Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Week 9 NFL Picks


At the halfway mark of the season, we are still alive.  We picked Green Bay last week and they handled Jacksonville, though it was closer than people expected. There are less than 9,000 left in the ESPN.com Eliminator Challenge as of Sunday morning.

This week’s pick: Seattle defeating Minnesota

We picked Minnesota a couple of weeks ago, so why the change of heart?  Seattle is fantastic at home and I checked the weather forecast for Seattle on Sunday and, surprise, it looked like rain.  Minnesota is a dome team with a young quarterback.  Yes, Seattle has a younger quarterback, but their defense is stout, the 12th Man will be in full throat, and the Seahawks are used to playing in this weather.  Add it all up and I am going with the Seahawks at home to give us nine in a row.

Week 1: Houston (W vs. MIA)
Week 2: N.Y. Giants (W vs. TBY)
Week 3: Chicago (W vs. STL)
Week 4: Baltimore (W vs. CLE)
Week 5: San Francisco (W vs. BUF)
Week 6: N.Y. Jets (W vs. IND)
Week 7: Minnesota (W vs. ARZ)
Week 8: Green Bay (W vs. JAX)


Here are the game picks for this week.  We also have a “Sports With the StatMan” entry in the ESPN.com Pigskin Pick ‘Em for games against the spread.  We talk about the local games and the three of the other most important games, our “Big Games”, on our weekly This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Saturdays, but we pick every game, every week here on the blog.  Here they are:


Last Week: 2-2 straight up, 2-2 against the spread
Season: 19-10 straight up, 17-11-1 against the spread

Week 9 Picks:
Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants – Straight Up: NYG, Against the Spread: NYG (-3.5)
Philadelphia at New Orleans – Straight Up: NO, Against the Spread: PHL (+3.5)
Bye: New England, N.Y. Jets


Last Week: 3-0 straight up, 0-3 against the spread
Season: 21-4 straight up, 13-12 against the spread

Week 9 Picks:
Baltimore at Cleveland – Straight Up: BAL, Against the Spread: BAL (-3.5)
Miami at Indianapolis – Straight Up: IND, Against the Spread: IND (+2.5)
Dallas at Atlanta – Straight Up: ATL, Against the Spread: ATL (-4.5)


Last Week: 4-3 straight up, 3-4 against the spread
Season: 36-28 straight up, 29-35 against the spread

Week 9 Picks:
Kansas City at San Diego – Straight Up: SDG, Against the Spread: KCY (+8.5)
Arizona at Green Bay – Straight Up: GBY, Against the Spread: GBY (-10.5)
Detroit at Jacksonville – Straight Up: DET, Against the Spread: DET (-3.5)
Chicago at Tennessee – Straight Up: CHI, Against the Spread: CHI (-3.5)
Denver at Cincinnati – Straight Up: DEN, Against the Spread: DEN (-3.5)
Carolina at Washington – Straight Up: WSH, Against the Spread: WSH (-3.5)
Buffalo at Houston – Straight Up: HOU, Against the Spread: HOU (-10.5)
Minnesota at Seattle – Straight Up: SEA, Against the Spread: SEA (-4.5)
Tampa Bay at Oakland – Straight Up: TBY, Against the Spread: TBY (+1.5)


We are participating in the ESPN Gridiron Challenge on ESPN.com.  The object is to pick the best team possible with a $50 million salary cap*.  However, we are adding another wrinkle.  The object of the ESPN.com is to buy low and sell high and the more you accomplish that, the more money you get in your salary cap.  My goal is to put together a nine-man unit (2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) that is better than another nine-man unit at a similar price.

So far this season, my nine-man squad is 2-5-1 against a comparable squad:

Week 1: Head-to-Head – L, 107-124; By Position – 2-6-1
Week 2: Head-to-Head – L, 73-98; By Position – 3-6
Week 3: Head-to-Head – L, 103-139; By Position – 3-6
Week 4: Head-to-Head – L, 105-118; By Position – 4-5
Week 5: Head-to-Head – W, 110-56; By Position – 7-2
Week 6: Head-to-Head – L, 98-127; By Position – 2-6-1
Week 7: Head-to-Head – W, 119-80; By Position – 6-3
Week 8: Head-to-Head – T, 75-75; By Position – 3-5-1
TOTALS: W-L: 2-5-1, PF: 790, PA: 807, By Position: 30-39-3

Here is the Week 9 entry in the Gridrion Challenge, our “Start ‘Em” team, along with our comparable “Anti-Start ‘Em” team, which is our opponent for the week:

(all dollar figures in millions)

Start ‘Em Team


Anti-Start ‘Em Team

Josh Freeman TBY ($6.6)
Drew Brees NO ($7.9)
Andrew Luck IND ($6.3)
Eli Manning NYG ($6.2)
LeSean McCoy PHL ($7.8)
Adrian Peterson MIN ($7.8)
Doug Martin TBY ($7.0)
Chris Johnson TEN ($6.9)
Denarius Moore OAK ($6.4)
Miles Austin DAL ($6.8)
Cecil Shorts JAX ($5.5)
Torrey Smith BAL ($5.9)
Jimmy Graham NO ($6.4)
Tony Gonzalez ATL ($6.2)
Lawrence Tynes NYG ($5.6)
Blair Walsh MIN ($4.4)
Minnesota Vikings MIN ($4.5)
Philadelphia Eagles PHL ($4.0)
$56.1 million*
$56.1 million*

* - This week, we do not have a salary cap limit, but the Anti-Start Team has to have the same salary.

Catch me on "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesdays at 11pm ET and Saturdays at 11am ET. We'll break down these picks and look ahead to next week on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment, Saturday morning at 11am ET.

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