Monday, August 22, 2011

StatMan Contender Index: Week of August 22nd, 2011

The StatMan Contender Index is an index that looks at a team's remaining schedule, its standing, and the number of remaining games in the season to determine how much of a chance the team has of making the playoffs.  It is on a scale from 0 to 1 with a higher number meaning a greater chance of making the playoffs. Click here for the explanation of the StatMan Contender Index (SCI).

#  Team SCI (Change/Last week) - W-L, WPCT - Standing in Division, number of games ahead or back (week) - WPCT for rest of season/WPCT for next two weeks (8/22-9/4)
1. Philadelphia .8404 (+.1269) - 81-44, .648 (3-4) - 1st in NL East, 6.5 GA - .500/.467 (Last week: 1)
2. Milwaukee .6495 (+.0764) - 76-52, 594 (6-1) - 1st in NL Central, 8.5 GA - .484/.443 (LW: 4)
3. Atlanta .6270 (+.1036) - 76-52, .594 (6-1) - 2nd in NL East, 6.5 GB - .502/.462 (NLWC Leader) (LW: 7)
4. NY Yankees .6209 (-.0091) - 77-48, .616 (5-2) - 1st in AL East, 0.5 GA - .497/.479 (LW: 2)
5. Boston - .5745 (-.0290) - 77-49, .611 (4-3) - 2nd in AL East, 0.5 GB - .521/.553 (LW: 3)
6. San Francisco .5425 (+.0126) - 68-60, .531 (2-5) - 2nd in NL West, 1.5 GB - .458/.433 (LW: 6)
7. Arizona .5397 (+.0211) - 69-58, .543 (1-5) - 1st in NL West, 1.5 GA - .476/.486 (LW: 9)
8. Detroit .5373 (+.0030) - 68-58, .540 (4-2) - 1st in AL Central, 4.5 GA - .463/.480 (LW: 5)
9. Texas .5133 (-.0077) - 73-55, .570 (4-3) - 1st in AL West, 4 GA - .517/.581 (LW: 8)
10. LA Angels .4865 (+.0100) - 69-59, .539 (4-3) - 2nd in AL West, 4 GA - .483/.476 (LW: 12)
Other Local Teams:
25. NY Mets .2770 (-.0744) - 60-66, .476 (2-4) - 4th in NL East, 21.5 GB - .525/.537 (LW: 21)

Analysis: Philadelphia continues their march to a Red October, as their chances went up over 12.7%.  Most people would say the Phillies have a 100% chance of making the playoffs.  But, the Braves picked up three games on the Phillies, as did the Brewers in the quest for the best record in the National League.  The second biggest jump (10.4%) belongs to Atlanta, who is now eight games ahead in the Wild Card race.  San Francisco is the team with the best SCI which does not to have a division lead or a Wild Card lead.  The Giants are ranked higher than Arizona based on their opponents the rest of the way.  Another race that seemingly got a bit tighter, though it really did not, is in the American League West, where Texas dropped a smidge in the SCI and the Angels gained a percentage point in their quest to stay alive in the playoff hunt.

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