Opinion: Ortiz should start planning exit strategy

There are a lot of players in every sport that hang on too long.  Some guys try to squeeze every at bat, inning, goal, touchdown, and -- most of all -- dollar -- out of their big-league career.  I could not say I would not do the same if I could.  But, if David Ortiz wants to keep his legend intact with the Boston Red Sox, this should be his last year in a Red Sox uniform.

Recent failures may never tarnish his golden moments, the ones that will live and thrive in the hearts of Red Sox Nation forever.  But, his early-season struggles of the past two years have taken some of the starch out of Ortiz and how he has been received by the fans and the media.

He clearly does not want to be benched or substituted for Mike Lowell or anyone else.  He does not appreciate the media writing that he is washed up.  But, the Boston that Ortiz knows is not the Boston of earlier generations.  This media corps has seen a lot of Red Sox success.  It was not too long ago that the Boston writers would not have given this much of a leash to someone like Ortiz.  But, Ortiz is a conquering hero and someone who deserves months or even seasons to get it right.  That was last season.

This year, Ortiz had a similar frigid start to the season, and the writers are at his throat.  The fans have followed a little more cautiously.  How much longer can the Boston media coexist with Ortiz?  For all of his successes, Boston writers will state he has not been the same since Manny Ramirez was traded.  It is hard to argue that point.  Jason Bay and Victor Martinez have not provided the protection that Ramirez once provided Big Papi.

The best should leave on their own terms.  Leaving at the top of one’s game rarely occurs.  For every Barry Sanders leaving the Lions and Michael Jordan leaving the Bulls the first time, there are countless has-beens who should have been enjoying retirement or at least escaped from the city from which they are eternally attached before they had to leave. 

It is already too late for Ortiz to leave with all of his legend intact.  The second one of a dynamite duo rarely does.  Ramirez left first and he basically forced his way out of town, but the fans have to look lovingly at Ramirez from afar, wishing he was still hitting in the middle of the Red Sox lineup.  Ortiz gets what is left behind and has not been able to recapture the same magic, personally or as a team, since Ramirez left.

Before it gets too much worse, Ortiz should start planning his exit strategy.  Maybe Ortiz can have a solid three-quarters of the season and leave on a high note.  If he muddles around .200 for the rest of the year, the decision will be made for him.

Sports With The StatMan #59: Show Notes

Timeline
00:00-25:00 – Flyers come back from 3-0 in series and in Game 7 to stun Bruins
25:00-33:00 - Montreal slays another giant in the playoffs, Flyers-Montreal preview
33:00-38:00 - Chicago owns Canucks in Vancouver
38:00-46:30 - San Jose getting tougher, San Jose-Chicago preview, Predictions
46:30-55:00 - Yankees facing the best of the AL Central
55:00-58:30 - My trip to Target Field
58:30-64:00 - Mets facing divisional foes
64:00-70:45 - Red Sox: Beckett issues, Ortiz heating up
70:45-75:00 - Phillies: Injury news, Manuel talks about sign-stealing
75:00-81:00 - Fantasy Minute
81:00-82:30 - Final Note

Main Points
00:00-25:00 – Flyers come back from 3-0 in series and in Game 7 to stun Bruins

• How big of a loss was this in Boston sports history?
• Players returning from injury in Simon Gagne and Michael Leighton made the difference in the series
• Gagne gave the Flyers the fuel to push them over the top
• Flyers coach Peter Laviolette is playing everything just right, evidenced by the timeout called down 3-0 in Game 7, maneuvering around goaltending injuries
• The only way the Flyers could get home ice is this very matchup (#7 Flyers vs. #8 Montreal)
• What will change for the Bruins before next season?
• What happens now to the psyche of the team, especially young goaltender Tuukka Rask? If you remember, Brian Boucher was an up-and-coming goaltender for the Flyers with some playoff success before blowing a 3-1 series lead against the Devils in 2000 stunted his growth.

25:00-33:00 - Montreal slays another giant in the playoffs, Flyers-Montreal preview

• Jaroslav Halak carried the Habs against Washington in the first round, but it was a team effort in Game 7 at Pittsburgh (W, 5-2)
• Hal Gill and Josh Gorges are the defensive tandem getting the attention for Montreal in the playoffs. Gill was with Pittsburgh last year and has been called on to shut down the likes of Ovechkin and the big guns on Pittsburgh.
• Philadelphia loves to score goals on chaotic goal-mouth scrambles. It will be up to Gill and Gorges, along with the rest of the Montreal defense, to clear the crease and make sure Halak can see Flyer shots.
• Cinderella teams that ride a hot goaltender have the tendency to turn into a pumpkin in the Conference Final
• PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA in 7

33:00-38:00 - Chicago owns Canucks in Vancouver

• Chicago was the only home team to win in this series as they won Game 2
• Chicago scored 12 goals in Games 3 and 4 and won both games in Vancouver
• Roberto Luongo has failed against Chicago as he has tried to build a reputation of a good playoff goaltender
• Chicago is in the Western/Campbell Conference Final in consecutive years for the first time since 1989-90

38:00-46:30 - San Jose getting tougher, San Jose-Chicago preview, Predictions

• Marleau and Thornton have played well in these playoffs
• San Jose shed their playoff failure label after handling defending Western Conference champs (Detroit) in five games
• The kids are still alright in Chicago
• PREDICTION: CHICAGO in 7
• Through the Second Round: 7-5 in Playoffs, 2 exact hits (winner and games)

46:30-55:00 - Yankees facing the best of the AL Central

• Phil Hughes is pitching like he belongs in the Big Three of the Yankee starting rotation
• Hughes’ inning count is rising quickly, but he is a lot more economical than Joba Chamberlain was as a starter
• Alex Rodriguez hit a grand slam to pass Frank Robinson for 7th all-time in HR (587); the grand slam tied him with Eddie Murray for 3rd in GSHR with 19 (Lou Gehrig 23, Manny Ramirez 21)
• Will the next generation of kids remember and be able to recite the home run career leaders? Will kids remember 762 like they remembered 755 and 714? Will it take a chase of Bonds for the top spot to ingrain 762 in our heads or have steroids taken the bloom off the rose forever?

55:00-58:30 - My trip to Target Field

• Early returns on how the ballpark is playing: ball is carrying down the lines, not in the alleys or straight away center
• Champions Club has all of the amenities, but only one bathroom

58:30-64:00 - Mets facing divisional foes

• The great comeback game against Washington, in which the Mets scored 6 runs in the 8th, was the only win of the week for the Mets.
• Ike Davis must have patented his foul pop catch and subsequent dugout flip. He has done this three times now and, New York, those things get candy bars named after you.
• The time has come to take Oliver Perez out of the rotation. In his last two starts, he has allowed 21 baserunners and recorded only 20 outs.

64:00-70:45 - Red Sox: Beckett issues, Ortiz heating up

• Daisuke Matsuzaka looked like the Dice-K of old using his fastball in his last start, striking out 8 of 9 Blue Jays on fastball
• Josh Beckett has a back issue and will skip his turn this week. He is scheduled to go Tuesday against the Yankees. Is his back an issue or did they give him some time off to figure things out?
• Even though the Red Sox have Jon Lester and John Lackey, they need a healthy and effective Beckett to win
• David Ortiz is starting to hit for power, hitting two against Detroit on Friday night. Since hitting .143 in April, he has four multi-hit games since then to raise his average to .213. Ortiz had his 34th multi-HR game on Friday, which is third in Sox history (Ted Williams 37, Jim Rice 35). Ortiz is a Red Sox all-timer because of his playoff performance, but he is starting to get those longevity statistics as well, even though he is hanging on.
• Manager Terry Francona will not commit to returning Ortiz as the everyday DH. Mike Lowell (.269-1-9) has gotten very little playing time. Adrian Beltre is still entrenched at 3B. Beltre is hitting .311, but he is not hitting for power.

70:45-75:00 - Phillies: Injury news, Manuel talks about sign-stealing

• Brad Lidge may have some elbow issues, which could be a big problem because with Ryan Madson on the DL and J.C. Romero best in a setup role, who would close games?
• Jimmy Rollins started his rehab today and could return for next week’s (May 17-23) homestand
• Manager Charlie Manuel responded to the Rockies accusing the Phillies of stealing signs at home. Manuel asked how the Mets play so well at home and said the Mets should be checked for stealing signs. The only thing missing from the Mets-Phillies rivalry is a full-out bench-clearing brawl. Eventually, the off-the-field stuff will probably escalate to on-the-field actions.
• MetsBanter.com tells you what they really think of Charlie Manuel

75:00-81:00 - Fantasy Minute

• Last 7 Days (week ending Friday, May 14th)
• Hitters: 1. Ichiro Suzuki SEA 42 FPTS*, 2. Mark Teixeira NYY 36, 3. Hunter Pence HOU 34, 4. Casey McGehee MIL 33, 5. Alex Rodriguez NYY 32
• Pitchers: 1. Dallas Braden OAK 54 FPTS* (perfect game), T-2. Johnny Cueto CIN 47 (1-hitter), T-2. Joe Saunders LAA 47, T-4. Jeremy Guthrie BAL 46, T-4. Mat Latos SDG 46 (1-hitter)
• Season-To-Date (through Friday, May 14th)
• Hitters: 1. Andre Ethier LAD 154 FPTS* (overtakes Braun for the season lead), 2. Ryan Braun MIL 150, 3. Miguel Cabrera DET 138, 4. Vernon Wells TOR 134, T-5. Evan Longoria TBY 130, T-5. Justin Morneau MIN 130
• Pitchers: 1. Roy Halladay PHL 201 FPTS* (1 more start than rest of starters in Top 5), 2. Ubaldo Jimenez COL 182, 3. Tim Lincecum SFO 176, 4. Adam Wainwright STL 159, 5. Matt Capps WSH 158 (only reliever in Top 5)

81:00-82:30 - Final Note

• Dallas Braden is still talking about Alex Rodriguez. Braden’s 15 minutes of fame just got extended with a perfect game last week.
• Mark your calendars: the Athletics have two more series with the Yankees this season. The next time they meet is a three-game set in Oakland (July 5-7) and they also have a four-game series at Yankee Stadium (August 30-September 2). There may be some fireworks.

Next Week
We will return to our regular spot on Wednesday night at 9pm Eastern time. On the show (#60), the Flyers continue their charge toward the Stanley Cup. We’ll talk Conference Finals in the NHL. We will talk baseball, with the mini two-game series between the Yankees and Red Sox over with and it is Oliver Perez’s night to start, so we will see if Perez is still in the rotation. We will also preview Interleague play 2010 and see if the American League will dominate yet again. All of this and more on Sports With The StatMan.

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:

• Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
• Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
• “Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com
• iTunes: Search “Sports With The StatMan”

Also, check out MetsBanter.com, which features coverage from our resident Mets expert, Wills Gillan, as well as the StatMan.

Send your pro or fantasy questions or comments on the Show Page or the “Random Musings” blog, or you can send me a tweet. I’ll be sure to get back to you. Also, check the show page for times and schedules of our one-hour show and our latest blog entries, such as our Fantasy Hockey Edition and our Random Musings weekly sports column.

Upcoming Schedule
• Wednesday, May 19th, 9pm ET - Sports With The StatMan #60
• Wednesday, May 26th, 9pm ET - Sports With The StatMan #61
• Wednesday, June 2nd, 9pm ET - Sports With The StatMan #62

2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Conference Final Predictions

CONFERENCE SEMIFINAL (2nd Round) RESULTS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#8 Montreal defeats #4 Pittsburgh, 4 games to 3
The defending Stanley Cup Champions did not get out of the second round, as the Penguins dropped Game Seven at home.  Montreal got through Washington on the wings of a 3-1 comeback and the goaltending of Jaroslav Halak.  But, Montreal won a second Game Seven on the road because of more than just goaltending.  A 4-0 lead early in the second period made the final game anti-climactic.

#7 Philadelphia defeats #6 Boston, 4 games to 3
It was a tale of two series.  The Bruins had a 3-0 lead and held all of the cards.  The Flyers' Simon Gagne came back from injury in Game 4 and finished the series with four goals in the last four games of the series, including two game-winners.  Brian Boucher's luck was about to run out, losing the first three games before winning Game Four and was injured in Game Five.  Michael Leighton came off the bench, back from injury, and carried the Flyers in goal the rest of the series, making history along the way.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 San Jose defeats #5 Detroit, 4 games to 1
San Jose has shed their labels of playoff failures after this series, making it to the Conference Finals and they got there with their stars being stars.  Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau had great series and Joe Pavelski continued his big play in the second season.  Detroit was tired after a seven-game series win over Phoenix, but San Jose was rested and ready to go.  The Sharks built a 3-0 lead and won in five.

#2 Chicago defeats #3 Vancouver, 4 games to 2
Chicago owns Roberto Luongo, especially in Vancouver.  In the Conference Semifinals, Chicago has now defeated Vancouver in two straight playoffs, making it to consecutive Conference Finals for the first time since 1989-90.  Chicago is young and Vancouver's defense could not keep up.  The beat goes on in Vancouver with yet another playoff loss, but Chicago's renaissance continues.

CONFERENCE FINAL (3rd Round) PREDICTIONS
EASTERN CONFERENCE: #7 Philadelphia vs. #8 Montreal - PHILADELPHIA in 7 games
Flyer fans were dejected after being down 3-0 to the Bruins.  They were skeptical after wins in Game Four and Game Five.  After a Game Six win at home, the city was captivated.  Now, after doing the very, very improbable, the city is electric.  Welcome to the Conference Finals, which open Sunday in Philadelphia.  Montreal has played the maximum amount of games in both playoff series so far, so I think this will go the distance.  Montreal has won two Game Seven's on the road, but Philadelphia has the electricity of its fans and its city behind them.  Flyers in seven.

WESTERN CONFERENCE: #1 San Jose vs. #2 Chicago - CHICAGO in 7 games
Chicago has the longest drought of any team left in these playoffs.  A loss to San Jose would make it 50 years, but the Blackhawks are on their way back to prominence.  Despite their cap troubles, the time is now for Chicago.  Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, and Brent Seabrook are the stars, but Antti Niemi has played better than expected in the first two rounds.  Both teams are running on all cylinders, but there is magic in Chicago.  I am picking the series to go the full seven games and for Chicago to win the deciding game on the road.  Blackhawks in seven.

Join me on Sports With The StatMan (#60) this Wednesday night at 9pm ET.  For the full wrap on the Conference Semifinal round, listen to last week's show on the show page (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan).

2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Conference Semifinal Predictions

CONFERENCE QUARTERFINAL (1st Round) RESULTS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#8 Montreal defeats #1 Washington, 4 games to 3
The only Game 7 in the Eastern Conference proved to be the biggest upset in these playoffs.  The Canadiens became the first #8 team ever to come back from a 3-1 deficit in Stanley Cup Playoff history, providing a moment worthy of a 100th anniversary in season number 101.

#7 Philadelphia defeats #2 New Jersey, 4 games to 1
The Devils could not break through against Brian Boucher, which frustrated the team and led to a "resignation" by now former coach Jacques Lemaire.  The special teams told the story, as the Devils went 4-for-32 while the Flyers scored four more goals in one less opportunity with the man advantage (8-for-31).

#6 Boston defeats #3 Buffalo, 4 games to 2
In a series that got a little rough-and-tumble, the Bruins survived against the Sabres for the upset.  Tuukka Rask outplayed Ryan Miller when all was said and done in the series for Rask's first four career playoff victories.

#4 Pittsburgh defeats #5 Ottawa, 4 games to 2
Pittsburgh turned the corner against Ottawa, but Ottawa hung tough to force a Game Six.  But, once Pittsburgh netted seven against the Senators, the series definitely turned in the Penguins favor.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 San Jose defeats #8 Colorado, 4 games to 2
Colorado had a 2-1 lead after San Jose defenseman cleared a puck into his own net to give the Avalanche a 1-0 overtime win.  But, that was the last game the Avalanche won in the series and the Sharks outscored Colorado the rest of the way, 12-3.

#2 Chicago defeats #7 Nashville, 4 games to 2
Chicago goaltender Antti Niemi was a strength instead of a liability in the first round, shutting out Nashville twice.  Pekka Rinne also played well for the Predators, but their scorers came up a little short.

#3 Vancouver defeats #6 Los Angeles, 4 games to 2
The Kings had a good thing going, leading the series 2-1 after Game 3.  But, just like the Sharks-Avalanche series, the Canucks kicked it into high gear and won three in a row to send Los Angeles home for the summer.  Vancouver blitzed Los Angeles 17-8 in the final three games of the series.

#5 Detroit defeats #4 Phoenix, 4 games to 3
The only Game 7 in the Western Conference was not much of a matchup in the final game.  But, the series was point and counterpoint in the first six games with the Wings holding a 20-17 overall goal lead.  Detroit pulled away in Game 7, winning 6-1 and pushing the veteran playoff performers to the next round.

CONFERENCE SEMIFINAL (2nd Round) PREDICTIONS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#4 Pittsburgh vs. #8 Montreal - PITTSBURGH in 6 games
Montreal outlasted Washington and that could make them stronger.  But, how can you expect Montreal to beat two top-end world-class teams in a row?  You can't.  Pens in six.

#6 Boston vs. #7 Philadelphia - BOSTON in 6 games
If Boston thought their first round series with Buffalo was tough, this one against Philadelphia will be even tougher.  The Bruins have Marc Savard back on the ice and the team is poised to continue its run.  Boston and Philadelphia both have hot goalies, but I am predicting that Brian Boucher will turn into a pumpkin first.  Bruins in six.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 San Jose vs. #5 Detroit - SAN JOSE in 6 games
The Sharks may have gotten over their playoff struggles, but it will take more than one series to shake that bad reputation.  The Red Wings have the playoff pedigree, but they are tired and their goalie, brilliant as he has been at times this season, is still a rookie.  The Wings still have a lot left in the tank, but the Sharks might be finding their game.  If the first line can click, the Sharks will win.  My pick: Sharks in six.

#2 Chicago vs. #3 Vancouver - CHICAGO in 7 games
This series is a rematch from last season, when Chicago upset Vancouver.  Chicago is the favorite this time around.  Olympic brethren will face off as Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook, and Duncan Keith go up against gold medal teammate in Vancouver's Roberto Luongo.  This year, will it be a repeat or another upset?  I think this series will go the distance and I will go with the repeat.  Blackhawks in seven.

Sports With The StatMan #47: Show Notes

Timeline

00:00-10:30 – Open: Olympic Hockey is ramping up

10:30-29:00 – The three magic words we long to hear: Pitchers and Catchers

29:00-63:30 – 2009 NFL Season In Review

63:30-78:30 – 2010 MLB Preview: American League West

78:30-81:30 – Close: Next Week and Upcoming Schedule

Main Points

00:00-10:30 – Open: Olympic Hockey is ramping up

We got on the air just as Canada was defeating Switzerland in the shootout in their preliminary round game, 3-2.  We talk about the preliminary round thus far, the strength shown by the Canadians and the Americans, and which teams might squeak into the quarterfinals.

10:30-29:00 – The three magic words we long to hear: Pitchers and Catchers

The rite of Spring is here and teams are starting to file down to Florida and Arizona to start Spring Training.  The team that needs the most practice on fundamentals is the Mets and they report to Florida last out of all of the local teams.  A bad decision, to be sure, but you are seeing that several Mets are already down there voluntarily.  David Wright and Johan Santana are starting to talk it up, too.  Is this the start of a new page in Met history or is this more of the same?  You’ll remember Carlos Beltran pegged the Mets as the team to beat in the National League East before the 2008 season and that did not work for the Mets.  This time, jobs are on the line for the GM and the Manager.

The main questions for each local camp.  What will 2010 bring for these teams?

Mets: Question marks about the starting rotation after Johan Santana

Yankees: Moving on without Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui and the battle for the 5th spot in the rotation

Phillies: Doc Halladay replaces Cliff Lee atop the rotation, but Cole Hamels has to be better than he was last year

Red Sox: Mike Lowell is still on the team, but where will he end up?

29:00-63:30 – 2009 NFL Season In Review

Top 10 findings of our pre-season predictions

10. Overall: Pre-season game-by-game picks: 148-108 (.578); Picking every game week-by-week: 177-79 (.691) (+29)

9. Playoffs: picked PHL to lose in WC round

8. Picked ARZ-GBY playoff matchup

7. Biggest misses: CIN (+7), NO (+6, wins SB)

6. NFC: Picked 4 of 6 playoff teams (missed DAL, NO), 3 exact seeds (ARZ 4th, GBY 5th, PHL 6th)

5. AFC: Picked 4 of 6 playoff teams (missed NYJ, CIN), 1 exact seed (BAL 6th)

4. Picked very poorly for NE (-3), NYJ (+3), NYG (-3); close on PHL (+1)

3. Picked within 1 game of exact won-lost record for 13 teams

2. Picked 4 teams correctly on won-lost record (BUF, CLE, DEN, ATL)

1. Right on Colts getting to Super Bowl (wrong in picking them as WC and to win SB)

We also revisited each NFL team’s Big Question we asked in August, what those answers were, and proposed an Offseason Question for each of the 32 teams.  Find your team in the podcast, as I went division-by-division, starting with the AFC East and ending with the NFC West.

63:30-78:30 – 2010 MLB Preview: American League West

The opening installment of our baseball preview started this week with a look at the American League West.  We reviewed the comings and goings for each team, broke down what each team has on the field, and made a prediction for finish in the division and an over/under pick on wins.  Here are the predictions:

(listed in order of last season’s finish)

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2009: 97-65; 2010: O/U 87.5 wins) – Prediction: 1st, Over 87.5 (92-70)

2. Texas Rangers (2009: 87-75, 10 GB; 2010: O/U 77.5 wins) – Prediction: 3rd, Over 77.5 (85-77)

3. Seattle Mariners (2009: 85-77, 12 GB; 2010: O/U 79.5 wins) – Prediction: 2nd, Over 79.5 (90-70)

4. Oakland Athletics (2009: 75-87, 22 GB; 2010: O/U 81.5 wins) – Prediction: 4th, Under 81.5 (72-90)

78:30-81:30 – Close: Next Week’s Show Preview, Upcoming Schedule

Next Week

We will return to our regular spot on Sunday night at 8pm Eastern time.  On the show (#48), we will wrap up our Olympic hockey talk, as the Gold Medal Game will be earlier in the day.  We will also prepare for the return of the NHL on March 1st.  Also, we’ll break down another baseball division.  Next week, we’ll break down the National League West.

Upcoming Schedule

• By Saturday: “Random Musings” Sports Column (blog)

• On Sunday: Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Hockey Edition – Week 20 (blog)

• Sunday, February 28th, 8-9pm ET: Sports With The StatMan: No. 48 (live show)

* All blogs will be available on our “secondary” blog, which is called “Random Musings from the StatMan” (http://gstatman.blogspot.com). You can listen to the show live at our show page (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan) or download the podcast, which is normally available 15 minutes after the show, either from the show page or from iTunes (search: Sports With The StatMan).

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:

• Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan

• Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman

• “Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com

Send your pro or fantasy questions or comments on the Show Page or the “Random Musings” blog, or you can send me a tweet. I’ll be sure to get back to you. Also, check the show page for times and schedules of our one-hour show and our latest blog entries, such as our Fantasy Hockey Edition and our Random Musings weekly sports column.

Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Hockey Edition - Week 19

For the Games of February 7th-14th, 2010

Washington is on one of the best winning streaks of all-time.  As of Saturday night, the Capitals have won 13 in a row.  The all-time record is the 17-game winning streak posted by the Pittsburgh Penguins in 1993.  Washington has four games before the Olympic Break, hosting Pittsburgh and traveling to Montreal, Ottawa, and St. Louis.  The hallmark of the winning streak has been scoring.  Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom earned the first and second star among forwards and Tom Poti was the top-ranked defenseman in the NHL last week.

WEEK 18 REVIEW (Games of 1/31-2/6/2010)

THREE STARS

Forwards

-         1st Star: Alex Ovechkin WSH – 33.5 points (5-3-8 in 4 games, +4, 2 PIM, 2 PPG)

-         2nd Star: Nicklas Backstrom WSH – 33.5 points (3-7-10 in 4 games, +5, 6 PIM, 2 PPG)

-         3rd Star: Marian Gaborik NYR – 30.5 points (5-2-7 in 4 games, +4, 4 PIM, 1 PPG)

Local Forwards

-         1st Star: Marian Gaborik NYR – 30.5 points (#3 Forward overall)

-         2nd Star: Vinny Prospal NYR – 19 points (Tied-#12 F overall, 2-4-6 in 4 games, +2, 2 PIM, 1 PPG)

-         3rd Star: Ryan Callahan NYR – 14 points (Tied-#22 F overall, 2-2-4 in 4 games, -1, 2 PIM, 1 PPG)

Defensemen

-         1st Star: Tom Poti WSH – 27 points (1-3-4 in 4 games, +5, 1 PPG)

-         2nd Star: Jack Johnson LAK – 24.5 points (1-4-5 in 4 games, +2, 2 PIM)

-         3rd Star: Brian Rafalski DET – 20.5 points (0-4-4 in 4 games, +2)

Local Defensemen

-         1st Star: Marc Staal NYR – 14 points (Tied-#15 Defenseman overall, 0-3-3 in 4 games, +1)

-         2nd Star: Michael Del Zotto NYR – 9 points (Tied-#28 D overall, 0-2-2 in 4 games, +1, 4 PIM)

-         3rd Star: Matt Gilroy NYR – 8.5 points (Tied-#31 D overall, 0-2-2 in 4 games)

Goaltenders

-         1st Star: Jean-Sebastien Giguere TOR – 30 points (2-0-0 in 2 games, 2 SO, 0.00 GAA, 60 SV, 1.000 SvPct)

-         2nd Star: Jeff Deslauriers EDM – 27.4 points (2-2-0 in 4 games, 1 SO, 2.02 GAA, 137 SV, .945 SvPct)

-         3rd Star: Marty Turco DAL – 26.6 points (2-1-0 in 3 games, 1 SO, 1.01 GAA, 98 SV, .970 SvPct)

Local Goaltenders

-         1st Star: Ray Emery PHL – 12.6 points (#17 Goalie overall, 1-0-0 in 1 game, 1 SO, 0.00 GAA, 18 SV, 1.000 SvPct)

-         2nd Star: Henrik Lundqvist NYR – 10.7 points (#21 G overall, 1-2-0 in 3 games, 3.03 GAA, 86 SV, .905 SvPct)

-         3rd Star: Chad Johnson NYR – 8.8 points (Tied-#24 G overall, 1-0-0 in 1 game, 1.00 GAA, 34 SV, .971 SvPct)

Special Teams

-         Best in League: Atlanta Thrashers/Calgary/Los Angeles/Pittsburgh +9 points each

-         Best among locals: New York Rangers +5 (#7 ST overall, 5-18 PP, 20-23 PK, 0 SHG, 1 SHGA)

WEEK 19 PREVIEW (Games of 2/7-2/14/2010)

SCHEDULE

4-Game Weeks:

- Sunday-to-Saturday scoring period (17): Anaheim, Boston, Colorado, Edmonton, Montreal, New Jersey, Nashville, N.Y. Islanders, Ottawa, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, San Jose, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Vancouver, Washington

- Monday-to-Sunday scoring period (13): Anaheim, Colorado, Edmonton, New Jersey, Nashville, N.Y. Islanders, Ottawa, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Jose, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Vancouver

2-Game Weeks:

- Sunday-to-Saturday scoring period (1): Toronto

- Monday-to-Sunday scoring period (1): Toronto

Local Matchups:

- Devils at Flyers (Monday), Flyers at Devils (Wednesday)

START ‘EM and SIT ‘EM

Last Week (Start vs. Sit)

- Forwards: Mike Knuble WSH (2-2-4 in 4 games, +6, 2 PIM) vs. Ryan Kesler VAN (1-1-2 in 3 games, -2, 2 PIM, 1 PPG) (W, Knuble 17.5, Kesler 4.0)

- Defensemen: Ian White CGY (0-1-1 in 4 games, +1, 2 PIM) vs. Zdeno Chara BOS (1-0-1 in 3 games, -2, 2 PIM, 1 PPG) (W, White 5.5, Chara 0.0)

- Goaltending: Jonathan Quick LAK (4-0-0 in 4 games, 2.50 GAA, 84 SV, .894 SvPct) vs. Brian Elliott OTT (2-1-0 in 3 games, 2.62 GAA, 89 SV, .927 SvPct) (W, Quick 18.8, Elliott 14.8)

Season: 11-4 (3-0 last week)

Forwards

- Start: James Neal DAL – In the first few weeks of the season, Neal was a solid performer with three double-digit weeks in his first four.  In the next 11 weeks, Neal had one double-digit week, went through a slump, a suspension, and a groin injury.  Since, he has put up two double-digit weeks in the last three and looks like his early-season self.

- Sit: Ryan Malone TBY – Malone has been in a bad way lately.  I mean, really bad.  Since a 23-point week in Week 12, Malone has scored -3 fantasy points.  How he is starting in any fantasy league is beyond me.  Why is he still on my fantasy roster?  Since December 21st, where he had two goals and two assists against the Islanders, Malone is 3-3-6 in 21 games and is playing at a minus-12.

Defensemen

- Start: Mark Giordano CGY – Giordano may be the NHL’s best-kept secret.  Don’t look now, but two goals in his last two games give him 10 markers on the season.  Only five defensemen have more.

- Sit: Christian Ehrhoff VAN – Ehrhoff has not put points up lately and even though he has a plus-22 rating this season, he is a minus-3 in his last 3 games and the Canucks are going to be on the road for a while.  Ehrhoff is a +21 in 31 home games and +3 in 27 road contests this year.

Goaltending

- Start: Michael Leighton PHL – Ray Emery is hurt again and may be out for a while.  Leighton was good when the Flyers really needed him and there is no reason to think he will let them down this time.

- Sit: Jose Theodore WSH – Theodore and the Caps goaltending is the only facet of their game that is not firing on all cylinders right now.  Also, Semyon Varlamov is getting healthy, so Theodore’s days of being the starter may be numbered.

Upcoming Schedule

• Show Notes blog (#45)

• “Random Musings” sports column

• Sunday 10-11pm ET: Sports With The StatMan (#46)

• Fantasy Hockey Edition – Week 20

* All blogs will be available on our “secondary” blog, which is called “Random Musings from the StatMan” (http://gstatman.blogspot.com). You can listen to the show live at our show page (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan) or download the podcast, which is normally available 15 minutes after the show, either from the show page or from iTunes (search: Sports With The StatMan).

Here are the ways to follow along with the blogs and also find the show:

• Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan

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• iTunes: search for “Sports With The StatMan”

Send your pro or fantasy questions or comments on the Show Page or the “Random Musings” blog, or you can send me a tweet. I’ll be sure to get back to you. Also, check the show page for times and schedules of our one-hour show and our last blog entries, such as our Fantasy Hockey Edition and our Random Musings weekly sports column.

Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition - Super Bowl XLIV

The Super Bowl has already happened, but I did write down my Super Bowl pick before the game, as well as predictions on which quarterback, running back, and wide receiver would have the bigger game.  The Colts and Saints were the two best teams in the league.  They had the longest undefeated strings to start the season.  They had the best quarterbacks in football this year.  Their defenses were underrated.  But, there were some differences.  New Orleans had the better running game.  Saint coach Sean Payton is a disciple of hard-nosed Bill Parcells while Colt neophyte Jim Caldwell took over this year for the gentle Tony Dungy.

Before we talk about the Super Bowl, let’s back up one week.  The AFC and NFC title games were played and the only team without a bye week who was still in the tournament was the New York Jets.  But, the Jets run was over in a rematch with the Colts.  The Saints reached their first Super Bowl in their 43-year history with an overtime victory over Brett Favre and the Vikings.  Here are the top fantasy performances from the Conference Championship games:

Conference Championship Round Top Fantasy Performers

Quarterback

 1. Peyton Manning IND – 31 points (26-for-39, 377 yards, 3 TD (16,4,15), 0 INT, 1 rush for 0 yards)

 2. Drew Brees NO – 23 points (17-for-31, 197 yards, 3 TD (38,9,5), 0 INT, 1 rush for 0 yards)

 3. Mark Sanchez NYJ – 22 points (17-for-30, 257 yards, 2 TD (80,9), 1 INT, 2 rushes for 1 yard)

Running Back

 1. Adrian Peterson MIN – 27 points (25 rushes for 122 yards, 3 TD (19,1,2), 2 catches for 14 yards)

 2. Pierre Thomas NO – 23 points (14 rushes for 61 yards, 1 TD (9), 2 catches for 38 yards, 1 rec TD (38))

T3. Joseph Addai IND – 8 points (16 rushes for 80 yards, 1 catch for 13 yards, 1 fumble lost)

T3. Reggie Bush NO – 8 points (7 rushes for 8 yards, 2 catches for 33 yards, 1 rec TD (5), 1 fumble lost)

Wide Receiver

 1. Braylon Edwards NYJ – 20 points (2 catches for 100 yards, 1 TD (80))

 2. Pierre Garcon IND – 19 points (11 catches for 151 yards, 1 TD (4))

 3. Austin Collie IND – 18 points (7 catches for 123 yards, 1 TD (16))

Tight End

 1. Dustin Keller NYJ – 16 points (6 catches for 63 yards, 1 TD (9))

 2. Dallas Clark IND – 13 points (4 catches for 35 yards, 1 TD (15))

 3. Visanthe Shiancoe MIN – 12 points (4 catches for 83 yards)

Kicker

 1. Matt Stover IND – 12 points (3-for-3 in field goals (25,19,21), 3-for-3 in extra points)

 2. Garrett Hartley NO – 9 points (1-for-1 in field goals (40), 4-for-4 in extra points)

 3. Jay Feely NYJ – 7 points (1-for-3 in field goals (48), 2-for-2 in extra points)

Defense/Special Team

 1. Saints NO – 5 points (2 INT, 3 fumble recoveries, 28 points allowed)

T2. Colts IND – 3 points (1 INT, 17 points allowed)

T2. Jets NYJ – 3 points (2 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 30 points allowed)

Conference Championship Round Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em Results (1-2)

QB: Drew Brees NO (start) vs. Peyton Manning IND (sit) – (L, Manning 31, Brees 23)

RB: Shonn Greene NYJ (start) vs. Reggie Bush NO (sit) – (L, Bush 8, Greene 4)

WR: Devery Henderson NO (start) vs. Reggie Wayne IND (sit) – (W, Henderson 7, Wayne 5)

SUPER BOWL XLIV

Sunday 6:30pm – New Orleans vs. Indianapolis (-5)

Super Bowl pick

NO-IND: Colts 40, Saints 30 (Colts win and cover)

The Colts managed to put up 30 points against the Jets while using two rookies as their main receivers.  Pierre Garcon set an AFC Championship Game record with 11 catches and Garcon and Austin Collie both caught touchdowns from Peyton Manning.  The Saints do not have the shutdown corner the Jets have in Darrelle Revis so Reggie Wayne will be in play more in the Super Bowl than last game.  The Colts defense has been much better than advertised against the run and the Saints have a deceptively good running game with Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush.  The Saints defense will try to blitz, but RB Joseph Addai is good at picking it up.  This should give Peyton Manning more time to make plays downfield.

For the Saints to win, Reggie Bush has to get involved, injured Colts DE Dwight Freeney has to be kept at bay, and they have to fool the Colts defense with different looks.  The Saints are great on screen passes and this could help keep the Colts defense on their heels.  The Colts defense is quick, but the Saints offensive players are quick, too, including their wide receivers, who can run as well as receive.

Game Result: Saints 31, Colts 17 (Saints won and covered)

The Saints won the game with the unbelievably efficient play of Drew Brees.  Brees tied Tom Brady for the Super Bowl record in completions in a game with 32.  Though Brees only averaged 9 yards per completion for 288 yards, Brees dinked and dunked his way to an 82% completion percentage.  Brees outplayed Peyton Manning and won MVP honors.  The play calling was solid, culminating in a screen pass to Pierre Thomas, who scored from 16 yards out.  Former Giant TE Jeremy Shockey caught the go-ahead touchdown with under 6 minutes left in the fourth quarter.  

But, almost as impressive as Brees was the Saints defense.  Gregg Williams had his defense give Manning fits, changing looks and even alignments, switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3.  The only turnover in the game sealed the victory for the Saints.  Manning tried to reach Reggie Wayne, who had a disappointing game.  Malcolm Jenkins jumped the route and intercepted Manning's pass 74 yards for a touchdown for the icing on the cake.

Super Bowl Start 'Em/Sit 'Em

QB: Drew Brees NO (start) vs. Peyton Manning IND (sit)

I am a glutton for punishment.  I gave you the same Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em last week at quarterback and Manning had the better day, 31-23.  But, I think Brees will be passing from behind and will get more yards.  Otherwise, the statistics may be pretty even for these two stars.

RB: Pierre Thomas NO (start) vs. Joseph Addai IND (sit)

Thomas is a double threat in that he can run and receive.  Thomas caught a pivotal screen pass against the Vikings for a touchdown and found the end zone with some great individual moves when it would have been easier to go out of bounds.  Addai plays in an offense that does not feature the run and he is more of a runner than a receiver.  Thomas wins this one on versatility.

WR: Reggie Wayne IND (start) vs. Marques Colston NO (sit)

Wayne will be liberated by not having to go up against Darrelle Revis.  Wayne only had three catches for 55 yards against Revis and the Jets.  This week, he has a better opportunity to go for big yards and a score.  Colston is the most dependable receiver for the Saints and he gets there on volume.  I am looking for the Colts to keep his catches to manageable gains without allowing him to break one.

Super Bowl Top Fantasy Performers

Quarterback

 1. Drew Brees NO – 23 points (32-for-39, 288 yards, 2 TD (16,2), 0 INT, 1 rush for -1 yard)

 2. Peyton Manning IND – 17 points (31-for-45, 333 yards, 1 TD (19), 1 INT)

Running Back

T1. Joseph Addai IND – 16 points (13 rushes for 77 yards, 1 TD (4), 7 catches for 58 yards)

T1. Pierre Thomas NO – 16 points (9 rushes for 30 yards, 6 catches for 55 yards, 1 rec TD (16))

 3. Reggie Bush NO – 5 points (5 rushes for 25 yards, 4 catches for 38 yards)

Wide Receiver

 1. Pierre Garcon IND – 12 points (5 catches for 66 yards, 1 TD (19))

 2. Marques Colston NO – 8 points (7 catches for 83 yards)

T3. Austin Collie IND – 6 points (6 catches for 66 yards)

T3. Devery Henderson NO – 6 points (7 catches for 63 yards)

Tight End

 1. Dallas Clark IND – 15 points (7 catches for 86 yards)

 2. Jeremy Shockey NO – 8 points (3 catches for 13 yards, 1 TD (2))

Kicker

 1. Garrett Hartley NO – 17 points (3-for-3 in field goals (46,44,47), 2-for-2 in extra points)

 2. Matt Stover IND – 6 points (1-for-2 in field goals (38), 2-for-2 in extra points)

Defense/Special Team

 1. Saints NO – 8 points (1 INT, 1 INT-TD (74), 17 points allowed)

 2. Colts IND – 1 point (1 sack, 31 points allowed)

Super Bowl Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em Results (1-1-1)

QB: Drew Brees NO (start) vs. Peyton Manning IND (sit) – (W, Brees 23, Manning 17)

RB: Pierre Thomas NO (start) vs. Joseph Addai IND (sit) – (T, Thomas 16, Addai 16)

WR: Reggie Wayne IND (start) vs. Marques Colston NO (sit) – (L, Colston 8, Wayne 4)

Final Playoff Pick Standings

Straight Up: 7-4, AFC Champ: IND (W), NFC Champ: NO (W), Super Bowl: IND (L)

Against The Spread: 5-6, AFC Champ: NYJ (L), NFC Champ: NO (L), Super Bowl: IND (L)

Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em: 4-7-1 (Starts: 100 points, Sits: 113 points)

Upcoming Blog Schedule and Next Show

Our next blog posts will be:

• Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Hockey Edition – Week 19

• Show Notes #45

• Random Musings weekly sports column

Join us for our next installment of “Sports With The StatMan” on Sunday, February 14th, at a special time, 10pm ET.  We’ll chat for an hour on hockey, football, and a little baseball.  In hockey, we’ll have an Olympic Preview and break down the week for our local teams.  We’ll our 2009 NFL Season In Review to put a capper on the football season.  And, as always, what would an offseason show be without the Hot Stove.  All of this and more on a special Valentine’s Day edition of “Sports With The StatMan” on Sunday from 10-11pm Eastern.

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:

• Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan

• Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman

• “Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com

• iTunes: search for “Sports With The StatMan”