Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Week 4 Fantasy Football Primer

We have started a new weekly blog post for you: the Fantasy Football Primer.  Between this and the post for the weekly NFL picks, this gives you the detail we could not possibly give you on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Sports With The StatMan (Saturdays, 11am ET on BlogTalkRadio).

Ahead are our positional rankings for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, kicker, and defense/special teams positions.  How is this different than any other prognostication or, for lack of a better term, “guess”?  We break them down into tiers.  We give you a projected amount of points.  Also, for a few of these players, we give a little more information.  Some we talk about on the show, some we do not.

A note on the tiers: if you are in a 10-team league and play two running backs, if you have two tailbacks listed here in the top 20, you are in good shape.  If you have three running backs and you play with a “flex” position, you may want to consider playing your third solid running back at “flex”.  If you see a free agent in the top 20, grab him and don’t look back.

POSITIONAL RANKINGS

QUARTERBACKS

TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 20+ pts)

1. Matt Schaub HOU (vs TEN): 27.10 projected points
2. Drew Brees NO (at GBY): 26.89 ppts
3. Peyton Manning DEN (vs OAK): 21.96 ppts
4. Aaron Rodgers GBY (vs NO): 20.57 ppts
5. Matt Ryan ATL (vs CAR): 20.41 ppts
6. Robert Griffin III WSH (at TBY): 20.00 ppts

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 15-20 pts)

7. Joe Flacco BAL (vs CLE): 19.23 ppts
8. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF (vs NE): 18.02 ppts
9. Andy Dalton CIN (at JAX): 16.51 ppts
10. Carson Palmer OAK (at DEN): 16.24 ppts
11. Tom Brady NE (at BUF): 15.98 ppts
12. Eli Manning NYG (at PHL): 15.27 ppts

TIER 3 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – 12-15 pts)

13. Matthew Stafford DET (vs MIN): 14.64 ppts
14. Cam Newton CAR (at ATL): 13.37 ppts
15. Philip Rivers SDG (at KCY): 12.37 ppts
16. Josh Freeman TBY (vs WSH): 12.35 ppts
17. Michael Vick PHL (vs NYG): 12.29 ppts
18. Tony Romo DAL (vs CHI): 12.25 ppts
19. Mark Sanchez NYJ (vs SFO): 12.05 ppts

TIER 4 (“DESPERATE STARTS”: Projected Points – <12 o:p="o:p" pts="pts">

20. Blaine Gabbert JAX (vs CIN): 10.14 ppts
21. Alex Smith SFO (at NYJ): 10.06 ppts
22. Russell Wilson SEA (at STL): 9.49 ppts
23. Jay Cutler CHI (at DAL): 8.85 ppts
24. Kevin Kolb ARZ (vs MIA): 8.44 ppts

RUNNING BACKS

TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 12+ pts)

1. Arian Foster HOU (vs TEN): 33.44 projected points
2. Maurice Jones-Drew JAX (vs CIN): 20.40 ppts
3. BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN (at JAX): 13.86 ppts
4. Jamaal Charles KCY (vs SDG): 12.89 ppts
5. Ray Rice BAL (vs CLE): 12.75 ppts
6. Frank Gore SFO (at NYJ): 12.34 ppts

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 9-12 pts)

7. Darren McFadden OAK (at DEN): 11.04 ppts
8. Willis McGahee DEN (vs OAK): 9.58 ppts
9. LeSean McCoy PHL (vs NYG): 9.44 ppts
10. Marshawn Lynch SEA (at STL): 9.42 ppts
11. Andre Brown NYG (at PHL): 9.11 ppts
12. C.J. Spiller BUF (vs NE): 9.09 ppts
13. Fred Jackson BUF (vs NE): 9.01 ppts

TIER 3 (“MATCHUP STARTS”: Projected Points – 6-9 pts)

14. Trent Richardson CLE (at BAL): 8.9 ppts
15. Ahmad Bradshaw NYG (at PHL): 8.8 ppts
16. Adrian Peterson MIN (at DET): 8.6 ppts
17. Michael Turner ATL (vs CAR): 8.56 ppts
18. Cedric Benson GBY (vs NO): 7.65 ppts
19. Ryan Mathews SDG (at KCY): 7.15 ppts
20. Michael Bush CHI (at DAL): 7.13 ppts
21. Darren Sproles NO (at GBY): 6.97 ppts
22. DeMarco Murray DAL (vs CHI): 6.91 ppts
23. Doug Martin TBY (vs WSH): 6.38 ppts

TIER 4 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – 4-6 pts)

24. Steven Jackson STL (vs SEA): 5.92 ppts
25. Ben Tate HOU (vs TEN): 5.91 ppts
26. Chris Johnson TEN (at HOU): 5.88 ppts
27. Jackie Battle SDG (at KCY): 5.76 ppts
28. Reggie Bush MIA (at ARZ): 5.34 ppts
29. DeAngelo Williams CAR (at ATL): 5.01 ppts
30. Matt Forte CHI (at DAL): 4.57 ppts
31. Ryan Williams ARZ (vs MIA): 4.42 ppts

TIER 5 (“DESPERATE STARTS”: Projected Points – <4 o:p="o:p" pts="pts">

32. Shonn Greene NYJ (vs SFO): 3.78 ppts
33. Rashad Jennings JAX (vs CIN): 3.78 ppts
34. Jonathan Stewart CAR (at ATL): 3.75 ppts
35. Stevan Ridley NE (at BUF): 3.74 ppts
36. Kevin Smith DET (vs MIN): 3.37 ppts
37. Mikel Leshoure DET (vs MIN): 2.65 ppts
38. Mark Ingram NO (at GBY): 2.64 ppts
39. Jacquizz Rodgers ATL (vs CAR): 2.39 ppts
40. Alfred Morris WSH (at TBY): 2.37 ppts

WIDE RECEIVERS

TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 12+ pts)

1. A.J. Green CIN (at JAX): 18.84 projected points
2. Victor Cruz NYG (at PHL): 18.67 ppts
3. Calvin Johnson DET (vs MIN): 16.68 ppts
4. Andre Johnson HOU (vs TEN): 13.54 ppts
5. Julio Jones ATL (vs CAR): 12.96 ppts
6. Vincent Jackson TBY (vs WSH): 12.76 ppts
7. Miles Austin DAL (vs CHI): 12.50 ppts
8. Wes Welker NE (at BUF): 12.41 ppts

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 8-12 pts)

9. Torrey Smith BAL (vs CLE): 11.67 ppts
10. Larry Fitzgerald ARZ (vs MIA): 10.97 ppts
11. Brandon Lloyd NE (at BUF): 10.87 ppts
12. Demaryius Thomas DEN (vs OAK): 10.40 ppts
13. Jordy Nelson GBY (vs NO): 10.19 ppts
14. Steve Johnson BUF (vs NE): 9.86 ppts
15. Greg Jennings GBY (vs NO): 9.78 ppts
16. Aldrick Robinson WSH (at TBY): 9.56 ppts
17. Steve Smith CAR (at ATL): 8.24 ppts
18. Percy Harvin MIN (at DET): 8.00 ppts

TIER 3 (“MATCHUP STARTS”: Projected Points – 5-8 pts)

19. Jeremy Maclin PHL (vs NYG): 7.89 ppts
20. Santonio Holmes NYJ (vs SFO): 7.62 ppts
21. Roddy White ATL (vs CAR): 7.59 ppts
22. Mike Williams TBY (vs WSH): 7.41 ppts
23. Dez Bryant DAL (vs CHI): 7.11 ppts
24. DeSean Jackson PHL (vs NYG): 6.98 ppts
25. Brandon Marshall CHI (at DAL): 6.38 ppts
26. Damaris Johnson PHL (vs NYG): 6.33 ppts
27. Travis Benjamin CLE (at BAL): 6.31 ppts
28. Marques Colston NO (at GBY): 6.27 ppts
29. Leonard Hankerson WSH (at TBY): 6.12 ppts
30. Eric Decker DEN (vs OAK): 6.06 ppts
31. Dwayne Bowe KCY (vs SDG): 5.85 ppts
32. Denarius Moore OAK (at DEN): 5.83 ppts
33. Anquan Boldin BAL (vs CLE): 5.46 ppts
34. Nate Washington TEN (at HOU): 5.33 ppts

TIER 4 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – <5 o:p="o:p" pts="pts">

35. Pierre Garcon WSH (at TBY): 4.93 ppts
36. Malcom Floyd SDG (at KCY): 4.92 ppts
37. Andrew Hawkins CIN (at JAX): 4.89 ppts
38. Lance Moore NO (at GBY): 4.72 ppts
39. Keshawn Martin HOU (vs TEN): 4.67 ppts
40. Robert Meachem SDG (at KCY): 4.56 ppts

TIGHT ENDS

TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 12+ pts)

1. Rob Gronkowski NE (at BUF): 18.26 projected points
2. Jimmy Graham NO (at GBY): 14.57 ppts
3. Vernon Davis SFO (at NYJ): 12.59 ppts
4. Tony Gonzalez ATL (vs CAR): 12.30 ppts

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 7-12 pts)

5. Owen Daniels HOU (vs TEN): 10.47 ppts
6. David Ausberry OAK (at DEN): 9.00 ppts
7. Antonio Gates SDG (at KCY): 8.84 ppts
8. Brandon Pettigrew DET (vs MIN): 8.50 ppts
9. Jermaine Gresham CIN (at JAX): 7.50 ppts
10. Jason Witten DAL (vs CHI): 7.40 ppts
11. Fred Davis WSH (at TBY): 7.33 ppts
12. Martellus Bennett NYG (at PHL): 7.20 ppts

TIER 3 (“MATCHUP STARTS”: Projected Points – 5-7 pts)

13. Brent Celek PHL (vs NYG): 6.84 ppts
14. Jermichael Finley GBY (vs NO): 6.66 ppts
15. Greg Olsen CAR (at ATL): 6.23 ppts
16. Tony Moeaki KCY (vs SDG): 6.08 ppts
17. Kyle Rudolph MIN (at DET): 5.68 ppts
18. Jared Cook TEN (at HOU): 5.59 ppts
19. Jacob Tamme DEN (vs OAK): 5.37 ppts

TIER 4 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – <5 o:p="o:p" pts="pts">

20. Dallas Clark TBY (vs WSH): 4.96 ppts
21. Scott Chandler BUF (vs NE): 3.77 ppts
22. Jeff Cumberland NYJ (vs SFO): 3.60 ppts
23. Anthony Fasano MIA (at ARZ): 3.50 ppts
24. John Carlson MIN (at DET): 3.29 ppts

KICKERS

TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 10+ pts)

1. David Akers SFO (at NYJ): 11.49 ppts
2. Stephen Gostkowski NE (at BUF): 10.54 ppts
3. Jason Hanson DET (vs MIN): 10.32 ppts

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 7-10 pts)

4. Shayne Graham HOU (vs TEN): 8.49 ppts
5. Mason Crosby GBY (vs NO): 8.10 ppts
6. Blair Walsh MIN (at DET): 7.57 ppts
7. Justin Tucker BAL (vs CLE): 7.34 ppts
8. Nick Novak SDG (at KCY): 7.33 ppts
9. Matt Bryant ATL (vs CAR): 7.14 ppts

TIER 3 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – <7 o:p="o:p" pts="pts">

10. Sebastian Janikowski OAK (at DEN): 6.89 ppts
11. Lawrence Tynes NYG (at PHL): 6.65 ppts
12. Mike Nugent CIN (at JAX): 6.52 ppts
13. Robbie Gould CHI (at DAL): 6.24 ppts
14. Billy Cundiff WSH (at TBY): 6.06 ppts
15. Dan Bailey DAL (vs CHI): 6.04 ppts
16. Dan Carpenter MIA (at ARZ): 5.67 ppts
17. Rob Bironas TEN (at HOU): 5.63 ppts
18. Greg Zuerlein STL (vs SEA): 5.27 ppts
19. Ryan Succop KCY (vs SDG): 5.17 ppts
20. Matt Prater DEN (vs OAK): 5.15 ppts
21. Connor Barth TBY (vs WSH): 5.11 ppts
22. Garrett Hartley NO (at GBY): 4.83 ppts
23. Jay Feely ARZ (vs MIA): 4.75 ppts
24. Nick Folk NYJ (vs SFO): 4.67 ppts

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 10+ pts)

1.  Bears CHI (at DAL): 11.97 ppts
2.  Seahawks SEA (at STL): 11.64 ppts

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 6-10 pts)

3.  Cardinals ARZ (vs MIA): 7.81 ppts
4.  Packers GBY (vs NO): 7.56 ppts
5.  Giants NYG (at PHL): 7.45 ppts
6.  Ravens BAL (vs CLE): 6.88 ppts
7.  Jets NYJ (vs SFO): 6.21 ppts

TIER 3 (“MATCHUP STARTS”: Projected Points – 4-6 pts)

8.  Eagles PHL (vs NYG): 5.54 ppts
9.  Texans HOU (vs TEN): 4.99 ppts
10.  Bengals CIN (at JAX): 4.83 ppts
11.  49ers SFO (at NYJ): 4.70 ppts
12.  Falcons ATL (vs CAR): 4.61 ppts
13.  Cowboys DAL (vs CHI): 4.46 ppts
14.  Lions DET (vs MIN): 4.37 ppts
15.  Patriots NE (at BUF): 4.37 ppts
16.  Buccaneers TBY (vs WSH): 4.31 ppts

TIER 4 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – <4 o:p="o:p" pts="pts">

17.  Saints NO (at GBY): 3.56 ppts
18.  Bills BUF (vs NE): 3.49 ppts
19.  Broncos DEN (vs OAK): 3.49 ppts
20.  Chargers SDG (at KCY): 3.29 ppts
21.  Vikings MIN (at DET): 3.27 ppts
22.  Redskins WSH (at TBY): 3.06 ppts
23.  Titans TEN (at HOU): 2.71 ppts
24.  Chiefs KCY (vs SDG): 2.61 ppts

WEEK 4 INJURIES

OUT (0% of playing)

RUNNING BACKS

Peyton Hillis KCY (ankle) (Beneficiary: Jamaal Charles)
Beanie Wells ARZ (IR, toe) (Beneficiary: Ryan Williams)
Roy Helu WSH (IR, toe) (Beneficiary: Alfred Morris)
Rashard Mendenhall PIT (knee) (Beneficiaries: Isaac Redman/Jonathan Dwyer)
Brandon Jacobs SFO (knee) (Beneficiary: Kendall Hunter)

WIDE RECEIVERS

Hakeem Nicks NYG (foot, knee) (Beneficiary: Ramses Barden)
Stephen Hill NYJ (hamstring) (Beneficiary: Jeremy Kerley)
Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK (concussion, neck) (Beneficiary:
Kenny Britt TEN (ankle) (Beneficiary: Kendall Wright)

TIGHT ENDS

Aaron Hernandez NE (ankle) (Beneficiary: Rob Gronkowski)
Dustin Keller NYJ (hamstring) (Beneficiary: Jeff Cumberland)

KICKER

Nate Kaeding SDG (right groin) (Beneficiary: Nick Novak)

QUESTIONABLE (50% of playing)

RUNNING BACKS

Reggie Bush MIA (knee) (Possible beneficiary: Daniel Thomas)
Matt Forte CHI (ankle) (Possible beneficiary: Michael Bush)
Bernard Scott CIN (ankle)
Mike Goodson OAK (hamstring)

WIDE RECEIVERS

Pierre Garcon WSH (foot) (Possible beneficiary: Leonard Hankerson)

TIGHT ENDS

Brandon Myers OAK (concussion) (Possible beneficiary: David Ausberry)

PROBABLE (75% of playing)

RB: Darren McFadden OAK (shoulder), Willis McGahee DEN (ribs), LeSean McCoy PHL (rib), Ahmad Bradshaw NYG (neck), Rashad Jennings JAX (knee), James Starks GBY (toe), Evan Royster WSH (knee)
WR: Miles Austin DAL (hamstring), Greg Jennings GBY (groin), Jeremy Maclin PHL (hip), Leonard Hankerson WSH (back), Laurent Robinson JAX (concussion)
TE: Jacob Tamme DEN (groin)
K: Sebastian Janikowski OAK (left groin)

START ‘EM/SIT ‘EM

(number before player name is this week’s positional rankings)

QUARTERBACKS

START: #1 Matt Schaub HOU (vs TEN): Owned in 98%/Starting in 22% of CBSSports.com leagues
START: #8 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF (vs NE): 74 O%/9 St% (CBS)
SIT: #15 Philip Rivers SDG (at KCY): 99 O%/71 St% (CBS)
SIT: #17 Michael Vick PHL (vs NYG): 99 O%/72 St% (CBS)

RUNNING BACKS

START: #3 BenJarvis Green-Ellis CIN (at JAX): 100 O%/84 St% (CBS)
START: #8 Willis McGahee DEN (vs OAK): 99 O%/61 St% (CBS)
SIT: #28 Reggie Bush MIA (at ARZ): 100 O%/91 St% (CBS)
SIT: #40 Alfred Morris WSH (at TBY): 99 O%/78 St% (CBS)

WIDE RECEIVERS

START: #6 Vincent Jackson TBY (vs WSH): 100 O%/69 St% (CBS)
START: #9 Torrey Smith BAL (vs CLE): 100 O%/39 St% (CBS)
SIT: #31 Dwayne Bowe KCY (vs SDG): 100 O%/95 St% (CBS)
SIT: #36 Malcom Floyd SDG (at KCY): 100 O%/72 St% (CBS)

TIGHT ENDS

START: #5 Owen Daniels HOU (vs TEN): 87 O%/42 St% (CBS)
START: #6 David Ausberry OAK (at DEN): 0 O%/0 St% (CBS)
SIT: #13 Brent Celek PHL (vs NYG): 94 O%/66 St% (CBS)
SIT: #14 Jermichael Finley GBY (vs NO): 100 O%/100 St% (CBS)

KICKERS

START: #4 Shayne Graham HOU (vs TEN): 61 O%/47 St% (CBS)
SIT: #22 Garrett Hartley NO (at GBY): 88 O%/87 St% (CBS)

THE BARGAIN BIN

(number before player name is this week’s positional rankings)

Just as our Week 3 Bargain Bin was AFC-centric, our Week 4 Bargain Bin has all but one player coming from the NFC.

QUARTERBACKS

#20 Blaine Gabbert JAX (vs CIN): Owned in 12%/Starting in 0% of CBSSports.com leagues
#22 Russell Wilson SEA (at STL): 40 O%/2 St% (CBS)

WIDE RECEIVERS

#29 Leonard Hankerson WSH (at TBY): 17 O%/4 St% (CBS)

KICKERS

#6 Blair Walsh MIN (at DEN): 40 O%/13 St% (CBS)

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

#16 Buccaneers TBY (vs WSH): 33 O%/2 St% (CBS)

Key:
O% - Percentage that player is owned in CBSSports.com leagues
St% - Percentage that player is started in CBSSports.com league lineups

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