Friday, February 19, 2010

Sports With The StatMan #47: Show Notes

Timeline
00:00-10:30 – Open: Olympic Hockey is ramping up
10:30-29:00 – The three magic words we long to hear: Pitchers and Catchers
29:00-63:30 – 2009 NFL Season In Review
63:30-78:30 – 2010 MLB Preview: American League West
78:30-81:30 – Close: Next Week and Upcoming Schedule

Main Points
00:00-10:30 – Open: Olympic Hockey is ramping up
We got on the air just as Canada was defeating Switzerland in the shootout in their preliminary round game, 3-2.  We talk about the preliminary round thus far, the strength shown by the Canadians and the Americans, and which teams might squeak into the quarterfinals.

10:30-29:00 – The three magic words we long to hear: Pitchers and Catchers
The rite of Spring is here and teams are starting to file down to Florida and Arizona to start Spring Training.  The team that needs the most practice on fundamentals is the Mets and they report to Florida last out of all of the local teams.  A bad decision, to be sure, but you are seeing that several Mets are already down there voluntarily.  David Wright and Johan Santana are starting to talk it up, too.  Is this the start of a new page in Met history or is this more of the same?  You’ll remember Carlos Beltran pegged the Mets as the team to beat in the National League East before the 2008 season and that did not work for the Mets.  This time, jobs are on the line for the GM and the Manager.

The main questions for each local camp.  What will 2010 bring for these teams?
Mets: Question marks about the starting rotation after Johan Santana
Yankees: Moving on without Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui and the battle for the 5th spot in the rotation
Phillies: Doc Halladay replaces Cliff Lee atop the rotation, but Cole Hamels has to be better than he was last year
Red Sox: Mike Lowell is still on the team, but where will he end up?

29:00-63:30 – 2009 NFL Season In Review
Top 10 findings of our pre-season predictions
10. Overall: Pre-season game-by-game picks: 148-108 (.578); Picking every game week-by-week: 177-79 (.691) (+29)
9. Playoffs: picked PHL to lose in WC round
8. Picked ARZ-GBY playoff matchup
7. Biggest misses: CIN (+7), NO (+6, wins SB)
6. NFC: Picked 4 of 6 playoff teams (missed DAL, NO), 3 exact seeds (ARZ 4th, GBY 5th, PHL 6th)
5. AFC: Picked 4 of 6 playoff teams (missed NYJ, CIN), 1 exact seed (BAL 6th)
4. Picked very poorly for NE (-3), NYJ (+3), NYG (-3); close on PHL (+1)
3. Picked within 1 game of exact won-lost record for 13 teams
2. Picked 4 teams correctly on won-lost record (BUF, CLE, DEN, ATL)
1. Right on Colts getting to Super Bowl (wrong in picking them as WC and to win SB)

We also revisited each NFL team’s Big Question we asked in August, what those answers were, and proposed an Offseason Question for each of the 32 teams.  Find your team in the podcast, as I went division-by-division, starting with the AFC East and ending with the NFC West.

63:30-78:30 – 2010 MLB Preview: American League West
The opening installment of our baseball preview started this week with a look at the American League West.  We reviewed the comings and goings for each team, broke down what each team has on the field, and made a prediction for finish in the division and an over/under pick on wins.  Here are the predictions:

(listed in order of last season’s finish)
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2009: 97-65; 2010: O/U 87.5 wins) – Prediction: 1st, Over 87.5 (92-70)
2. Texas Rangers (2009: 87-75, 10 GB; 2010: O/U 77.5 wins) – Prediction: 3rd, Over 77.5 (85-77)
3. Seattle Mariners (2009: 85-77, 12 GB; 2010: O/U 79.5 wins) – Prediction: 2nd, Over 79.5 (90-70)
4. Oakland Athletics (2009: 75-87, 22 GB; 2010: O/U 81.5 wins) – Prediction: 4th, Under 81.5 (72-90)

78:30-81:30 – Close: Next Week’s Show Preview, Upcoming Schedule
Next Week
We will return to our regular spot on Sunday night at 8pm Eastern time.  On the show (#48), we will wrap up our Olympic hockey talk, as the Gold Medal Game will be earlier in the day.  We will also prepare for the return of the NHL on March 1st.  Also, we’ll break down another baseball division.  Next week, we’ll break down the National League West.

Upcoming Schedule
• By Saturday: “Random Musings” Sports Column (blog)
• On Sunday: Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Hockey Edition – Week 20 (blog)
• Sunday, February 28th, 8-9pm ET: Sports With The StatMan: No. 48 (live show)

* All blogs will be available on our “secondary” blog, which is called “Random Musings from the StatMan” (http://gstatman.blogspot.com). You can listen to the show live at our show page (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan) or download the podcast, which is normally available 15 minutes after the show, either from the show page or from iTunes (search: Sports With The StatMan).

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:
• Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
• Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
• “Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com

Send your pro or fantasy questions or comments on the Show Page or the “Random Musings” blog, or you can send me a tweet. I’ll be sure to get back to you. Also, check the show page for times and schedules of our one-hour show and our latest blog entries, such as our Fantasy Hockey Edition and our Random Musings weekly sports column.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Hockey Edition - Week 19

For the Games of February 7th-14th, 2010

Washington is on one of the best winning streaks of all-time.  As of Saturday night, the Capitals have won 13 in a row.  The all-time record is the 17-game winning streak posted by the Pittsburgh Penguins in 1993.  Washington has four games before the Olympic Break, hosting Pittsburgh and traveling to Montreal, Ottawa, and St. Louis.  The hallmark of the winning streak has been scoring.  Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom earned the first and second star among forwards and Tom Poti was the top-ranked defenseman in the NHL last week.

WEEK 18 REVIEW (Games of 1/31-2/6/2010)
THREE STARS
Forwards
-         1st Star: Alex Ovechkin WSH – 33.5 points (5-3-8 in 4 games, +4, 2 PIM, 2 PPG)
-         2nd Star: Nicklas Backstrom WSH – 33.5 points (3-7-10 in 4 games, +5, 6 PIM, 2 PPG)
-         3rd Star: Marian Gaborik NYR – 30.5 points (5-2-7 in 4 games, +4, 4 PIM, 1 PPG)

Local Forwards
-         1st Star: Marian Gaborik NYR – 30.5 points (#3 Forward overall)
-         2nd Star: Vinny Prospal NYR – 19 points (Tied-#12 F overall, 2-4-6 in 4 games, +2, 2 PIM, 1 PPG)
-         3rd Star: Ryan Callahan NYR – 14 points (Tied-#22 F overall, 2-2-4 in 4 games, -1, 2 PIM, 1 PPG)

Defensemen
-         1st Star: Tom Poti WSH – 27 points (1-3-4 in 4 games, +5, 1 PPG)
-         2nd Star: Jack Johnson LAK – 24.5 points (1-4-5 in 4 games, +2, 2 PIM)
-         3rd Star: Brian Rafalski DET – 20.5 points (0-4-4 in 4 games, +2)

Local Defensemen
-         1st Star: Marc Staal NYR – 14 points (Tied-#15 Defenseman overall, 0-3-3 in 4 games, +1)
-         2nd Star: Michael Del Zotto NYR – 9 points (Tied-#28 D overall, 0-2-2 in 4 games, +1, 4 PIM)
-         3rd Star: Matt Gilroy NYR – 8.5 points (Tied-#31 D overall, 0-2-2 in 4 games)

Goaltenders
-         1st Star: Jean-Sebastien Giguere TOR – 30 points (2-0-0 in 2 games, 2 SO, 0.00 GAA, 60 SV, 1.000 SvPct)
-         2nd Star: Jeff Deslauriers EDM – 27.4 points (2-2-0 in 4 games, 1 SO, 2.02 GAA, 137 SV, .945 SvPct)
-         3rd Star: Marty Turco DAL – 26.6 points (2-1-0 in 3 games, 1 SO, 1.01 GAA, 98 SV, .970 SvPct)

Local Goaltenders
-         1st Star: Ray Emery PHL – 12.6 points (#17 Goalie overall, 1-0-0 in 1 game, 1 SO, 0.00 GAA, 18 SV, 1.000 SvPct)
-         2nd Star: Henrik Lundqvist NYR – 10.7 points (#21 G overall, 1-2-0 in 3 games, 3.03 GAA, 86 SV, .905 SvPct)
-         3rd Star: Chad Johnson NYR – 8.8 points (Tied-#24 G overall, 1-0-0 in 1 game, 1.00 GAA, 34 SV, .971 SvPct)

Special Teams
-         Best in League: Atlanta Thrashers/Calgary/Los Angeles/Pittsburgh +9 points each
-         Best among locals: New York Rangers +5 (#7 ST overall, 5-18 PP, 20-23 PK, 0 SHG, 1 SHGA)

WEEK 19 PREVIEW (Games of 2/7-2/14/2010)
SCHEDULE
4-Game Weeks:
- Sunday-to-Saturday scoring period (17): Anaheim, Boston, Colorado, Edmonton, Montreal, New Jersey, Nashville, N.Y. Islanders, Ottawa, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, San Jose, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Vancouver, Washington
- Monday-to-Sunday scoring period (13): Anaheim, Colorado, Edmonton, New Jersey, Nashville, N.Y. Islanders, Ottawa, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Jose, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Vancouver

2-Game Weeks:
- Sunday-to-Saturday scoring period (1): Toronto
- Monday-to-Sunday scoring period (1): Toronto

Local Matchups:
- Devils at Flyers (Monday), Flyers at Devils (Wednesday)

START ‘EM and SIT ‘EM
Last Week (Start vs. Sit)
- Forwards: Mike Knuble WSH (2-2-4 in 4 games, +6, 2 PIM) vs. Ryan Kesler VAN (1-1-2 in 3 games, -2, 2 PIM, 1 PPG) (W, Knuble 17.5, Kesler 4.0)
- Defensemen: Ian White CGY (0-1-1 in 4 games, +1, 2 PIM) vs. Zdeno Chara BOS (1-0-1 in 3 games, -2, 2 PIM, 1 PPG) (W, White 5.5, Chara 0.0)
- Goaltending: Jonathan Quick LAK (4-0-0 in 4 games, 2.50 GAA, 84 SV, .894 SvPct) vs. Brian Elliott OTT (2-1-0 in 3 games, 2.62 GAA, 89 SV, .927 SvPct) (W, Quick 18.8, Elliott 14.8)

Season: 11-4 (3-0 last week)

Forwards
- Start: James Neal DAL – In the first few weeks of the season, Neal was a solid performer with three double-digit weeks in his first four.  In the next 11 weeks, Neal had one double-digit week, went through a slump, a suspension, and a groin injury.  Since, he has put up two double-digit weeks in the last three and looks like his early-season self.
- Sit: Ryan Malone TBY – Malone has been in a bad way lately.  I mean, really bad.  Since a 23-point week in Week 12, Malone has scored -3 fantasy points.  How he is starting in any fantasy league is beyond me.  Why is he still on my fantasy roster?  Since December 21st, where he had two goals and two assists against the Islanders, Malone is 3-3-6 in 21 games and is playing at a minus-12.

Defensemen
- Start: Mark Giordano CGY – Giordano may be the NHL’s best-kept secret.  Don’t look now, but two goals in his last two games give him 10 markers on the season.  Only five defensemen have more.
- Sit: Christian Ehrhoff VAN – Ehrhoff has not put points up lately and even though he has a plus-22 rating this season, he is a minus-3 in his last 3 games and the Canucks are going to be on the road for a while.  Ehrhoff is a +21 in 31 home games and +3 in 27 road contests this year.

Goaltending
- Start: Michael Leighton PHL – Ray Emery is hurt again and may be out for a while.  Leighton was good when the Flyers really needed him and there is no reason to think he will let them down this time.
- Sit: Jose Theodore WSH – Theodore and the Caps goaltending is the only facet of their game that is not firing on all cylinders right now.  Also, Semyon Varlamov is getting healthy, so Theodore’s days of being the starter may be numbered.

Upcoming Schedule
Show Notes blog (#45)
“Random Musings” sports column
Sunday 10-11pm ET: Sports With The StatMan (#46)
Fantasy Hockey Edition – Week 20

* All blogs will be available on our “secondary” blog, which is called “Random Musings from the StatMan” (http://gstatman.blogspot.com). You can listen to the show live at our show page (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan) or download the podcast, which is normally available 15 minutes after the show, either from the show page or from iTunes (search: Sports With The StatMan).

Here are the ways to follow along with the blogs and also find the show:
• Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
• Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
• “Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
• iTunes: search for “Sports With The StatMan”

Send your pro or fantasy questions or comments on the Show Page or the “Random Musings” blog, or you can send me a tweet. I’ll be sure to get back to you. Also, check the show page for times and schedules of our one-hour show and our last blog entries, such as our Fantasy Hockey Edition and our Random Musings weekly sports column.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition - Super Bowl XLIV

The Super Bowl has already happened, but I did write down my Super Bowl pick before the game, as well as predictions on which quarterback, running back, and wide receiver would have the bigger game.  The Colts and Saints were the two best teams in the league.  They had the longest undefeated strings to start the season.  They had the best quarterbacks in football this year.  Their defenses were underrated.  But, there were some differences.  New Orleans had the better running game.  Saint coach Sean Payton is a disciple of hard-nosed Bill Parcells while Colt neophyte Jim Caldwell took over this year for the gentle Tony Dungy.

Before we talk about the Super Bowl, let’s back up one week.  The AFC and NFC title games were played and the only team without a bye week who was still in the tournament was the New York Jets.  But, the Jets run was over in a rematch with the Colts.  The Saints reached their first Super Bowl in their 43-year history with an overtime victory over Brett Favre and the Vikings.  Here are the top fantasy performances from the Conference Championship games:

Conference Championship Round Top Fantasy Performers
Quarterback
 1. Peyton Manning IND – 31 points (26-for-39, 377 yards, 3 TD (16,4,15), 0 INT, 1 rush for 0 yards)
 2. Drew Brees NO – 23 points (17-for-31, 197 yards, 3 TD (38,9,5), 0 INT, 1 rush for 0 yards)
 3. Mark Sanchez NYJ – 22 points (17-for-30, 257 yards, 2 TD (80,9), 1 INT, 2 rushes for 1 yard)

Running Back
 1. Adrian Peterson MIN – 27 points (25 rushes for 122 yards, 3 TD (19,1,2), 2 catches for 14 yards)
 2. Pierre Thomas NO – 23 points (14 rushes for 61 yards, 1 TD (9), 2 catches for 38 yards, 1 rec TD (38))
T3. Joseph Addai IND – 8 points (16 rushes for 80 yards, 1 catch for 13 yards, 1 fumble lost)
T3. Reggie Bush NO – 8 points (7 rushes for 8 yards, 2 catches for 33 yards, 1 rec TD (5), 1 fumble lost)

Wide Receiver
 1. Braylon Edwards NYJ – 20 points (2 catches for 100 yards, 1 TD (80))
 2. Pierre Garcon IND – 19 points (11 catches for 151 yards, 1 TD (4))
 3. Austin Collie IND – 18 points (7 catches for 123 yards, 1 TD (16))

Tight End
 1. Dustin Keller NYJ – 16 points (6 catches for 63 yards, 1 TD (9))
 2. Dallas Clark IND – 13 points (4 catches for 35 yards, 1 TD (15))
 3. Visanthe Shiancoe MIN – 12 points (4 catches for 83 yards)

Kicker
 1. Matt Stover IND – 12 points (3-for-3 in field goals (25,19,21), 3-for-3 in extra points)
 2. Garrett Hartley NO – 9 points (1-for-1 in field goals (40), 4-for-4 in extra points)
 3. Jay Feely NYJ – 7 points (1-for-3 in field goals (48), 2-for-2 in extra points)

Defense/Special Team
 1. Saints NO – 5 points (2 INT, 3 fumble recoveries, 28 points allowed)
T2. Colts IND – 3 points (1 INT, 17 points allowed)
T2. Jets NYJ – 3 points (2 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 30 points allowed)

Conference Championship Round Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em Results (1-2)
QB: Drew Brees NO (start) vs. Peyton Manning IND (sit) – (L, Manning 31, Brees 23)
RB: Shonn Greene NYJ (start) vs. Reggie Bush NO (sit) – (L, Bush 8, Greene 4)
WR: Devery Henderson NO (start) vs. Reggie Wayne IND (sit) – (W, Henderson 7, Wayne 5)

SUPER BOWL XLIV
Sunday 6:30pm – New Orleans vs. Indianapolis (-5)

Super Bowl pick
NO-IND: Colts 40, Saints 30 (Colts win and cover)
The Colts managed to put up 30 points against the Jets while using two rookies as their main receivers.  Pierre Garcon set an AFC Championship Game record with 11 catches and Garcon and Austin Collie both caught touchdowns from Peyton Manning.  The Saints do not have the shutdown corner the Jets have in Darrelle Revis so Reggie Wayne will be in play more in the Super Bowl than last game.  The Colts defense has been much better than advertised against the run and the Saints have a deceptively good running game with Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush.  The Saints defense will try to blitz, but RB Joseph Addai is good at picking it up.  This should give Peyton Manning more time to make plays downfield.

For the Saints to win, Reggie Bush has to get involved, injured Colts DE Dwight Freeney has to be kept at bay, and they have to fool the Colts defense with different looks.  The Saints are great on screen passes and this could help keep the Colts defense on their heels.  The Colts defense is quick, but the Saints offensive players are quick, too, including their wide receivers, who can run as well as receive.

Game Result: Saints 31, Colts 17 (Saints won and covered)
The Saints won the game with the unbelievably efficient play of Drew Brees.  Brees tied Tom Brady for the Super Bowl record in completions in a game with 32.  Though Brees only averaged 9 yards per completion for 288 yards, Brees dinked and dunked his way to an 82% completion percentage.  Brees outplayed Peyton Manning and won MVP honors.  The play calling was solid, culminating in a screen pass to Pierre Thomas, who scored from 16 yards out.  Former Giant TE Jeremy Shockey caught the go-ahead touchdown with under 6 minutes left in the fourth quarter.  

But, almost as impressive as Brees was the Saints defense.  Gregg Williams had his defense give Manning fits, changing looks and even alignments, switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3.  The only turnover in the game sealed the victory for the Saints.  Manning tried to reach Reggie Wayne, who had a disappointing game.  Malcolm Jenkins jumped the route and intercepted Manning's pass 74 yards for a touchdown for the icing on the cake.

Super Bowl Start 'Em/Sit 'Em
QB: Drew Brees NO (start) vs. Peyton Manning IND (sit)
I am a glutton for punishment.  I gave you the same Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em last week at quarterback and Manning had the better day, 31-23.  But, I think Brees will be passing from behind and will get more yards.  Otherwise, the statistics may be pretty even for these two stars.

RB: Pierre Thomas NO (start) vs. Joseph Addai IND (sit)
Thomas is a double threat in that he can run and receive.  Thomas caught a pivotal screen pass against the Vikings for a touchdown and found the end zone with some great individual moves when it would have been easier to go out of bounds.  Addai plays in an offense that does not feature the run and he is more of a runner than a receiver.  Thomas wins this one on versatility.

WR: Reggie Wayne IND (start) vs. Marques Colston NO (sit)
Wayne will be liberated by not having to go up against Darrelle Revis.  Wayne only had three catches for 55 yards against Revis and the Jets.  This week, he has a better opportunity to go for big yards and a score.  Colston is the most dependable receiver for the Saints and he gets there on volume.  I am looking for the Colts to keep his catches to manageable gains without allowing him to break one.

Super Bowl Top Fantasy Performers
Quarterback
 1. Drew Brees NO – 23 points (32-for-39, 288 yards, 2 TD (16,2), 0 INT, 1 rush for -1 yard)
 2. Peyton Manning IND – 17 points (31-for-45, 333 yards, 1 TD (19), 1 INT)

Running Back
T1. Joseph Addai IND – 16 points (13 rushes for 77 yards, 1 TD (4), 7 catches for 58 yards)
T1. Pierre Thomas NO – 16 points (9 rushes for 30 yards, 6 catches for 55 yards, 1 rec TD (16))
 3. Reggie Bush NO – 5 points (5 rushes for 25 yards, 4 catches for 38 yards)

Wide Receiver
 1. Pierre Garcon IND – 12 points (5 catches for 66 yards, 1 TD (19))
 2. Marques Colston NO – 8 points (7 catches for 83 yards)
T3. Austin Collie IND – 6 points (6 catches for 66 yards)
T3. Devery Henderson NO – 6 points (7 catches for 63 yards)

Tight End
 1. Dallas Clark IND – 15 points (7 catches for 86 yards)
 2. Jeremy Shockey NO – 8 points (3 catches for 13 yards, 1 TD (2))

Kicker
 1. Garrett Hartley NO – 17 points (3-for-3 in field goals (46,44,47), 2-for-2 in extra points)
 2. Matt Stover IND – 6 points (1-for-2 in field goals (38), 2-for-2 in extra points)

Defense/Special Team
 1. Saints NO – 8 points (1 INT, 1 INT-TD (74), 17 points allowed)
 2. Colts IND – 1 point (1 sack, 31 points allowed)

Super Bowl Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em Results (1-1-1)
QB: Drew Brees NO (start) vs. Peyton Manning IND (sit) – (W, Brees 23, Manning 17)
RB: Pierre Thomas NO (start) vs. Joseph Addai IND (sit) – (T, Thomas 16, Addai 16)
WR: Reggie Wayne IND (start) vs. Marques Colston NO (sit) – (L, Colston 8, Wayne 4)

Final Playoff Pick Standings
Straight Up: 7-4, AFC Champ: IND (W), NFC Champ: NO (W), Super Bowl: IND (L)
Against The Spread: 5-6, AFC Champ: NYJ (L), NFC Champ: NO (L), Super Bowl: IND (L)
Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em: 4-7-1 (Starts: 100 points, Sits: 113 points)

Upcoming Blog Schedule and Next Show
Our next blog posts will be:
• Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Hockey Edition – Week 19
• Show Notes #45
• Random Musings weekly sports column

Join us for our next installment of “Sports With The StatMan” on Sunday, February 14th, at a special time, 10pm ET.  We’ll chat for an hour on hockey, football, and a little baseball.  In hockey, we’ll have an Olympic Preview and break down the week for our local teams.  We’ll our 2009 NFL Season In Review to put a capper on the football season.  And, as always, what would an offseason show be without the Hot Stove.  All of this and more on a special Valentine’s Day edition of “Sports With The StatMan” on Sunday from 10-11pm Eastern.

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:
• Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
• Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
• “Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
• iTunes: search for “Sports With The StatMan”

Sunday, February 7, 2010

Random Musings: Met Indecision

Darryl Strawberry was interviewed by Matthew Cerrone at Metsblog.com this past week.  Later in the week, Cliff Floyd was on Mike Francesca’s show on WFAN.  They come from different Met eras and different times of Met success.  Strawberry was the premier power hitter on the great Met teams of the 1980s.  Floyd was one of the power sources for the Mets of the middle part of this past decade.  Both have seen New York when the Mets win.  They understand what makes Met fans go crazy.  Confidence.  Swagger.  Cockiness.

Strawberry was there for one of the two greatest moments in franchise history: Game 6 of the 1986 World Series.  Floyd almost reached a World Series in 2006, but was there for one of the greatest single plays in team history: the Endy Chavez over-the-wall catch.

In his notes on the interview, Cerrone said if the current downward trend for the Mets continues, the situation may become irreparable.  I might disagree with Cerrone on whether that has already happened.  I believe this situation may already be irreparable.  Let's look at the low points this franchise has had since that Endy Chavez miracle catch.

·       2006: Carlos Beltran strikes out looking to end Game 7 of NLCS
·       2007: Mets do not re-sign Floyd
·       2007: Mets have historic collapse in the East, allowing the Phillies to take the division on the last day
·       2008: Mets do not re-sign Paul Lo Duca
·       2008: Willie Randolph fired at the beginning of a West Coast trip
·       2008: Mets collapse again, dropping a division lead and allowing the Brewers to take the Wild Card on the last day
·       2009: Bad signing of Perez
·       2009: Bad trade for Putz
·       2009: Injuries affect every part of the Met roster
·       2009: Keystone Cop-like operation of the franchise

It has already deteriorated quickly.  This franchise, as it is currently constituted, may already have its best days behind them.  This latest round of incompetence stems from the players' health.  If they were healthy, there would be no mistrust with the medical staff.  But, they were hurt, and the medical staff, front office, and ownership botched it beyond belief.  Now, there is no trust in the medical staff. 

Beltran sought a second opinion, which happens all of the time, but right after getting that second opinion, he went under the knife.  That shows little trust in Minaya or that shows that he knew the front office and ownership would try to talk him out of it.  Beltran is not the only with little trust in Minaya having any kind of autonomy in the front office without the meddling of ownership.  Jose Reyes did not seem all that happy with the rehabilitation course, as the Mets opted to rehab his leg injury instead of opting for surgery.  Did Johan Santana pitch too long without having surgery on his elbow and jeopardize himself to a more severe injury?

This irreparable damage has not been the results of bad trades or players walking away for more money elsewhere.  Omar Minaya and the Mets re-signed people I did not think they should have re-signed in Carlos Delgado and Oliver Perez, did not re-sign players I thought they should have kept in Paul Lo Duca, fired people that should not have been fired in Willie Randolph, and kept people on that should have been shown the door, such as the medical staff and now Omar Minaya himself.

Save for the Johan Santana trade that fell into their laps, the Mets are seemingly doing the exact opposite of what they should have been doing.  The Mets should not have had to rely on Gary Sheffield or Daniel Murphy for long stretches last year.  Even though the Mets injured list read like a phone book, Sheffield and Murphy were supposed to be in the lineup most of the time when the season started.  The Mets did not have a solid second starter behind Johan Santana entering 2008, let alone last season.  To date, they still do not have that second starter. 

The Mets fixed their left field situation in the offseason by signing Jason Bay, but they could have signed the right player last season.  Does Minaya learn from the 2009 injuries?  Already, you can tell he is not planning well for possible failure at first base if Murphy and Tatis do not hit well enough.  They are still paying for a bad contract to Castillo, which stopped them from signing Orlando Hudson, who has a much better glove and could be a better fit in the lineup. 

Yes, Santana might not have agreed to the trade that sent him from Minnesota to Queens if Castillo was not already a Met, but by now, Santana is a Met and Castillo could be benched, released, or traded with the Mets eating a large portion of the contract.  Met upper management is treating the 4-year/$24 million contract like a 6-year/$100 million contract by the way they are unwilling to eat some or all of the remaining money.  Look at the Los Angeles Angels.  They ate $21.5 million of the remaining $23.5 million of Gary Matthews, Jr.’s contract to ship him off to the Mets.

Quite frankly, I am surprised the Mets have not traded away Reyes, David Wright, or Beltran at this point because that would be the opposite of good management.  At least they have had enough sense to hold on to them.  But, that has given the Met fans just enough hope to hold off on pushing the button that blows everything up and starts over again.

As I write this, not only did Ryan Garko sign with Seattle, who is trying to win now, but Kevin Millar just signed a minor-league deal.  Millar might have only hit .223 and had 4 errors in 46 games at 1B, but he has grit and fire in spades and he would prove a workable platoon player while the Mets bide their time for Ike Davis to arrive.  Millar knows how to win.  Maybe he could have taught the Mets.

Sports With The StatMan #44: Show Notes

Before we get to the timeline, take a look at last week’s Random Musings sports column, “Building Something”.

Timeline
00:00-12:00 – Open: The month of February, the Super Bowl bye week, and why hockey needs a big Olympics
12:00-18:30 – Show information and February schedule
18:30-27:00 NFC Conference Championship wrap, Thoughts on Favre’s next career move
27:00-40:00 NHL: Local Matchups, Rangers talk, Islanders talk
40:00-56:00 NHL: Flyer talk, Leafs dealing, Bruins are ice cold, Devils talk
56:00-68:00 NHL: Goalies for Sale, NHL Standings and Playoff Races
68:00-76:00 MLB: Mets let free agents pitchers them by
76:00-78:00 – Close: Next Week’s Show Preview, Upcoming Schedule

Main Points
00:00-12:00 – Open: The month of February, the Super Bowl bye week, and why hockey needs a big Olympics
I’ve never been a big fan of the bye week between the Conference Championship games and the Super Bowl.  We lose our momentum for football.  There are two weeks to break down the big game.  The Colts can stop the run and the Saints’ blitz will be figured out by Colt QB Peyton Manning.  The Colts are favored by a little more than a field goal, but there is another week to talk about the game.

February is the time between the Super Bowl and Spring Training.  February is a chance for hockey to gain notoriety and while there is less NHL action in February than usual, the Olympics are this month.  They need a great Olympics to help get hockey back into the national consciousness.  They need impact trades and there were two today.  The Maple Leafs sent scoring away (Niclas Hagman, Matt Stajan, Jason Blake) and brought back defense (Dion Phaneuf) and goaltending (Jean-Sebastien Giguere).  There are still deals to be made and it will be a fun February for hockey.

Also:
-         What is going on with the Bruins and Rangers?
-         What are the Mets doing?  I wonder if they know at this point.

12:00-18:30 Show information and February schedule
February Schedule for “Sports With The StatMan”
Sunday, February 7th, 10am-11am ET: Super Bowl predictions
Sunday, February 14th, 10pm-11pm ET: Olympic Hockey Preview, NFL Season In Review
Thursday, February 18th, 10pm-11pm ET: Olympic Hockey talk, 2010 AL West Preview
Sunday, February 28th, 8pm-9pm ET: Olympic Hockey wrap, 2010 NL West Preview

18:30-27:00 NFC Conference Championship wrap, Thoughts on Favre’s next career move
The Saints defeated the Vikings in overtime, 31-28, on a Garrett Hartley 40-yard field goal.  The Saints won the coin flip, marched down the field, thanks in part to two first downs by penalty, and Hartley booted the first down.  There was a very questionable pass interference call on Ben Leber that gave the Saints their final first down.  But, the Vikings have only themselves to blame.  Brett Favre could have run a few yards to set up a field goal with 19 seconds left.  He could’ve thrown it out of bounds.  But, Favre threw an interception and his season ended on the interception.  He never played another down.  This is not the first time this has happened.  But, Favre is a gunslinger and this is who he is.

Will Favre return?  I don’t think he would go out like that, but I don’t think he will make the decision on retirement any time soon because the wound is too fresh.  When he makes his decision will determine how much I will believe him.  I’ll believe him if he is still retired on Labor Day.  But, he could still pull a Pedro Martinez and join a team during the season next year.  He is definitely an original.  If he won the Super Bowl, you would have to include him in the conversation with the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

The Saints used their blitzing defense to beat Favre up, but they will not have as much success with that blitz against Peyton Manning in the Super Bowl.  The Saints also do not have the shutdown corner that the Jets have, so Reggie Wayne will be active in the passing game.  Hartley’s game-winning field goal means that Hartley, who started the season on a four-game suspension for using a banned substance, and who was not the regular kicker for most of the season, will end his season in the Super Bowl.

The Saints have not been to a Super Bowl since entering the league in 1967.  This Super Bowl is really all about New Orleans.  Manning grew up in New Orleans.  Manning’s father, Archie, was a Saints hero in New Orleans.

27:00-40:00 NHL: Local Matchups, Rangers talk, Islanders talk
• The Islanders lost to the Flyers on Saturday afternoon, 2-1, in the only local matchup this week.
• The Devils and Rangers meet at Madison Square Garden on Saturday night in a rematch from the regular-season classic game in their last meeting, a 1-0 shootout win for the Devils.

Rangers
The Rangers could really use a win right now.  They are in a bad way.  Since the two-game 14-goal outburst against Montreal and Tampa Bay, they have been outscored 20-5 in five games in dropping all five games.  Goalie Henrik Lundqvist has been hung out to dry and the victim of no goal support. 

Coach John Tortorella has nowhere else to go after going to the whip earlier in the season.  He has resorted to starting a war of words with New York Post reporter Larry Brooks.  When a team stops listening to their coach, the coach is done.  Just look at the Islanders and Peter Laviolette in 2003.  The team tuned him out and he was soon fired.  He won the Stanley Cup in Carolina 3 years later and he is now at the helm of a Flyers team that is playing very well.  Eric Mangini got another year in Cleveland because the players responded to his possible firing with four straight wins to end the season.

The Rangers have lost five in a row and close the week at home against the top two teams in the Eastern Conference in Washington and New Jersey.  They have to win one of the first two games this week against Colorado and Los Angeles.

Islanders
The Islanders will get some rest during the Olympic break, which is more than most teams.  That may be the only thing that will help them.  The Islanders are wasting a golden opportunity to get into playoff position.  The logjam between 6th and 13th place in the Eastern Conference is starting to spread out and the Islanders are sinking to bottom of that group.  The goaltending is as muddled as over.  Martin Biron is far away from the Coliseum and Dwayne Roloson has not been the same since Rick DiPietro has not been the same.  Roloson thrives on workload and knowing that DiPietro is going to take half his starts, even though he knew this would happen, has hurt his confidence.

Jack Hillen has had a good year as an up-and-coming defenseman for the Islanders and he was hit in the jaw by an Alex Ovechkin slapshot in the 7-2 loss on Tuesday night to the Capitals.  Hillen will be out 6-8 weeks with a fractured jaw.  Andrew MacDonald is another up-and-coming defenseman for the Islanders.  MacDonald is on his way to being the Hillen of last season.

The Islanders have had a tough run lately, but this is what they signed up for.  They are going to win games they are supposed to lose and lose games they are supposed to win.  It is all part of the growing process for the young team.  In the latest “Random Musings” sports column, called “Building Something”, draws some parallels between the Islanders and Jets.

40:00-56:00 NHL: Flyer talk, Leafs dealing, Bruins are ice cold, Devils talk
Flyers
The Flyers continue to score first, now 16 of 18 games where the Flyers have had the early lead.  Coach Peter Laviolette juggled his lines, and it resulted in the first goal against the Islanders in the their 2-1 win on Saturday.  The Flyers defeated the Islanders for the 14th straight time, which equates to more than two years.  Did the line juggling work because the team bought into it or just because they were playing a team they have handled so well?

In the next week, the Flyers will go on a Western Canada trip, but they could not have better timing.  The Oilers are the worst team in the league.  The Flames just lost one of their best players in Dion Phaneuf.  Did Phaneuf have issues in the locker room?  How the Flames come out after the trade will explain a lot.

Speaking of Phaneuf, the Leafs made two nice deals in picking up the solid defenseman and Jean-Sebastien Giguere, who has a chance to rejuvenate his career.  Giguere is a Cup winner for the Ducks in 2007 and won the Conn Smythe Award on the losing Ducks team against the Devils in 2003.  Phaneuf will add some impact to the blueline, adding more physical play to an already-physical back line with Mike Komisarek, Francois Beauchemin, and Luke Schenn.  Jason Blake, who was a big part of the Giguere trade, never fit in with the Leafs.  He signed the big contract and never reached the same level he was at with the Islanders.  Blake will be back in Southern California where he started his NHL career, when he was with the Kings.  Giguere is a lot better than Vesa Toskala, who was shipped to Anaheim with Blake.  Toskala was a much maligned player for the Leafs.  So, the Leafs are going to do well after this trade. 

Bruins
The team is now healthy, as only Andrew Ference is on Injured Reserve.  But, the wheels are still falling off.  The Bruins have not won since their California trip.  In the last game of the California trip, the Bruins lost to the Kings in a shootout.  Including that game and the six games since, the Bruins are 0-5-2 and have been outscored 23-11.  The Bruins have not won at home in almost a month (January 5th vs. Ottawa), currently holding a six-game home losing streak.  They have three home games this week, but it is against scalding Washington, rival Montreal, and sizzling Vancouver.  A big week would get them back into playoff position, but they are holding their breath and trying not to fall any farther.

Devils
The Devils were shutout and lost in a shootout earlier in the week, but they had a big OT win on a Travis Zajac goal.  In that game, Jamie Langenbrunner was taken off the same line as Zach Parise and Travis Zajac and Dainius Zubrus joined them.  The line combined for four of the five goals in that 5-4 OT victory.  Could this line (Killer Z’s? Nytol Line?) stick around for a while?

The Devils will face Toronto twice in the next week, so they will see first-hand the effect of the new recruits for the Leafs.

56:00-68:00 NHL: Goalies for Sale, NHL Standings and Playoff Races
Where will the other goaltenders go?  Marty Turco and Martin Biron are out there.  The Flyers no longer need a goaltender, as Ray Emery is back from injury and Michael Leighton has proven to be a very good backup.  Who needs a backup or who needs some short-term help?  Goaltending around the league is pretty stable.  Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Washington have had injuries or ineffectiveness from incumbent goaltenders, but they have settled those issues from within.

Vancouver has started on their 14-game, 42-day road trip, which includes the Olympic Break.  They won the first game of the trip to start on the right foot.  Vancouver has won seven in a row and the Canucks are 3rd in the Western Conference.  However, Vancouver is only 11-11-1 on the road.  Will they get more than 14 points during their 14-game trip?…Ottawa has won 9 in a row and has risen to 5th place in the Eastern Conference…Carolina has won four in a row, so even the bottom of the Eastern Conference is playing very well.  The top five spots are pretty safe in Washington, New Jersey, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Ottawa.  Philadelphia and Florida are next, with Atlanta and Montreal close behind…In the Western Conference, the Kings are hot, winning six in a row, including two against the Bruins in shootouts, and have climbed all the way to 5th in the West.  Calgary snapped a long losing streak with a big win against Edmonton, and the Flames are in 8th but tied in points with 9th-place Detroit.

68:00-76:00 MLB: Mets let free agents pitchers them by
The Mets have sat idly by while Joel Pineiro, Jon Garland, and Ben Sheets pass them by.  Not that the Mets should have jumped at any of these pitchers.  The Sheets deal of $10 million guaranteed plus incentives is a tough call for Oakland.  If the deal does not pan out, the A’s will not be able to rebound from that move as easily as a team in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, or Boston would.

The Mets have to do something.  They need a starting pitcher and the only way to go right now is by trade.  Mike Pelfrey is not a #2.  John Maine is not a #3.  Oliver Perez might be a #5.  If the Mets can get a #2 pitcher behind Johan Santana, Pelfrey and Maine can slot themselves where they belong on the staff.

In the deal to get Gary Matthews, Jr., they traded reliever Brian Stokes.  Now, they could use another arm in the bullpen.  A 7th-inning reliever is more important than a 4th or 5th outfielder.

A lot of the moves have not made have been smart in letting Sheets, Carlos Delgado, and Bengie Molina go.  They are learning after paying Oliver Perez his overvalued contract last offseason, but that does not bring in the right players for 2010.  There is no reason why the Mets should not try to contend.  They have a great nucleus and they have pillars to their franchise.  The wrath of Met fans are coming from the bad taste in their mouths from last year and the poor persona of Omar Minaya in the media.

The big move the Mets did make was for Jason Bay.  He needs to hit 30 homers to validate the signing and that might help David Wright get a few more out of the park, too.

Free agents still out there: Johnny Damon, Orlando Hudson, Erik Bedard, Jose Valverde

76:00-78:00 – Close: Next Week’s Show Preview, Upcoming Schedule
Next Week
We will have Breakfast with the StatMan on Sunday morning.  Our next show (#45) will be at 10am Eastern time for an hour on Super Bowl Sunday.  We will have our Super Bowl predictions and we’ll talk some more hockey and Hot Stove baseball.

Upcoming Schedule
• Wednesday: “Random Musings” Sports Column (blog)
• Saturday night: Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition – Super Bowl XLIV (blog)
• Sunday, 10-11am ET: Sports With The StatMan: No. 45 (live show)
• Sunday: Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Hockey Edition – Week 19 (blog)

* All blogs will be available on our “secondary” blog, which is called “Random Musings from the StatMan” (http://gstatman.blogspot.com). You can listen to the show live at our show page (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan) or download the podcast, which is normally available 15 minutes after the show, either from the show page or from iTunes (search: Sports With The StatMan).

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:
• Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
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Send your pro or fantasy questions or comments on the Show Page or the “Random Musings” blog, or you can send me a tweet. I’ll be sure to get back to you. Also, check the show page for times and schedules of our one-hour show and our last blog entries, such as our Fantasy Hockey Edition and our Random Musings weekly sports column.

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