Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Stay or Go: 2010 MLB Trading Deadline

On the Sports With The StatMan show before the MLB Trading Deadline (#69, 7/23/10), we played “Stay or Go” and predicted which players rumored in trade talks would stay with their clubs or change teams at the deadline. A lot of big names were rumored to be traded and we had our share of deals made, especially right up against the deadline, but I expected more movement of big names. Overall, I was 10-4 on my predictions.

Here is the list we discussed on the show. First, the players I thought would STAY with their current teams:
  • Roy Oswalt: I predicted he would STAY with the Astros because I thought the asking price was too high. (GO: He was traded to the Phillies in the biggest deal of deadline week.)
  • Dan Haren: I predicted he would STAY with the Diamondbacks because of his no-trade clause including several contending teams. (GO: The Angels traded for Haren, which may not have helped their pennant hopes in the end since they were playing catch-up before the Haren deal was consummated.)
  • Adam Dunn: At last check before the show, he was trying to work out a long-term deal with the Nationals. I thought he would STAY and be part of the solution in Washington. (STAY: Dunn is still playing for Washington and they are still working on that deal.)
  • Jayson Werth: This was a tough one, as you could see the Phillies holding on to him to make a run at the NL East or ship him out to lure some more pitching. That being said, I thought he would STAY, mainly because of the bat needed in the lineup with Chase Utley out until late August. (STAY: They couldn’t part with a middle of the order bat with Utley (and now Ryan Howard) out of the lineup).
  • Fausto Carmona: I was betting on upside when I said he would STAY with the Indians, as Carmona does have significant upside. (STAY: Maybe the Indians realized they could not get anyone back with more upside than Carmona?)
  • Dan Uggla: He has a big power bat and I thought he would STAY with the Marlins because of the new stadium that is a season and a half away. (STAY: The Marlins kept their dynamite middle infield of Uggla and shortstop Hanley Ramirez intact.)
  • Corey Hart: The Brewers were asking for too much for someone who was a part-time player when the season started. His values were pushed to the extremes, so I thought he would STAY. (STAY: His power has leveled off, but he has been a more complete player in the last couple of months.)
  • Brett Myers: FOX Sports reported the Astros would have to be “overwhelmed” to trade Myers. The Astros like to hang on to their guys, so I predicted he would STAY. (STAY: Myers and the Astros are talking long-term deal.)
Now, for the players I thought would GO on to a different team:
  • Ted Lilly: I thought he would GO from the Cubs to a contending team. He was able to block a trade to 10 teams, so conceivably, the Cubs only had 20 teams to work with. (GO: He was traded to one of those 20 other teams, the Dodgers.)
  • Jake Westbrook: He was a veteran pitcher on a bad team, which is perfect for a possible move. I thought he would GO from the Indians. (GO: The Cardinals came calling and Westbrook rounds out the pitching staff nicely. He went in a three-team deal with Cardinal OF Ryan Ludwick going to San Diego.)
  • Mike Lowell: He was not getting playing time, so I predicted him to GO from the Red Sox. Detroit was looking for a third baseman after the injury to Brandon Inge. (STAY: Good thing he stayed. Kevin Youkilis is gone for the year and Lowell will get most of the playing time at first.)
  • Jeff Francoeur: From power source to a platoon player, Francoeur was my pick to GO from the Mets after Carlos Beltran returned to the lineup. (STAY: Jason Bay was injured in Los Angeles and has not returned to date. He may miss the rest of the season. In the meantime, Francoeur is getting regular at-bats again, but he might still get moved in August if he clears waivers to make room for young outfielder Fernando Martinez.)
  • Octavio Dotel: Most contenders need bullpen help and Dotel was the best closer on a bad team this year. These guys normally get moved, so I picked him to GO from the Pirates. (GO: The Dodgers did this last year with George Sherrill, who has faded into fantasy oblivion. The same now applies to Dotel.)
  • Kerry Wood: I thought he would GO from Cleveland by the end of July, not even waiting for a possible August deal that could happen since he would have most likely slipped through waivers. (GO: The Yankees turned Wood from a closer to a possible 8th-inning guy, which would turn Joba Chamberlain to a spare part.)

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