Sunday, October 28, 2012

Week 8 NFL Picks

KNOCKOUT POOL/ESPN.com ELIMINATOR CHALLENGE

We made it 7-for-7 last week with a win for Minnesota over Arizona. There are about 10,000 left in the ESPN.com Eliminator Challenge, but we are one of those 10,000.

This week’s pick: Green Bay defeating Jacksonville

When Green Bay gets rolling, they are a good pick.  When they play at home against a Jacksonville team that is going to miss its best player, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, it is as close to a lock as possible.  The only question is whether we want to use Green Bay now instead of later in the season.  But, there were no picks I felt nearly as good about compared to this game, so it will be the Packers.

PAST PICKS
Week 1: Houston (W vs. MIA)
Week 2: N.Y. Giants (W vs. TBY)
Week 3: Chicago (W vs. STL)
Week 4: Baltimore (W vs. CLE)
Week 5: San Francisco (W vs. BUF)
Week 6: N.Y. Jets (W vs. IND)
Week 7: Minnesota (W vs. ARZ)

GAME PICKS/ESPN.com PIGSKIN PICK ‘EM

Here are the game picks for this week.  We also have a “Sports With the StatMan” entry in the ESPN.com Pigskin Pick ‘Em for games against the spread.  We talk about the local games and the three of the other most important games, our “Big Games”, on our weekly This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Saturdays, but we pick every game, every week here on the blog.  Here they are:

LOCAL GAMES

Last Week: 2-0 straight up, 1-1 against the spread
Season: 17-8 straight up, 15-9-1 against the spread

Week 8 Picks:
New England vs. St. Louis (in London) – Straight Up: NE, Against the Spread: NE (-6.5)
N.Y. Giants at Dallas – Straight Up: NYG, Against the Spread: NYG (-1.5)
Miami at N.Y. Jets – Straight Up: NYJ, Against the Spread: NYJ (-2.5)
Atlanta at Philadelphia – Straight Up: PHL, Against the Spread: PHL (-2.5)

BIG GAMES

Last Week: 3-0 straight up, 1-2 against the spread
Season: 18-4 straight up, 13-9 against the spread

Week 8 Picks:
Washington at Pittsburgh – Straight Up: PIT, Against the Spread: WSH (+5.5)
New Orleans at Denver – Straight Up: DEN, Against the Spread: NO (+6.5)
San Francisco at Arizona – Straight Up: SFO, Against the Spread: ARZ (+6.5)

OTHER GAMES

Last Week: 7-1 straight up, 6-2 against the spread
Season: 32-25 straight up, 26-31 against the spread

Week 8 Picks:
Tampa Bay at Minnesota – Straight Up: MIN, Against the Spread: TBY (+6.5)
San Diego at Cleveland – Straight Up: SDG, Against the Spread: SDG (-2.5)
Indianapolis at Tennessee – Straight Up: TEN, Against the Spread: TEN (-3.5)
Jacksonville at Green Bay – Straight Up: GBY, Against the Spread: GBY (-13.5)
Seattle at Detroit – Straight Up: DET, Against the Spread: DET (-2.5)
Carolina at Chicago – Straight Up: CHI, Against the Spread: CHI (-7.5)
Oakland at Kansas City – Straight Up: OAK, Against the Spread: OAK (+1.5)

START ‘EM/ANTI-START ‘EM/ESPN.com GRIDIRON CHALLENGE

We are participating in the ESPN Gridiron Challenge on ESPN.com.  The object is to pick the best team possible with a $50 million salary cap.  However, we are adding another wrinkle.  The object of the ESPN.com is to buy low and sell high and the more you accomplish that, the more money you get in your salary cap.  My goal is to put together a nine-man unit (2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) that is better than another nine-man unit at a similar price.

So far this season, my nine-man squad is 2-5 against a comparable squad:

Week 1: Head-to-Head – L, 107-124; By Position – 2-6-1
Week 2: Head-to-Head – L, 73-98; By Position – 3-6
Week 3: Head-to-Head – L, 103-139; By Position – 3-6
Week 4: Head-to-Head – L, 105-118; By Position – 4-5
Week 5: Head-to-Head – W, 110-56; By Position – 7-2
Week 6: Head-to-Head – L, 98-127; By Position – 2-6-1
Week 7: Head-to-Head – W, 119-80; By Position – 6-3
TOTALS: W-L: 2-5, PF: 716, PA: 732, By Position: 27-34-2

Here is the Week 8 entry in the Gridrion Challenge, our “Start ‘Em” team, along with our comparable “Anti-Start ‘Em” team, which is our opponent for the week:

(all dollar figures in millions)

Start ‘Em Team

POS

Anti-Start ‘Em Team

Peyton Manning DEN ($7.0)
QB
Andrew Luck IND ($6.3)
Ben Roethlisberger PIT ($6.2)
QB
Alex Smith SFO ($5.4)
LeSean McCoy PHL ($7.4)
RB
Michael Turner ATL ($6.8)
Alex Green GBY ($4.4)
RB
Jonathan Stewart CAR ($5.6)
Antonio Brown PIT ($6.0)
WR
Steve Smith CAR ($6.1)
Malcom Floyd SDG ($5.8)
WR
DeSean Jackson PHL ($6.0)
Anthony Fasano MIA ($4.9)
TE
Brent Celek PHL ($5.4)
Mason Crosby GBY ($3.5)
K
Alex Henery PHL ($4.3)
New York Jets NYJ ($4.5)
DEF
Kansas City Chiefs KCY ($3.8)
$49.7 million
TOTAL
$49.7 million

Catch me on "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesdays at 11pm ET and Saturdays at 11am ET. We'll break down these picks and look ahead to next week on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment, Saturday morning at 11am ET.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Week 7 NFL Picks

KNOCKOUT POOL/ESPN.com ELIMINATOR CHALLENGE

We are still alive in the Knockout Pool through six weeks.  According to ESPN.com, there are 13,821 left heading into the Sunday of Week 7.

This week’s pick: Minnesota defeating Arizona

Arizona is in free-fall mode after a great 4-0 start.  Their running game is in shambles, with Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams both on IR.  Their quarterback that helped them to their hot start, Kevin Kolb, is out and the backup who was the incumbent in camp, John Skelton takes the reins.  While Arizona was one of the early surprises in the NFC, Minnesota has been one of the enduring surprises in the NFC this season.  Adrian Peterson has had a great comeback season and had three rushing scores last year against Arizona.  Christian Ponder is coming into his own and Percy Harvin is suddenly among the elite receivers in the league.  Go for Minnesota at home in this one.

PAST PICKS
Week 1: Houston (W vs. MIA)
Week 2: N.Y. Giants (W vs. TBY)
Week 3: Chicago (W vs. STL)
Week 4: Baltimore (W vs. CLE)
Week 5: San Francisco (W vs. BUF)
Week 6: N.Y. Jets (W vs. IND)

GAME PICKS/ESPN.com PIGSKIN PICK ‘EM

Here are the game picks for this week.  We also have a “Sports With the StatMan” entry in the ESPN.com Pigskin Pick ‘Em for games against the spread.  We talk about the local games and the three of the other most important games, our “Big Games”, on our weekly This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Saturdays, but we pick every game, every week here on the blog.  Here they are:

LOCAL GAMES

Last Week: 2-2 straight up, 3-1 against the spread
Season: 15-8 straight up, 14-8-1 against the spread

Week 7 Picks:
N.Y. Jets at New England – Straight Up: NE, Against the Spread: NYJ (+10.5)
Washington at N.Y. Giants – Straight Up: NYG, Against the Spread: NYG (-6)
Philadelphia: BYE

BIG GAMES

Last Week: 2-1 straight up, 1-2 against the spread
Season: 15-4 straight up, 12-7 against the spread

Week 7 Picks:
Baltimore at Houston – Straight Up: HOU, Against the Spread: BAL (+7)
Green Bay at St. Louis – Straight Up: GBY, Against the Spread: GBY (-5)
Detroit at Chicago – Straight Up: CHI, Against the Spread: CHI (-6.5)

OTHER GAMES

Last Week: 3-4 straight up, 3-4 against the spread
Season: 25-24 straight up, 20-29 against the spread

Week 7 Picks:
Seattle at San Francisco – Straight Up: SFO, Against the Spread: SFO (-8)
Arizona at Minnesota – Straight Up: MIN (Knockout), Against the Spread: MIN (-7)
Dallas at Carolina – Straight Up: DAL, Against the Spread: DAL (-2.5)
New Orleans at Tampa Bay – Straight Up: NO, Against the Spread: NO (-2)
Tennessee at Buffalo – Straight Up: BUF, Against the Spread: BUF (-3.5)
Cleveland at Indianapolis – Straight Up: IND, Against the Spread: IND (-2.5)
Jacksonville at Oakland – Straight Up: OAK, Against the Spread: OAK (-6.5)
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – Straight Up: PIT, Against the Spread: PIT (-1.5)

START ‘EM/ANTI-START ‘EM/ESPN.com GRIDIRON CHALLENGE

We are participating in the ESPN Gridiron Challenge on ESPN.com.  The object is to pick the best team possible with a $50 million salary cap.  However, we are adding another wrinkle.  The object of the ESPN.com is to buy low and sell high and the more you accomplish that, the more money you get in your salary cap.  My goal is to put together a nine-man unit (2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) that is better than another nine-man unit at a similar price.

So far this season, my nine-man squad is 1-5 against a comparable squad:

Week 1: Head-to-Head – L, 107-124; By Position – 2-6-1
Week 2: Head-to-Head – L, 73-98; By Position – 3-6
Week 3: Head-to-Head – L, 103-139; By Position – 3-6
Week 4: Head-to-Head – L, 105-118; By Position – 4-5
Week 5: Head-to-Head – W, 110-56; By Position – 7-2
Week 6: Head-to-Head – L, 98-127; By Position – 2-6-1
TOTALS: W-L: 1-5, PF: 597, PA: 652, By Position: 21-31-2

Here is the Week 7 entry in the Gridrion Challenge, our “Start ‘Em” team, along with our comparable “Anti-Start ‘Em” team, which is our opponent for the week:

(all dollar figures in millions)

Start ‘Em Team

POS

Anti-Start ‘Em Team

Aaron Rodgers GBY ($7.3)
QB
Tom Brady NE ($7.3)
Jay Cutler CHI ($5.7)
QB
Andrew Luck IND ($6.1)
C.J. Spiller BUF ($6.6)
RB
Alfred Morris WSH ($6.8)
Chris Johnson TEN ($6.3)
RB
DeAngelo Williams CAR ($6.2)
Andre Johnson HOU ($6.0)
WR
Reggie Wayne IND ($6.3)
Brandon Gibson STL ($4.5)
WR
Nate Burleson DET ($5.4)
Jason Witten DAL ($5.4)
TE
Tom Crabtree GBY ($4.1)
Mason Crosby GBY ($3.5)
K
Dan Bailey DAL ($4.2)
Green Bay Packers GBY ($4.6)
DEF
Indianapolis Colts IND ($3.4)
$49.9 million
TOTAL
$49.8 million

Catch me on "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesdays at 11pm ET and Saturdays at 11am ET. We'll break down these picks and look ahead to next week on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment, Saturday morning at 11am ET.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Week 4 NFL Picks

KNOCKOUT POOL/ESPN.com ELIMINATOR CHALLENGE

We have started the season with three correct Knockout picks, but all three of those teams are expected to be 10-win teams.  To win a Knockout Pool, you have to pick a couple of questionable teams to survive because it is a long, grueling 17 weeks and there might be about 12 teams to reach the 10-win plateau this season.

This week’s pick: Baltimore defeating Cleveland

Another maxim of a Knockout Pool is to avoid rivalry games because you learn to expect the unexpected.  Let me put my cliché hat on for a second.  Every time two teams that “don’t like each other” kick off, you can “throw out the records” because on “any given Sunday”, any team can win.  Baltimore, though, on prime time at home is as solid a bet as you can have.

GAME PICKS/ESPN.com PIGSKIN PICK ‘EM

Here are the game picks for this week.  We also have a “Sports With the StatMan” entry in the ESPN.com Pigskin Pick ‘Em for games against the spread.  We talk about the local games and the three of the other most important games, our “Big Games”, on our weekly This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Saturdays, but we pick every game, every week.  Here they are:

LOCAL GAMES

Last Week: 3-1 straight up, 2-2 against the spread
Season: 7-5 straight up, 5-6-1 against the spread
Week 4 Picks:
New England at Buffalo – Straight Up: NE, Against the Spread: NE (-3.5)
San Francisco at N.Y. Jets – Straight Up: SFO, Against the Spread: SFO (-3.5)
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia – Straight Up: NYG, Against the Spread: NYG (+2.5)

BIG GAMES

Last Week: 3-0 straight up, 3-0 against the spread
Season: 8-2 straight up, 8-2 against the spread
Week 4 Picks:
Carolina at Atlanta – Straight Up: ATL, Against the Spread: ATL (-7)
New Orleans at Green Bay – Straight Up: GBY, Against the Spread: NO (+7)
Chicago at Dallas – Straight Up: DAL, Against the Spread: DAL (-3.5)

OTHER GAMES

Last Week: 7-2 straight up, 5-4 against the spread
Season: 17-9 straight up, 13-13 against the spread
Week 4 Picks:
Cleveland at Baltimore – Straight Up: BAL (Knockout), Against the Spread: BAL (-11)
Seattle at St. Louis – Straight Up: STL, Against the Spread: SEA (-2.5)
Minnesota at Detroit – Straight Up: DET, Against the Spread: MIN (+4.5)
San Diego at Kansas City – Straight Up: KCY, Against the Spread: KCY (+1.5)
Houston at Tennessee – Straight Up: HOU, Against the Spread: TEN (+12)
Cincinnati at Jacksonville – Straight Up: CIN, Against the Spread: CIN (Pick ‘em)
Oakland at Denver – Straight Up: DEN, Against the Spread: DEN (-7)
Miami at Arizona – Straight Up: ARZ, Against the Spread: ARZ (-5)
Washington at Tampa Bay – Straight Up: WSH, Against the Spread: WSH (+2.5)

START ‘EM/ANTI-START ‘EM/ESPN.com GRIDIRON CHALLENGE

We are participating in the ESPN Gridiron Challenge on ESPN.com.  The object is to pick the best team possible with a $50 million salary cap.  However, we are adding another wrinkle.  The object of the ESPN.com is to buy low and sell high and the more you accomplish that, the more money you get in your salary cap.  My goal is to put together a nine-man unit (2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) that is better than another nine-man unit at a similar price.

So far this season, my nine-man squad is 0-3 against a comparable squad:

Week 1: Head-to-Head – L, 124-108; By Position – 2-6-1
Week 2: Head-to-Head – L, 98-73; By Position – 3-6
Week 3: Head-to-Head – L, 103-139; By Position – 3-6

Here is the Week 4 entry in the Gridrion Challenge, our “Start ‘Em” team, along with our comparable “Anti-Start ‘Em” team, which is our opponent for the week:

(all dollar figures in millions)

Start ‘Em Team

POS

Anti-Start ‘Em Team

Peyton Manning DEN ($6.1)
QB
Eli Manning NYG ($6.7)
Matt Schaub HOU ($5.5)
QB
Kevin Kolb ARZ ($5.2)
BenJarvis Green-Ellis CIN ($6.0)
RB
Adrian Peterson MIN ($6.0)
Michael Bush CHI ($5.7)
RB
Ryan Mathews SDG ($5.8)
Miles Austin DAL ($5.9)
WR
Roddy White ATL ($6.1)
A.J. Green CIN ($5.8)
WR
Dwayne Bowe KCY ($5.8)
Owen Daniels HOU ($4.9)
TE
Martellus Bennett NYG ($5.3)
Blair Walsh MIN ($4.3)
K
Dan Bailey DAL ($3.9)
Seattle Seahawks SEA ($5.2)
DEF
Atlanta Falcons ATL ($5.1)
$49.4 million
TOTAL
$49.9 million

Week 4 Fantasy Football Primer

We have started a new weekly blog post for you: the Fantasy Football Primer.  Between this and the post for the weekly NFL picks, this gives you the detail we could not possibly give you on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Sports With The StatMan (Saturdays, 11am ET on BlogTalkRadio).

Ahead are our positional rankings for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, kicker, and defense/special teams positions.  How is this different than any other prognostication or, for lack of a better term, “guess”?  We break them down into tiers.  We give you a projected amount of points.  Also, for a few of these players, we give a little more information.  Some we talk about on the show, some we do not.

A note on the tiers: if you are in a 10-team league and play two running backs, if you have two tailbacks listed here in the top 20, you are in good shape.  If you have three running backs and you play with a “flex” position, you may want to consider playing your third solid running back at “flex”.  If you see a free agent in the top 20, grab him and don’t look back.

POSITIONAL RANKINGS

QUARTERBACKS

TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 20+ pts)

1. Matt Schaub HOU (vs TEN): 27.10 projected points
2. Drew Brees NO (at GBY): 26.89 ppts
3. Peyton Manning DEN (vs OAK): 21.96 ppts
4. Aaron Rodgers GBY (vs NO): 20.57 ppts
5. Matt Ryan ATL (vs CAR): 20.41 ppts
6. Robert Griffin III WSH (at TBY): 20.00 ppts

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 15-20 pts)

7. Joe Flacco BAL (vs CLE): 19.23 ppts
8. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF (vs NE): 18.02 ppts
9. Andy Dalton CIN (at JAX): 16.51 ppts
10. Carson Palmer OAK (at DEN): 16.24 ppts
11. Tom Brady NE (at BUF): 15.98 ppts
12. Eli Manning NYG (at PHL): 15.27 ppts

TIER 3 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – 12-15 pts)

13. Matthew Stafford DET (vs MIN): 14.64 ppts
14. Cam Newton CAR (at ATL): 13.37 ppts
15. Philip Rivers SDG (at KCY): 12.37 ppts
16. Josh Freeman TBY (vs WSH): 12.35 ppts
17. Michael Vick PHL (vs NYG): 12.29 ppts
18. Tony Romo DAL (vs CHI): 12.25 ppts
19. Mark Sanchez NYJ (vs SFO): 12.05 ppts

TIER 4 (“DESPERATE STARTS”: Projected Points – <12 o:p="o:p" pts="pts">

20. Blaine Gabbert JAX (vs CIN): 10.14 ppts
21. Alex Smith SFO (at NYJ): 10.06 ppts
22. Russell Wilson SEA (at STL): 9.49 ppts
23. Jay Cutler CHI (at DAL): 8.85 ppts
24. Kevin Kolb ARZ (vs MIA): 8.44 ppts

RUNNING BACKS

TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 12+ pts)

1. Arian Foster HOU (vs TEN): 33.44 projected points
2. Maurice Jones-Drew JAX (vs CIN): 20.40 ppts
3. BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN (at JAX): 13.86 ppts
4. Jamaal Charles KCY (vs SDG): 12.89 ppts
5. Ray Rice BAL (vs CLE): 12.75 ppts
6. Frank Gore SFO (at NYJ): 12.34 ppts

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 9-12 pts)

7. Darren McFadden OAK (at DEN): 11.04 ppts
8. Willis McGahee DEN (vs OAK): 9.58 ppts
9. LeSean McCoy PHL (vs NYG): 9.44 ppts
10. Marshawn Lynch SEA (at STL): 9.42 ppts
11. Andre Brown NYG (at PHL): 9.11 ppts
12. C.J. Spiller BUF (vs NE): 9.09 ppts
13. Fred Jackson BUF (vs NE): 9.01 ppts

TIER 3 (“MATCHUP STARTS”: Projected Points – 6-9 pts)

14. Trent Richardson CLE (at BAL): 8.9 ppts
15. Ahmad Bradshaw NYG (at PHL): 8.8 ppts
16. Adrian Peterson MIN (at DET): 8.6 ppts
17. Michael Turner ATL (vs CAR): 8.56 ppts
18. Cedric Benson GBY (vs NO): 7.65 ppts
19. Ryan Mathews SDG (at KCY): 7.15 ppts
20. Michael Bush CHI (at DAL): 7.13 ppts
21. Darren Sproles NO (at GBY): 6.97 ppts
22. DeMarco Murray DAL (vs CHI): 6.91 ppts
23. Doug Martin TBY (vs WSH): 6.38 ppts

TIER 4 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – 4-6 pts)

24. Steven Jackson STL (vs SEA): 5.92 ppts
25. Ben Tate HOU (vs TEN): 5.91 ppts
26. Chris Johnson TEN (at HOU): 5.88 ppts
27. Jackie Battle SDG (at KCY): 5.76 ppts
28. Reggie Bush MIA (at ARZ): 5.34 ppts
29. DeAngelo Williams CAR (at ATL): 5.01 ppts
30. Matt Forte CHI (at DAL): 4.57 ppts
31. Ryan Williams ARZ (vs MIA): 4.42 ppts

TIER 5 (“DESPERATE STARTS”: Projected Points – <4 o:p="o:p" pts="pts">

32. Shonn Greene NYJ (vs SFO): 3.78 ppts
33. Rashad Jennings JAX (vs CIN): 3.78 ppts
34. Jonathan Stewart CAR (at ATL): 3.75 ppts
35. Stevan Ridley NE (at BUF): 3.74 ppts
36. Kevin Smith DET (vs MIN): 3.37 ppts
37. Mikel Leshoure DET (vs MIN): 2.65 ppts
38. Mark Ingram NO (at GBY): 2.64 ppts
39. Jacquizz Rodgers ATL (vs CAR): 2.39 ppts
40. Alfred Morris WSH (at TBY): 2.37 ppts

WIDE RECEIVERS

TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 12+ pts)

1. A.J. Green CIN (at JAX): 18.84 projected points
2. Victor Cruz NYG (at PHL): 18.67 ppts
3. Calvin Johnson DET (vs MIN): 16.68 ppts
4. Andre Johnson HOU (vs TEN): 13.54 ppts
5. Julio Jones ATL (vs CAR): 12.96 ppts
6. Vincent Jackson TBY (vs WSH): 12.76 ppts
7. Miles Austin DAL (vs CHI): 12.50 ppts
8. Wes Welker NE (at BUF): 12.41 ppts

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 8-12 pts)

9. Torrey Smith BAL (vs CLE): 11.67 ppts
10. Larry Fitzgerald ARZ (vs MIA): 10.97 ppts
11. Brandon Lloyd NE (at BUF): 10.87 ppts
12. Demaryius Thomas DEN (vs OAK): 10.40 ppts
13. Jordy Nelson GBY (vs NO): 10.19 ppts
14. Steve Johnson BUF (vs NE): 9.86 ppts
15. Greg Jennings GBY (vs NO): 9.78 ppts
16. Aldrick Robinson WSH (at TBY): 9.56 ppts
17. Steve Smith CAR (at ATL): 8.24 ppts
18. Percy Harvin MIN (at DET): 8.00 ppts

TIER 3 (“MATCHUP STARTS”: Projected Points – 5-8 pts)

19. Jeremy Maclin PHL (vs NYG): 7.89 ppts
20. Santonio Holmes NYJ (vs SFO): 7.62 ppts
21. Roddy White ATL (vs CAR): 7.59 ppts
22. Mike Williams TBY (vs WSH): 7.41 ppts
23. Dez Bryant DAL (vs CHI): 7.11 ppts
24. DeSean Jackson PHL (vs NYG): 6.98 ppts
25. Brandon Marshall CHI (at DAL): 6.38 ppts
26. Damaris Johnson PHL (vs NYG): 6.33 ppts
27. Travis Benjamin CLE (at BAL): 6.31 ppts
28. Marques Colston NO (at GBY): 6.27 ppts
29. Leonard Hankerson WSH (at TBY): 6.12 ppts
30. Eric Decker DEN (vs OAK): 6.06 ppts
31. Dwayne Bowe KCY (vs SDG): 5.85 ppts
32. Denarius Moore OAK (at DEN): 5.83 ppts
33. Anquan Boldin BAL (vs CLE): 5.46 ppts
34. Nate Washington TEN (at HOU): 5.33 ppts

TIER 4 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – <5 o:p="o:p" pts="pts">

35. Pierre Garcon WSH (at TBY): 4.93 ppts
36. Malcom Floyd SDG (at KCY): 4.92 ppts
37. Andrew Hawkins CIN (at JAX): 4.89 ppts
38. Lance Moore NO (at GBY): 4.72 ppts
39. Keshawn Martin HOU (vs TEN): 4.67 ppts
40. Robert Meachem SDG (at KCY): 4.56 ppts

TIGHT ENDS

TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 12+ pts)

1. Rob Gronkowski NE (at BUF): 18.26 projected points
2. Jimmy Graham NO (at GBY): 14.57 ppts
3. Vernon Davis SFO (at NYJ): 12.59 ppts
4. Tony Gonzalez ATL (vs CAR): 12.30 ppts

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 7-12 pts)

5. Owen Daniels HOU (vs TEN): 10.47 ppts
6. David Ausberry OAK (at DEN): 9.00 ppts
7. Antonio Gates SDG (at KCY): 8.84 ppts
8. Brandon Pettigrew DET (vs MIN): 8.50 ppts
9. Jermaine Gresham CIN (at JAX): 7.50 ppts
10. Jason Witten DAL (vs CHI): 7.40 ppts
11. Fred Davis WSH (at TBY): 7.33 ppts
12. Martellus Bennett NYG (at PHL): 7.20 ppts

TIER 3 (“MATCHUP STARTS”: Projected Points – 5-7 pts)

13. Brent Celek PHL (vs NYG): 6.84 ppts
14. Jermichael Finley GBY (vs NO): 6.66 ppts
15. Greg Olsen CAR (at ATL): 6.23 ppts
16. Tony Moeaki KCY (vs SDG): 6.08 ppts
17. Kyle Rudolph MIN (at DET): 5.68 ppts
18. Jared Cook TEN (at HOU): 5.59 ppts
19. Jacob Tamme DEN (vs OAK): 5.37 ppts

TIER 4 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – <5 o:p="o:p" pts="pts">

20. Dallas Clark TBY (vs WSH): 4.96 ppts
21. Scott Chandler BUF (vs NE): 3.77 ppts
22. Jeff Cumberland NYJ (vs SFO): 3.60 ppts
23. Anthony Fasano MIA (at ARZ): 3.50 ppts
24. John Carlson MIN (at DET): 3.29 ppts

KICKERS

TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 10+ pts)

1. David Akers SFO (at NYJ): 11.49 ppts
2. Stephen Gostkowski NE (at BUF): 10.54 ppts
3. Jason Hanson DET (vs MIN): 10.32 ppts

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 7-10 pts)

4. Shayne Graham HOU (vs TEN): 8.49 ppts
5. Mason Crosby GBY (vs NO): 8.10 ppts
6. Blair Walsh MIN (at DET): 7.57 ppts
7. Justin Tucker BAL (vs CLE): 7.34 ppts
8. Nick Novak SDG (at KCY): 7.33 ppts
9. Matt Bryant ATL (vs CAR): 7.14 ppts

TIER 3 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – <7 o:p="o:p" pts="pts">

10. Sebastian Janikowski OAK (at DEN): 6.89 ppts
11. Lawrence Tynes NYG (at PHL): 6.65 ppts
12. Mike Nugent CIN (at JAX): 6.52 ppts
13. Robbie Gould CHI (at DAL): 6.24 ppts
14. Billy Cundiff WSH (at TBY): 6.06 ppts
15. Dan Bailey DAL (vs CHI): 6.04 ppts
16. Dan Carpenter MIA (at ARZ): 5.67 ppts
17. Rob Bironas TEN (at HOU): 5.63 ppts
18. Greg Zuerlein STL (vs SEA): 5.27 ppts
19. Ryan Succop KCY (vs SDG): 5.17 ppts
20. Matt Prater DEN (vs OAK): 5.15 ppts
21. Connor Barth TBY (vs WSH): 5.11 ppts
22. Garrett Hartley NO (at GBY): 4.83 ppts
23. Jay Feely ARZ (vs MIA): 4.75 ppts
24. Nick Folk NYJ (vs SFO): 4.67 ppts

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 10+ pts)

1.  Bears CHI (at DAL): 11.97 ppts
2.  Seahawks SEA (at STL): 11.64 ppts

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 6-10 pts)

3.  Cardinals ARZ (vs MIA): 7.81 ppts
4.  Packers GBY (vs NO): 7.56 ppts
5.  Giants NYG (at PHL): 7.45 ppts
6.  Ravens BAL (vs CLE): 6.88 ppts
7.  Jets NYJ (vs SFO): 6.21 ppts

TIER 3 (“MATCHUP STARTS”: Projected Points – 4-6 pts)

8.  Eagles PHL (vs NYG): 5.54 ppts
9.  Texans HOU (vs TEN): 4.99 ppts
10.  Bengals CIN (at JAX): 4.83 ppts
11.  49ers SFO (at NYJ): 4.70 ppts
12.  Falcons ATL (vs CAR): 4.61 ppts
13.  Cowboys DAL (vs CHI): 4.46 ppts
14.  Lions DET (vs MIN): 4.37 ppts
15.  Patriots NE (at BUF): 4.37 ppts
16.  Buccaneers TBY (vs WSH): 4.31 ppts

TIER 4 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – <4 o:p="o:p" pts="pts">

17.  Saints NO (at GBY): 3.56 ppts
18.  Bills BUF (vs NE): 3.49 ppts
19.  Broncos DEN (vs OAK): 3.49 ppts
20.  Chargers SDG (at KCY): 3.29 ppts
21.  Vikings MIN (at DET): 3.27 ppts
22.  Redskins WSH (at TBY): 3.06 ppts
23.  Titans TEN (at HOU): 2.71 ppts
24.  Chiefs KCY (vs SDG): 2.61 ppts

WEEK 4 INJURIES

OUT (0% of playing)

RUNNING BACKS

Peyton Hillis KCY (ankle) (Beneficiary: Jamaal Charles)
Beanie Wells ARZ (IR, toe) (Beneficiary: Ryan Williams)
Roy Helu WSH (IR, toe) (Beneficiary: Alfred Morris)
Rashard Mendenhall PIT (knee) (Beneficiaries: Isaac Redman/Jonathan Dwyer)
Brandon Jacobs SFO (knee) (Beneficiary: Kendall Hunter)

WIDE RECEIVERS

Hakeem Nicks NYG (foot, knee) (Beneficiary: Ramses Barden)
Stephen Hill NYJ (hamstring) (Beneficiary: Jeremy Kerley)
Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK (concussion, neck) (Beneficiary:
Kenny Britt TEN (ankle) (Beneficiary: Kendall Wright)

TIGHT ENDS

Aaron Hernandez NE (ankle) (Beneficiary: Rob Gronkowski)
Dustin Keller NYJ (hamstring) (Beneficiary: Jeff Cumberland)

KICKER

Nate Kaeding SDG (right groin) (Beneficiary: Nick Novak)

QUESTIONABLE (50% of playing)

RUNNING BACKS

Reggie Bush MIA (knee) (Possible beneficiary: Daniel Thomas)
Matt Forte CHI (ankle) (Possible beneficiary: Michael Bush)
Bernard Scott CIN (ankle)
Mike Goodson OAK (hamstring)

WIDE RECEIVERS

Pierre Garcon WSH (foot) (Possible beneficiary: Leonard Hankerson)

TIGHT ENDS

Brandon Myers OAK (concussion) (Possible beneficiary: David Ausberry)

PROBABLE (75% of playing)

RB: Darren McFadden OAK (shoulder), Willis McGahee DEN (ribs), LeSean McCoy PHL (rib), Ahmad Bradshaw NYG (neck), Rashad Jennings JAX (knee), James Starks GBY (toe), Evan Royster WSH (knee)
WR: Miles Austin DAL (hamstring), Greg Jennings GBY (groin), Jeremy Maclin PHL (hip), Leonard Hankerson WSH (back), Laurent Robinson JAX (concussion)
TE: Jacob Tamme DEN (groin)
K: Sebastian Janikowski OAK (left groin)

START ‘EM/SIT ‘EM

(number before player name is this week’s positional rankings)

QUARTERBACKS

START: #1 Matt Schaub HOU (vs TEN): Owned in 98%/Starting in 22% of CBSSports.com leagues
START: #8 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF (vs NE): 74 O%/9 St% (CBS)
SIT: #15 Philip Rivers SDG (at KCY): 99 O%/71 St% (CBS)
SIT: #17 Michael Vick PHL (vs NYG): 99 O%/72 St% (CBS)

RUNNING BACKS

START: #3 BenJarvis Green-Ellis CIN (at JAX): 100 O%/84 St% (CBS)
START: #8 Willis McGahee DEN (vs OAK): 99 O%/61 St% (CBS)
SIT: #28 Reggie Bush MIA (at ARZ): 100 O%/91 St% (CBS)
SIT: #40 Alfred Morris WSH (at TBY): 99 O%/78 St% (CBS)

WIDE RECEIVERS

START: #6 Vincent Jackson TBY (vs WSH): 100 O%/69 St% (CBS)
START: #9 Torrey Smith BAL (vs CLE): 100 O%/39 St% (CBS)
SIT: #31 Dwayne Bowe KCY (vs SDG): 100 O%/95 St% (CBS)
SIT: #36 Malcom Floyd SDG (at KCY): 100 O%/72 St% (CBS)

TIGHT ENDS

START: #5 Owen Daniels HOU (vs TEN): 87 O%/42 St% (CBS)
START: #6 David Ausberry OAK (at DEN): 0 O%/0 St% (CBS)
SIT: #13 Brent Celek PHL (vs NYG): 94 O%/66 St% (CBS)
SIT: #14 Jermichael Finley GBY (vs NO): 100 O%/100 St% (CBS)

KICKERS

START: #4 Shayne Graham HOU (vs TEN): 61 O%/47 St% (CBS)
SIT: #22 Garrett Hartley NO (at GBY): 88 O%/87 St% (CBS)

THE BARGAIN BIN

(number before player name is this week’s positional rankings)

Just as our Week 3 Bargain Bin was AFC-centric, our Week 4 Bargain Bin has all but one player coming from the NFC.

QUARTERBACKS

#20 Blaine Gabbert JAX (vs CIN): Owned in 12%/Starting in 0% of CBSSports.com leagues
#22 Russell Wilson SEA (at STL): 40 O%/2 St% (CBS)

WIDE RECEIVERS

#29 Leonard Hankerson WSH (at TBY): 17 O%/4 St% (CBS)

KICKERS

#6 Blair Walsh MIN (at DEN): 40 O%/13 St% (CBS)

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

#16 Buccaneers TBY (vs WSH): 33 O%/2 St% (CBS)

Key:
O% - Percentage that player is owned in CBSSports.com leagues
St% - Percentage that player is started in CBSSports.com league lineups

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