Showing posts with label Boston Red Sox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boston Red Sox. Show all posts

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Was Dan Duquette Right?

Roger Clemens is back in the news. Federal indictments and the threat of jail time seem to do that. Clemens has been charged with one count of obstruction of Congress, three counts of false statements to Congress, and two counts of perjury. There are six counts in all and each count is a felony, which is punishable by five years each for a grand total of up to 30 years in prison. Clemens and his trusty attorney, Rusty Hardin, have their work cut out for them. The question I keep having is: "Where did Roger Clemens go wrong?" Was he always a steroid user? Was his 1984 Rookie of the Year and 1986 Cy Young and MVP Awards tainted as much as his Cy Youngs he won in Toronto (1997-98), the Bronx (2001), and Houston (2004)? His major league total of 354 wins cannot be ignored, nor can his total of more than 4,600 strikeouts. Like Barry Bonds, his career records demand that you talk about him.

Did Clemens go wrong after he left the Red Sox? Boston General Manager Dan Duquette made his infamous quote that Clemens was in the "twilight of his career" when the Sox could not re-sign Clemens. It has been 14 years since the quote and does not look nearly as bad as it was portrayed by the media to be. What's more, Duquette may have been exactly right. 

Clemens's next contract ended up paying Clemens $52.15 million over six years for a per-season average of $8.69 million. Up to Duquette's comment, Clemens had been averaging about $5 million a season over the last few seasons with the Red Sox. One thing is for sure, Duquette only needed to look at the back of Clemens's baseball card to surmise he may have been washed up. Would you offer Clemens 60% more money for the next five years if his last four seasons looked like this?



Down the stretch in his final season in Boston, he tied his own Major League record by striking out 20 Tigers in one game. He led the league in strikeouts in 1996 and strike-shortened 1994 season was solid. But, his 1993 season (4.46 ERA) and his 1995 season (1.436 WHIP) were awful by his standards. Clemens blew up at the Duquette's accusation and looked like it was the main motivating factor to pressing on to his next stop. Toronto, in the same division as Boston, was a perfect place for Clemens to plot his revenge. After two Cy Young seasons in Toronto, he was traded to the Yankees, where he pitched for another five seasons. It was seven seasons of revenge for Clemens within the division against the Red Sox and their fans, who turned against him. Was his career renaissance based on adrenaline and revenge or was it based on something more?


In his 13 seasons with the Red Sox, Clemens had five "great" seasons and three more "good" seasons. Was Clemens a Hall of Famer? At the time, no. He was 192-111 with a 3.06 ERA. Not bad, and his 2,590 strikeouts would garner some votes. At the age of 33, he would have pitched a few more seasons and may have had a slight uptick before the inevitable pre-Steroid Era mid-30s age-induced decline. I am sure you can determine the average decline for a major leaguer and even though Clemens was above-average, how many more wins would he have? 40? 50? Clemens would have stuck around on the ballot for several years, but he would not have made the Hall of Fame.




After Boston, Clemens pitched 11 more seasons following his 33rd birthday. His career numbers with Boston and after Boston show some similarities. The hits he allowed per nine innings stayed about the same, as he allowed 7.6 hits per nine innings in his Boston years and 7.7 hits per nine after he left. His strikeouts per nine went up from 8.4 in Boston to 8.8 in his post-Boston career. Considering the explosion of offensive numbers in the Steroid Era, the fact that Clemens's ERA only went up by 0.15 earned runs per nine innings is suspicious.

All Duquette was saying was Clemens was entering the type of decline that was common for players his age to encounter during the life of that next contract. Adrenaline and revenge are a potent mix, but steroids and HGH have a little more staying power.

Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemero02.shtml

Friday, August 13, 2010

Have Injuries Taken Their Toll?

There has been a lot of talk about the devastating injuries that have befallen the Red Sox and Phillies. Despite it all, both teams are not only alive, they are well in the chase for their respective Wild Card and division leads. But, how many injuries have they really had through the first four months?

MLB.com compiled a list of man-games lost from injury by each major league team and the results might surprise you. In games through Sunday, August 8th, the Red Sox are not first, second, or third in man-games lost, but their players have lost more time than any of the other local teams. The Red Sox place fourth behind Oakland (909 man-games), Washington (885), and the Los Angeles Angels (686) with 672 man-games lost this year from 18 players. The 18 players that have missed time are second in baseball behind Oakland (20). The amount of players is more concerning because of how pervasive the injury big has bitten the Red Sox this season. Three of their starting staff has spent time on the DL, as only Jon Lester and John Lackey have avoided injured status. The right side of the infield has missed significant time and Kevin Youkilis will make sure the amount of man-games lost will be at least one per game, as he is out for the rest of the season. The one healthy starting outfielder in the early part of the season was the perennially fragile J.D. Drew.

Still, even with all of these injuries, as of Wednesday, the Red Sox (66-49) were five games behind the Yankees (70-43) for not only the American League East lead, but also the best record in baseball. The Sox are 17 games over .500 with players like Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Josh Beckett, and Victor Martinez missing significant time. Of these four, everyone but Pedroia is back and the second baseman may return as soon as this Sunday. Yes, the Red Sox have some injuries, but Youkilis and Mike Cameron are the only current DLers that play pivotal roles on the team.

The Phillies have seemingly have had more injury issues than anyone, but look at MLB.com’s list and the Phillies are only tied for 17th in baseball in man-games lost with 402 games. They have the second-fewest amount of man-games lost per player (23.65), which means that the Phillies have had a lot of players with injuries to make up those 402 games. Philadelphia is tied for third with 17 players, one less than Boston’s 18 players. So, the injuries have been just about as pervasive, but they have not missed nearly as much time as the infirmed Red Sox players. The right side of the Philadelphia infield is currently down in Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. The rest of the infield has had stints on the DL, including Jimmy Rollins, who missed a month of time twice this year. While the top of the Phillies starting rotation has been safe, Jamie Moyer is out for the year and the bullpen has been in shambles with either Brad Lidge or Ryan Madson being out for the first half of the year. But, Chase Utley has been cleared to swing a bat, Ryan Howard is returning next week, and Shane Victorino will return to the lineup on Thursday. Moyer’s elbow injury is the only season-ending injury and the Phillies should be well by September.

The Phillies (63-50), despite these injuries, are only 2½ games out in the National League East and a single game behind San Francisco for the Wild Card. The bullpen is pitching better than they have all year. The team turned a negative with Moyer’s injury to a positive by acquiring Roy Oswalt at the deadline.

The comparison between the two teams shows that while the Phillies have had their share of injuries, the Red Sox have been hit harder by their bumps and bruises and have persevered better through it all. But, the Phillies will most likely be healthier in September and are more poised to make a postseason run because of the division in which they play.

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