Showing posts with label Fantasy Football Edition. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fantasy Football Edition. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition - Super Bowl XLIV

The Super Bowl has already happened, but I did write down my Super Bowl pick before the game, as well as predictions on which quarterback, running back, and wide receiver would have the bigger game.  The Colts and Saints were the two best teams in the league.  They had the longest undefeated strings to start the season.  They had the best quarterbacks in football this year.  Their defenses were underrated.  But, there were some differences.  New Orleans had the better running game.  Saint coach Sean Payton is a disciple of hard-nosed Bill Parcells while Colt neophyte Jim Caldwell took over this year for the gentle Tony Dungy.

Before we talk about the Super Bowl, let’s back up one week.  The AFC and NFC title games were played and the only team without a bye week who was still in the tournament was the New York Jets.  But, the Jets run was over in a rematch with the Colts.  The Saints reached their first Super Bowl in their 43-year history with an overtime victory over Brett Favre and the Vikings.  Here are the top fantasy performances from the Conference Championship games:

Conference Championship Round Top Fantasy Performers
Quarterback
 1. Peyton Manning IND – 31 points (26-for-39, 377 yards, 3 TD (16,4,15), 0 INT, 1 rush for 0 yards)
 2. Drew Brees NO – 23 points (17-for-31, 197 yards, 3 TD (38,9,5), 0 INT, 1 rush for 0 yards)
 3. Mark Sanchez NYJ – 22 points (17-for-30, 257 yards, 2 TD (80,9), 1 INT, 2 rushes for 1 yard)

Running Back
 1. Adrian Peterson MIN – 27 points (25 rushes for 122 yards, 3 TD (19,1,2), 2 catches for 14 yards)
 2. Pierre Thomas NO – 23 points (14 rushes for 61 yards, 1 TD (9), 2 catches for 38 yards, 1 rec TD (38))
T3. Joseph Addai IND – 8 points (16 rushes for 80 yards, 1 catch for 13 yards, 1 fumble lost)
T3. Reggie Bush NO – 8 points (7 rushes for 8 yards, 2 catches for 33 yards, 1 rec TD (5), 1 fumble lost)

Wide Receiver
 1. Braylon Edwards NYJ – 20 points (2 catches for 100 yards, 1 TD (80))
 2. Pierre Garcon IND – 19 points (11 catches for 151 yards, 1 TD (4))
 3. Austin Collie IND – 18 points (7 catches for 123 yards, 1 TD (16))

Tight End
 1. Dustin Keller NYJ – 16 points (6 catches for 63 yards, 1 TD (9))
 2. Dallas Clark IND – 13 points (4 catches for 35 yards, 1 TD (15))
 3. Visanthe Shiancoe MIN – 12 points (4 catches for 83 yards)

Kicker
 1. Matt Stover IND – 12 points (3-for-3 in field goals (25,19,21), 3-for-3 in extra points)
 2. Garrett Hartley NO – 9 points (1-for-1 in field goals (40), 4-for-4 in extra points)
 3. Jay Feely NYJ – 7 points (1-for-3 in field goals (48), 2-for-2 in extra points)

Defense/Special Team
 1. Saints NO – 5 points (2 INT, 3 fumble recoveries, 28 points allowed)
T2. Colts IND – 3 points (1 INT, 17 points allowed)
T2. Jets NYJ – 3 points (2 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 30 points allowed)

Conference Championship Round Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em Results (1-2)
QB: Drew Brees NO (start) vs. Peyton Manning IND (sit) – (L, Manning 31, Brees 23)
RB: Shonn Greene NYJ (start) vs. Reggie Bush NO (sit) – (L, Bush 8, Greene 4)
WR: Devery Henderson NO (start) vs. Reggie Wayne IND (sit) – (W, Henderson 7, Wayne 5)

SUPER BOWL XLIV
Sunday 6:30pm – New Orleans vs. Indianapolis (-5)

Super Bowl pick
NO-IND: Colts 40, Saints 30 (Colts win and cover)
The Colts managed to put up 30 points against the Jets while using two rookies as their main receivers.  Pierre Garcon set an AFC Championship Game record with 11 catches and Garcon and Austin Collie both caught touchdowns from Peyton Manning.  The Saints do not have the shutdown corner the Jets have in Darrelle Revis so Reggie Wayne will be in play more in the Super Bowl than last game.  The Colts defense has been much better than advertised against the run and the Saints have a deceptively good running game with Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush.  The Saints defense will try to blitz, but RB Joseph Addai is good at picking it up.  This should give Peyton Manning more time to make plays downfield.

For the Saints to win, Reggie Bush has to get involved, injured Colts DE Dwight Freeney has to be kept at bay, and they have to fool the Colts defense with different looks.  The Saints are great on screen passes and this could help keep the Colts defense on their heels.  The Colts defense is quick, but the Saints offensive players are quick, too, including their wide receivers, who can run as well as receive.

Game Result: Saints 31, Colts 17 (Saints won and covered)
The Saints won the game with the unbelievably efficient play of Drew Brees.  Brees tied Tom Brady for the Super Bowl record in completions in a game with 32.  Though Brees only averaged 9 yards per completion for 288 yards, Brees dinked and dunked his way to an 82% completion percentage.  Brees outplayed Peyton Manning and won MVP honors.  The play calling was solid, culminating in a screen pass to Pierre Thomas, who scored from 16 yards out.  Former Giant TE Jeremy Shockey caught the go-ahead touchdown with under 6 minutes left in the fourth quarter.  

But, almost as impressive as Brees was the Saints defense.  Gregg Williams had his defense give Manning fits, changing looks and even alignments, switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3.  The only turnover in the game sealed the victory for the Saints.  Manning tried to reach Reggie Wayne, who had a disappointing game.  Malcolm Jenkins jumped the route and intercepted Manning's pass 74 yards for a touchdown for the icing on the cake.

Super Bowl Start 'Em/Sit 'Em
QB: Drew Brees NO (start) vs. Peyton Manning IND (sit)
I am a glutton for punishment.  I gave you the same Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em last week at quarterback and Manning had the better day, 31-23.  But, I think Brees will be passing from behind and will get more yards.  Otherwise, the statistics may be pretty even for these two stars.

RB: Pierre Thomas NO (start) vs. Joseph Addai IND (sit)
Thomas is a double threat in that he can run and receive.  Thomas caught a pivotal screen pass against the Vikings for a touchdown and found the end zone with some great individual moves when it would have been easier to go out of bounds.  Addai plays in an offense that does not feature the run and he is more of a runner than a receiver.  Thomas wins this one on versatility.

WR: Reggie Wayne IND (start) vs. Marques Colston NO (sit)
Wayne will be liberated by not having to go up against Darrelle Revis.  Wayne only had three catches for 55 yards against Revis and the Jets.  This week, he has a better opportunity to go for big yards and a score.  Colston is the most dependable receiver for the Saints and he gets there on volume.  I am looking for the Colts to keep his catches to manageable gains without allowing him to break one.

Super Bowl Top Fantasy Performers
Quarterback
 1. Drew Brees NO – 23 points (32-for-39, 288 yards, 2 TD (16,2), 0 INT, 1 rush for -1 yard)
 2. Peyton Manning IND – 17 points (31-for-45, 333 yards, 1 TD (19), 1 INT)

Running Back
T1. Joseph Addai IND – 16 points (13 rushes for 77 yards, 1 TD (4), 7 catches for 58 yards)
T1. Pierre Thomas NO – 16 points (9 rushes for 30 yards, 6 catches for 55 yards, 1 rec TD (16))
 3. Reggie Bush NO – 5 points (5 rushes for 25 yards, 4 catches for 38 yards)

Wide Receiver
 1. Pierre Garcon IND – 12 points (5 catches for 66 yards, 1 TD (19))
 2. Marques Colston NO – 8 points (7 catches for 83 yards)
T3. Austin Collie IND – 6 points (6 catches for 66 yards)
T3. Devery Henderson NO – 6 points (7 catches for 63 yards)

Tight End
 1. Dallas Clark IND – 15 points (7 catches for 86 yards)
 2. Jeremy Shockey NO – 8 points (3 catches for 13 yards, 1 TD (2))

Kicker
 1. Garrett Hartley NO – 17 points (3-for-3 in field goals (46,44,47), 2-for-2 in extra points)
 2. Matt Stover IND – 6 points (1-for-2 in field goals (38), 2-for-2 in extra points)

Defense/Special Team
 1. Saints NO – 8 points (1 INT, 1 INT-TD (74), 17 points allowed)
 2. Colts IND – 1 point (1 sack, 31 points allowed)

Super Bowl Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em Results (1-1-1)
QB: Drew Brees NO (start) vs. Peyton Manning IND (sit) – (W, Brees 23, Manning 17)
RB: Pierre Thomas NO (start) vs. Joseph Addai IND (sit) – (T, Thomas 16, Addai 16)
WR: Reggie Wayne IND (start) vs. Marques Colston NO (sit) – (L, Colston 8, Wayne 4)

Final Playoff Pick Standings
Straight Up: 7-4, AFC Champ: IND (W), NFC Champ: NO (W), Super Bowl: IND (L)
Against The Spread: 5-6, AFC Champ: NYJ (L), NFC Champ: NO (L), Super Bowl: IND (L)
Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em: 4-7-1 (Starts: 100 points, Sits: 113 points)

Upcoming Blog Schedule and Next Show
Our next blog posts will be:
• Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Hockey Edition – Week 19
• Show Notes #45
• Random Musings weekly sports column

Join us for our next installment of “Sports With The StatMan” on Sunday, February 14th, at a special time, 10pm ET.  We’ll chat for an hour on hockey, football, and a little baseball.  In hockey, we’ll have an Olympic Preview and break down the week for our local teams.  We’ll our 2009 NFL Season In Review to put a capper on the football season.  And, as always, what would an offseason show be without the Hot Stove.  All of this and more on a special Valentine’s Day edition of “Sports With The StatMan” on Sunday from 10-11pm Eastern.

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:
• Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
• Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
• “Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
• iTunes: search for “Sports With The StatMan”

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition - Conference Championship Weekend

Three teams with bye weeks are among the four teams left, so the rest has done the Colts, Saints, and Vikings some good. The upstart Jets are still alive and will face the only team left in the playoffs that has gone all the way in the last few years. The Colts and Saints were both undefeated very deep into the season and while the Saints tried for the perfect season and lost, the Colts stopped their perfect season voluntarily. What’s more is the Colts stopped that perfect season at home against the Jets. Now, the Colts can have their revenge. Or, the Jets can try to prove their win in Indianapolis was justified.

Before we get to our predictions and Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em for the Conference Championship Round, let’s recap the Divisional Playoff Round:

Divisional Playoff Round Top Fantasy Performers
Quarterback
1. Brett Favre MIN – 41 points (15-for-24, 234 yards, 4 TD (47,16,45,11), 0 INT)
2. Drew Brees NO – 29 points (23-for-32, 247 yards, 3 TD (17,44,2), 0 INT, 3 rushes for -3 yards)
3. Philip Rivers SDG – 19 points (27-for-40, 298 yards, 1 TD (13), 2 INT, 3 rushes for 4 yards)

Running Back
1. Shonn Greene NYJ – 22 points (23 rushes for 128 yards, 1 TD (53), 1 catch for 4 yards)
T2. Reggie Bush NO – 20 points (5 rushes for 84 yards, 1 TD (46), 4 catches for 24 yards)
T2. Tim Hightower ARZ – 20 points (6 rushes for 87 yards, 1 TD (70), 3 catches for 27 yards)

Wide Receiver
1. Sidney Rice MIN – 40 points (6 catches for 141 yards, 3 TD (47,16,45))
2. Devery Henderson NO – 18 points (4 catches for 80 yards, 1 TD (44))
3. Marques Colston NO – 12 points (6 catches for 83 yards, 1 TD (2))

Tight End
1. Jason Witten DAL – 19 points (10 catches for 98 yards)
2. Antonio Gates SDG – 17 points (8 catches for 93 yards)
T3. Dallas Clark IND – 12 points (7 catches for 59 yards)
T3. Jeremy Shockey NO – 12 points (3 catches for 36 yards, TD (17))

Kicker
T1. Garrett Hartley NO – 11 points (1-for-1 in field goals (43), 6-for-6 in extra points)
T1. Matt Stover IND – 11 points (2-for-2 in field goals (44,33), 2-for-2 in extra points)
3. Ryan Longwell MIN – 10 points (2-for-2 in field goals (23,28), 4-for-4 in extra points)

Defense/Special Team
1. Vikings MIN – 16 points (1 INT, 6 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, 3 points allowed)
2. Saints NO – 14 points (1 INT, 1 sack, 1 fumble recovery, punt return TD (83), 14 points allowed)
3. Colts IND – 12 points (2 INT, 1 sack, 2 fumble recoveries, 3 points allowed)

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND SCHEDULE
Sunday 3:00pm – N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis (-7.5)
Sunday 6:40pm – Minnesota at New Orleans (-3.5)

Conference Championship Picks:
NYJ-IND: Colts win, but Jets (+7.5) cover
The Jets have won by 10 over the Bengals and by a field goal over San Diego. There will be enough Jet fans in Indianapolis so that the crowd noise will not be a huge factor. The Jets have won already won close in a hostile environment in the playoffs, but Indianapolis has seven fourth-quarter comebacks this year. Indianapolis may have the best quarterback in NFL history, one of the best tight ends in the game, one of the best wide receivers in the game, and an underrated defense that gets at the quarterback and may have figured out how not to let the run beat them. The pass rush from the ends for the Colts makes their defense go.

For the Jets to win, they will need to keep from turning the ball over, run the ball effectively, and pressure Manning and hope he gets happy feet. Darrelle Revis has to neutralize Reggie Wayne and the rest of the defense has to make it tough to get the ball to Dallas Clark. There will be a big defensive takeaway by the Jets if there is an upset. I see how it can happen, but most of the weapons are in the Colts’ favor. But, that hasn’t stopped the Jets before. It didn’t 41 years ago.

MIN-NO: Saints win and cover (-3.5)
Speaking of weapons, this game is a call to arms. Both teams have devastating playmakers. The Saints have the new and improved Reggie Bush and their receiving corps who can run after the catch, led by Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, and Devery Henderson. The Vikings have Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, and Sidney Rice. Both quarterbacks are among the elite and Drew Brees can join the elite with two more wins this year. Brett Favre is already there and if this is his swan song, he will be remembered as one of the two or three greatest of all time.

For the Vikings to win, they have to shake their road blues. They will have to cover the Saint receivers well. They will have to shrink the pocket for Brees and force the Saints to lean on their running game because defending the run is the Vikings defensive strength. Harvin has to come up big in the receiving and the return games. Everyone is waiting for Favre to start throwing interceptions and Darren Sharper will be the X-factor in the Saints defensive backfield. Keep the ball away from Sharper and the passing game can thrive for the Vikings.

Start 'Em/Sit 'Em
QB: Drew Brees NO (start) vs. Peyton Manning IND (sit)
Both quarterbacks have their crowds behind them. But, Brees has more weapons and Manning is facing a better pass defense. Also, Manning has not had to put up fantastic numbers in order to get his team to advance in the playoffs.

RB: Shonn Greene NYJ (start) vs. Reggie Bush NO (sit)
The flavors of the month are squaring off here. Greene has a better chance to keep their train moving. I’ll admit, I drank the Jet Kool-Aid on Greene, but he has protected the ball while spelling Thomas Jones and making plays for big gains. Bush’s best chance to change the game for the Saints is through the return game, which does not count in our fantasy scoring. If your league counts return yardage and scoring, sit any other Saint running back.

WR: Devery Henderson NO (start) vs. Reggie Wayne IND (sit)
Pick a receiver, any receiver, for the Saints. Meachem had a good end to the season. Colston is their star. I’ll take a chance that Henderson will be about to duplicate his performance as the second-best receiver in the playoffs this week and find the end zone again. Wayne draws Darrelle Revis, who brings the great resume. We picked the top receiver on Revis’s Jet team as the “sit” last week, but Revis was not on him very much and, consequently, Vincent Jackson hauled in seven catches for 111 yards. Revis has not allowed a 100-yard receiver that he has blanketed all game.

Last Week’s Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em Results (0-3)
QB: Tony Romo DAL (start) vs. Kurt Warner ARZ (sit) – (L, Warner 6, Romo 3)
RB: Willis McGahee BAL (start) vs. LaDainian Tomlinson SDG (sit) – (L, Tomlinson 2, McGahee 0)
WR: Robert Meachem NO (start) vs. Vincent Jackson SDG (sit) – (L, Jackson 11, Meachem 0)

Playoff Team Rankings – Conference Championship Round
Quarterbacks
1. Manning IND, 2. Brees NO, 3. Favre MIN, 4. Sanchez NYJ

Rushing
1. Jones/Greene NYJ, 2. Peterson/Taylor MIN, 3. Bell/Thomas/Bush NO, 4. Addai/Brown IND

Receiving (WR/WR/TE)
1. Wayne/Garcon/Clark IND, 2. Colston/Meachem/Shockey NO, 3. Rice/Harvin/Shiancoe MIN, 4. Cotchery/Edwards/Keller NYJ

Kicking
1. Longwell MIN, 2. Feely NYJ, 3. Stover IND, 4. Hartley NO

Coach
1. Payton NO, 2. Ryan NYJ, 3. Childress MIN, 4. Caldwell IND

Defense/Special Teams
1. NYJ, 2. MIN, 3. NO, 4. IND

Total Rankings
1. MIN (13), 2. NYJ (14), 3. NO (16), 4. IND (17)

Playoff Pick Standings
Straight Up: 5-3, NO (W), IND (W), MIN (W), SDG (L)
Against The Spread: 5-3, ARZ (L), IND (W), MIN (W), NYJ (W)
Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em: 2-4 (Starts: 23 points, Sits: 28 points)

We will break down each of the four Divisional Championship matchups on Sports With The StatMan (#43) this Sunday night, January 24th. Join us at our new time, 8-9pm Eastern. We will break down the Jets-Colts AFC Championship Game and talk about the Vikings-Saints NFC Championship Game, which will be in-progress. There are no a lot of free agents left in baseball. We’ll look at the slim pickings left for the Mets and the ultimatum made to one free agent by the Yankees. In hockey, we’ll break down the Devils-Islanders two-game set this week and Marian Gaborik dropping the gloves for the Rangers.

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:
• Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
• Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
• “Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition – Divisional Championship Weekend

The Wild Card Round involved three of the four local teams, with only the Giants watching the playoffs from home. The Eagles and Patriots bowed to the Cowboys and Ravens, respectively. The Jets remain in the fight for the promised land, as they advanced against the Bengals. The Jets are also as big an underdog as any other team, tied with the Cardinals as seven-point underdogs.

Before we get to our predictions and Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em for the Divisional Championship Round, let’s recap the Wild Card Round:

Wild Card Round Top Fantasy Performers
Quarterback
1. Kurt Warner ARZ – 47 points (29-for-33, 379 yards, 5 TD (15,15,33,11,17), 0 INT)
2. Aaron Rodgers GBY – 44 points (28-for-42, 422 yards, 4 TD (6,10,30,11), 1 INT, 3 rushes for 13 yards, 1 rushing TD (1), 1 fumble lost)
T3. Tony Romo DAL – 17 points (23-for-35, 244 yards, 2 TD (1,6), 0 INT, 2 rushes for 4 yards)
T3. Mark Sanchez NYJ – 17 points (12-for-15, 182 yards, 1 TD (45), 0 INT, 3 rushes for -2 yards)

Running Back
1. Ray Rice BAL – 29 points (22 rushes for 159 yards, 2 TD (83,1))
T2. Cedric Benson CIN – 27 points (21 rushes for 169 yards, TD (47), 3 catches for 12 yards)
T2. Felix Jones DAL – 27 points (16 rushes for 148 yards, TD (73), 1 catch for 30 yards)

Wide Receiver
1. Jeremy Maclin PHL – 24 points (7 catches for 146 yards, TD (76))
2. Larry Fitzgerald ARZ – 21 points (6 catches for 82 yards, 2 TD (33,11), 1 fumble lost)
3. Steve Breaston ARZ – 20 points (7 catches for 125 yards, TD (17), 1 rush for 28 yards)

Tight End
1. Dustin Keller NYJ – 22 points (3 catches for 99 yards, TD (45))
2. Jermichael Finley GBY – 21 points (6 catches for 159 yards)
3. Spencer Havner GBY – 9 points (2 catches for 16 yards, TD (11))

Kicker
1. Scott Suisham DAL – 12 points (2-for-2 in field goals (25,48), 4-for-4 in extra points)
T2. Mason Crosby GBY – 9 points (1-for-2 in field goals (20), 6-for-6 in extra points)
T2. Billy Cundiff BAL – 9 points (2-for-2 in field goals (27), 3-for-3 in extra points)
T2. Neil Rackers ARZ – 9 points (1-for-2 in field goals (23), 6-for-6 in extra points)

Defense/Special Team
T1. Cardinals ARZ – 13 points (1 INT, 5 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, 1 FRTD (17), 45 points allowed)
T1. Cowboys DAL – 13 points (1 INT, 4 sacks, 3 fumble recoveries, 14 points allowed)
3. Ravens BAL – 12 points (3 INT, 3 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 14 points allowed)

DIVISIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND SCHEDULE
Saturday 4:30pm - Arizona at New Orleans (-7)
Saturday 8:15pm - Baltimore at Indianapolis (-6)
Sunday 1:00pm - Dallas at Minnesota (-3)
Sunday 4:30pm - N.Y. Jets at San Diego (-7)

Divisional Championship Picks:
ARZ-NO: Saints win, but Cardinals (+7) cover
The Cardinals just came off a big offensive showdown against the Packers and this looks like a similar matchup. The Saints are also a passing offense and their defense has a tendency to be overrated just like the Packers. The Saints started the season with a great defense, but they have been pedestrian over their last six games. Look for a punch-and-counterpunch type of game and a rested Saints team winning by a field goal.

BAL-IND: Colts win and cover (-6)
The Ravens are at their best when they run the ball, and the Colts are at their worst when they defend the run, especially without Bob Sanders, who is out for the season. But, the Colts have shown they do not need much time to execute their offensive plan and the Ravens may only be able to score on the Colts by grinding out long drives and running the ball. If the Colts pass well, quick scores will be needed and the Ravens will have a tough time doing that.

DAL-MIN: Vikings win and cover (-3)
The Cowboys are a tough team to figure. They win when you expect them to lose and they have lost when you expect them to win, that is, until last week. The Cowboys beat the Eagles and looked good doing it. So, naturally, a struggling Vikings team should fall prey to a hot Cowboys team, right? Wrong. The Cowboys will prove why they are such an enigmatic team against Favre and his weapons.

NYJ-SDG: Chargers win, but Jets cover (+7)
The Chargers come in to this game healthy (1 player on the injury report) and with the two best receivers on either team (Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates). But, the Jets won on rushing and defense. Their defense will have to be at their best, and for the Jets to win, Darrelle Revis needs to have a big day shutting down Jackson and the rest of the defense has to find a way to shut down Gates. The maturation of Mark Sanchez will continue, but he will not be able to pull this one out.

Start 'Em/Sit 'Em
QB: Tony Romo DAL (start) vs. Kurt Warner ARZ (sit)
How can you sit a quarterback after a 29-for-33 performance? Easy. When the Saints defense blitzes, Warner will have to find the open man very quickly and Anquan Boldin will miss another game. The best defense against Warner is a blitzing defense that gets to Warner. Romo may find his receivers deep against a mediocre Vikings secondary.

RB: Willis McGahee BAL (start) vs. LaDainian Tomlinson SDG (sit)
The Ravens will be able to run on the Colts and though McGahee is the backup to Ray Rice in the Ravens backfield, McGahee will still get enough touches, possibly matching the 20 carries he had last week. The Chargers are no longer Tomlinson’s team. This is Philip Rivers’s team and the Chargers run a passing offense. Other than goal-line touches, Tomlinson should not be a featured part of the offense.

WR: Robert Meachem NO (start) vs. Vincent Jackson SDG (sit)
When the Saints last won games, Meachem was the go-to guy. The Saints are going to have to pass their way past the Cardinals with all of the injuries to their running backs. Jackson will go up against Darrelle Revis, who brings with him an impressive resume of shutting down top wideouts.

Last Week’s Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em Results (2-1)
QB: Joe Flacco BAL (start) vs. Carson Palmer CIN (sit) – (L, Palmer 9, Flacco minus-1)
RB: Chris Wells ARZ (start) vs. Marion Barber DAL (sit) – (W, Wells 9, Barber 0)
WR: Julian Edelman NE (start) vs. Anquan Boldin ARZ (sit) – (W, Edelman 12, Boldin DNP)

Playoff Team Rankings
Quarterbacks
1. Manning IND, 2. Brees NO, 3. Favre MIN, 4. Warner ARZ, 5. Rivers SDG, 6. Romo DAL, 7. Flacco BAL, 8. Sanchez NYJ

Rushing
1. Jones/Greene NYJ, 2. Rice/McGahee/McClain BAL, 3. Peterson/Taylor MIN, 4. Barber/Jones/Choice DAL, 5. Tomlinson/Sproles SDG, 6. Addai/Brown IND, 7. Bell/Thomas/Bush NO, 8. Wells/Hightower ARZ

Receiving (WR/WR/TE)
1. Wayne/Garcon/Clark IND, 2. Fitzgerald/Breaston/Doucet ARZ, 3. Colston/Meachem/Shockey NO, 4. Rice/Harvin/Shiancoe MIN, 5. Austin/Williams/Witten DAL, 6. Jackson/Floyd/Gates SDG, 7. Cotchery/Edwards/Keller NYJ, 8. Mason/Clayton/Heap BAL

Kicking
1. Kaeding SDG, 2. Longwell MIN, 3. Feely NYJ, 4. Suisham DAL, 5. Rackers ARZ, 6. Stover IND, 7. Cundiff BAL, 8. Hartley NO

Coach
1. Whisenhunt ARZ, 2. Harbaugh BAL, 3. Payton NO, 4. Turner SDG, 5. Ryan NYJ, 6. Childress MIN, 7. Phillips DAL, 8. Caldwell IND

Defense/Special Teams
1. NYJ, 2. BAL, 3. MIN, 4. NO, 5. DAL, 6. SDG, 7. IND, 8. ARZ

Total Rankings
1. MIN (21), 2. NYJ (25), T3. NO (27), T3. SDG (27), T5. ARZ (28), T5. BAL (28), 7. IND (29), 8. DAL (31)

Playoff Pick Standings
Straight Up: 2-2, NYJ (W), DAL (L), BAL (L), ARZ (W)
Against The Spread: 2-2, NYJ (W), DAL (L), BAL (L), ARZ (W)
Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em: 2-1 (Starts: 20 points, Sits: 9 points)

We will break down each of the four Divisional Championship matchups on Sports With The StatMan (#42) this Sunday night, January 17th. Join us at our new time, 8-9pm Eastern. We will be among the first to analyze the upcoming Conference Championship games. Besides football, we'll talk about the Carlos Beltran situation. We will also have some NHL talk, as the Devils beat the Rangers in a classic at the Garden and the Islanders are surprising even themselves.

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:
• Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
• Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
• “Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition - Wild Card Weekend

The season is over and while our preseason predictions for each team will be broken down after the Super Bowl on the Sports With The StatMan show, let's get into the predictions for the four games of Wild Card Weekend. Also, even though the regular season is over, playoff fantasy leagues are gaining popularity, so naturally we will have a playoff version of Start 'Em and Sit 'Em.

Before we talk about this week, let's review last week. The 300-yard passers, 100-yard rushers, and 100-yard receivers are in the Show Notes from last week (#40), but here are the top fantasy scorers at each position:

Week 17 Top Fantasy Performers
Quarterback
1. Brett Favre MIN - 32 points (25-for-31, 316 yards, 4 TD (10,4,12,1), 0 INT, 1 rush for 2 yards)
2. Jay Cutler CHI - 29 points (22-for-36, 276 yards, 4 TD (7,9,1,12), 0 INT, 1 rush for 5 yards)
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF - 28 points (16-for-25, 155 yards, 3 TD (11,21,41), 0 INT, 1 rush for 7 yards)

Running Back
1. Jamaal Charles KCY - 39 points (25 rushes for 259 yards, 2 TD (5,56), 1 rec for 3 yards)
2. Willis McGahee BAL - 34 points (16 rushes for 167 yards, 3 TD (2,77,2))
3. Fred Jackson BUF - 30 points (33 rushes for 212 yards, 2 rec for 15 yards, 1 rec TD (11))

Wide Receiver
1. Jabar Gaffney DEN - 21 points (14 rec for 213 yards)
2. Sidney Rice MIN - 21 points (6 rec for 112 yards, 2 TD (4,12))
3. Brad Smith NYJ - 19 points (4 rushes for 92 yards, 1 rush TD (32))

Tight End
1. Vernon Davis SFO - 24 points (6 rec for 89 yards, 1 TD (73))
2. Zach Miller JAX - 24 points (8 rec for 69 yards, 2 TD (6,15))
T3. Joel Dreessen HOU - 22 points (6 rec for 81 yards, 1 TD (25))
T3. Visanthe Shiancoe MIN - 22 points (7 rec for 94 yards, 1 TD (10))

Kicker
1. Ryan Succop KCY - 17 points (3-for-3 (20,36,47) in field goals, 5-for-5 in extra points)
T2. Jay Feely NYJ - 16 points (3-for-3 (20,39,40) in field goals, 4-for-4 in extra points)
T2. Robbie Gould CHI - 16 points (3-for-3 (44,28,34) in field goals, 4-for-4 in extra points)
T2. Jason Hanson DET - 16 points (3-for-3 (42,48,32) in field goals, 2-for-2 in extra points)

Defense/Special Team
1. Packers GBY - 17 points (3 INT, 1 safety, 1 INT return TD (45), 7 points allowed)
2. Jets NYJ - 16 points (1 INT, 3 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, 0 points allowed)
T3. 49ers SFO/Chiefs KCY/Cowboys DAL - 15 points each

For the season, several local players made the top three at each position, but here are the top three at each fantasy position, as well as the top three players in our local area of New York, Boston, and Philadelphia:

Season Top Fantasy Performers
Quarterback
1. Aaron Rodgers GBY - 409 points (4,434 passing yards, 30 TD, 7 INT, 103.2 rating, 304 rushing yards, 5 rushing TD, 4 fumbles lost)
2. Drew Brees NO - 366 points (4,388 passing yards, 34 TD, 11 INT, 109.6 rating, 33 rushing yards, 2 TD, 1 rec for minus-4 yards, 6 fumbles lost)
3. Tom Brady NE - 335 points (4,398 passing yards, 28 TD, 13 INT, 96.2 rating, 44 rushing yards, 1 TD, 2 fumbles lost)
Local QBs: 3. Brady NE (335 points), 10. Eli Manning NYG (292), 11. Donovan McNabb PHL (286)

Running Back
1. Chris Johnson TEN - 358 points (2,006 rushing yards (5.6 ypc), 14 TD, 50 rec for 503 yards (10.1 avg), 2 rec TD, 3 fumbles lost)
2. Maurice Jones-Drew JAX - 250 points (1,391 rushing yards (4.5 ypc), 15 TD, 53 rec for 374 yards (7.1 avg), 1 rec TD, 1 fumble lost)
3. Adrian Peterson MIN - 247 points (1,389 rushing yards (4.4 ypc), 18 TD, 43 rec for 436 yards (10.1 avg), 6 fumbles lost)
Local RBs: 6. Thomas Jones NYJ (209 points), T27. Brandon Jacobs NYG (122), 29. Ahmad Bradshaw NYG (119)

Wide Receiver
1. Miles Austin DAL - 212 points (81 rec for 1,320 yards (16.3 avg), 11 TD, 2 rushes for minus-2 yards)
2. Andre Johnson HOU - 211 points (101 rec for 1,569 yards (15.5 avg), 9 TD, 2 rushes for 10 yards)
3. DeSean Jackson PHL - 209 points (63 rec for 1,167 yards (18.5 avg), 9 TD, 11 rushes for 137 yards (12.5 avg), 1 rush TD, 1 fumble lost)
Local WRs: 3. Jackson PHL (209 points), 4. Randy Moss NE (205), 12. Wes Welker NE (153)

Tight End
1. Dallas Clark IND - 261 points (100 rec for 1,106 yards (11.1 avg), 10 TD, 2 rushes for 11 yards (5.5 avg))
2. Vernon Davis SFO - 244 points (78 rec for 965 yards (12.4 avg), 13 TD)
3. Antonio Gates SDG - 235 points (79 rec for 1,157 yards (14.6 avg), 8 TD)
Local TEs: 4. Brent Celek PHL (211 points), 16. Kevin Boss NYG (120), 19. Dustin Keller NYJ (100)

Kicker
1. David Akers PHL - 172 points (32-for-37 on field goals, 43-for-45 on extra points)
2. Nate Kaeding SDG - 171 points (32-for-35 on field goals, 50-for-51 on extra points)
T3. Jay Feely NYJ - 159 points (30-for-36 on field goals, 32-for-32 on extra points)
T3. Ryan Longwell MIN - 159 points (26-for-28 on field goals, 54-for-55 on extra points)
Local Ks: 1. Akers PHL (172 points), T3. Feely NYJ (159), 6. Stephen Gostkowski NE (153)

Defense/Special Team
1. Eagles PHL - 158 points (25 INT, 2 safeties, 44 sacks, 13 fumble recoveries, 6 D/ST TD, 337 points allowed)
2. Packers GBY - 154 points (30 INT, 1 safety, 37 sacks, 10 fumble recoveries, 4 D/ST TD, 297 points allowed)
3. 49ers SFO - 153 points (18 INT, 44 sacks, 15 fumble recoveries, 4 D/ST TD, 281 points allowed)
Local D/STs: 1. Eagles PHL (158 points), 4. Jets NYJ (147), 11. Patriots NE (126)

***

Three of the four Wild Card games involve local area teams. Only the Packers-Cardinals, which is the late afternoon game on Sunday, does not involve the local playoff qualifiers (Patriots, Jets, Eagles):

WILD CARD WEEKEND SCHEDULE
Saturday 4:30pm - N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati (-2.5)
Saturday 8pm - Philadelphia at Dallas (-4)
Sunday 1pm - Baltimore at New England (-3)
Sunday 4:30pm - Green Bay at Arizona (Pick 'em)

Wild Card Picks:
NYJ-CIN: Jets (+2.5) win outright
The Jets might only beat one or two other teams in the AFC Playoffs, but the Bengals are the team the Jets probably match up the best against. The Bengals saw what the Jets have, but that may not stop the Jets from winning. The Jets will run the ball and the Bengals will win their first playoff game in 19 years if they make Sanchez have to beat them.

PHL-DAL: Eagles (+4) win outright
Teams rarely sweep a season series from a divisional rival and win against them again in the playoffs. Dallas is trying to do just that, as Tony Romo tries to win his first playoff game and Wade Phillips tries to navigate a Cowboys team to their first playoff win in 13 years. The Eagles will have more success against the Cowboys secondary than the Cowboys will against the Eagles defensive backfield.

BAL-NE: Patriots (-3) win and cover
This is the easiest game to pick, but the best news for the Ravens was the injury to WR Wes Welker. Julian Edelman will sub for Welker and will do almost as well. The Ravens have a great defensive history, but in recent memory, their defense is overrated and their penalties come at the worst times.

GBY-ARZ: Cardinals (Pick 'em) win/cover
In a game that will undoubtedly be closer than last week's 33-7 Packer win, Anquan Boldin may not play, which would be a big loss for Arizona before they even kick the ball off. But, the defending NFC Champions, backed by Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner will win if they win if the Cardinal defensive line can win the battle in the trenches.

Start 'Em/Sit 'Em
QB: Joe Flacco BAL (start) vs. Carson Palmer CIN (sit)
New England is vulnerable deep and Flacco has two games of playoff experience. If a banged-up Chad Ochocinco is shut down by Darrelle Revis, Palmer will have to rely on ex-Jet Laveranues Coles.

RB: Chris Wells ARZ (start) vs. Marion Barber DAL (sit)
Wells has gained playing time and big minutes during the season, so he is pretty fresh for this game. In order for play action passing to work for the Cardinals, the running game will at least have to keep the Packers honest. Barber is part of a three-headed monster against a good Eagles defense that will try to stop Barber from bouncing to the outside.

WR: Julian Edelman NE (start) vs. Anquan Boldin ARZ (sit)
Edelman may be the biggest surprise of this round, as he will try to fill Wes Welker's big shoes. Randy Moss will draw more coverage and Edelman could make the Ravens sorry. Boldin is hampered by an ankle injury and may not play much for the Cardinals.

Playoff Team Rankings
Quarterbacks
1. Rodgers GBY, 2. Brady NE, 3. McNabb PHL, 4. Romo DAL, 5. Flacco BAL, 6. Warner ARZ, 7. Palmer CIN, 8. Sanchez NYJ

Rushing
1. Jones/Greene NYJ, 2. Rice/McGahee BAL, 3. Barber/Jones/Choice DAL, 4. Benson/Johnson/Scott CIN, 5. Grant/Jackson GBY, 6. Westbrook/McCoy PHL, 7. Maroney/Morris/Taylor NE, 8. Wells/Hightower ARZ

Receiving (WR/WR/TE)
1. Austin/Williams/Witten DAL, 2. Jackson/Maclin/Celek PHL, 3. Jennings/Driver/Finley GBY, 4. Fitzgerald/Boldin/Becht ARZ, 5. Moss/Edelman/Watson NE, 6. Cotchery/Edwards/Keller NYJ, 7. Ochocinco/Coles/Foschi CIN, 8. Mason/Clayton/Heap BAL

Kicking
1. Gostkowski NE, 2. Akers PHL, 3. Crosby GBY, 4. Feely NYJ, 5. Rackers ARZ, 6. Graham CIN, 7. Cundiff BAL, 8. Suisham DAL

Coaching
1. Belichick NE, 2. Reid PHL, 3. Whisenhunt ARZ, 4. Harbaugh BAL, 5. McCarthy GBY, 6. Lewis CIN, 7. Ryan NYJ, 8. Phillips DAL

Defense/Special Teams
1. NYJ, 2. BAL, 3. PHL, 4. NE, 5. GBY, 6. CIN, 7. ARZ, 8. DAL

Total Rankings
T1. NE (19), T1. PHL (19), 3. GBY (22), 4. NYJ (27), 5. BAL (28), 6. DAL (32), 7. ARZ (33), 8. CIN (36)

Final Regular Season Pick Standings
Local Games: 39-25 (straight up), 34-29-1 (against the spread)
Big Games: 37-18 (straight up), 29-24-2 (against the spread)
Knockout Pool picks: 13-4
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em: Starts avg 13.43 points, Sits avg 7.91 points (+5.52)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Head-to-Head: 30-11-1 (QB: 11-3, RB: 10-3-1, WR: 9-5)

We will break down each of the four Wild Card matchups on Sports With The StatMan (#41) this Sunday night, January 10th. Join us at our new time, 8-9pm Eastern. We will be among the first to analyze the Divisional Championship games. Besides football, we'll talk about the moves the Mets still have to make. We will also have some NHL talk, as the Bruins and Rangers met twice this week and the week of outdoor hockey at Fenway comes to an end.

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:
• “Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com

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