Monday, August 22, 2011

StatMan Contender Index: Week of August 22nd, 2011

The StatMan Contender Index is an index that looks at a team's remaining schedule, its standing, and the number of remaining games in the season to determine how much of a chance the team has of making the playoffs.  It is on a scale from 0 to 1 with a higher number meaning a greater chance of making the playoffs. Click here for the explanation of the StatMan Contender Index (SCI).

#  Team SCI (Change/Last week) - W-L, WPCT - Standing in Division, number of games ahead or back (week) - WPCT for rest of season/WPCT for next two weeks (8/22-9/4)
1. Philadelphia .8404 (+.1269) - 81-44, .648 (3-4) - 1st in NL East, 6.5 GA - .500/.467 (Last week: 1)
2. Milwaukee .6495 (+.0764) - 76-52, 594 (6-1) - 1st in NL Central, 8.5 GA - .484/.443 (LW: 4)
3. Atlanta .6270 (+.1036) - 76-52, .594 (6-1) - 2nd in NL East, 6.5 GB - .502/.462 (NLWC Leader) (LW: 7)
4. NY Yankees .6209 (-.0091) - 77-48, .616 (5-2) - 1st in AL East, 0.5 GA - .497/.479 (LW: 2)
5. Boston - .5745 (-.0290) - 77-49, .611 (4-3) - 2nd in AL East, 0.5 GB - .521/.553 (LW: 3)
6. San Francisco .5425 (+.0126) - 68-60, .531 (2-5) - 2nd in NL West, 1.5 GB - .458/.433 (LW: 6)
7. Arizona .5397 (+.0211) - 69-58, .543 (1-5) - 1st in NL West, 1.5 GA - .476/.486 (LW: 9)
8. Detroit .5373 (+.0030) - 68-58, .540 (4-2) - 1st in AL Central, 4.5 GA - .463/.480 (LW: 5)
9. Texas .5133 (-.0077) - 73-55, .570 (4-3) - 1st in AL West, 4 GA - .517/.581 (LW: 8)
10. LA Angels .4865 (+.0100) - 69-59, .539 (4-3) - 2nd in AL West, 4 GA - .483/.476 (LW: 12)
Other Local Teams:
25. NY Mets .2770 (-.0744) - 60-66, .476 (2-4) - 4th in NL East, 21.5 GB - .525/.537 (LW: 21)

Analysis: Philadelphia continues their march to a Red October, as their chances went up over 12.7%.  Most people would say the Phillies have a 100% chance of making the playoffs.  But, the Braves picked up three games on the Phillies, as did the Brewers in the quest for the best record in the National League.  The second biggest jump (10.4%) belongs to Atlanta, who is now eight games ahead in the Wild Card race.  San Francisco is the team with the best SCI which does not to have a division lead or a Wild Card lead.  The Giants are ranked higher than Arizona based on their opponents the rest of the way.  Another race that seemingly got a bit tighter, though it really did not, is in the American League West, where Texas dropped a smidge in the SCI and the Angels gained a percentage point in their quest to stay alive in the playoff hunt.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

My Two Cents: Jim Thome's 600th Home Run

We have a new feature on the Random Musings blog: My Two Cents. This feature is a series of blog posts that will serve as quick reactions to topical sports news. The blog posts will be quick bursts of thought of under 500 words, meant to give you my opinion quickly instead of waiting for the next Sports With The StatMan show. Sometimes, it will be a reaction to a sports column or a reaction to something that happens on or off the field. I hope you enjoy it and feel free to leave a comment after this post to let me know what you think.

The Story: Jim Thome’s 600th Home Run On August 15th, Jim Thome hit two homers, robbing baseball of covering every at-bat for a few days, as he smashed his 599th and 600th homers in consecutive at-bats as the Twins defeated the Tigers in Detroit, 9-6.

My Two Cents:
Jim Thome is one of the good guys in baseball, every bit as much as Derek Jeter, who hit a career milestone this year as well with his 3,000th hit.  Thome has been every bit as quiet and every bit as gentlemanly.  And, with all of the whispers of steroids around baseball for the better part of the past two decades, Thome and Jeter had one more thing in common: they reportedly did it clean.

A look at Thome's career statistics shows the five teams on which he played.  He played on two World Series teams, but his Indians lost in 1995 to the Braves and in 1997 to the Marlins.  He rose to prominence with Cleveland and his latest feat was in Minnesota.  For all of the highlights I have seen of Jim Thome's career since last night, I have not seen any highlight of Thome in a Phillies uniform.  If you overlook Jim Thome in a Phillies uniform, you are overlooking the start of an unparallel Phillies run, the likes of which the franchise has never seen.

I remember the 2002-03 offseason when Thome was a free agent. He took a meeting with the Phillies' front office and it was a joke.  I mean, Thome signing with the Phillies?  It was a pipe dream.  Yes, the Phillies overpaid on a huge 6-year, $85 million deal, but the fact that any top free agent was willing to sign with Philadelphia was news.  This is not the 4-time defending National League East Champion Phillies, not the 2008 World Series Champion Phillies.  These were the Scott Rolen, Mike Lieberthal, Doug Glanville, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla, and Bobby Abreu Phillies.  Travis Lee was the incumbent first baseman.  When he was traded to Chicago after the 2005 season, in which he sustained a season-ending elbow injury, Ryan Howard took over.  He was also the bridge between Larry Bowa and Charlie Manuel, Marlon Anderson and Chase Utley, and Jose Mesa and Ryan Madson.

But, he was more than a bridge.  Much like what he helped accomplished in Cleveland, he was part of a rebirth of a franchise.  The sad-sack Indians turned into perennial playoff entrants.  The Phillies won 86 games in his first season in South Philly (2003), 86 the next year, and 88 the final year, of which he did not have that much to contribute because of his injury.  But, by then, the Phillies were a different team.

You can, and should, give a lot of credit to Bowa, Rolen, Abreu, Jimmy Rollins, and Pat Burrell.  The Phillies were far from baseball royalty when Thome signed his big deal with Philadelphia.  He provided the big piece to give the Phillies league-wide credibility from other teams and other free agents.  Would recent free agents like Cliff Lee sign with the Phillies?  Maybe not, and the Phillies may not be the current team you see running away with the National League East, playing to packed houses on a nightly basis.

StatMan Contender Index: Week of August 15th, 2011

The StatMan Contender Index is an index that looks at a team's remaining schedule, its standing, and the number of remaining games in the season to determine how much of a chance the team has of making the playoffs.  It is on a scale from 0 to 1 with a higher number meaning a greater chance of making the playoffs. Click here for the explanation of the StatMan Contender Index (SCI).

#  Team CI - W-L, WPCT - Standing in Division, number of games ahead or back - WPCT for rest of season/WPCT for next two weeks (8/15-8/28)
1. Philadelphia .7135 - 78-41, .655 - 1st in NL East, 9 GA - .502/.498
2. NY Yankees .6300 - 72-46, .610 - 2nd in AL East, 0.5 GB - .485/.422 (ALWC Leader)
3. Boston - .6036 - 73-46, .613 - 1st in AL East, 0.5 GA - .509/.487
4. Milwaukee .5731 - 70-51, .579 - 1st in NL Central, 5 GA - .483/.463
5. Detroit .5343 - 64-56, .533 - 1st in AL Central, 2.5 GA - .466/.486
6. San Francisco .5299 - 66-55, .545 - 2nd in NL West, 2 GB - .457/.415
6. Atlanta .5234 - 70-51, .579 - 2nd in NL East, 9 GB - .515/.505 (NLWC Leader)
7. Texas .5210 - 69-52, .570 - 1st in AL West, 4 GA - .517/.551
8. Arizona .5186 - 68-53, .562 - 1st in NL West, 2 GA - .494/.534
9. Cleveland .4967 - 60-57, .513 - 2nd in AL Central, 2.5 GB - .480/.471
10. Chicago White Sox .4768 - 60-60, .500 - 3rd in AL Central, 4 GB - .487/.512
Other Local Teams:
21. NY Mets .3514 - 58-62, .483 - 58-62, .483 - 3rd in NL East, 11.5 GB - .524/.564

Analysis: The strongest teams of the league are in the top three, as the Phillies, Yankees, and Red Sox are the three best teams.  The Yankees get a bit of a leg up because of the relative ease of the remaining schedule compared to the Red Sox. The Giants are the top team which would not qualify for a playoff spot if the season were to end today.  San Francisco even ranks ahead of the team in first place in its division, Arizona.  The Giants have a .457 opposing winning percentage the rest of the way compared to .494 for the Diamondbacks' opponents.

Introducing: The StatMan Contender Index

I would like to introduce a new metric in trying to predict which Major League Baseball team will make the playoffs during a baseball season. It is a quick look on a team's postseason chances and reduces it to a number. You can use the actual number or turn it into a percentage by multiplying the number by 100.  It is called the StatMan Contender Index (SCI) and takes the following information into account:

* Strength of remaining schedule, determined by the winning percentage of a team's opposition
* Magic numbers and elimination numbers for the division and Wild Card
* Games remaining for the regular season

The percentages between all contenders do not add up to 100%.  It may also seem that a team which is "out of the race" still seems to have a significant chance of qualifying for the playoffs.  In these cases, it is best to evaluate  a poor team's SCI with the SCI of its main competition for the division or the Wild Card.

We hope you enjoy this metric. Over time, if we can, we will look to refine it and add a little more complexity to improve its accuracy.

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

My Two Cents: The Nassau Coliseum Referendum

We are starting a new feature on the Random Musings blog: My Two Cents. This feature will be a series of blog posts that will serve as quick reactions to topical sports news. The blog posts will be quick bursts of thought of under 500 words, meant to give you my opinion quickly instead of waiting for the next Sports With The StatMan show. Sometimes, it will be a reaction to a sports column or a reaction to something that happens on or off the field. I hope you enjoy it and feel free to leave a comment after this post to let me know what you think.

The Story: The Nassau Coliseum Referendum

On August 1st, voters in Nassau County went to the polls to determine if the County can borrow up to $400 million, $350 million of which would be dedicated to a new arena right next to the current Nassau Coliseum. If the vote passes, the Nassau County legislature approves the vote with a supermajority, and if the Nassau Interim Finance Authority (NIFA) approves the deal, the new arena would keep the Islanders in Nassau County for the next 30 years.

According to the Nassau County Board of Elections website tonight, the referendum was voted down by a 57%-43% margin.

My Two Cents:
In a word: disgraceful. If this was a hockey game, the Nassau County politicians would be up by so many goals on Charles Wang and the Islanders, that sumo wrestler Wang thought of signing would be tending goal. Wang was the convenient pawn in the political game between the likes of Kate Murray, Ed Mangano, and Jay Jacobs. He was played by both sides when the Lighthouse Project and this current option was shot down, though this one was shot down a little more democratically.  Either way, the Islanders, the citizens of Nassau County, and the progress of the County all lost.

If Wang tries to make things work in Nassau County ever again, he deserves to get played again. Now is the time to make a deal to keep the team in the New York area and leave Nassau County behind. Nassau County used to be progressive. The county used to be a beacon for suburban life. Now, it is woefully behind the times, as its aging population will eventually turn the county into a 453-square mile nursing home.

So, my advice to Wang: peddle the Islanders to Queens, Brooklyn, or Suffolk County and get the best deal you can. You have lost enough money. Nassau County has given you too many gray hairs. You can still keep them in the area, but take them out of Nassau County. Nassau County does not deserve a major-league franchise. The politics have sent the Islanders to the brink in Nassau and the voters just pushed them over the edge. But, that does not mean the Isles are destined for Quebec City, Kansas City, or Hamilton.

Queens has the infrastructure, there is an arena being built for the Nets in Brooklyn, and Suffolk County is now home to many Islander supporters who used to live in Nassau County before they were fed up.  Any one of these choices are better than Nassau County. The county never sprung for improvements of their building. The county never installed a rail line. The county never really loved you back, so why bother trying to stay in a place that clearly does not want you?

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