Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Introducing: The StatMan Contender Index

I would like to introduce a new metric in trying to predict which Major League Baseball team will make the playoffs during a baseball season. It is a quick look on a team's postseason chances and reduces it to a number. You can use the actual number or turn it into a percentage by multiplying the number by 100.  It is called the StatMan Contender Index (SCI) and takes the following information into account:

* Strength of remaining schedule, determined by the winning percentage of a team's opposition
* Magic numbers and elimination numbers for the division and Wild Card
* Games remaining for the regular season

The percentages between all contenders do not add up to 100%.  It may also seem that a team which is "out of the race" still seems to have a significant chance of qualifying for the playoffs.  In these cases, it is best to evaluate  a poor team's SCI with the SCI of its main competition for the division or the Wild Card.

We hope you enjoy this metric. Over time, if we can, we will look to refine it and add a little more complexity to improve its accuracy.

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