Sunday, November 25, 2012

Week 12 NFL Picks


The success in the Knockout Pool continued last week, but the success was by the hair of our chinny-chin-chin.  Picking Dallas in November is normally a good bet, but Cleveland tested that theory, and our patience, as the Cowboys finally disposed of the Browns in overtime to help us to our 11th straight victory to start the season.

This week’s pick: Indianapolis defeating Buffalo

Now, we are starting to get to the nitty-gritty.  I was thinking of Denver over Kansas City, but I do not like going with a road team in a Knockout Pool.  How about Cincinnati, at home against Oakland?  Carson Palmer could have a revenge win against his old team that gave up on him.  Instead, I will go with the Colts.  Indianapolis is gunning for the playoffs and they hit a speed bump in Foxboro last week against the Patriots.  But, they are back home and heading into a game where they are favored.  I like the Colts to pick up where they left off a couple of weeks ago and come up winners in this one.

Week 1: Houston (W vs. MIA)
Week 2: N.Y. Giants (W vs. TBY)
Week 3: Chicago (W vs. STL)
Week 4: Baltimore (W vs. CLE)
Week 5: San Francisco (W vs. BUF)
Week 6: N.Y. Jets (W vs. IND)
Week 7: Minnesota (W vs. ARZ)
Week 8: Green Bay (W vs. JAX)
Week 9: Seattle (W vs. MIN)
Week 10: Pittsburgh (W vs. KCY)
Week 11: Dallas (W vs. CLE)


Here are the game picks for this week.  We also have a “Sports With the StatMan” entry in the Pigskin Pick ‘Em for games against the spread.  We talk about the local games and the three of the other most important games, our “Big Games”, on our weekly This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Saturdays, but we pick every game, every week here on the blog.  Here they are:


Last Week: 2-1 straight up, 2-1 against the spread
Season: 25-13 straight up, 20-17-1 against the spread

Week 12 Picks:
New England at N.Y. Jets – Straight Up: NE, Against the Spread: NYJ (+6.5)
Green Bay at N.Y. Giants – Straight Up: NYG, Against the Spread: NYG (-2.5)
Carolina at Philadelphia – Straight Up: CAR, Against the Spread: CAR (+2.5)


Last Week: 2-1 straight up, 2-1 against the spread
Season: 27-7 straight up, 19-15 against the spread

Week 12 Picks:
Minnesota at Chicago – Straight Up: CHI, Against the Spread: CHI (-5.5)
Atlanta at Tampa Bay – Straight Up: ATL, Against the Spread: ATL (-0.5)
San Francisco at New Orleans – Straight Up: SFO, Against the Spread: SFO (-1.5)


Last Week: 8-0 straight up, 5-3 against the spread
Season: 57-31 straight up, 46-42 against the spread

Week 12 Picks:
Houston at Detroit – Straight Up: DET, Against the Spread: DET (+3.5)
Washington at Dallas – Straight Up: DAL, Against the Spread: DAL (-3.5)
Oakland at Cincinnati – Straight Up: CIN, Against the Spread: OAK (+7.5)
Pittsburgh at Cleveland – Straight Up: CLE, Against the Spread: CLE (+3.5)
Buffalo at Indianapolis – Straight Up: IND, Against the Spread: IND (-3.5)
Denver at Kansas City – Straight Up: DEN, Against the Spread: DEN (-10.5)
Seattle at Miami – Straight Up: SEA, Against the Spread: SEA (-2.5)
Tennessee at Jacksonville – Straight Up: TEN, Against the Spread: TEN (-2.5)
Baltimore at San Diego – Straight Up: BAL, Against the Spread: BAL (-0.5)
St. Louis at Arizona – Straight Up: ARZ, Against the Spread: ARZ (-2.5)


We are participating in the ESPN Gridiron Challenge on  The object is to pick the best team possible with a $50 million salary cap.  However, we are adding another wrinkle.  The object of the is to buy low and sell high and the more you accomplish that, the more money you get in your salary cap.  My goal is to put together a nine-man unit (2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) that is better than another nine-man unit at a similar price.

So far this season, my nine-man squad is 5-5-1 against a comparable squad:

Week 1: Head-to-Head – L, 107-124; By Position – 2-6-1
Week 2: Head-to-Head – L, 73-98; By Position – 3-6
Week 3: Head-to-Head – L, 103-139; By Position – 3-6
Week 4: Head-to-Head – L, 105-118; By Position – 4-5
Week 5: Head-to-Head – W, 110-56; By Position – 7-2
Week 6: Head-to-Head – L, 98-127; By Position – 2-6-1
Week 7: Head-to-Head – W, 119-80; By Position – 6-3
Week 8: Head-to-Head – T, 75-75; By Position – 3-5-1
Week 9: Head-to-Head – W, 138-105; By Position – 4-4-1
Week 10: Head-to-Head – W, 145-43; By Position – 9-0
Week 11: Head-to-Head – W, 100-65; By Position – 5-4
TOTALS: W-L: 5-5-1, PF: 1173, PA: 1020, By Position: 48-47-4

Here is the Week 12 entry in the Gridrion Challenge, our “Start ‘Em” team, along with our comparable “Anti-Start ‘Em” team, which is our opponent for the week:

(all dollar figures in millions)

Start ‘Em Team


Anti-Start ‘Em Team

Carson Palmer OAK ($6.8)
Cam Newton CAR ($7.1)
Jake Locker TEN ($5.5)
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF ($6.1)
C.J. Spiller BUF ($7.4)
Marshawn Lynch SEA ($8.2)
Jacquizz Rodgers ATL ($5.1)
Reggie Bush MIA ($6.5)
Larry Fitzgerald ARZ ($6.4)
DeSean Jackson PHL ($6.1)
Hakeem Nicks NYG ($5.4)
Andre Roberts ARZ ($5.1)
Dwayne Allen IND ($4.8)
Jacob Tamme DEN ($4.5)
Robbie Gould CHI ($4.4)
Alex Henery PHL ($3.8)
Cleveland Browns CLE ($4.2)
Oakland Raiders OAK ($2.6)
$50.0 million
$50.0 million

Catch me on "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesdays at 11pm ET and Saturdays at 11am ET. We'll break down these picks and look ahead to next week on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment, Saturday morning at 11am ET.

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