picks - Straight Up: 81-49 (.623) (12-1 in Week 10)
  • Picks - Against The Spread: 68-55-7 (.550) (7-5-1 in Week 9)
  • Knockout Pool - Dead in Round 4 after Week 9 (5-4, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE)
  • Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 15-11-1 (.574) (0-3 in Week 9: QB (L, 6-3): J. Freeman TBY 21, J. Flacco BAL 24; RB (L, 5-3-1): D. Sproles SDG 0, J. Best DET 8; WR (L, 4-5): B. Tate NE 1, D. Bowe KCY 12)
WEEK 10 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
  • Locals: NYG (W vs. DAL), NYJ (W at CLE), PHL (W at WSH), NE (L at PIT)
  • Big Game Winners: BAL (at ATL), TEN (at MIA), MIN (at CHI)
  • Other Winners: BUF (vs. DET), TBY (vs. CAR), IND (vs. CIN), HOU (at JAX), KCY (at DEN), SFO (vs. STL), ARZ (vs. SEA)
Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
  • Locals: NYG (-13.5 vs. DAL), NYJ (-3 at CLE), PHL (-3 at WSH), NE (+4.5 at PIT)
  • Big Game Covers: BAL (+1 at ATL), TEN (-2 at MIA), MIN (-1 at CHI)
  • Other Covers: BUF (-3 vs. DET), CAR (+7 at TBY), IND (-7 vs. CIN), HOU (+1.5 at JAX), KCY (-1 at DEN), STL (+6 at SFO), ARZ (-3 vs. SEA)
Knockout Pool
  • Round 5: Indianapolis (vs. Cincinnati)
PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
  • QB: Start David Garrard JAX (vs. HOU), Sit Brett Favre MIN (at CHI)
  • RB: Start Jamaal Charles KCY (at DEN), Sit Frank Gore SFO (vs. STL)
  • WR: Start Kevin Walter HOU (at JAX), Sit Santana Moss WSH (vs. PHL)
***

There is no audio this week for the NFL Fantasy Update or the NFL Picks and Predictions. We'll return with that next week, but you can catch the audio from previous weeks on http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman.

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#86) on Thursday evening, November 18th, at a special time, 7pm ET. Will the Jets and Patriots still be tied atop the AFC East? Can the Patriots avoid losing two in a row on the road on Sunday night at Pittsburgh? How bad of a beating will the Giants put on the demoralized Cowboys? We will also break down the list of free agents in baseball and we'll talk about how hot the surging Flyers are in hockey.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
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Sunday, November 7, 2010

Week 9 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 8 results in parentheses)
  • Picks - Straight Up: 69-48, .590 (10-3 in Week 8)
  • Picks - Against The Spread: 61-50-6, .547 (9-4 in Week 8)
  • Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 4 after Week 8 (5-3, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO)
  • Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 15-8-1 (.646) (0-3 in Week 8: QB (L, 6-2): J. Kitna DAL 12, T. Brady NE 19; RB (L, 5-2-1): J. Stewart CAR 3, M. Bush OAK 14; WR (L, 4-4): S. Johnson BUF 5, T. Owens CIN 18)

WEEK 9 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
  • Locals: NYG (W at SEA), NYJ (W at DET), PHL (W vs. IND), NE (W at CLE)
  • Big Game Winners: OAK (vs. KCY), BAL (vs. MIA), ATL (vs. TBY)
  • Other Winners: MIN (vs. ARZ), CHI (at BUF), SDG (at HOU), NO (at CAR), GBY (vs. DAL), PIT (at CIN)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
  • Locals: NYG (-6.5 at SEA), NYJ (-4 at DET), PHL (-3 vs. IND), NE (-4 at CLE)
  • Big Game Covers: OAK (-2 vs. KCY), MIA (+5 at BAL), TBY (+8.5 at ATL)
  • Other Covers: ARZ (+8 at MIN), CHI (-3 at BUF), SDG (-3 at HOU), NO (-6.5 at CAR), DAL (+7.5 at GBY), PIT (-4.5 at CIN)

Knockout Pool
Round 4: New England (at Cleveland)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
  • QB: Start Josh Freeman TBY (at ATL), Sit Joe Flacco BAL (vs. MIA)
  • RB: Start Darren Sproles SDG (at HOU), Sit Jahvid Best DET (vs. NYJ)
  • WR: Start Brandon Tate NE (at CLE), Sit Dwayne Bowe KCY (at OAK)

Sunday, October 31, 2010

Week 8 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 7 results in parentheses)
Picks - Straight Up: 59-45 .567 (6-8 in Week 7)
Picks - Against The Spread: 52-46-6, .529 (3-11 in Week 7)
Knockout Pool - Dead in Round 3 after Week 7 (4-3, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 15-5-1 (.738) (1-1-1 in Week 7: QB (L, 6-1): S. Bradford STL 12, C. Henne MIA 18; RB (T, 5-1-1): C. Ivory NO 4, D. Williams CAR 4; WR (W, 4-3): P. Crayton 8, B. Marshall 5)

WEEK 8 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
Locals: NYJ (vs. GBY), NE (vs. MIN), NYG (BYE), PHL (BYE)
Big Game Winners: SDG (vs. TEN), PIT (at NO), IND (vs. HOU)
Other Winners: KCY (vs. BUF), DAL (vs. JAX), STL (vs. CAR), MIA (at CIN), DET (vs. WSH), SFO (vs. DEN), TBY (at ARZ), OAK (vs. SEA)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
Locals: GBY (+6 at NYJ), MIN (+5 at NE), NYG (BYE), PHL (BYE)
Big Game Covers: SDG (-3.5 vs. TEN), PIT (Pick 'em at NO), HOU (+5.5 at IND)
Other Covers: KCY (-7.5 vs. BUF), JAX (+6.5 at DAL), STL (-3 vs. CAR), MIA (+2 at CIN), DET (-2.5 vs. WSH), SFO (-1 vs. DEN), TBY (+3 at ARZ), OAK (-2.5 vs. SEA)

Knockout Pool
Round 4: Kansas City (vs. Buffalo)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
QB: Start Jon Kitna DAL (vs. JAX), Sit Tom Brady NE (vs. MIN)
RB: Start Jonathan Stewart CAR (at STL), Sit Michael Bush OAK (vs. SEA)
WR/TE: Start Steve Johnson BUF (at KCY), Sit Terrell Owens CIN (vs. MIA)

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Week 7 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 6 results in parentheses)
Picks - Straight Up: 53-37 .589 (9-5 in Week 6)
Picks - Against The Spread: 49-35-6, .578 (5-6-3 in Week 6)
Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 3 after Week 6 (4-2, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL; Losses - WSH, CHI)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 14-4 (3-0 in Week 6: QB (W, 6-0): M. Cassel KCY 28, M. Schaub 22; RB (W, 5-1): A. Bradshaw NYG 14, P. Hillis CLE 8; WR (W, 3-3): K. Britt TEN 9, R. White ATL 8)

WEEK 7 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
Locals: PHL (W at TEN), NE (L at SDG), NYG (L at DAL), NYJ (BYE)
Big Game Winners: CHI (vs. WSH), PIT (at MIA), MIN (at GBY)
Other Winners: NO (vs. CLE), KCY (vs. JAX), ATL (vs. CIN), TBY (vs. STL), BAL (vs. BUF), SFO (at CAR), SEA (vs. ARZ), DEN (vs. OAK)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
Locals: PHL (+3 at TEN), SDG (-2.5 vs. NE), DAL (-3 vs. NYG), NYJ (BYE)
Big Game Covers: CHI (-3 vs. WSH), PIT (-3 at MIA), MIN (+2.5 at GBY)
Other Covers: NO (-13.5 vs. CLE), KCY (-9 vs. JAX), ATL (-3.5 vs. CIN), TBY (-3 vs. STL), BAL (-13 vs. BUF), SFO (-3 at CAR), ARZ (+6 at SEA), OAK (+8.5 at DEN)

Knockout Pool
Round 3: New Orleans (vs. Cleveland)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
QB: Start Sam Bradford STL (at TBY), Sit Chad Henne MIA (vs. PIT)
RB: Start Chris Ivory NO (vs. CLE), Sit DeAngelo Williams CAR (vs. SFO)
WR/TE: Start Patrick Crayton SDG (vs. NE), Sit Brandon Marshall MIA (vs. PIT)

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Week 6 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 5 results in parentheses)
Picks - Straight Up: 44-32, .579 (9-5 in Week 5)
Picks - Against The Spread: 44-29-3, .599 (10-4 in Week 5)
Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 2 after Week 5 (4-1, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL; Losses - WSH)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 11-4 (2-1 in Week 5: QB (W, 5-0): R. Fitzpatrick BUF 26, J. Freeman TBY 17; RB (W, 4-1): R. Rice BAL 23, T. Jones KCY 1; WR (L, 2-3): J. Knox CHI 1, D. Driver GBY 5)

WEEK 6 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
Locals: NYG (W vs. DET), NYJ (W at DEN), PHL (L vs. ATL), NE (L vs. BAL)
Big Game Winners: GBY (vs. MIA), HOU (vs. KCY), MIN (vs. DAL)
Other Winners: PIT (vs. CLE), CHI (vs. SEA), SDG (at STL), NO (at TBY), SFO (vs. OAK), IND (at WSH), TEN (at JAX)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
Locals: NYG (-10 vs. DET), NYJ (-3 at DEN), ATL (+2.5 at PHL), BAL (+3 at NE)
Big Game Covers: MIA (+6.5 at GBY), KCY (+4 at HOU), MIN (-1.5 vs. DAL)
Other Covers: CLE (+13.5 at PIT), CHI (-6.5 vs. SEA), SDG (-8 at STL), NO (-4 at TBY), OAK (+6.5 at SFO), IND (-3 at WSH), TEN (-3 at JAX)

Knockout Pool
Round 2: Chicago (vs. Seattle)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
QB: Start Matt Cassel KCY (at HOU), Sit Matt Schaub HOU (vs. KCY)
RB: Start Ahmad Bradshaw NYG (vs. DET), Sit Peyton Hillis CLE (at PIT)
WR/TE: Start Kenny Britt TEN (at JAX), Sit Roddy White ATL (at PHL)

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Week 5 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 4 results in parentheses)
Picks - Straight Up: 35-27, .565 (8-6 in Week 4)
Picks - Against The Spread: 34-25-3, .573 (8-6 in Week 4)
Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 2 after Week 4 (3-1, Teams Used: NYG, PHL, SDG, WSH)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play - 9-3 (2-1 in Week 4: QB (W, 4-0): B. Gradkowski OAK 19, J. Cutler CHI (-2); RB (W, 3-1): S. Greene NYJ 11, C. Benson CIN 6; WR (L, 2-2): J. Maclin 1, M. Floyd 4)

WEEK 5 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
Locals: NYG (W at HOU), PHL (L at SFO), NYJ (W vs. MIN), NE (BYE)
Big Game Winners: BAL (vs. DEN), GBY (at WSH), TEN (at DAL)
Other Winners: JAX (at BUF), ATL (at CLE), DET (vs. STL), IND (vs. KCY), CIN (vs. TBY), CHI (at CAR), NO (at ARZ), SDG (at OAK)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
Locals: NYG (+3 at HOU), SFO (-3 vs. PHL), NYJ (-4 vs. MIN), NE (BYE)
Big Game Covers: BAL (-7 vs. DEN), GBY (-2.5 at WSH), TEN (+6.5 at DAL)
Other Covers: JAX (Pick 'em at BUF), ATL (-3 at CLE), DET (-3 vs. STL), IND (-7.5 vs. KCY), TBY (+6.5 at CIN), CHI (-3 at CAR), NO (-6.5 at ARZ), SDG (-6 at OAK)

Knockout Pool
Round 2: Baltimore (vs. Denver)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF (vs. JAX), Sit Josh Freeman (at CIN)
RB: Ray Rice BAL (vs. DEN), Sit Thomas Jones KCY (at IND)
WR/TE: Johnny Knox CHI (at CAR), Sit Donald Driver (at WSH)

Sunday, October 3, 2010

Week 4 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 3 results in parentheses)
Picks - Straight Up: 27-21 (10-6 in Week 3)
Picks - Against The Spread: 26-19-3 (9-7 in Week 3)
Knockout Pool - Knocked Out in Week 3 (2-1, Teams Used: NYG, PHL, WSH)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play - 7-2 (3-0 in Week 3: QB (W, 3-0): K. Orton DEN 28, M. Ryan ATL 23; RB (W, 2-1): M. Tolbert SDG 7, R. Brown MIA 5; WR (W, 2-1): L. Murphy 11, H. Nicks NYG 5)

WEEK 4 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
Locals: NYJ (W at BUF), PHL (W vs. WSH), NYG (L vs. CHI), NE (W at MIA)
Big Game Winners: BAL (at PIT), HOU (at OAK), TEN (vs. DEN)
Other Winners: CIN (at CLE), NO (vs. CAR), ATL (vs. SFO), SEA (at STL), GBY (vs. DET), IND (at JAX), SDG (vs. ARZ)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
Locals: CHI (+4 at NYG), NYJ (-5 at BUF), WSH (+5.5 at PHL), NE (Pick 'em at MIA)
Big Game Covers: BAL (+1.5 at PIT), HOU (-3 at OAK), TEN (-6.5 vs. DEN)
Other Covers: CIN (-3 at CLE), NO (-13.5 vs. CAR), SFO (+7 at ATL), SEA (-1 at STL), DET (+14.5 at GBY), IND (-7 at JAX), SDG (-8 vs. ARZ)

Knockout Pool
Round 2: San Diego (vs. Arizona)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
QB: Start Bruce Gradkowski OAK (vs. HOU), Sit Jay Cutler CHI (at NYG)
RB: Start Shonn Greene NYJ (at BUF), Sit Cedric Benson CIN (at CLE)
WR/TE: Start Jeremy Maclin PHL (vs. WSH), Sit Malcom Floyd SDG (vs. ARZ)

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Week 3 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 2 results in parentheses)
Picks - Straight Up: 17-15 (9-7 in Week 2)
Picks - Against The Spread: 16-12-3 (8-7 in Week 2)
Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 1 (2-0, Teams Used: NYG, PHL)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play - 4-2 (2-1 in Week 2: QB (W, 2-0): M. vick 28 PHL, C. Palmer CIN 6; RB (L, 1-1): J. Addai IND 11, R. Mendenhall PIT 6; WR (W, 1-1): D. Bryant DAL 5, G. Jennings GBY 3)

PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
Locals: NYG (W vs. TEN), NE (W vs. BUF), PHL (W at JAX), NYJ (W at MIA)
Big Game Winners: DAL (at HOU), SFO (at KCY), NO (vs. ATL)
Other Winners: CIN (at CAR), BAL (vs. CLE), PIT (at TBY), MIN (vs. DET), WSH (at STL), SDG (at SEA), ARZ (vs. OAK), IND (at DEN), GBY (at CHI)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
Locals: NYG (-3 vs. TEN), NE (-14 vs. BUF), PHL (-3 at JAX), NYJ (+2 at MIA)
Big Game Covers: DAL (+3 at HOU), SFO (-2.5 at KCY), NO (-4 vs. ATL)
Other Covers: CIN (-3 at CAR), CLE (+10.5 at BAL), PIT (-2.5 at TBY), MIN (-10.5 vs. DET), WSH (-3.5 at STL), SDG (-5.5 at SEA), OAK (+4 at ARZ), IND (-5.5 at DEN), GBY (-3 at CHI)

Knockout Pool
Washington (at St. Louis)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
QB: Start Kyle Orton DEN (vs. IND), Sit Matt Ryan ATL (at NO)
RB: Start Mike Tolbert SDG (at SEA), Sit Ronnie Brown MIA (vs. NYJ)
WR/TE: Start Louis Murphy OAK (at ARZ), Sit Hakeem Nicks NYG (vs. TEN)

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Week 2 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
Picks - Straight Up: 8-8
Picks - Against The Spread: 8-5-3
Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 1 (1-0, Teams Used: NYG)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play - 2-1 (QB (W, 1-0): J. Cutler CHI 31, D. McNabb WSH 7; RB (W, 1-0): R. Brown MIA 12, S. Jackson STL 8; WR (L, 0-1): D. Mason BAL 2, M. Crabtree SFO 1)

PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
Locals: PHL (W at DET), NE (W at NYJ), NYJ (L vs. NE), NYG (L at IND)
Big Game Winners: TEN (vs. PIT), MIN (vs. MIA), SFO (vs. NO)
Other Winners: BAL (at CIN), CHI (at DAL), ATL (vs. ARZ), KCY (at CLE), GBY (vs. BUF), CAR (vs. TBY), OAK (vs. STL), SEA (at DEN), HOU (at WSH), SDG (vs. JAX)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
Locals: PHL (-6 at DET), NE (-3 at NYJ), IND (-5 vs. NYG)
Big Game Covers: TEN (-5 vs. PIT), MIN (-5.5 vs. MIA), SFO (+5.5 vs. NO)
Other Covers: BAL (-2.5 at CIN), CHI (+7.5 at DAL), ATL (-6.5 vs ARZ), KCY (+2 at CLE), GBY (-12.5 vs. BUF), CAR (-3.5 vs. CAR), STL (+3.5 at OAK), SEA (+3 at DEN), HOU (-2.5 at WSH), SDG (-7 vs. JAX)

Knockout Pool
Philadelphia (at DET)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
QB: Start Michael Vick PHL (at DET), Sit Carson Palmer CIN (vs. BAL)
RB: Start Rashard Mendenhall PIT (at TEN), Sit Joseph Addai IND (vs. NYG)
WR/TE: Start Dez Bryant DAL (vs. CHI), Sit Greg Jennings GBY (vs. BUF)

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Week 1 Picks & Predictions

PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
  • Locals: NYG (W vs. CAR), NYJ (W vs. BAL), PHL (L vs. GBY), NE (W vs. CIN)
  • Big Game Winners: IND (at HOU), ATL (at PIT), DAL (at WSH)
  • Other Winners: MIA (at BUF), DET (at CHI), CLE (at TBY), JAX (vs. DEN), TEN (vs. OAK), SFO (at SEA), ARZ (at STL), SDG (at KCY)
Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
  • Locals: NYG (-6.5 vs. CAR), NYJ (-2.5 vs. BAL), GBY (+3 at PHL), NE (-4.5 vs. CIN)
  • Big Game Covers: IND (-2 at HOU), ATL (-2 at PIT), WSH (+3.5 vs. DAL)
  • Other Covers: MIA (-3 at BUF), DET (+7 at CHI), CLE (+3 vs. TBY), JAX (-2.5 vs. DEN), TEN (-6 vs. OAK), SFO (-3 at SEA), ARZ (-4 at STL), SDG (-4.5 at KCY)
Knockout Pool
  • N.Y. Giants (vs. Carolina)
PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
  • QB: Start Jay Cutler CHI (vs. DET), Donovan McNabb WSH (vs. DAL)
  • RB: Start Ronnie Brown MIA (at BUF), Sit Steven Jackson STL (vs. ARZ)
  • WR/TE: Start Michael Crabtree SFO (at SEA), Sit Derrick Mason BAL (at NYJ)

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Sports With The StatMan #75: Show Notes

Preseason football is just that...the preseason. So, why do fans call for coaches to be fired after a preseason game? We talk about that and the new and improved "Bridge to Mariano". We look over the September schedules for the contenders and compare. Plus, the local teams are featured in the 2010 StatMan NFL Preview of the AFC East and NFC East.

This is a new way of putting together the notes for our show. Instead of summarizing the show, I will try to break the show down into smaller pieces so you can listen to the segments of the show that interest you.

Here is the list of topics we talked about:
  • 00:00-02:00 – Intro
  • 02:00-07:15 – Value of NFL Preseason games
  • 07:15-12:45 – New and improved Bridge to Mariano
  • 12:45-14:30 – Around the AL East
  • 14:30-16:00 – Phillies' West Coast swing
  • 16:00-18:00 – Around the NL (Reds-Cardinals, Padres, Giants)
  • 18:00-20:00 – MLB disappointing teams of 2010
  • 20:00-22:15 – Coming up on the show, Nationals-Marlins brawl
  • 22:15-29:00 – Show information, Upcoming September shows, NFL Week 1 local schedules
  • 29:00-51:00 – September contender schedules (games left, games vs. .500+ teams, home games, games vs. competition, standings)
    • 29:00 – Yankees (29 games left, 19 vs. .500+ teams, 13 home games, 7 vs. TB/6 vs. BOS, 1 GA of TB in AL East/8 GA of BOS in AL East)
    • 31:45 – Rays (29, 13, 12, 7 vs. NYY/3 vs. BOS, 1 GB of NYY in AL East/7 GA of BOS in AL Wild Card)
    • 34:15 – Red Sox (29, 19, 12, 6 vs. NYY/3 vs. TB, 8 GB of NYY in AL East/7 GB of TB in AL Wild Card)
    • 37:30 – Phillies (29, 14, 16, 6 vs. ATL/0 vs. SF, 3 GB of ATL in NL East/1.5 GA of SF in NL Wild Card)
    • 40:30 – Braves (29, 16, 14, 6 vs. PHL, 3 GA of PHL in NL East)
    • 43:00 – Giants (28, 16, 12, 7 vs. SD/0 vs. PHL, 3 GB of SD in NL West/1.5 GB of PHL in NL Wild Card)
    • 45:00 – Padres (30, 26, 17, 7 vs. SF, 3 GA of SF in NL West)
    • 48:00 – Twins (29, 10, 17, 3 vs. CHW, 4 GA of CHW in AL Central)
    • 49:15 – White Sox (29, 10, 16, 3 vs. MIN, 4 GB of MIN in AL Central)
  • 51:00-55:15 – MLB: Big Series over the next week
  • 55:15-57:30 – How to get in touch with the show
  • 57:30-58:30 – Next week on Sports With The StatMan (9/8, 9pm ET)
  • 58:30-1:00:00 – Show review
  • 1:00:00- – 2010 StatMan NFL Preview - AFC East, NFC East (2009 actual record/2010 predicted record)
    • 1:00:00 – AFC East: Buffalo Bills (6-10/3-13)
    • 1:05:15 – AFC East: Miami Dolphins (7-9/9-7)
    • 1:11:00 – AFC East: New England Patriots (10-6/13-3)
    • 1:15:45 – AFC East: New York Jets (9-7/11-5)
    • 1:24:45 – NFC East: Dallas Cowboys (11-5/9-7)
    • 1:29:00 – NFC East: New York Giants (8-8/10-6)
    • 1:35:00 – NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (11-5/7-9)
    • 1:38:30 – NFC East: Washington Redskins (4-12/5-11)
    • 1:42:30 – Big Questions recap, predicted standings, next week's preview
  • 1:42:45-1:43:15 – Next week: Playoff Predictions and Fantasy Preview as 2010 StatMan NFL Preview finishes up
  • 1:43:15-1:53:00 – MLB: Fantasy Update – Last 7 days (Alex Rios/Edwin Jackson), Season-to-date (Albert Pujols/Roy Halladay), Triple Crown Chase
  • 1:53:00-1:54:30 – Show Close: Recap and Next Week's Preview
Join us for the next episode of Sports With The StatMan (#76), which will be on Wednesday night, September 8th, at 9pm Eastern time. We will finish our 2010 StatMan NFL Preview with playoff predictions and our Fantasy Preview. We will also preview Week 1 in the NFL.

HOW TO FIND THE SHOW

VISIT the show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
FOLLOW the show on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/gstatman
READ the Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
DOWNLOAD the show on iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Was Dan Duquette Right?

Roger Clemens is back in the news. Federal indictments and the threat of jail time seem to do that. Clemens has been charged with one count of obstruction of Congress, three counts of false statements to Congress, and two counts of perjury. There are six counts in all and each count is a felony, which is punishable by five years each for a grand total of up to 30 years in prison. Clemens and his trusty attorney, Rusty Hardin, have their work cut out for them. The question I keep having is: "Where did Roger Clemens go wrong?" Was he always a steroid user? Was his 1984 Rookie of the Year and 1986 Cy Young and MVP Awards tainted as much as his Cy Youngs he won in Toronto (1997-98), the Bronx (2001), and Houston (2004)? His major league total of 354 wins cannot be ignored, nor can his total of more than 4,600 strikeouts. Like Barry Bonds, his career records demand that you talk about him.

Did Clemens go wrong after he left the Red Sox? Boston General Manager Dan Duquette made his infamous quote that Clemens was in the "twilight of his career" when the Sox could not re-sign Clemens. It has been 14 years since the quote and does not look nearly as bad as it was portrayed by the media to be. What's more, Duquette may have been exactly right. 

Clemens's next contract ended up paying Clemens $52.15 million over six years for a per-season average of $8.69 million. Up to Duquette's comment, Clemens had been averaging about $5 million a season over the last few seasons with the Red Sox. One thing is for sure, Duquette only needed to look at the back of Clemens's baseball card to surmise he may have been washed up. Would you offer Clemens 60% more money for the next five years if his last four seasons looked like this?



Down the stretch in his final season in Boston, he tied his own Major League record by striking out 20 Tigers in one game. He led the league in strikeouts in 1996 and strike-shortened 1994 season was solid. But, his 1993 season (4.46 ERA) and his 1995 season (1.436 WHIP) were awful by his standards. Clemens blew up at the Duquette's accusation and looked like it was the main motivating factor to pressing on to his next stop. Toronto, in the same division as Boston, was a perfect place for Clemens to plot his revenge. After two Cy Young seasons in Toronto, he was traded to the Yankees, where he pitched for another five seasons. It was seven seasons of revenge for Clemens within the division against the Red Sox and their fans, who turned against him. Was his career renaissance based on adrenaline and revenge or was it based on something more?


In his 13 seasons with the Red Sox, Clemens had five "great" seasons and three more "good" seasons. Was Clemens a Hall of Famer? At the time, no. He was 192-111 with a 3.06 ERA. Not bad, and his 2,590 strikeouts would garner some votes. At the age of 33, he would have pitched a few more seasons and may have had a slight uptick before the inevitable pre-Steroid Era mid-30s age-induced decline. I am sure you can determine the average decline for a major leaguer and even though Clemens was above-average, how many more wins would he have? 40? 50? Clemens would have stuck around on the ballot for several years, but he would not have made the Hall of Fame.




After Boston, Clemens pitched 11 more seasons following his 33rd birthday. His career numbers with Boston and after Boston show some similarities. The hits he allowed per nine innings stayed about the same, as he allowed 7.6 hits per nine innings in his Boston years and 7.7 hits per nine after he left. His strikeouts per nine went up from 8.4 in Boston to 8.8 in his post-Boston career. Considering the explosion of offensive numbers in the Steroid Era, the fact that Clemens's ERA only went up by 0.15 earned runs per nine innings is suspicious.

All Duquette was saying was Clemens was entering the type of decline that was common for players his age to encounter during the life of that next contract. Adrenaline and revenge are a potent mix, but steroids and HGH have a little more staying power.

Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemero02.shtml

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Kovalchuk's Box

Before Pandora was a planet in Avatar, or a cool iPhone app, it was a box that you did not want to open. The meaning is the same across the board. In Avatar, Pandora was a planet that humans should not have trolled. The iPhone app, like many others, is an addictive time waster. Ilya Kovalchuk’s first Devils contract, rumored to be a 17-year deal worth $102 million, was denied by an arbitrator last week after being challenged by the NHL. Kovalchuk is a free agent again, but the NHL may not be stopping there.

Four other contracts have been rumored to be called into question as Kovalchuk-like contracts, or as Justin Bourne calls them, “Kovalcontracts”. Three of the four “Kovalcontracts” are contract extensions that take effect this upcoming season. These contract extensions belong to the Bruins’ Marc Savard, the Flyers’ Chris Pronger, and the Canucks’ Roberto Luongo. One other contract is already underway: the Blackhawks’ Marian Hossa. These contracts were picked from the litter because of their similar structure, but how alike are they?

First, the structure of the Ilya Kovalchuk’s denied contract that was offered by the Devils:
  • 2010-11 through 2011-12 (2 seasons): $6 million per season
  • 2012-13 through 2016-18 (6 seasons): $11.5 million per season
  • 2018-19 (1 season): $7.5 million
  • 2019-20 (1 season): $6.5 million
  • 2020-21 (1 season): $3.5 million
  • 2021-22 (1 season): $750,000
  • 2022-27 (5 seasons): $550,000
The key issues with this contract is the term, which would expire in 2027 when Kovalchuk was 44 years old, and the precipitous drop-off of dollars during the back-end of the contract. The loophole in the Collective Bargaining Agreement is that if a player retires, the cap hit is removed from the team. With the average salary number constituting the cap hit, back-loading these contracts are a nice way for the team to pay out more money than is counted against the team’s ability to sign players. A provision was put into the CBA to count the cap hit for a retired player if the deal takes effect after the player turns 35 years old. However, for these ultra-long-term deals that take effect before the player turns 35, ultimately eschewing future free agency and causing a marriage between team and player, the loophole exists and it has been exploited by NHL franchises.

If we dissect Kovalchuk’s denied contract, the first year is an “average” year by this contract’s standards, as $6 million is the average of the 17-year/$102 million deal. The number goes up to $11.5 million (+91.7% change from previous season), which would be somewhere near a “max” contract the NHL would allow, which is 20% of the salary cap figure for a season. The salary cap is at $59.4 million for the 2010-11 season and $11.5 million works out to 19.4% of the total cap number. Conceivably, this number may change, as the salary cap is redefined from year to year and the provision may change for the next labor contract, which would take effect no earlier than the 2012-13 season. A drop-off to $7.5 million (-34.8% change from previous season) and $6.5 million in consecutive seasons is not that appalling, considering Kovalchuk would be aged 36 and 37, respectively.

The drop-off between season 11 of the deal is worse, as Kovalchuk’s pay would fall from $6.5 million to $3.5 million in 2020-21 (-46.2% from previous season), almost halving his salary. The final thud in the contract is the following season (2021-22), when the pay falls from the millions to the hundreds of thousands, from $3.5 million to $750,000 (-78.6% from previous season). This was the eye-opener and, more so than the length of the deal, should have caused the NHL to have heart palpitations. If the Devils offered similar dollars throughout the life of the ultra-long-term deal, such as what the Islanders offered goaltender Rick DiPietro, the NHL would most likely not have investigated the legality of the contract. It was the lower amount of money in the final six seasons of the contract that was most responsible for its rejection. With the diminutive salary figures in years 12 through 17 of the contract, there was an overwhelming probability Kovalchuk would retire before playing out the contract, as only a handful of players have still played the game at the highest level at the age of 44.

Also, after 11 years of the deal, 96.6% of the total dollars in the deal were paid out. At that point, the percentage of length of the contract (64.7%) was greatly outpaced by the percentage of total dollars paid by that point in the contract. The difference between the two percentages was 31.9%, which is staggering and defines a “front-loaded” contract. Think of it as a rollercoaster. You start to climb the initial hill, and the higher you go, the more you will have to have to fall quickly at the end of the ride because the start and the end of the ride has to be at the same height. If a player makes the same amount for an entire contract, the rollercoaster is completely level. A perfectly acceptable contract is one where the first couple of years are a little less than average, the middle of the contract is a little more than average, and the last couple of years are a little less than average. This makes for a nice hill in the middle for a very easy-going coaster. Kovalchuk’s contract has a rapid rise and an even more extreme fall.

The NHL drew the line in the sand for these types of contracts, sure to be addressed in the next labor agreement. In the meantime, executives, player agents, and fans can only guess where that line truly is.

For term, let’s draw the line in the sand at 40 years old, beyond which the term would be prohibitively long for the realistic possibility of a player fulfilling the length of the contract, never mind the difficult task in finding someone to insure the guaranteed contract. For dollars, let’s raise the red flag when the drop-off of any year-over-year salary is more than half of the previous season’s salary. For the variance between term and money paid out to that point in the contract, let’s set the variance at 25%, by which if it reaches this number or goes over, we will call it a “front-loaded” contract.

Kovalchuk’s denied contract hits all of these sweet spots: the term concludes when Kovalchuk is 44 years old and season 12 of the 17-year deal caused a 78.6% drop-off. For Kovalchuk, Years 1 and 2 were level and Year 3 started the climb up to Year 10. Year 11 started the downward spiral and Years 12 through 16 represented a free fall. For the five seasons that represent Years 7 through 11 of the deal, the variance between term and money paid out to that point in the contract is over 25%.

Now, to the other four player contracts questioned as a result of the denial of Kovalchuk’s contract:

Marc Savard (Bruins) - 7 years/$28.05 million extension taking effect in 2010-11
  • 2010-11 through 2011-12 (2 seasons): $7 million per season
  • 2012-13 (1 season): $6.5 million
  • 2013-14 (1 season): $5 million
  • 2014-15 (1 season): $1.5 million
  • 2015-16 through 2016-17 (2 seasons): $525,000
  • The line in the sand: Term (39 y.o. at end of deal), Dollars (2014-15 is a 70% drop-off, 2015-16 is a 65% drop-off), Front-Loading (2012-13: 30.2%, 2013-14: 33.8%)
  • Prediction: The drop-offs in this contract is enough cause for this contract to be DENIED. The Bruins are looking to trade him, so if this is denied, it may work out in the Bruins’ favor, who are trying to get under the salary cap.
Chris Pronger (Flyers) – 7 years/$34.45 million extension taking effect in 2010-11
  • 2010-11 through 2011-12 (2 seasons): $7.6 million per season
  • 2012-13 (1 season): $7.2 million
  • 2013-14 (1 season): $7 million
  • 2014-15 (1 season): $4 million
  • 2015-16 through 2016-17 (2 seasons): $525,000
  • The line in the sand: Term (42 y.o. at end of deal), Dollars (2015-16 is a 86.9% drop-off – worse than Kovalchuk), Front-Loading (2013-14: 28.2%)
  • Prediction: The extension was signed before Pronger turned 35, but the extension takes effect around his 36th birthday. So, retirement will not ease the burden of the cap hit, but the drop-off is worse than Kovalchuk, as the final two years of the deal are about one-eighth of the fifth season’s salary. I am predicting this will be DENIED on those grounds.
Roberto Luongo (Canucks) – 12 years/$63.9 million extension taking effect in 2010-11
  • 2010-11 (1 season): $10 million
  • 2011-12 through 2017-18 (7 seasons): $6.7 million per season
  • 2018-19 (1 season): $3.4 million
  • 2019-20 (1 season): $1.6 million
  • 2020-21 through 2021-22 (2 seasons): $1 million per season
  • The line in the sand: Term (43 y.o. at end of deal), Dollars (2019-20 is a 52.9% drop-off), Front-Loading (no seasons above 25%; highest percentage in 2017-18: 22.4%)
  • Prediction: I think this will be APPROVED because though the deal goes until Luongo turns 43, the drop-off is smooth enough to be approved.
Marian Hossa (Blackhawks) – 12 years/$63.3 million new contract starting in 2009-10
  • 2009-10 through 2015-16 (7 seasons): $7.9 million per season
  • 2016-17 (1 season): $4 million
  • 2017-18 through 2020-21 (4 seasons): $1 million per season
  • The line in the sand: Term (39 y.o. at end of deal), Dollars (2014-15 is a 70% drop-off, 2015-16 is a 65% drop-off), Front-Loading (2012-13: 30.2%, 2013-14: 33.8%)
  • Prediction: The drop-off of the dollars is enough to deny the contract. The contract is also excessively front-loaded, which is also grounds for dismissal. But, the biggest sticking point of this or any contract under suspicion is that one year has already been played under this agreement. If they reverse the validity of this contract, the Blackhawks would have played the 2009-10 season with an illegal player for 57 games, in which the Blackhawks earned 77 points (36-16-5), not to mention the 16 wins in 22 games in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. If they deny this, expect fire and brimstone from just about everyone. So, I predict the NHL will figure that “discretion is the better part of valor” and APPROVE the contract.
It is very conceivable that the Marc Savard and Chris Pronger contracts could be overturned.  I think the other two will be upheld.  Roberto Luongo's deal is the lightest offender of the four and Marian Hossa has already played a season under his crazy contract.

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