Saturday, January 9, 2010

Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition - Wild Card Weekend

The season is over and while our preseason predictions for each team will be broken down after the Super Bowl on the Sports With The StatMan show, let's get into the predictions for the four games of Wild Card Weekend. Also, even though the regular season is over, playoff fantasy leagues are gaining popularity, so naturally we will have a playoff version of Start 'Em and Sit 'Em.

Before we talk about this week, let's review last week. The 300-yard passers, 100-yard rushers, and 100-yard receivers are in the Show Notes from last week (#40), but here are the top fantasy scorers at each position:

Week 17 Top Fantasy Performers
Quarterback
1. Brett Favre MIN - 32 points (25-for-31, 316 yards, 4 TD (10,4,12,1), 0 INT, 1 rush for 2 yards)
2. Jay Cutler CHI - 29 points (22-for-36, 276 yards, 4 TD (7,9,1,12), 0 INT, 1 rush for 5 yards)
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF - 28 points (16-for-25, 155 yards, 3 TD (11,21,41), 0 INT, 1 rush for 7 yards)

Running Back
1. Jamaal Charles KCY - 39 points (25 rushes for 259 yards, 2 TD (5,56), 1 rec for 3 yards)
2. Willis McGahee BAL - 34 points (16 rushes for 167 yards, 3 TD (2,77,2))
3. Fred Jackson BUF - 30 points (33 rushes for 212 yards, 2 rec for 15 yards, 1 rec TD (11))

Wide Receiver
1. Jabar Gaffney DEN - 21 points (14 rec for 213 yards)
2. Sidney Rice MIN - 21 points (6 rec for 112 yards, 2 TD (4,12))
3. Brad Smith NYJ - 19 points (4 rushes for 92 yards, 1 rush TD (32))

Tight End
1. Vernon Davis SFO - 24 points (6 rec for 89 yards, 1 TD (73))
2. Zach Miller JAX - 24 points (8 rec for 69 yards, 2 TD (6,15))
T3. Joel Dreessen HOU - 22 points (6 rec for 81 yards, 1 TD (25))
T3. Visanthe Shiancoe MIN - 22 points (7 rec for 94 yards, 1 TD (10))

Kicker
1. Ryan Succop KCY - 17 points (3-for-3 (20,36,47) in field goals, 5-for-5 in extra points)
T2. Jay Feely NYJ - 16 points (3-for-3 (20,39,40) in field goals, 4-for-4 in extra points)
T2. Robbie Gould CHI - 16 points (3-for-3 (44,28,34) in field goals, 4-for-4 in extra points)
T2. Jason Hanson DET - 16 points (3-for-3 (42,48,32) in field goals, 2-for-2 in extra points)

Defense/Special Team
1. Packers GBY - 17 points (3 INT, 1 safety, 1 INT return TD (45), 7 points allowed)
2. Jets NYJ - 16 points (1 INT, 3 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, 0 points allowed)
T3. 49ers SFO/Chiefs KCY/Cowboys DAL - 15 points each

For the season, several local players made the top three at each position, but here are the top three at each fantasy position, as well as the top three players in our local area of New York, Boston, and Philadelphia:

Season Top Fantasy Performers
Quarterback
1. Aaron Rodgers GBY - 409 points (4,434 passing yards, 30 TD, 7 INT, 103.2 rating, 304 rushing yards, 5 rushing TD, 4 fumbles lost)
2. Drew Brees NO - 366 points (4,388 passing yards, 34 TD, 11 INT, 109.6 rating, 33 rushing yards, 2 TD, 1 rec for minus-4 yards, 6 fumbles lost)
3. Tom Brady NE - 335 points (4,398 passing yards, 28 TD, 13 INT, 96.2 rating, 44 rushing yards, 1 TD, 2 fumbles lost)
Local QBs: 3. Brady NE (335 points), 10. Eli Manning NYG (292), 11. Donovan McNabb PHL (286)

Running Back
1. Chris Johnson TEN - 358 points (2,006 rushing yards (5.6 ypc), 14 TD, 50 rec for 503 yards (10.1 avg), 2 rec TD, 3 fumbles lost)
2. Maurice Jones-Drew JAX - 250 points (1,391 rushing yards (4.5 ypc), 15 TD, 53 rec for 374 yards (7.1 avg), 1 rec TD, 1 fumble lost)
3. Adrian Peterson MIN - 247 points (1,389 rushing yards (4.4 ypc), 18 TD, 43 rec for 436 yards (10.1 avg), 6 fumbles lost)
Local RBs: 6. Thomas Jones NYJ (209 points), T27. Brandon Jacobs NYG (122), 29. Ahmad Bradshaw NYG (119)

Wide Receiver
1. Miles Austin DAL - 212 points (81 rec for 1,320 yards (16.3 avg), 11 TD, 2 rushes for minus-2 yards)
2. Andre Johnson HOU - 211 points (101 rec for 1,569 yards (15.5 avg), 9 TD, 2 rushes for 10 yards)
3. DeSean Jackson PHL - 209 points (63 rec for 1,167 yards (18.5 avg), 9 TD, 11 rushes for 137 yards (12.5 avg), 1 rush TD, 1 fumble lost)
Local WRs: 3. Jackson PHL (209 points), 4. Randy Moss NE (205), 12. Wes Welker NE (153)

Tight End
1. Dallas Clark IND - 261 points (100 rec for 1,106 yards (11.1 avg), 10 TD, 2 rushes for 11 yards (5.5 avg))
2. Vernon Davis SFO - 244 points (78 rec for 965 yards (12.4 avg), 13 TD)
3. Antonio Gates SDG - 235 points (79 rec for 1,157 yards (14.6 avg), 8 TD)
Local TEs: 4. Brent Celek PHL (211 points), 16. Kevin Boss NYG (120), 19. Dustin Keller NYJ (100)

Kicker
1. David Akers PHL - 172 points (32-for-37 on field goals, 43-for-45 on extra points)
2. Nate Kaeding SDG - 171 points (32-for-35 on field goals, 50-for-51 on extra points)
T3. Jay Feely NYJ - 159 points (30-for-36 on field goals, 32-for-32 on extra points)
T3. Ryan Longwell MIN - 159 points (26-for-28 on field goals, 54-for-55 on extra points)
Local Ks: 1. Akers PHL (172 points), T3. Feely NYJ (159), 6. Stephen Gostkowski NE (153)

Defense/Special Team
1. Eagles PHL - 158 points (25 INT, 2 safeties, 44 sacks, 13 fumble recoveries, 6 D/ST TD, 337 points allowed)
2. Packers GBY - 154 points (30 INT, 1 safety, 37 sacks, 10 fumble recoveries, 4 D/ST TD, 297 points allowed)
3. 49ers SFO - 153 points (18 INT, 44 sacks, 15 fumble recoveries, 4 D/ST TD, 281 points allowed)
Local D/STs: 1. Eagles PHL (158 points), 4. Jets NYJ (147), 11. Patriots NE (126)

***

Three of the four Wild Card games involve local area teams. Only the Packers-Cardinals, which is the late afternoon game on Sunday, does not involve the local playoff qualifiers (Patriots, Jets, Eagles):

WILD CARD WEEKEND SCHEDULE
Saturday 4:30pm - N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati (-2.5)
Saturday 8pm - Philadelphia at Dallas (-4)
Sunday 1pm - Baltimore at New England (-3)
Sunday 4:30pm - Green Bay at Arizona (Pick 'em)

Wild Card Picks:
NYJ-CIN: Jets (+2.5) win outright
The Jets might only beat one or two other teams in the AFC Playoffs, but the Bengals are the team the Jets probably match up the best against. The Bengals saw what the Jets have, but that may not stop the Jets from winning. The Jets will run the ball and the Bengals will win their first playoff game in 19 years if they make Sanchez have to beat them.

PHL-DAL: Eagles (+4) win outright
Teams rarely sweep a season series from a divisional rival and win against them again in the playoffs. Dallas is trying to do just that, as Tony Romo tries to win his first playoff game and Wade Phillips tries to navigate a Cowboys team to their first playoff win in 13 years. The Eagles will have more success against the Cowboys secondary than the Cowboys will against the Eagles defensive backfield.

BAL-NE: Patriots (-3) win and cover
This is the easiest game to pick, but the best news for the Ravens was the injury to WR Wes Welker. Julian Edelman will sub for Welker and will do almost as well. The Ravens have a great defensive history, but in recent memory, their defense is overrated and their penalties come at the worst times.

GBY-ARZ: Cardinals (Pick 'em) win/cover
In a game that will undoubtedly be closer than last week's 33-7 Packer win, Anquan Boldin may not play, which would be a big loss for Arizona before they even kick the ball off. But, the defending NFC Champions, backed by Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner will win if they win if the Cardinal defensive line can win the battle in the trenches.

Start 'Em/Sit 'Em
QB: Joe Flacco BAL (start) vs. Carson Palmer CIN (sit)
New England is vulnerable deep and Flacco has two games of playoff experience. If a banged-up Chad Ochocinco is shut down by Darrelle Revis, Palmer will have to rely on ex-Jet Laveranues Coles.

RB: Chris Wells ARZ (start) vs. Marion Barber DAL (sit)
Wells has gained playing time and big minutes during the season, so he is pretty fresh for this game. In order for play action passing to work for the Cardinals, the running game will at least have to keep the Packers honest. Barber is part of a three-headed monster against a good Eagles defense that will try to stop Barber from bouncing to the outside.

WR: Julian Edelman NE (start) vs. Anquan Boldin ARZ (sit)
Edelman may be the biggest surprise of this round, as he will try to fill Wes Welker's big shoes. Randy Moss will draw more coverage and Edelman could make the Ravens sorry. Boldin is hampered by an ankle injury and may not play much for the Cardinals.

Playoff Team Rankings
Quarterbacks
1. Rodgers GBY, 2. Brady NE, 3. McNabb PHL, 4. Romo DAL, 5. Flacco BAL, 6. Warner ARZ, 7. Palmer CIN, 8. Sanchez NYJ

Rushing
1. Jones/Greene NYJ, 2. Rice/McGahee BAL, 3. Barber/Jones/Choice DAL, 4. Benson/Johnson/Scott CIN, 5. Grant/Jackson GBY, 6. Westbrook/McCoy PHL, 7. Maroney/Morris/Taylor NE, 8. Wells/Hightower ARZ

Receiving (WR/WR/TE)
1. Austin/Williams/Witten DAL, 2. Jackson/Maclin/Celek PHL, 3. Jennings/Driver/Finley GBY, 4. Fitzgerald/Boldin/Becht ARZ, 5. Moss/Edelman/Watson NE, 6. Cotchery/Edwards/Keller NYJ, 7. Ochocinco/Coles/Foschi CIN, 8. Mason/Clayton/Heap BAL

Kicking
1. Gostkowski NE, 2. Akers PHL, 3. Crosby GBY, 4. Feely NYJ, 5. Rackers ARZ, 6. Graham CIN, 7. Cundiff BAL, 8. Suisham DAL

Coaching
1. Belichick NE, 2. Reid PHL, 3. Whisenhunt ARZ, 4. Harbaugh BAL, 5. McCarthy GBY, 6. Lewis CIN, 7. Ryan NYJ, 8. Phillips DAL

Defense/Special Teams
1. NYJ, 2. BAL, 3. PHL, 4. NE, 5. GBY, 6. CIN, 7. ARZ, 8. DAL

Total Rankings
T1. NE (19), T1. PHL (19), 3. GBY (22), 4. NYJ (27), 5. BAL (28), 6. DAL (32), 7. ARZ (33), 8. CIN (36)

Final Regular Season Pick Standings
Local Games: 39-25 (straight up), 34-29-1 (against the spread)
Big Games: 37-18 (straight up), 29-24-2 (against the spread)
Knockout Pool picks: 13-4
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em: Starts avg 13.43 points, Sits avg 7.91 points (+5.52)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Head-to-Head: 30-11-1 (QB: 11-3, RB: 10-3-1, WR: 9-5)

We will break down each of the four Wild Card matchups on Sports With The StatMan (#41) this Sunday night, January 10th. Join us at our new time, 8-9pm Eastern. We will be among the first to analyze the Divisional Championship games. Besides football, we'll talk about the moves the Mets still have to make. We will also have some NHL talk, as the Bruins and Rangers met twice this week and the week of outdoor hockey at Fenway comes to an end.

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:
• “Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com

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