Saturday, January 26, 2013

Conference Championship Weekend NFL Picks

PLAYOFF POSITIONAL RANKINGS

Here are our rankings for the players in action this week.  The best four teams are left and we rank the featured players at each position.  For some teams, they may have a second running back or third wide receiver that is notable, so I may include them as well.  First, here is a recap of our positional rankings from the Divisional weekend and the scoring for our game:

POSITIONAL RANKINGS – Scoring
Matching rank (predicted rank = actual rank) – 10 points (5 if score is tied with another player)
Placing rank –
All but WR: 0-6 points based on this formula: (21-(predicted rank))-(21-(# of ranked players)+(actual rank)) (0 points if this is a negative number)
Example: QB predicted to rank 1st, but actually ranked 4th: (21-1)-(21-8+4) = 3 points
WR: 0-7.5 points based on above formula and divided by 2 because of 2x the amount of players ranked
Example: WR predicted to rank 1st, but actually ranked 4th: ((21-1)-(21-16+4))/2 = 5.5 points

QUARTERBACK RESULTS – Divisional Weekend
Player
StatMan Rank
Actual Rank
FPTS
Score
Others (FPTS)
Tom Brady NE
1
4
29
3

Peyton Manning DEN
2
T-6
24
0

Aaron Rodgers GBY
3
8
20
0

Russell Wilson SEA
4
3
37
1

Matt Schaub HOU
5
5
25
10

Colin Kaepernick SFO
6
1
58
1

Joe Flacco BAL
7
2
40
0

Matt Ryan ATL
8
T-6
24
0

QB TOTAL



15


RUNNING BACK RESULTS – Divisional Weekend
Player
StatMan Rank
Actual Rank
FPTS
Score
Others (FPTS)
Marshawn Lynch SEA
1
7
10
1
Turbin (4)
Arian Foster HOU
2
1
25
6
Casey (2)
Frank Gore SFO
3
2
19
4
Dixon (4), James (2)
Knowshon Moreno DEN
4
T-4
13
6
Hillman (10), Hester (1)
Ray Rice BAL
5
3
17
1
Pierce (1)
DuJuan Harris GBY
6
6
12
10

Danny Woodhead NE
7
9
0
0

Michael Turner ATL
8
8
9
10
Rodgers (6), Snelling (6)
Stevan Ridley NE
9
T-4
13
0
Vereen (32)
RB TOTAL



38


WIDE RECEIVER RESULTS – Divisional Weekend
Player
StatMan Rank
Actual Rank
FPTS
Score
Others (FPTS)
Eric Decker DEN
1
10
8
3.0
Stokley (8)
Demaryius Thomas DEN
2
T-8
9
3.5

Andre Johnson HOU
3
7
11
3.5
Posey (12)
Brandon Lloyd NE
4
T-11
7
1.0

James Jones GBY
5
5
14
13.5

Julio Jones ATL
6
14
5
0.0
Douglas (2)
Michael Crabtree SFO
7
2
23
4.0

Roddy White ATL
8
4
17
2.5

Wes Welker NE
9
6
13
1.0

Greg Jennings GBY
10
T-8
9
0.0

Anquan Boldin BAL
11
T-11
7
5.0

Jordy Nelson GBY
12
15
4
0.0
Cobb (4), Ross (-1)
Golden Tate SEA
13
3
18
0.5

Randy Moss SFO
14
16
2
0.0

Torrey Smith BAL
15
1
27
0.5
Jones (17)
Kevin Walter HOU
16
17
1
0.0

Sidney Rice SEA
17
13
6
0.0

WR TOTAL



38


TIGHT END RESULTS – Divisional Weekend
Player
StatMan Rank
Actual Rank
FPTS
Score
Others (FPTS)
Rob Gronkowski NE
1
10
0
0

Tony Gonzalez ATL
2
3
15
5
Coffman (2)
Owen Daniels HOU
3
2
17
5
Graham (3)
Aaron Hernandez NE
4
4
14
12

Delanie Walker SFO
5
9
2
0

Dennis Pitta BAL
6
5
8
0
Dickson (5)
Jacob Tamme DEN
7
T-6
7
0
Dreessen (10)
Zach Miller SEA
8
1
26
1

Vernon Davis SFO
9
8
5
0

Jermichael Finley GBY
10
T-6
7
0

TE TOTAL



23


KICKER RESULTS – Divisional Weekend
Player
StatMan Rank
Actual Rank
FPTS
Score
Others (FPTS)
Matt Prater DEN
1
7
5
0

Stephen Gostkowski NE
2
2
13
14

Justin Tucker BAL
3
T-4
10
1

Shayne Graham HOU
4
3
11
1

Matt Bryant ATL
5
1
16
2

Ryan Longwell SEA
6
8
4
0

David Akers SFO
7
T-4
10
0

Mason Crosby GBY
8
6
8
0

K TOTAL



18


DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS RESULTS – Divisional Weekend
Player
StatMan Rank
Actual Rank
FPTS
Score
Others (FPTS)
Seattle Seahawks SEA
1
T-6
2
1

New England Patriots NE
2
T-6
2
0

Denver Broncos DEN
3
T-1
14
4

Houston Texans HOU
4
8
1
0

Baltimore Ravens BAL
5
T-1
14
2

Green Bay Packers GBY
6
3
12
0

San Francisco 49ers SFO
7
4
6
0

Atlanta Falcons ATL
8
5
4
0

DEF TOTAL



7


TOTAL RESULTS (through Divisional Weekend)
Position
Wild Card
Divisional
Conf. Champ.
Super Bowl
TOTAL
QUARTERBACK
31
15


46
RUNNING BACK
17
38


55
WIDE RECEIVER
39
38


77
TIGHT END
31
23


54
KICKER
21
18


39
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
31
7


38
TOTAL
170
139


309

QUARTERBACK RANKINGS – Conference Championship
1. Colin Kaepernick SFO
2. Tom Brady NE
3. Joe Flacco BAL
4. Matt Ryan ATL

QB notes: Consider me a believer in Colin Kaepernick.  He can run and he can pass.  A 58-point effort is a playoff all-timer, as his QB-record 181 rushing yards would attest.

RUNNING BACK RANKINGS – Conference Championship
1. Frank Gore SFO
2. Ray Rice BAL
3. Stevan Ridley NE
4. Jacquizz Rodgers ATL

RB notes: Frank Gore was my top-ranked running back from last week who advanced.  Rodgers gets the ranking over Michael Turner because he can receive out of the backfield.

WIDE RECEIVER RANKINGS – Conference Championship
1. Michael Crabtree SFO
2. Julio Jones ATL
3. Torrey Smith BAL
4. Wes Welker NE
5. Roddy White ATL
6. Brandon Lloyd NE
7. Anquan Boldin BAL
8. Randy Moss SFO

WR notes: Torrey Smith gets the biggest bump, going from 15th out of 17 receivers last week to third out of eight this week.  No third receivers were ranked this week.

TIGHT ENDS RANKINGS – Conference Championship
1. Aaron Hernandez NE
2. Tony Gonzalez ATL
3. Dennis Pitta BAL
4. Delanie Walker SFO

TE notes: Rob Gronkowski is out for the rest of the playoffs, so Hernandez’s stock goes up even more.  For the second week in a row, a New England tight end tops the list.

KICKER RANKINGS – Conference Championship
1. Justin Tucker BAL
2. David Akers SFO
3. Stephen Gostkowski NE
4. Matt Bryant ATL

K notes: The home dome kicker is at the bottom of my rankings for this week and I am predicting some redemption for Baltimore’s kicker in New England after last season’s failure.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS RANKINGS – Conference Championship
1. Baltimore Ravens BAL
2. San Francisco 49ers SFO
3. New England Patriots NE
4. Atlanta Falcons ATL

DST notes: The Ravens defense and special teams has improved since the regular season ended, while the Falcons defense will have to contend with a steady diet of San Francisco’s rushing offense.

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PICKS


Playoff Pick Results:
Last Week: 1-3 straight up, 2-2 against the spread
Playoffs: 5-3 straight up, 5-3 against the spread

San Francisco at Atlanta (+4) – Straight Up: San Francisco, Against the Spread: San Francisco
Atlanta has made it farther than last year.  Matt Ryan is tasting some playoff success and the Falcons are trying to get to their first Super Bowl since the “Dirty Bird” Falcons of Jamal Anderson and Chris Chandler.  Standing in their way is the San Francisco 49ers, which are trying to get to their sixth Super Bowl.  After reaching the NFC title game last year with Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick is at the helm full-time and has had a wonderful playoff.  Kaepernick and the 49ers’ main rusher, Frank Gore, will be able to run on the Falcons, and I think San Francisco wins by double digits here.

Predicted Score: SFO 38, ATL 28

Baltimore at New England (-7.5) – Straight Up: Baltimore, Against the Spread: Baltimore
Revenge. This is a rematch of the AFC title game last season, when former Raven wide receiver Lee Evans dropped an easy touchdown pass and former Raven kicker Billy Cundiff missed a 32-yard field goal wide left.  The Patriots survived, 23-20, and lost to the Giants in last year’s Super Bowl.  Evans and Cundiff are gone and replacing Cundiff is a rookie kicker who has been very successful on clutch kicks, Justin Tucker.  He was a shade under 91% on field goals this year and made both of his playoff field goals so far.  I think it will come down to the kicking game again, but this time, the Ravens will ride Tucker to help Ray Lewis continue his last ride right into the Super Bowl.

Predicted Score: BAL 35, NE 34

NFL.com PLAYOFF CHALLENGE

We are participating in the NFL.com Playoff Challenge, using our weekly rankings to pick our teams.  This is a different game than the ESPN.com Gridiron Challenge in that you do not have to adhere to a salary cap.  You are picking the top players at each position (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) and see how they score in that week’s playoff games.  If the players you picked last week are still alive, their points are worth twice as much, so if other options are only marginally better, it makes sense to keep them in your lineup.

Playoff Challenge Results:
Lineup
Wild Card
Divisional
Conf. Champ.
Super Bowl
TOTAL
QB
A. Rodgers GBY – 15
A. Rodgers GBY – 36 (18 x 2)
C. Kaepernick SFO (at ATL)

51
RB1
A. Peterson MIN – 9
M. Lynch SEA – 11
F. Gore SFO (at ATL)

20
RB2
A. Foster HOU – 23
A. Foster HOU – 54 (27 x 2)
R. Rice BAL (vs SFO)

77
WR1
J. Nelson GBY – 5
A. Johnson HOU – 11
M. Crabtree SFO (at ATL)

16
WR2
A. Green CIN – 8
E. Decker DEN – 8
J. Jones ATL (vs SFO)

16
TE
O. Daniels HOU – 9
R. Gronkowski – 0
A. Hernandez NE (vs BAL)

9
K
J. Tucker BAL – 6
J. Tucker BAL – 16 (8 x 2)
J. Tucker BAL (3x)

22
DEF
Seahawks SEA – 12
Seahawks SEA – 6 (3 x 2)
49ers SFO (at ATL)

18
TOTAL
87 pts
142 pts


229

Catch me on "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesdays at 11pm ET and Saturdays at 11am ET. We'll break down these picks and look ahead to next week on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment, Saturday morning at 11am ET.

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