Sunday, December 1, 2013

NFL 2013: Week 13 Picks

Week 12 was a tough one in just about every measurable area.  We lost our Knockout pick, we were 5-9 picking winners and not much better (6-8) against the spread.  On the slim plus side, the Start ‘Em Team won its sixth in a row to move to 8-4 on the season.  But, that was it and we start December on a low point.

JOIN US!

It is never too late to join and see how you measure up against me and other listeners who participate.  You can enter your picks and join the groups I created for the show.  The winner will be touted on the Saturday show and, if you top the charts, you could even call in to give me your picks!  Here is how:

Game
Goal
Where to Play
Group to Join
Eliminator Challenge
Pick 1 winner per week, no repeat picks (a.k.a. Knockout Pool)
Pigskin Pick’Em (Straight Up)
Pick a winner for each game, every week
Pigskin Pick’Em (Against the Spread)
Pick a winner against the point spread for each game, every week
NFL Gridiron Challenge
Pick a team of players with a $50 million salary cap

KNOCKOUT POOL/ESPN.com ELIMINATOR CHALLENGE

It is time to stop underestimating Tampa Bay.  They have some talent and they believe in their coach (again).  Also, it is probably a good idea not to overestimate Detroit, even at home.  We did both and got burned in Week 12 in the Knockout Pool, lowering our record to 8-4, as the Bucs beat the Lions, 24-21.

This week’s pick: Dallas defeating Oakland

An early pick this week as we are offering our Knockout Pool pick on the middle game on Thanksgiving.  I would love to know the record of teams with minimal national coverage playing on Thanksgiving in a nationally-televised game on the road.  That is the situation for Oakland and they have a short week besides.  Oakland lost to Tennessee and, although they are still mathematically alive for the playoffs at 4-7, I think any playoff hopes are just about gone.  I am going with the Cowboys at home.

PAST PICKS
Week 1: Tampa Bay (L at NYJ)
Week 2: Cincinnati (W vs. PIT)
Week 3: Minnesota (L vs. CLE)
Week 4: Indianapolis (W at JAX)
Week 5: St. Louis (W vs. JAX)
Week 6: Denver (W vs. JAX)
Week 7: Green Bay (W vs. CLE)
Week 8: New Orleans (W vs. BUF)
Week 9: Seattle (W vs. TBY)
Week 10: Tennessee (L vs. JAX)
Week 11: N.Y. Giants (W vs. GBY)
Week 12: Detroit (L vs. TBY)

GAME PICKS/ESPN.com PIGSKIN PICK ‘EM

Here are the game picks for this week.  We talk about the local games and the three of the other most important games, our “Big Games”, on our weekly This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Saturdays, but we pick every game, every week here on the blog.  New this year is the listing of our Preseason picks we made for our NFL Preview series on the show.  This will give you an idea on what I thought of each team before the season and what I am thinking of each team during the season.

ALL GAMES

RESULTS
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Preseason SU
SEASON
101-75 (.574)
74-102 (.420)
99-77 (.563)
LAST WEEK (Week 12)
5-9
6-8
4-10

LOCAL GAMES

RESULTS
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Preseason SU
SEASON
20-20
14-26
19-21
LAST WEEK (Week 12)
1-2
1-2
1-2
WEEK 13 LOCAL GAME PICKS
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Preseason SU
Miami at N.Y. Jets (Sunday 1pm)
NYJ
NYJ (-1.5)
MIA
Arizona at Philadelphia (Sunday 1pm)
PHL
PHL (-3.5)
PHL
New England at Houston (Sunday 1pm)
NE
NE (-8.5)
NE
N.Y. Giants at Washington (Sunday night)
WSH
WSH (+1.5)
WSH

BIG GAMES

RESULTS
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Preseason SU
SEASON
19-18
16-21
18-19
LAST WEEK (Week 12)
2-2
1-3
1-3
WEEK 13 BIG GAME PICKS
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Preseason SU
Green Bay at Detroit (Thursday 12:30pm)
DET
GBY (+5.5)
GBY
Denver at Kansas City (Sunday 4pm)
DEN
KCY (+4.5)
DEN
New Orleans at Seattle (Monday night)
SEA
NO (+5.5)
SEA

OTHER GAMES

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Preseason SU
SEASON
66-37
46-57
64-39
LAST WEEK (Week 12)
5-5
5-5
4-6
WEEK 13 OTHER GAME PICKS
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Preseason SU
Oakland at Dallas (Thursday 4:30pm)
DAL
OAK (+9.5)
DAL
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Thursday night)
BAL
BAL (-2.5)
BAL
Tampa Bay at Carolina (Sunday 1pm)
CAR
TBY (+8.5)
CAR
Jacksonville at Cleveland (Sunday 1pm)
CLE
JAX (+7.5)
CLE
Tennessee at Indianapolis (Sunday 1pm)
IND
TEN (+4.5)
IND
Chicago at Minnesota (Sunday 1pm)
CHI
CHI (+0.5)
MIN
Atlanta at Buffalo (Sunday 4pm)
BUF
BUF (-3.5)
ATL
St. Louis at San Francisco (Sunday 4pm)
SFO
STL (+9.5)
SFO
Cincinnati at San Diego (Sunday 4pm)
CIN
CIN (+1.5)
SDG

START ‘EM/ANTI-START ‘EM/ESPN.com GRIDIRON CHALLENGE

We are participating in the ESPN Gridiron Challenge on ESPN.com again this season.  The object is to pick the best team possible with a $50 million salary cap.  The salary cap moves up if the value of your players increases.  However, we have added another wrinkle.  The object of the ESPN.com is to buy low and sell high and the more you accomplish that, the more money you get in your salary cap.  My goal is to put together a nine-man unit (2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) that is better than another nine-man unit at a similar price.

Six in a row now for the Start ‘Em Team against the Anti-Start ‘Em Team and the winning continued on a 126-101 win in Week 12.  It was the lone bright spot in all of our games.  During the six-game winning streak, the average score has been 133 to 103.  The high scorer on either side was the Anti-Start ‘Ems Philip Rivers, who outscored his opposite number on the Start ‘Em side, Mike Glennon, 39-23.  Big wins by Jamaal Charles (27-5 over Alfred Morris) and Rob Gronkowski (17-2 over Charles Clay) more than made up the difference.

WEEK 1: Head-to-Head – L, 100-137; By Position: 2-7
WEEK 2: Head-to-Head – L, 86-116; By Position: 3-5-1
WEEK 3: Head-to-Head – W, 114-95; By Position: 6-3
WEEK 4: Head-to-Head – W, 118-48; By Position: 7-2
WEEK 5: Head-to-Head – L, 116-128; By Position: 6-2-1
WEEK 6: Head-to-Head – L, 81-102; By Position: 4-5
WEEK 7: Head-to-Head – W, 125-94; By Position: 5-3-1
WEEK 8: Head-to-Head – W, 117-86; By Position: 5-4
WEEK 9: Head-to-Head – W, 181-165; By Position: 5-2-2
WEEK 10: Head-to-Head – W, 119-61; By Position: 6-3
WEEK 11: Head-to-Head – W, 129-112; By Position: 5-3-1
WEEK 12: Head-to-Head – W, 126-101; By Position: 5-3-1
SEASON: 8-4 W-L (.667), 1412 PF, 1245 PA (53.1% of points), 59-42-7 by position (.579)

Here is the Week 12 entry in the Gridrion Challenge, our “Start ‘Em” team, along with our comparable “Anti-Start ‘Em” team, which is our “opponent” for the week.

 (all dollar figures in millions)

Start ‘Em Team

POS

Anti-Start ‘Em Team

Russell Wilson SEA ($6.5)
QB
Philip Rivers SDG ($6.4)
Case Keenum HOU ($5.5)
QB
Matt Ryan ATL ($6.1)
LeSean McCoy PHL ($7.7)
RB
Matt Forte CHI ($7.5)
C.J. Spiller BUF ($5.7)
RB
Stevan Ridley NE ($6.4)
Brandon Marshall CHI ($7.3)
WR
Pierre Garcon WSH ($6.2)
Rueben Randle NYG ($5.2)
WR
Steve Smith CAR ($5.6)
Jordan Cameron CLE ($5.2)
TE
Jared Cook STL ($5.1)
Dan Carpenter BUF ($4.4)
K
Garrett Hartley NO ($4.6)
St. Louis Rams STL ($5)
DEF
Kansas City Chiefs KCY ($6)
$52.5 million

$53.9 million


Catch me on "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesdays at 11pm ET and Saturdays at 11am ET. We'll break down these picks and look ahead to next week on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment, Saturday morning at 11am ET.

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