Friday, June 24, 2011

2011 NHL Entry Draft: Predictions

Every year, there are a few top names that normally go according to form. This season will probably not be much different, though the order of those players from 1 through 4 may not be exact. In John Tavares's draft year, it was about the big three of Tavares, Victor Hedman, and Matt Duchene. Last year, the forward tandem of Taylor Hall and (Stanley Cup Champion) Tyler Seguin were all the rage. This year, there are three forwards and a defenseman that are around the top.

This is great news for the New Jersey Devils, who pick fourth, and less so for the New York Islanders, who select fifth, if they elect to make their selections. There is always the possibility of trading the pick to move up, down, or out of the first round. The Islanders could speed up their rebuild by trading down in some sort of package and, for the Devils, salary cap relief is mighty important to them if they want to be able afford to sign Zach Parise before arbitration or afford the award without breaking up the team.

In most publications and prognostications, with available time and money to watch these superteens play, have the top four pegged, in some order, as forwards Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Sean Couturier, Gabriel Landeskog, and defenseman Adam Larsson.

My picks for the first five selections:
1. Edmonton - C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2. Colorado - D Adam Larsson
3. Florida - LW Gabriel Landeskog
4. DEVILS - D Dougie Hamilton
5. ISLANDERS - F Sean Couturier
8. FLYERS - F Ryan Strome
9. BRUINS - D Ryan Murphy
15. RANGERS - RW Tyler Biggs

Sunday, June 5, 2011

Fantasy Weekend - MLB Week 9

Each week on our Fantasy Weekend show (Saturday mornings, 11am ET), we look back on the last seven days and reveal our picks for the best of the past week. Our regular installments of the Weekly Best, the Lines of the Week, our Stock Up/Stock Down segment, as well as Local Leaders for the four local teams we cover (Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, and Mets).

Listen to the podcast (Sports With The StatMan - No. 148) for all of this and more, including a look at injuries around baseball, and a look at the upcoming week with two-start pitchers and a look at next week’s schedule.

This post covers the past seven days leading up to the Saturday morning show from Saturday, May 28th and Friday, June 3rd.

WEEKLY BEST
HITTERS
#1. RF Nelson Cruz TEX – 39 points
#2. RF Justin Upton ARZ – 37 points
#3. 1B Mike Napoli TEX – 36 points

PITCHERS
#1. SP Jered Weaver LAA – 57 points
#2. RP Heath Bell SDG – 56 points
#3. SP Cole Hamels PHL – 50 points

LINES OF THE WEEK
HITTERS
#1. 1B Aubrey Huff SFO - 4-5, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 3 R (22 pts) (6/2 at STL)
#2. C Chris Iannetta COL - 4-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 R (18 pts) (5/28 vs STL)
#3. RF Justin Upton ARZ - 5-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R, 1 2B, 1 SB (17 pts) (5/30 vs FLA)

PITCHERS
#1. SP Clayton Kershaw LAD - 2-hit CG ShO W, 1 BB, 10 K (48 pts) (5/29 vs FLA)
#2. SP Ubaldo Jimenez COL - 4-hit CG ShO W, 0 BB, 7 K (44 pts) (5/30 at LAD)
#3. SP Bartolo Colon NYY - 4-hit CG ShO W, 0 BB, 6 K (43 pts) (5/30 at OAK)

STOCK UP
HITTERS
#1. RF Endy Chavez TEX – O/S: 0%/0%, .435/.469/.696, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 3 SB, 11 R, 46 AB (54 pts); last 11 GP: 20-37, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 4 2B, 1 3B, 11 R, 55 pts (6 5-pt games)
#2. CF Rajai Davis TOR – O/S: 56%/45%, .288/.323/.418, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 16/23 SB/O, 24 R, 153 AB (97 pts); last 22 GP: 32-87, HR, 12 RBI, 14 R, 8 2B, 3 3B, 9/14 SB/O, 71 pts (10 multi-hit games)
#3. OF Juan Pierre CHW – O/S: 68%/48%, .261/.329/.313, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 10/18 SB/O, 28 R, 230 AB (118 pts); last 8 GP: 9-34, HR, 5 RBI, 9 R, 1 3B, 5 BB, 3 K, 3 SB, 36 pts

PITCHERS
#1. SP Josh Collmenter ARZ – O/S: 26%/15%, 4-1, 1.25/0.67, 43.1 IP, 24 H, 5 BB, 26 K (136 pts); as a starter (5 GS): 3-1, 29.1 IP, 16 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 15 K, 94 pts
#2. SP Philip Humber CHW – O/S: 31%/14%, 4-3, 3.06/0.98, 67.2 IP, 52 H, 14 BB, 38 K (132 pts); last 7 GS: 49.1 IP, 33 H, 14 ER, 9 BB, 27 K, 118 pts
#3. SP Kevin Correia PIT – O/S: 51%/23%, 8-4, 3.40/1.20, 76.2 IP, 75 H, 17 BB, 34 K (135 pts); last 3 GS: 3-0, 20 IP, 17 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 10 K, 61 pts

STOCK DOWN
HITTERS
#1. 2B Dan Uggla ATL – O/S: 98%/78%, .172/.242/.312, 7 HR, 16 RBI, 215 AB (74 pts); last 13 GP: 3-43, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R, 2 BB, 8 K, minus-1 pt
#2. 1B Adam Dunn CHW – O/S: 97%/70%, .182/.327/.324, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 72 K, 176 AB (59 pts); last 20 GP: 9-68, HR, 7 RBI, 4 R, 3 2B, 14 BB, 32 K, 7 pts (11 “minus” GP)
#3. RF Nick Markakis BAL – O/S: 96%/82%, .239/.305/.311, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 4 SB, 222 AB (106 pts); last 15 GP: 14-63, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 6 R, 5 BB, 10 K, 1 SB, 19 pts (5 GP of 0 pts or fewer)

PITCHERS
#1. RP Joakim Soria KCY – O/S: 90%/71%, 3-3, 7 SV, 6.00/1.54, 24 IP, 19 K (64 pts); since 5/22 (6 APP): 0-3, 0/3 SV/O, 6.1 IP, 12 H, 7 K, minus-24 pts
#2. RP Carlos Marmol CHC – O/S: 95%/87%, 1-2, 10 SV, 3.33/1.32, 24.1 IP, 32 K (121 pts); since 5/19 (6 APP): 0-1, 1/2 SV/O, 5.1 IP, 9 H, 4 BB, 7 K, minus-4 pts
#3. SP Justin Masterson CLE – O/S: 94%/66%, 5-4, 3.28/1.31, 79.2 IP, 58 K (138 pts); since 5/12 (5 GS): 0-4, 32.2 IP, 35 H, 14 BB, 24 K, 9 pts

HOT PICK-UPS
HITTERS
#1. OF Corey Patterson TOR – O/S: 24%/20%, .285/.314/.446, 4 HR, 27 RBI, 7 SB, 193 AB (113 pts); last 6 GP: 11-29, 17 TB, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 28 pts
#2. OF Josh Willingham OAK – O/S: 33%/24%, .250/.327/.467, 10 HR, 37 RBI, 184 AB (110 pts); last 7 GP: 10-27, 23 TB, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 31 pts
#3. 1B Ty Wigginton COL – O/S: 22%/11%, .254/.308/.459, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 122 AB, 1B/3B/OF elig. (71 pts); last 5 GP: 6-17, 15 TB, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 17 pts

PITCHERS
#1. RP Aaron Crow KCY – New CL (Soria); O/S: 11%/6%; 2-0, 1.33/1.04, 27 IP, 26 K (93 pts); last 8 APP: 2 HD, 10.2 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 10 K, 32 pts
#2. SP Dillon Gee NYM – O/S: 20%/15%; 5-0, 3.83/1.15, 47 IP, 37 K (95 pts); last 3 GS: 3-0, 20.2 IP, 11 H, 7 ER, 5 BB, 15 K, 62 pts
#3. SP Jordan Lyles HOU – 1st ML start: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K (17 pts)

LOCAL LEADERS
HITTERS
#1. DH David Ortiz BOS – .474/.524/1.053, 9-19, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 2 2B (32 pts)
#2. SS Derek Jeter NYY – .318/.467/.409, 7-22, RBI, 2 2B, 6 BB, 0 K, 2 SB (27 pts)
#3. SS Jose Reyes NYM – .529/.556/.941, 9-17, RBI, 2B, 3 3B, 2 SB (25 pts) (Cano 25 pts, 8-25, 2 HR)

PITCHERS
#1. SP Cole Hamels PHL – 1-0, 2 QS, 1.80/0.73, 15 IP, 8 H, 3 BB, 14 K (50 pts)
#2. SP Bartolo Colon NYY – 4-hit CG ShO W, 0 BB, 6 K (43 pts)
#3. SP Jonathon Niese BOS – 1-0, 2 QS, 1.29/1.29, 14 IP, 13 H, 5 BB, 13 K (42 pts)

Key – O/S: Owned/Starting in CBS Sports fantasy leagues; “minus” GP: a game in which a player scored negative fantasy points; statistics are season totals unless otherwise noted

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Check Out The Mets Banter

As we turn our attention from football to the upcoming baseball season, I wanted to give all of the Mets fans out there a website to add to their blogroll.

The Mets Banter is a blog that takes an irreverent look at the Mets.  Now entering its second season, it is a great place to read about what it is like to bleed blue and orange 162 games a year.  You will not find game previews or reviews on a regular basis.  What you will find is passionate editorials from real fans.  If the names Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, or Aaron Heilman get your blood boiling, you should definitely look in on these guys.

Wills Gillan, a contributor on Sports With The StatMan, heads up the writing staff.  Wills and his writers offer straight talk, positive or negative, about the Mets. Warning: the language can be R-rated at times, but you have to let them vent…it is tough to be a Met fan.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

Sports With The StatMan - Show Notes: January 31-February 5

This was a big week in the nearly two-year history of Sports With The StatMan, as we transitioned from a weekly 60-to-90 minute show into three 30-minute shows per week.  To start this off, we will have baseball talk on Mondays, hockey talk on Wednesdays, and football chatter for the next couple of Saturdays with the division-by-division outlook to follow on Saturdays starting on February 19th.  It is a new format and I hope you enjoy it, whether you join me live or on the podcast.

The episodes from this week are below.  I will try to add a blog post each week to give you a little more detail about each episode.  There is a link to the podcast of each show under the title of each show, followed by information on how to find the show, how to interact with the show, and a look at next week’s shows.

This Week:
SWTS #97: Baseball - 2011 StatMan Fantasy Preview: Catchers
(Monday, January 31st, 11:00-11:30pm ET) (Show Audio)
  • 00:00: Open/Introduction
  • 03:00: Catchers - Importance of position
  • 06:30: Hot Stove - Signings and Rumors
  • 11:00: Top 20: #1-#5
  • 21:30: Top 20: #6-#10
  • 25:15: Top 20: #11-#20
  • 28:00: Sleeper and Supersleeper
  • 28:45: Pairings
  • 29:30: Close
SWTS #98: Hockey - NHL Week 17
(Wednesday, February 2nd, 11:00-11:30pm ET) (Show Audio)
  • 00:00: Open/Introduction
  • 01:45: Islanders - DiPietro tomfoolery against Penguins
  • 09:30: Devils and Rangers - Leading up to their clash at the Garden
  • 11:30: Devils - Confusion about rumor about Devils sale
  • 13:30: Islanders - Poor attendance leads to great ticket offers
  • 20:30: More Devils-Rangers preview
  • 26:00: All-Star Weekend Recap - Tim Thomas, Michael Grabner, Zdeno Chara
  • 29:00: Close
SWTS #99: Football - Super Bowl XLV Preview
(Saturday, 2/5, 11:00-11:30am ET) (Show Audio)
  • 00:00: Open/Introduction
  • 00:30: Super Bowl XLV Scene Setter
  • 03:15: This Week on Sports With The StatMan
  • 03:45: Baseball – Andy Pettitte officially retires, Clemens, Hall of Fame chances
  • 10:30: Hockey – DiPietro out 4-6 weeks after fight
  • 12:30: Super Bowl Preview – Big Ben vs. Rodgers, Position-by-position breakdown
  • 23:00: Super Bowl Pick and Prediction
  • 23:45: NFL Fantasy Update – Conference Championship
  • 26:45: Next Week – Sports With The StatMan
  • 27:30: Super Bowl Preview – Common Opponents
  • 29:30: Close

How to Find the Show:
How to Interact with the Show:
Next Week:
  • #100: Baseball – 2011 StatMan Fantasy Baseball Preview: First Basemen (Episode Page)
  • #101: Hockey – NHL Week 18 (Episode Page)
  • #102: Football – 2010 NFL Season In Review (Episode Page)

Saturday, January 8, 2011

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks and Predictions

The second season has begun in the NFL. Let's look back on how we did during the regular season.

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 17 results in parentheses)
  • Picks - Straight Up: 164-92 (.641) (13-3 in Week 17)
  • Picks - Against The Spread: 130-118-8 (.523) (10-6 in Week 17)
  • Knockout Pool - Alive in Round 7 after Week 17 (11-6, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND, NO, PIT, ATL, JAX, GBY; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE, TBY, DAL)
  • Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 30-18-3 (.618) (2-1 in Week 16: QB (W, 12-5): K. Kolb PHL 4, T. Tebow DEN 29; RB (W, 9-6-2): R. Mathews SDG 35, K. Moreno DEN 4; WR (W, 9-7-1): J. Avant PHL 2, J. Knox CHI 0)
EXTRA AUDIO
Sports With The StatMan: Football Edition - Week 17 Fantasy Update
Sports With The StatMan: Football Edition - Wild Card Weekend Picks and Predictions

WILD CARD GAME PICKS
New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Seattle Seahawks (7-9)
Saturday, 4:30pm ET - NBC
Sheridan's Line: Saints by 10

Breakdown: The Saints RB tandem of Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory are both on IR, leaving the Saints without a RB who has scored a rushing touchdown in Reggie Bush and Julius Jones. That and the Seattle home-field advantage should be enough to cover the spread, but the Saints will find a way to win with Drew Brees and that dynamite passing attack.

X-Factor: Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck
Picks: Straight Up - Saints; Against the Spread - Seahawks
Predicted Score: NO 24, SEA 17

New York Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
Saturday, 8:00pm ET - NBC
Sheridan's Line: Colts by 3

Breakdown: The Jets have a chance for revenge after losing last year's AFC Championship Game in Indianapolis. The Colts are missing some major pieces like TE Dallas Clark, WR Austin Collie, and S Bob Sanders. TE Jacob Tamme picked up where Clark left off, but he is no Clark. The other replacements are not as good, either. The Jets have to run the ball right at the Colts on offense and try to make QB Peyton Manning think quickly while the defense is on the field. I think the Jets will pull even with the Colts offense and make the defensive plays when they have to in order to win.

X-Factor: Indianapolis TE Jacob Tamme
Picks: Straight up - Jets; Against the Spread - Jets
Predicted Score: NYJ 30, IND 27

Baltimore Ravens (12-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
Sunday, 1:00pm ET - CBS
Sheridan's Line: Ravens by 3

Breakdown: The Chiefs lost their first game at home all season last week against the Raiders. The Chiefs are also New England West with a few players and coaches having Patriots ties, which would serve them well in the playoffs. But, the Ravens have won in the Wild Card round each of the last two years with an average of 30 points scored.

X-Factor: Kansas City WR Dwayne Bowe
Picks: Straight up - Ravens; Against the Spread - Ravens
Predicted Score: BAL 19, KCY 14

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
Sunday, 4:30pm - FOX
Sheridan's Line: Eagles by 2.5

Breakdown: This game is a rematch of the Week 1 game when the Packers opened the season with a victory at Philadelphia. Kevin Kolb won the quarterback job in camp and left with an injury before halftime. Michael Vick almost led a comeback, but the Eagles fell short. This time around, the Eagles have a lot more confidence, not only because of Vick, but because of the rest of the team. It will be a different game with a different outcome.


X-Factor: Philadelphia WR DeSean Jackson's ankle
Picks: Straight up - Eagles; Against the Spread - Eagles
Predicted Score: PHL 30, GBY 24

***

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#94) on Wednesday night, January 12th, at 9pm ET. We recap the Jets-Colts and Eagles-Packers games and get ready for the Divisional Championship round. We will also have our NHL Midseason Report.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"
Extra audio available at: http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Who Will Play in the 2012 Winter Classic?

Who will play in the 2012 Winter Classic? All signs are pointing to the New York Rangers having one of the slots and it is about time the Classic comes to New York. Let’s look at the prerequisites to host a Winter Classic.

First, it should be an American city. Canada now has their Heritage Classic, which is played on the Sunday before Family Day in Canada, which is also the day before President’s Day in the United States. With a major television network carrying the event in the U.S., the game has to have a decidedly American flavor. New York, last time I checked, was in the lower 48.

Second, the city should be a cold-weather city. The NHL’s refrigeration truck is a marvel, but I do not think the technology is there to withstand 70 degree temperatures. If you looked at the ice in Pittsburgh last Sunday night, the rain and the above freezing temperatures made for a watery mess for some of the third period. The backdrop of palm trees would be nice, but it would not be practical.

Next, the game should involve a big market team to maximize viewership. There is no bigger market than New York. Three of the four American teams that comprise the Original Six have already been represented in the game: Chicago, Detroit, and Boston. Two of those three – Chicago and Boston – have hosted the game.

Who would the Rangers play? Regional rivalries may not play as well to a national audience. For all of the talk about ratings and big markets, the NHL has done very well with Washington-Pittsburgh, Philadelphia-Boston, Detroit-Chicago, and Pittsburgh-Buffalo, which can all be termed regional rivalries in the Northeast or the Great Lakes areas. So, maybe we shouldn’t discount a Rangers-Devils or Rangers-Islanders game on the grand stage. If not, the Rangers could go up against just about any other team. How about an Original Six-Next Six East-West matchup with the Rangers and Kings? The idea of the two biggest media markets coming together to help a sports league that could use all of the press it can get could push this matchup over the top.

Since the Canadiens are in this year’s Heritage Classic, the only Original Six team that has not played outside or booked to play outside would be the Toronto Maple Leafs. So, would a Leafs-Rangers game be that far-fetched? The Leafs were so hard up for the outdoor experience, the Leafs held a practice outside in a city park. The Bruins played in last year’s Winter Classic, but that has not stopped the NHL from tapping the Penguins twice. Then again, Zdeno Chara and Tyler Seguin do not quite have the same cachet as Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. But, the Bruins and Rangers are rivals for the better part of a century.

Whether the game would be in the friendly confines of Citi Field or, more likely, the vast expanse of the New Meadowlands Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, the New York area would be a perfect host for next year’s Winter Classic.

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Week 17 NFL Picks and Predictions

Happy New Year everyone! Week 17 normally has a preseason feel to some of the games before the most important ones of the NFL season start up next weekend.

SEASON RESULTS
(Week 16 results in parentheses)
  • Picks - Straight Up: 151-89 (.629) (10-6 in Week 16)
  • Picks - Against The Spread: 120-112-8 (.517) (11-5 in Week 16)
  • Knockout Pool - Out in Round 6 after Week 16 (10-6, Teams Used: Wins - NYG, PHL, SDG, BAL, KCY, IND, NO, PIT, ATL, JAX; Losses - WSH, CHI, NO, NE, TBY, DAL)
  • Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play (Start listed first) - 28-17-3 (.615) (2-1 in Week 16: QB (W, 12-4): T. Tebow DEN 24, E. Manning NYG 23; RB (L, 8-6-2): B. Green-Ellis NE 10, M. Forte CHI 22; WR (W, 8-7-1): M. Williams TBY 14, C. Ochocinco CIN 0)

WEEK 17 PICKS
Straight up (win/loss)
  • Locals: NYG (W at WSH), NYJ (W vs. BUF), PHL (W vs. DAL), NE (W vs. MIA)
  • Big Game Winners: STL (at SEA), IND (vs. TEN), GBY (vs. CHI)
  • Other Winners: PIT (at CLE), BAL (vs. CIN), NO (vs. TBY), ATL (vs. CAR), DET (vs. MIN), OAK (at KCY), HOU (vs. JAX), SFO (vs. ARZ), SDG (at DEN)

Against the Spread (spreads in parentheses)
  • Locals: NYG (-3.5 at WSH), NYJ (-1 vs. BUF), DAL (+10 at PHL), NE (-4 vs. MIA)
  • Big Game Covers: STL (-2.5 at SEA), TEN (+9.5 at IND), GBY (-10 vs. CHI)
  • Other Covers: CLE (+6 vs. PIT), CIN (+9.5 at BAL), TBY (+8 at NO), CAR (+14.5 at ATL), DET (-3 vs. MIN), OAK (+3.5 at KCY), HOU (-3 vs. JAX), ARZ (+6 at SFO), SDG (-3.5 at DEN)

Knockout Pool
  • Round 7: Green Bay (vs. Chicago)

PREDICTIONS
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Three-Play
  • QB: Start Kevin Kolb PHL (vs. DAL), Sit Tim Tebow DEN (vs. SDG)
  • RB: Start Ryan Mathews SDG (at DEN), Sit Knowshon Moreno DEN (vs. SDG)
  • WR: Start Jason Avant PHL (vs. DAL), Sit Johnny Knox CHI (at GBY)

***

Join us for our next Sports With The StatMan (#93) for our first show of 2011 on Wednesday night, January 5th, at 9pm ET. We gear up for the NFL Playoffs with a recap of Week 17 and a preview of Wild Card Weekend. We know the Eagles and Jets will be in action and the Patriots will get a week off to rest up, but will the Giants be in action or watch the playoffs from their couches? We also chat about hockey and baseball.

Show page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
Random Musings blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
iTunes: Search "Sports With The StatMan"
Extra audio available at: http://www.cinchcast.com/gstatman

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