Sunday, September 8, 2013

NFL 2013: Week 1 Picks

Welcome to the 2013 NFL season!  We are back with our weekly picks, which you can hear on the Sports With The StatMan Saturday morning show, “This Week in Fantasy Sports”.

JOIN US!

It is never too late to join and see how you measure up against me and other listeners who participate.  You can enter your picks and join the groups I created for the show.  The winner will be touted on the Saturday show and, if you top the charts, you could even call in to give me your picks!  Here is how:

Game
Goal
Where to Play
Group to Join
Eliminator Challenge
Pick 1 winner per week, no repeat picks (a.k.a. Knockout Pool)
Pigskin Pick’Em (Straight Up)
Pick a winner for each game, every week
Pigskin Pick’Em (Against the Spread)
Pick a winner against the point spread for each game, every week
NFL Gridiron Challenge
Pick a team of players with a $50 million salary cap

KNOCKOUT POOL/ESPN.com ELIMINATOR CHALLENGE

Last year, a Week 14 loss kept us from a perfect season.  I know the adage of never picking a road team in the Knockout Pool, but when the home team is the Jets, and the road team has one of its few “gimmes” on the schedule, you pick them because you may not get a chance to pick them again.

This week’s pick: Tampa Bay defeating N.Y. Jets

What was my one loss in the Knockout Pool last year?  It was the Buccaneers against the Eagles, and it was a last-minute Eagles come-from-behind win.  So, what better a way to start this year than to pick the Buccaneers?  I am trying to right a wrong this week, so I am going with the Buccaneers to stop the Jets and rookie QB Geno Smith, as well as use last year’s super rookie, Doug Martin, to control the clock and the game.

GAME PICKS/ESPN.com PIGSKIN PICK ‘EM

Here are the game picks for this week.  We talk about the local games and the three of the other most important games, our “Big Games”, on our weekly This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Saturdays, but we pick every game, every week here on the blog.  Here they are:

LOCAL GAMES

Last Season: 39-21 straight up, 30-29-1 against the spread

WEEK 1 LOCAL GAME PICKS
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Preseason Pick
New England at Buffalo (Sunday 1pm)
NE
NE (-6.5)
NE
Tampa Bay at N.Y. Jets (Sunday 1pm)
TBY
TBY (-1.5)
NYJ
N.Y. Giants at Dallas (Sunday night)
NYG
NYG (+2.5)
NYG
Philadelphia at Washington (Monday 7pm)
WSH
WSH (-4.5)
WSH

BIG GAMES

Last Season: 38-14 straight up, 30-22 against the spread
WEEK 1 BIG GAME PICKS
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Preseason Pick
Atlanta at New Orleans (Sunday 1pm)
ATL
ATL (+2.5)
NO
Cincinnati at Chicago (Sunday 1pm)
CHI
CHI (-3.5)
CIN
Green Bay at San Francisco (Sunday 4pm)
SFO
SFO (-4.5)
SFO

OTHER GAMES

Last Week: 93-51 straight up, 74-70 against the spread
WEEK 1 OTHER GAME PICKS
Straight Up
Against the Spread
Preseason Pick
Baltimore at Denver (Thursday night)
DEN
BAL (+8.5)
DEN
Miami at Cleveland (Sunday 1pm)
CLE
CLE (+0.5)
MIA
Minnesota at Detroit (Sunday 1pm)
MIN
MIN (+3.5)
DET
Tennessee at Pittsburgh (Sunday 1pm)
PIT
TEN (+6.5)
TEN
Oakland at Indianapolis (Sunday 1pm)
IND
IND (-6.5)
IND
Kansas City at Jacksonville (Sunday 1pm)
KCY
KCY (-2.5)
KCY
Seattle at Carolina (Sunday 1pm)
SEA
SEA (-2.5)
SEA
Arizona at St. Louis (Sunday 4pm)
STL
ARZ (+5.5)
ARZ
Houston at San Diego (Monday 10pm)
HOU
HOU (-2.5)
HOU

START ‘EM/ANTI-START ‘EM/ESPN.com GRIDIRON CHALLENGE

We are participating in the ESPN Gridiron Challenge on ESPN.com.  The object is to pick the best team possible with a $50 million salary cap.  However, we have added another wrinkle.  The object of the ESPN.com is to buy low and sell high and the more you accomplish that, the more money you get in your salary cap.  My goal is to put together a nine-man unit (2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) that is better than another nine-man unit at a similar price.

Here is the Week 1 entry in the Gridrion Challenge, our “Start ‘Em” team, along with our comparable “Anti-Start ‘Em” team, which is our opponent for the week:

TOTALS: W-L: 9-7-1, PF: 1677, PA: 1511, By Position: 73-72-8 (.503)

(all dollar figures in millions)

Start ‘Em Team

POS

Anti-Start ‘Em Team

Matt Ryan ATL at NO ($6.2)
QB
Michael Vick PHL at WSH ($5.8)
Carson Palmer at STL ARZ ($5.6)
QB
Philip Rivers SDG vs HOU ($5.5)
C.J. Spiller BUF vs NE ($5.8)
RB
Arian Foster HOU at SDG ($6.9)
David Wilson NYG at DAL ($5.5)
RB
Matt Forte CHI vs CIN ($5.6)
Julio Jones ATL at NO ($5.7)
WR
Randall Cobb GBY at SFO ($5.4)
Miles Austin DAL vs NYG ($5.0)
WR
Steve Smith CAR vs SEA ($5.2)
Jared Cook STL vs ARZ ($4.9)
TE
Jermichael Finley GBY at SFO ($4.9)
Randy Bullock HOU at SDG ($4.2)
K
Matt Bryant ATL at NO ($4.5)
Cincinnati Bengals CIN at CHI ($4.9)
DEF
New York Giants NYG at DAL ($4.8)
$47.8 million
TOTAL
$48.6 million


Catch me on "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesdays at 11pm ET and Saturdays at 11am ET. We'll break down these picks and look ahead to next week on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment, Saturday morning at 11am ET.

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