StatMan Contender Index: Week of September 10, 2012

The Yankees have not gained ground in the playoff race in four weeks, but they are still ahead of Baltimore and Tampa in the division. The saving grace for the Yankees is their remaining schedule.  The Yankees' remaining opponents this season have a combined winning percentage of .477, while Baltimore (#11, 277.7 SCI) has a .501 and Tampa Bay (#8, 279.8 SCI) has a .513.

Washington looks like a serious lock for the playoffs at this point, leading baseball over the past week in gaining ground.  The Nationals added 180.7 points to lead the way at 661.5 points in the StatMan Contender Index.  Washington trailed Cincinnati by 3 points last week, but took a commanding 78.5-point lead.

Atlanta is the top Wild Card leader in the rankings at #3 and the lowest division leader is the Chicago White Sox, which come in at #8 (292.9 SCI).  While Chicago leads the division, Detroit (#14, 266.8 SCI) has an easier schedule the rest of the way (DET .469, CHW .481).  Tampa Bay is the top-ranked team that would not have a playoff spot if the season ended today, as the Rays rank #9 (279.8 SCI).

StatMan CONTENDER RANKINGS - as of September 10th

#	Team	SCI	Record	Standings	Magic/Elimination	OWPCT Season	OWPCT Week 24	OWPCT Weeks 24-25
1	Washington	661.5	86-54, .614	+5.5 NLE	DIV M# 29, PLY M# 10	.5103	.5190	.5140
2	Cincinnati	533.0	84-57, .596	+8.5 NLC	DIV M# 30, PLY M# 12	.4890	.4825	.4690
3	Atlanta	404.6	81-60, .574	-5.5 NLE, +7.0 NLWC	DIV E# 17, PLY M# 15	.4966	.5535	.5118
4	San Francisco	393.5	79-61, .564	+5.5 NLW	DIV M# 29, PLY M# 17	.4608	.4460	.4378
5	Texas	370.1	83-57, .593	+3.5 ALW	DIV M# 26, PLY M# 17	.5177	.4480	.4803
6	NY Yankees	309.3	79-61, .564	+1.0 ALE	DIV M# 24, PLY M# 21	.4766	.5050	.5063
16	Philadelphia	206.5	69-71, .493	-17.0 NLE, -6.0 NLWC	DIV E# 7, PLY E# 18	.4880	.3710	.4393
19	NY Mets	143.9	65-75, .464	-21.0 NLE, -10.0 NLWC	DIV E# 3, PLY E# 14	.5125	.5535	.5118
25	Boston	68.3	63-78, .447	-16.5 ALE, -15.5 ALWC	DIV E# 6, PLY E# 7	.5413	.5055	.5311

Key:
SCI - StatMan Contender Index, DIV - Division, PLY - Playoff, M# - Magic Number, E# - Elimination Number, OWPCT - Opposing Winning Percentage, R/S - Rest of the Season
Divisions: NLE - NL East, NLC - NL Central, NLW - NL West, ALE - AL East, ALC - AL Central, ALW - AL West

StatMan Contender Index: Week of August 22nd, 2011

The StatMan Contender Index is an index that looks at a team's remaining schedule, its standing, and the number of remaining games in the season to determine how much of a chance the team has of making the playoffs.  It is on a scale from 0 to 1 with a higher number meaning a greater chance of making the playoffs. Click here for the explanation of the StatMan Contender Index (SCI).

#  Team SCI (Change/Last week) - W-L, WPCT - Standing in Division, number of games ahead or back (week) - WPCT for rest of season/WPCT for next two weeks (8/22-9/4)
1. Philadelphia .8404 (+.1269) - 81-44, .648 (3-4) - 1st in NL East, 6.5 GA - .500/.467 (Last week: 1)
2. Milwaukee .6495 (+.0764) - 76-52, 594 (6-1) - 1st in NL Central, 8.5 GA - .484/.443 (LW: 4)
3. Atlanta .6270 (+.1036) - 76-52, .594 (6-1) - 2nd in NL East, 6.5 GB - .502/.462 (NLWC Leader) (LW: 7)
4. NY Yankees .6209 (-.0091) - 77-48, .616 (5-2) - 1st in AL East, 0.5 GA - .497/.479 (LW: 2)
5. Boston - .5745 (-.0290) - 77-49, .611 (4-3) - 2nd in AL East, 0.5 GB - .521/.553 (LW: 3)
6. San Francisco .5425 (+.0126) - 68-60, .531 (2-5) - 2nd in NL West, 1.5 GB - .458/.433 (LW: 6)
7. Arizona .5397 (+.0211) - 69-58, .543 (1-5) - 1st in NL West, 1.5 GA - .476/.486 (LW: 9)
8. Detroit .5373 (+.0030) - 68-58, .540 (4-2) - 1st in AL Central, 4.5 GA - .463/.480 (LW: 5)
9. Texas .5133 (-.0077) - 73-55, .570 (4-3) - 1st in AL West, 4 GA - .517/.581 (LW: 8)
10. LA Angels .4865 (+.0100) - 69-59, .539 (4-3) - 2nd in AL West, 4 GA - .483/.476 (LW: 12)
Other Local Teams:
25. NY Mets .2770 (-.0744) - 60-66, .476 (2-4) - 4th in NL East, 21.5 GB - .525/.537 (LW: 21)

Analysis: Philadelphia continues their march to a Red October, as their chances went up over 12.7%.  Most people would say the Phillies have a 100% chance of making the playoffs.  But, the Braves picked up three games on the Phillies, as did the Brewers in the quest for the best record in the National League.  The second biggest jump (10.4%) belongs to Atlanta, who is now eight games ahead in the Wild Card race.  San Francisco is the team with the best SCI which does not to have a division lead or a Wild Card lead.  The Giants are ranked higher than Arizona based on their opponents the rest of the way.  Another race that seemingly got a bit tighter, though it really did not, is in the American League West, where Texas dropped a smidge in the SCI and the Angels gained a percentage point in their quest to stay alive in the playoff hunt.

StatMan Contender Index: Week of August 15th, 2011

The StatMan Contender Index is an index that looks at a team's remaining schedule, its standing, and the number of remaining games in the season to determine how much of a chance the team has of making the playoffs.  It is on a scale from 0 to 1 with a higher number meaning a greater chance of making the playoffs. Click here for the explanation of the StatMan Contender Index (SCI).

#  Team CI - W-L, WPCT - Standing in Division, number of games ahead or back - WPCT for rest of season/WPCT for next two weeks (8/15-8/28)
1. Philadelphia .7135 - 78-41, .655 - 1st in NL East, 9 GA - .502/.498
2. NY Yankees .6300 - 72-46, .610 - 2nd in AL East, 0.5 GB - .485/.422 (ALWC Leader)
3. Boston - .6036 - 73-46, .613 - 1st in AL East, 0.5 GA - .509/.487
4. Milwaukee .5731 - 70-51, .579 - 1st in NL Central, 5 GA - .483/.463
5. Detroit .5343 - 64-56, .533 - 1st in AL Central, 2.5 GA - .466/.486
6. San Francisco .5299 - 66-55, .545 - 2nd in NL West, 2 GB - .457/.415
6. Atlanta .5234 - 70-51, .579 - 2nd in NL East, 9 GB - .515/.505 (NLWC Leader)
7. Texas .5210 - 69-52, .570 - 1st in AL West, 4 GA - .517/.551
8. Arizona .5186 - 68-53, .562 - 1st in NL West, 2 GA - .494/.534
9. Cleveland .4967 - 60-57, .513 - 2nd in AL Central, 2.5 GB - .480/.471
10. Chicago White Sox .4768 - 60-60, .500 - 3rd in AL Central, 4 GB - .487/.512
Other Local Teams:
21. NY Mets .3514 - 58-62, .483 - 58-62, .483 - 3rd in NL East, 11.5 GB - .524/.564

Analysis: The strongest teams of the league are in the top three, as the Phillies, Yankees, and Red Sox are the three best teams.  The Yankees get a bit of a leg up because of the relative ease of the remaining schedule compared to the Red Sox. The Giants are the top team which would not qualify for a playoff spot if the season were to end today.  San Francisco even ranks ahead of the team in first place in its division, Arizona.  The Giants have a .457 opposing winning percentage the rest of the way compared to .494 for the Diamondbacks' opponents.