Sunday, November 28, 2010

Week 12 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 11 results in parentheses)
  • Picks - Straight Up: 98-62 (.616) (10-6 in Week 11)
  • Picks - Against The Spread: 79-74-7 (.516) (7-9 in Week 11)
  • Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 5 after Week 11 (7-4, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND, NO; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE)
  • Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 19-12-2 (.606) (2-1 in Week 11: QB (W, 8-3): M. Sanchez NYJ 30, M. Cassel KCY 18; RB (L, 5-4-2): C. Benson CIN 17, A. Foster HOU 20; WR (W, 6-5): N. Washington TEN 11, A. Boldin BAL 1)
WEEK 12 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
  • Locals: NYG (W vs. JAX), NYJ (vs. CIN), PHL (W at CHI), NE (W at DET)
  • Big Game Winners: GBY (at ATL), BAL (vs. TBY), SDG (at IND)
  • Other Winners: NO (at DAL), MIN (at WSH), HOU (vs. TEN), CLE (vs. CAR), PIT (at BUF), SEA (vs. KCY), OAK (vs. MIA), DEN (vs. STL), SFO (at ARZ)
Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
  • Locals: JAX (+7 at NYG), NYJ (-8.5 vs. CIN), PHL (-3 at CHI), NE (-6.5 at DET)
  • Big Game Covers: GBY (+1.5 at ATL), TBY (+7.5 at BAL), SDG (+3 at IND)
  • Other Covers: NO (-3.5 at DAL), MIN (+1 at WSH), TEN (+6.5 at HOU), CLE (-10 vs. CAR), PIT (-6.5 at BUF), SEA (+2 vs. KCY), OAK (+0.5 vs. MIA), DEN (-4 vs. STL), SFO (-1 at BUF)
Knockout Pool
  • Round 5: Pittsburgh (at Buffalo)
PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
  • QB: Start Eli Manning NYG (vs. JAX), Sit David Garrard JAX (at NYG)
  • RB: Start Marshawn Lynch SEA (vs. KCY), Sit Fred Jackson BUF (vs. PIT)
  • WR: Start Sidney Rice MIN (at WSH), Sit DeSean Jackson PHL (at CHI)
***

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#88) on Wednesday night, December 1st, at 9pm ET. We will preview the upcoming Jets-Patriots clash in Foxboro, review Week 12, and preview Week 13 around the NFL. In hockey, we will preview all of the local matchups in December. Plus, we will keep the Hot Stove fires burning with news and views on the baseball offseason.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"
Extra audio available at: http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Pride vs. Pinstripes

When Derek Jeter grew up, he was a Yankee fan. When the Yankees drafted him and nurtured him through their farm system, it was a dream come true. The Yankees made him proud and made him rich, to the tune of a reported $205 million over 15 seasons. The 10-year, $189 mega-deal is up and he wants to return. The Yankees want him back. So, what’s the problem?

Jeter wants to return at his price and the Yankees want him to return at their price. There doesn’t seem to be much of a gray area between both offers, at least for now. You can normally tell what happens during a negotiation by the way it is reported in the press. The negotiations have been public, but professional. Brian Cashman added some gas to the fire by tempting Jeter to test the market.

Cashman sounds like a car dealer so sure of the deal he has on the table, he encourages you to test drive other cars and confident you will return and take his deal. But, what Cashman fails to realize is there are 29 teams salivating right now. Everyone knows the Cashman’s proposal and every team is immediately checking their budget to see how much they can offer.
Forget what he is worth. That is no longer material because if it was, Jeter would be offered a 3-year, $30 million deal. The back-end of a larger term would not be good value for the money. It probably will not be the same as the rough time the Mets suffered with the final years of the Pedro Martinez deal.

But, if more years are offered by another team, the reason to getting Jeter would be the same as the Mets’ reasons for signing Pedro Martinez after the 2004 season. The Mets were trying to change a culture and propel themselves forward. Mission accomplished. There are 29 other teams out there that can look at that blueprint as a nice example to why overpaying for intangibles is a good idea. The bump at the gate and the merchandising revenue of a chase to 3,000 hits would more than make up for the extra millions shelled out to bring Jeter to town.

The pride of the player and the organization is at stake for the privilege to wear the pinstripes for the rest of Jeter’s career. The pride of Jeter was evident when he refused to cede the shortstop position to Alex Rodriguez when he came aboard in 2004. Rodriguez’s recent contract extension that takes him through 2017 and age 42 is also guiding Jeter here. The pride of Jeter is coming into play again in this case because he may perceive the three-year deal as a slap in the face if the Yankees did not extend him until 2016, which would be Jeter’s age-42 season. The current deal Cashman is proposing only takes Jeter to his 39th birthday.

Do I think a team will offer Jeter more than the 3-year, $45 million deal Cashman and the Yankees are proposing? No. Even if a team does, it would be tough for the Yankees not to at least match the deal, especially if the other suitor is the Red Sox or Mets.

So, for all of the posturing, bad press, and threats from Yankee fans about not attending games or watching games if Jeter is not on the team, rest easy. Jeter will be wearing number 2 and hitting second in the Yankee lineup come April.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

The Firing Line: November

In the wake of the firing of Minnesota Vikings coach Brad Childress, I thought of what the odds must have been after the Vikings were as limp as a wet dishrag against the rival Packers, 31-3, last Sunday. I thought it was even money, if not worse, that Childress would get the heave-ho. Childress was easy, but who will be next?

I would like to present this new monthly column, which will look at the odds that a coach in any of the three sports we cover on "Sports With The StatMan" will be canned in the next month.

COACHES ALREADY FIRED THIS SEASON

Wade Phillips – Dallas Cowboys (NFL) – Fired November 8th

Scott Gordon – New York Islanders (NHL) – Fired November 15th

Brad Childress – Minnesota Vikings (NFL) – Fired November 22nd

THE FIRING LINE – NOVEMBER

1. Marvin Lewis – Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) – 5-to-1

We saw the Cowboys give up after getting crunched by the Packers. We saw the Vikings exhale against the Packers. The Packers play Atlanta next and Mike Smith is not going anywhere. But, what other teams are giving up? The Bengals are at the top of the list. They are 2-8 after standing still while the Buffalo Bills scored 35 unanswered second-half points against the Bengals last Sunday. Terrell Owens called the team "terrible". If the Jets make Marvin Lewis's Bengals look bad on Thursday night, the move might be made before those doorbusters on Friday morning.

2. John MacLean – New Jersey Devils (NHL) – 10-to-1

The Devils shut out Washington at home on Monday night, 5-0, to win only their second game at home this season. This is considered an upswing for the Devils, a franchise that has symbolized stability and winning over the last decade-and-a-half. MacLean may get a little bit of a pass because he is a first-year head coach that paid his dues for the organization in Lowell, foregoing head coaching opportunities elsewhere to be a good company man. But, the patience with the fan base is wearing thin because bad patterns in the Devils play are evolving and coaching is supposed to stop that in its tracks. If the Devils fall backward again, MacLean could get the boot.

3. Gary Kubiak – Houston Texans (NFL) – 25-to-1

Watching the Texans trail the Jets, 23-7, heading into the fourth quarter last Sunday, one would think Kubiak's job was on brittle footing. The Texans had a great finish, even pulling ahead 27-23 with less than a minute left, but a loss is a loss. The Texans are 2-6 after a 2-0 start where they surprised the AFC defending Champion Colts and came from behind to score the last 20 points in a 30-27 overtime thriller at Washington. Houston has not won since their bye week (0-4) and the Texans defense has been atrocious, bleeding 30 points a game to the opposition. Kubiak saved his job with a 9-7 year in 2009, but I don't see that happening this time around.

4. John Fox – Carolina Panthers (NFL) – 50-to-1

The excuse for Carolina's awful 1-9 record has been injuries. The Panthers were down to their fourth-string quarterback in Brian St. Pierre against Baltimore. Matt Moore and Jimmy Claussen are out with injuries and rookie Tony Pike was not ready to start against the Ravens punishing defense. But, it is not just the passing game. The running game is in shambles, too. DeAngelo Williams is done for the year with a foot injury and the Jonathan Stewart is recovering from a concussion. With Steve Smith withering away, things are not finer in the state of Carolina. Fox will most likely last the season, but his days are definitely numbered.

5. Tom Renney – Edmonton Oilers (NHL) – 100-to-1

The Oilers were the worst team in hockey last year and garnered the first pick in this season's Entry Draft. But, Taylor Hall and Magnus Paajarvi has not started out well, while Jordan Eberle has put up some points and highlight-reel goals. It is one thing to say the personnel that Renney has had to work with is young and inexperienced. But, the Oilers have been hemorrhaging goals. Nikolai Khabibulin has been brutal (4-10-1, 4.07 GAA, .879 Save%). Edmonton has allowed the most goals in the NHL (77) and scored the second-fewest goals in the Western Conference (49), giving the Oilers have the worst goal differential in the NHL (minus-28). Due to the low expectations for the team, Renney will probably survive, but look at the Islanders, who canned Scott Gordon after 17 games despite finishing in 26th place last season.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Week 11 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 10 results in parentheses)
  • Picks - Straight Up: 88-56 (.611) (7-7 in Week 10)
  • Picks - Against The Spread: 72-65-7 (.524) (4-10 in Week 10)
  • Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 5 after Week 10 (6-4, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE)
  • Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 17-11-2 (.600) (2-0-1 in Week 10: QB (W, 7-3): D. Garrard JAX 36, B. Favre MIN 9; RB (T, 5-3-2): J. Charles KCY 18, F. Gore SFO 18; WR (W, 5-5): K. Walter HOU 15, S. Moss WSH 2)
WEEK 11 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
  • Locals: NYG (W at PHL), NYJ (W vs. HOU), PHL (L vs. NYG), NE (W vs. IND)
  • Big Game Winners: MIN (vs. GBY), PIT (vs. OAK), SFO (vs. TBY)
  • Other Winners: CHI (at MIA), CIN (vs. BUF), CLE (at JAX), TEN (vs. WSH), BAL (at CAR), KCY (vs. ARZ), DAL (vs. DET), ATL (at STL), NO (vs. SEA), SDG (vs. DEN)
Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
  • Locals: NYG (+3 at PHL), NYJ (-7 vs. HOU), NE (-3.5 vs. IND)
  • Big Game Covers: MIN (+3 vs. GBY), OAK (+7 at PIT), TBY (+3.5 at SFO)
  • Other Covers: CHI (+1.5 at MIA), BUF (+5.5 at CIN), CLE (+1.5 at JAX), TEN (-7 vs. WSH), BAL (-10 at CAR), KCY (-7.5 vs. ARZ), DET (+6.5 at DAL), ATL (-3 at STL), NO (-11.5 vs. SEA), DEN (+10 at SDG)
Knockout Pool
  • Round 5: New Orleans (vs. Seattle)
PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
QB: Start Mark Sanchez NYJ (vs. HOU), Sit Matt Cassel KCY (vs. ARZ)
RB: Start Cedric Benson CIN (vs. BUF), Sit Arian Foster HOU (at NYJ)
WR: Start Nate Washington TEN (vs. WSH), Sit Anquan Boldin BAL (at CAR)

***

There is no audio this week for the NFL Fantasy Update or the NFL Picks and Predictions. We'll return with that next week, but you can catch the audio from previous weeks on http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman.

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#87) on Friday night, November 26th, at 9pm ET. We will break down the Giants-Eagles NFC East showdown as well as the rest of Week 11 in the NFL. We will list the major free agents in baseball with our guesses on where they will land in 2011. And, in hockey, the Rangers and Flyers are fighting for the Atlantic, while the Devils and Islanders are fighting for the basement.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"
Extra audio available at: http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Week 10 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 9 results in parentheses)
  • Picks - Straight Up: 81-49 (.623) (12-1 in Week 10)
  • Picks - Against The Spread: 68-55-7 (.550) (7-5-1 in Week 9)
  • Knockout Pool - Dead in Round 4 after Week 9 (5-4, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE)
  • Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 15-11-1 (.574) (0-3 in Week 9: QB (L, 6-3): J. Freeman TBY 21, J. Flacco BAL 24; RB (L, 5-3-1): D. Sproles SDG 0, J. Best DET 8; WR (L, 4-5): B. Tate NE 1, D. Bowe KCY 12)
WEEK 10 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
  • Locals: NYG (W vs. DAL), NYJ (W at CLE), PHL (W at WSH), NE (L at PIT)
  • Big Game Winners: BAL (at ATL), TEN (at MIA), MIN (at CHI)
  • Other Winners: BUF (vs. DET), TBY (vs. CAR), IND (vs. CIN), HOU (at JAX), KCY (at DEN), SFO (vs. STL), ARZ (vs. SEA)
Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
  • Locals: NYG (-13.5 vs. DAL), NYJ (-3 at CLE), PHL (-3 at WSH), NE (+4.5 at PIT)
  • Big Game Covers: BAL (+1 at ATL), TEN (-2 at MIA), MIN (-1 at CHI)
  • Other Covers: BUF (-3 vs. DET), CAR (+7 at TBY), IND (-7 vs. CIN), HOU (+1.5 at JAX), KCY (-1 at DEN), STL (+6 at SFO), ARZ (-3 vs. SEA)
Knockout Pool
  • Round 5: Indianapolis (vs. Cincinnati)
PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
  • QB: Start David Garrard JAX (vs. HOU), Sit Brett Favre MIN (at CHI)
  • RB: Start Jamaal Charles KCY (at DEN), Sit Frank Gore SFO (vs. STL)
  • WR: Start Kevin Walter HOU (at JAX), Sit Santana Moss WSH (vs. PHL)
***

There is no audio this week for the NFL Fantasy Update or the NFL Picks and Predictions. We'll return with that next week, but you can catch the audio from previous weeks on http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman.

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#86) on Thursday evening, November 18th, at a special time, 7pm ET. Will the Jets and Patriots still be tied atop the AFC East? Can the Patriots avoid losing two in a row on the road on Sunday night at Pittsburgh? How bad of a beating will the Giants put on the demoralized Cowboys? We will also break down the list of free agents in baseball and we'll talk about how hot the surging Flyers are in hockey.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"
Extra audio available at: http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman

Sunday, November 7, 2010

Week 9 NFL Picks and Predictions

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 8 results in parentheses)
  • Picks - Straight Up: 69-48, .590 (10-3 in Week 8)
  • Picks - Against The Spread: 61-50-6, .547 (9-4 in Week 8)
  • Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 4 after Week 8 (5-3, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO)
  • Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 15-8-1 (.646) (0-3 in Week 8: QB (L, 6-2): J. Kitna DAL 12, T. Brady NE 19; RB (L, 5-2-1): J. Stewart CAR 3, M. Bush OAK 14; WR (L, 4-4): S. Johnson BUF 5, T. Owens CIN 18)

WEEK 9 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
  • Locals: NYG (W at SEA), NYJ (W at DET), PHL (W vs. IND), NE (W at CLE)
  • Big Game Winners: OAK (vs. KCY), BAL (vs. MIA), ATL (vs. TBY)
  • Other Winners: MIN (vs. ARZ), CHI (at BUF), SDG (at HOU), NO (at CAR), GBY (vs. DAL), PIT (at CIN)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
  • Locals: NYG (-6.5 at SEA), NYJ (-4 at DET), PHL (-3 vs. IND), NE (-4 at CLE)
  • Big Game Covers: OAK (-2 vs. KCY), MIA (+5 at BAL), TBY (+8.5 at ATL)
  • Other Covers: ARZ (+8 at MIN), CHI (-3 at BUF), SDG (-3 at HOU), NO (-6.5 at CAR), DAL (+7.5 at GBY), PIT (-4.5 at CIN)

Knockout Pool
Round 4: New England (at Cleveland)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
  • QB: Start Josh Freeman TBY (at ATL), Sit Joe Flacco BAL (vs. MIA)
  • RB: Start Darren Sproles SDG (at HOU), Sit Jahvid Best DET (vs. NYJ)
  • WR: Start Brandon Tate NE (at CLE), Sit Dwayne Bowe KCY (at OAK)

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