Sunday, October 27, 2013

NFL 2013: Week 8 Picks

The straight up picks which we pick week-to-week has now finally caught up to the picks we made before the season started, as a 10-5 week of the weekly picks moved our record to 63-44 on the season.  The picks we made in preseason netted an 8-7 record to fall to that same 63-44 record.  But, the 10-5 record was our second-best showing in picking winners, while the 7-8 record against the spread was tied for our third-best week in the season’s first seven weeks.


JOIN US!

It is never too late to join and see how you measure up against me and other listeners who participate.  You can enter your picks and join the groups I created for the show.  The winner will be touted on the Saturday show and, if you top the charts, you could even call in to give me your picks!  Here is how:

Game
Goal
Where to Play
Group to Join
Eliminator Challenge
Pick 1 winner per week, no repeat picks (a.k.a. Knockout Pool)
Pigskin Pick’Em (Straight Up)
Pick a winner for each game, every week
Pigskin Pick’Em (Against the Spread)
Pick a winner against the point spread for each game, every week
NFL Gridiron Challenge
Pick a team of players with a $50 million salary cap

KNOCKOUT POOL/ESPN.com ELIMINATOR CHALLENGE

Week 6 brought our fourth straight win in the Eliminator Challenge, with Green Bay handling Cleveland easily, 31-13.  We have lost twice this season, but we are gaining momentum with those four straight wins.  Our wins have been routs, as the five wins have a scoring margin of +92, while the two losses have been by a total of five points.

This week’s pick: New Orleans defeating Buffalo

The Saints at home are always a good pick.  Add in that Buffalo is featuring a rookie quarterback in Thad Lewis, and their most explosive skill position player, C.J. Spiller, is doubtful with an ankle injury, that makes the pick even easier.  The Saints have a lot of weapons, even if Jimmy Graham is a little banged up.  The Saints are 12.5-point favorites and I do not think it will be that close.

PAST PICKS
Week 1: Tampa Bay (L at NYJ)
Week 2: Cincinnati (W vs. PIT)
Week 3: Minnesota (L vs. CLE)
Week 4: Indianapolis (W at JAX)
Week 5: St. Louis (W vs. JAX)
Week 6: Denver (W vs. JAX)
Week 7: Green Bay (W vs. CLE)

GAME PICKS/ESPN.com PIGSKIN PICK ‘EM

Here are the game picks for this week.  We talk about the local games and the three of the other most important games, our “Big Games”, on our weekly This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Saturdays, but we pick every game, every week here on the blog.  New this year is the listing of our preseason pick we made for our NFL Preview series on the show.  This will give you an idea on what I thought of each team before the season and what I am thinking of each team during the season.

ALL GAMES

RESULTS
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Preseason Pick
SEASON
63-44 (.589)
46-61 (.430)
63-44 (.589)
LAST WEEK (Week 7)
10-5
7-8
8-7

LOCAL GAMES

RESULTS
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Preseason Pick
SEASON
11-14
7-18
11-14
LAST WEEK (Week 7)
2-1
2-1
1-2
WEEK 7 LOCAL GAME PICKS
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Preseason Pick
Miami at New England (Sunday 1pm)
NE
NE (-6.5)
NE
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (Sunday 1pm)
PHL
PHL (-5.5)
PHL
N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati (Sunday 4pm)
CIN
NYJ (+6.5)
CIN

BIG GAMES

RESULTS
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Preseason Pick
SEASON
10-11
10-11
11-10
LAST WEEK (Week 7)
1-2
1-2
1-2
WEEK 7 BIG GAME PICKS
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Preseason Pick
Dallas at Detroit (Sunday 1pm)
DET
DET (-2.5)
DAL
Atlanta at Arizona (Sunday 4pm)
ATL
ATL (+2.5)
ATL
Washington at Denver (Sunday 4pm)
DEN
DEN (-13.5)
DEN

OTHER GAMES

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Preseason Pick
SEASON
42-19
29-32
41-20
LAST WEEK (Week 7)
7-2
4-5
6-3
WEEK 7 OTHER GAME PICKS
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Preseason Pick
Carolina at Tampa Bay (Thursday night)
CAR
CAR (-6.5)
CAR
Buffalo at New Orleans (Sunday 1pm)
NO
NO (-12.5)
NO
Cleveland at Kansas City (Sunday 1pm)
KCY
KCY (-7.5)
KCY
San Francisco vs. Jacksonville (Sunday 1pm)
SFO
JAX (+16.5)
SFO
Pittsburgh at Oakland (Sunday 4pm)
PIT
PIT (-2.5)
PIT
Green Bay at Minnesota (Sunday night)
GBY
GBY (-9.5)
MIN
Seattle at St. Louis (Monday night)
SEA
SEA (-10.5)
SEA

START ‘EM/ANTI-START ‘EM/ESPN.com GRIDIRON CHALLENGE

We are participating in the ESPN Gridiron Challenge on ESPN.com again this season.  The object is to pick the best team possible with a $50 million salary cap.  The salary cap moves up if the value of your players increases.  However, we have added another wrinkle.  The object of the ESPN.com is to buy low and sell high and the more you accomplish that, the more money you get in your salary cap.  My goal is to put together a nine-man unit (2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) that is better than another nine-man unit at a similar price.

Week 7 was the best week of the season for us in this game.  The Start ‘Em Team scored 125 points, which is the high-water mark of the season.  The win moved us over .500, the winning margin put us over the break-even mark for point differential (+20 for the season), and the five wins and a tie in the nine position-by-position comparisons advanced our winning percentage to .556 for the season.

WEEK 1: Head-to-Head – L, 100-137; By Position: 2-7
WEEK 2: Head-to-Head – L, 86-116; By Position: 3-5-1
WEEK 3: Head-to-Head – W, 114-95; By Position: 6-3
WEEK 4: Head-to-Head – W, 118-48; By Position: 7-2
WEEK 5: Head-to-Head – L, 116-128; By Position: 6-2-1
WEEK 6: Head-to-Head – L, 81-102; By Position: 4-5
WEEK 7: Head-to-Head – W, 125-94; By Position: 5-3-1
SEASON: 4-3 W-L (.571), 740 PF, 720 PA (50.7% of points), 33-26-3 by position (.556)

Here is the Week 8 entry in the Gridrion Challenge, our “Start ‘Em” team, along with our comparable “Anti-Start ‘Em” team, which is our “opponent” for the week.

 (all dollar figures in millions)

Start ‘Em Team

POS

Anti-Start ‘Em Team

Russell Wilson SEA ($6.3)
QB
Matt Ryan ATL ($6.7)
Eli Manning NYG ($5.6)
QB
Geno Smith NYJ ($5.9)
Alfred Morris WSH ($6.5)
RB
Adrian Peterson MIN ($6.9)
Stevan Ridley NE ($5.9)
RB
Zac Stacy STL ($6)
Jordy Nelson GBY ($6.5)
WR
A.J. Green CIN ($6.8)
Antonio Brown PIT ($5.7)
WR
Larry Fitzgerald ARZ ($5.6)
Julius Thomas DEN ($6.1)
TE
Charles Clay MIA ($5.3)
Matt Prater DEN ($4.8)
K
Shaun Suisham PIT ($4.6)
Seattle Seahawks SEA ($5.7)
DEF
Dallas Cowboys DAL ($5.4)
$53.1 million
TOTAL
$53.2 million


Catch me on "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesdays at 11pm ET and Saturdays at 11am ET. We'll break down these picks and look ahead to next week on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment, Saturday morning at 11am ET.

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