Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Random Musings: House Money

With the success of the New York Jets in the AFC Playoffs, the phone lines and radio waves have been burning with their hopes for this weekend’s AFC Championship Game against the mighty Indianapolis Colts. The Twitter streams and blog entries of Jet fans have crowed about how the Jets won their games, took care of business against teams that had very little to gain by suiting up and giving their all. The Jets defeated the Colts on their field, but MVP Peyton Manning only played for 2-1/2 quarters. The Jets embarrassed a Bengals team in the last game in the history of Giants Stadium, but the Bengals saw everything in the Jets’ bag of tricks.

Standing at 4-6, right before Thanksgiving, one thing Jet fans were not thankful for was the brash outspoken Jets, fresh from losing six of seven, their head coach, or their General Manager. Mark Sanchez? He is not ready to lead an offense, let alone manage an offense. Shonn Greene? He repeatedly fumbles the football. Kerry Rhodes? He was benched and, by the way, he has been a starter for the Jets since Day One and maybe he should not have had that job handed to him.

Then, the Jets beat Carolina, took care of Buffalo north of the border, and slapped Tampa Bay. After the Jet loss to Atlanta in Week 15 on a last-minute Falcons drive, the most depressing loss of the season, the fate of the Jets looked sealed. Coach Rex Ryan even admitted it.

But, just as the Shea Stadium scoreboard briefly flashed “Congratulations Red Sox” in the 10th inning of Game 6 of the 1986 World Series, the fat lady may have warmed up, the curtain may have even been raised, but she had not starting singing yet. A key loss by the Denver Broncos to the Oakland Raiders put the Jets back into playoff contention and the final two opponents were already preparing the playoffs and overlooking the Jets.

I had picked the Jets to go 6-10 this season, noting the rookie head coach and rookie quarterback would learn many lessons from this season that would be applied next season. I even expected the team to start 3-0 and lose 10 of their last 13. At 4-6, the Jets were exactly where I expected them to be. But, they learned quicker than I expected.

The offensive play-calling was better. The coach become more of a Head Coach instead of just a defensive coach by getting involved in the offense. The Jets bought in to Rex Ryan’s bravado. And, consequently, they started winning. Yes, they finished the regular season winning five of six. No matter how they won those games, they won those games. The Broncos, Texans, Steelers, Dolphins, and Jaguars need only blame themselves. The Jets earned their playoff berth.

There is saying that when a team outperforms its expectations for a year, anything more is “house money”. For any football team that makes the playoffs when they were not expected to make the playoffs, they are playing with house money. The Jets were not supposed to do much this year. You could say this is the first year of a rebuild or the first year of a three- or five-year plan. That is why the fact the Jets even qualified for the postseason meant they were playing with house money.

But, fans have a way of taking preseason expectations and changing them when good or bad things happen. It is true that the easy predictions that seem all too apparent get derailed by unforeseen circumstances. It is also true that each year, there are a bunch of teams that play better than advertised and those teams sometimes move way beyond any pundit’s expectations. A big trade or a key injury could turn seasons around, for better or worse.

The Jets have had their share of ups and downs. Braylon Edwards was traded to the Jets before Week 5, but Kris Jenkins, noted run stopper, was lost for the season in Week 6. The streakiness of the wins and losses have taken Jet fans for a rollercoaster ride and the fans are worried that the heights they are reaching now will only be equaled or surpassed by a crushing low.

Jet fans may have agreed that simply earning a playoff berth meant they were playing with house money. After a win against the Bengals in the Wild Card round, not only did the Jets vindicate their entry into the postseason, but it also vindicated part of how they got there by trampling the Bengals in Week 17, 37-0. Now, even the most hardened Jet detractors understood this was a successful season by any measure and house money was still on the table.

But, how can a win over San Diego in the Divisional Playoff suddenly squander that house money? Shouldn’t the Jets performance in the playoffs just be gravy? This week, hearing how the Jets have to beat to Colts and reach the Super Bowl, I wonder where all of that house money went. I think Jet fans are confusing the complete vindication for the Jets playoff run that a win over the Colts would bring with the house money that they should know they already have, no matter what happens on Sunday.

Jet fans are an emotional lot and this may only be an issue for fans of teams that have gone so long without winning a championship. The endless parade of quarterbacks to match Joe Namath’s 1968-69 guaranteed victory in Super Bowl III has been long and arduous. Most Jet fans are numb to the failures, which makes this year that much sweeter. But, suddenly, anything but a championship would constitute that crushing low most Jet fans know they will experience.

Take your house money, Jet fans, and enjoy the ride because next year, those expectations will make it much tougher to cash out. The combination of low expectations and high performance is a gateway to more expectations and more scrutiny in the next few years. But, that gateway is a path to glory. Seasons like this one for the Jets do not come along very often.

Sports With The StatMan #42: Show Notes

The creaking sound I heard over Thanksgiving was not the floor boards in my house. It was the coffin of the 4-and-6 New York Jets, propping itself open and allowing the Jets to climb out. Yes, they have had help from the Colts and the Bengals, but in the words of Vin Scully, when describing another former Shea Stadium tenant, the Jets “not onlyare [they] alive, they are well”.

EDIT: On the show, I mentioned the Show Notes from this week are from Episode #41. This week’s (January 17th) episode was #42.

Before we get to the timeline, take a look at last week’s Random Musings sports column, “Hall of the Very Good and Moral”.

Timeline
00:00-05:30 – Open: Jets survive and advance against the Chargers
05:30-08:30 – Show Topics: NFL Divisional Playoffs, NHL Devils-Rangers classic, Mets’ Beltran knee-gate
08:30-23:00 – NFL: Championship Game Matchups, More Jets-Chargers
23:00-30:00 – Colts good, not great against the Ravens
30:00-34:00 – Jets-Colts AFC Championship Game Preview
34:00-43:00 – NFC Divisional Playoffs: All Chalk – Saints’ Bush Whacks Cards
43:00-53:00 – Favre and the Vikings embarrass the Cowboys, Championship Game Schedule
53:00-60:00 – MLB: Is it time to finally cut bait on Mets GM Omar Minaya?, Mets’ CF plans
60:00-61:30 – NFL: Offensive/Defensive Player of the Year Awards, Coach of the Year
61:30-64:30 – NHL Game of the Week: Devils-Rangers 1-0 classic at the Garden
64:30-73:30 – Week In Review: Devils, Rangers, Islanders, Bruins, Flyers; Week Ahead
73:30-77:30 – Close: Upcoming Schedule, Next Week’s Show Preview

Main Points
00:00-05:30 – Open: Jets survive and advance against the Chargers
How about those New York Jets? It was beautiful in San Diego for the Jets, who got their wish. They win the right to play for a spot in Super Bowl XLIV. The Chargers were the only favorite to fall and the fifth-seeded Jets are the only team not to have a bye week still alive. QB Mark Sanchez managed to get into a rhythm and RB Shonn Greene rushed for 100 yards again, the first Jet RB to rush for 100 in back-to-back postseason games since Freeman McNeil.

Philip Rivers is the last of the trio of quarterbacks selected in the first 11 picks of the 2004 NFL Draft without a Super Bowl ring. San Diego picked first and traded its pick, Eli Manning, who had no desire to play for the Chargers, for Rivers, who was selected fourth by the Giants. Manning has a ring and Ben Roethlisberger, who went 11th to Pittsburgh, has two. The drought continues for another year.

05:30-08:30 – Show Topics: NFL Divisional Playoffs, NHL Devils-Rangers classic, Mets’ Beltran knee-gate
It was chalk all the way in the other three Divisional Playoff games.
One of the greatest regular season games you will ever see at the Garden last Tuesday night.
Is it finally time to say goodbye to Omar Minaya?

08:30-23:00 – NFL: Championship Game Matchups, More Jets-Chargers
New Orleans will be rocking on Sunday, as the top-ranked Saints will be taking on Brett Favre and the second-seeded Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. The Saints have never been to the Super Bowl and while Favre has one championship under his belt, the Vikings have never won the big game. One of those teams will have a chance to win its first Super Bowl.

The Colts host the Jets in the AFC Championship Game. The Jets beat the Colts in Super Bowl III when the Colts played in Baltimore and sided with the NFL. Since then, the Colts changed over to the AFC, won a Super Bowl (V, against the Cowboys), and moved to Indianapolis before winning Super Bowl XLI after the 2006 season.

San Diego has become Philip Rivers’s team. It is no longer LaDainian Tomlinson’s team, but the offense is now a passing attack. Rex Ryan showed guts in deferred possession after winning the coin flip. San Diego moved the ball early, but Nate Kaeding had the first of his big misses. Kickers make such easy foils, but how bad was Kaeding for the Chargers? He was 0-for-3, hooking a 36-yard field goal there, missing a tough 57-yarder at the end of the first half to increase their 7-0 lead, and coming up empty on a pivotal 38-yard try at 17-7 with about 4:30 left in the 4th quarter.

The Jets punted six times in six first-half possessions and only picked up their initial first down with about 8-1/2 minutes left in the first half. But, the Jets got the ball first in the 2nd half only down 7-0. The Jets are not a team that could match San Diego’s offense, so they had to chip away and they did. The Jets got on the board with a field goal and stopped San Diego to build momentum. After a Sanchez interception, Darrelle Revis had an amazing interception on a Rivers throw that was tipped by Vincent Jackson. Rivers threw another interception later and Jim Leonhard put the Jets in great scoring position, at the 16-yard line. That set up the rolling touchdown throw from Sanchez to Dustin Keller to give the Jets their first lead of the game very early in the 4th quarter. Greene gave the Jets even more swagger with a 53-yard score up the middle to go up 17-7.

After that, the Chargers did not run the ball a single time and Rivers only ran the shotgun. The missed field goals killed the Chargers because Rivers nudged the ball over the goal line to cut the Jet lead to three. Kerry Rhodes recovered an onside kick and the Jets needed one first down to run out the clock. On a 4th-and-1 from the San Diego 29, believing in his offense and especially his offensive line to get that one yard, Rex Ryan went for it and got the first down to seal the 17-14 victory.

The Jets pressured Rivers most of the day, but he managed to pass for 298 yards, while the winning quarterback, Sanchez, only threw for 100 yards.

23:00-30:00 – Colts good, not great against the Ravens
The Colts defense was surprisingly stout against the Ravens rushing offense, only allowing 87 yards to Baltimore. Ray Rice only had 67 yards all game. Remember, he started the Wild Card game against the Patriots off with a 83-yard run. The Colts took a 17-3 lead at the half and you never really felt the Ravens were coming back in the second half with their offense. Baltimore could not strike back after the two Colt touchdowns in the second quarter. Ed Reed almost made a big difference in the game, intercepting a Peyton Manning pass and bringing it back for a big return. But, Pierre Garcon, who trailed the play, tackled Reed and forced a fumble that the Colts recovered.

The Colts advanced because of their defense. Peyton Manning was not the Peyton Manning we are used to seeing. They broke their personal streak of three straight playoff losses after a bye week. For the Ravens, the second-year coach, John Harbaugh, and the second-year quarterback, Joe Flacco, have started their careers very well by getting to the second round both years. They have a lot of great pieces to their team, but they have no one to catch the ball.

30:00-34:00 – Jets-Colts AFC Championship Game Preview
The Colts have their chance to beat the Jets and avenge a loss directed by Bill Polian. The Jets are going to be walking into a minefield, but the Jets have proven to be road warriors, winning five in a row. The Jets had the best rushing offense and they have to continue that against the Colts.

The Colts did not run the ball very well, as Joseph Addai was banged up. The running game for the Colts is more of a change-of-pace. The Jets have to worry about Reggie Wayne, but the Jets will put Revis on Wayne. Dallas Clark will present more of a mismatch than Antonio Gates because Clark has had a better season than Gates this year. Clark is a tweener, with the speed and hands of a wide receiver, but the size of a tight end. Manning can find Clark deep and Clark can run after the catch.

Everyone on the Jets has to do a little more than they did against San Diego. The Jets have to do the same thing they did with Gates and more against Clark. Revis has to do the same thing he did against Jackson and more against Wayne. Greene need to do what he did last week and more against the Colts. Sanchez has to keep growing before our eyes. If all of those four things happen, the Jets may punch their ticket for Miami.

34:00-43:00 – NFC Divisional Playoffs: All Chalk – Saints’ Bush Whacks Cards
No one saw Reggie Bush coming. He is back on the scene, scoring a rushing touchdown and returning a punt for a score. I thought the Cardinals and Saints would be able to punch and counterpunch and that is how it was for the first quarter-plus. The first play from scrimmage for Arizona was a Tim Hightower 70-yard run, which was similar to Ray Rice’s start in Foxboro last week. But, the Cardinals could not stop the Saints from getting three touchdowns of their own in the first quarter and taking off before the end of the half.

Kurt Warner threw an interception and was knocked out for a while and the Saints scored a couple of quick touchdowns before the half. Warner is a great rhythm passer and the Saints disrupted the rhythm by getting in his face. Gregg Williams earned his paycheck with his blitzing defense, pressuring and hurrying Warner. There is speculation that Warner will retire in the offseason. With the numbers he put up in a relatively short career, Warner is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He has a championship and Super Bowl MVP, going 9-4 in his postseason.

The Saints win stops a two-year streak of #1 seeds losing in the Divisional Playoff round and #1 seeds are now 18-2 in the last 20 years in the Divisional Playoff round. Not enough can be said about the decibel level and the crazy fans in the Superdome, which is where the Saints will have a chance to qualify for their first Super Bowl.

43:00-53:00 – Favre and the Vikings embarrass the Cowboys, Championship Game Schedule
This game was supposed to be the closest of the week and it ended up being a laugher. Dallas was unhappy at the end of the game, accusing the Vikings of running up the score. Brett Favre threw a touchdown pass to Visanthe Shiancoe with under two minutes left.

The Brett Favre-to-Sidney Rice connection is alive and well, with Rice catching three touchdown passes. Some say Favre is due for a game with a lot of interceptions. He had 33 TD and only 7 interceptions and had 4 more touchdown passes and no picks against the Cowboys. The 7 interceptions is his lowest in a full season and the +26 difference in TD and INT is tied for his best. In 1996, he also had a +26 differential (39 TD, 13 INT) and won the Super Bowl.

The Vikings defense was led by Jared Allen, who had a great start to the season, but has not been great lately. He was able to sack Tony Romo and force a fumble. The defense had six sacks of Romo and kept him contained so he could not roll out and make plays downfield. It was not pretty for the Cowboys. There were seven Dallas drives of four plays or less and only five first downs in the second half, when they were already down 17-3.

Look for a new guard-old guard classic matchup of quarterbacks with Drew Brees and the Saints taking on Brett Favre and the Vikings. For the picks of the AFC and NFC title games, look for the “Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition – Conference Championship Weekend” blog, which will be out on Saturday.

53:00-60:00 – MLB: Is it time to finally cut bait on Mets GM Omar Minaya?, Mets’ CF plans
The latest Met news is Carlos Beltran’s arthroscopic knee surgery that will keep him out of action in April. According to Beltran, he told Met GM Omar Minaya of the surgery, to which Minaya told him “good luck” and to “let him know how it goes”. Minaya denied that he okayed the surgery.

I have given Minaya the benefit of the doubt in the late-season collapses and the injuries. They weren’t his fault. If signing Oliver Perez to a 3-year/$36 million deal was strike one and the handling of the Tony Bernazard situation which turned into the Adam Rubin fiasco was strike two, this might be strike three.

Having a high-profile star player like Carlos Beltran engaging in a “he said/he said” situation cannot be tolerated, especially since Beltran is a player that you want to keep beyond his contract, which runs out after 2011.

What are the Mets going to do in centerfield? Rick Ankiel? Too fragile an ego. Another bat would help, but Bengie Molina has not signed yet. Orlando Hudson wants $9 million and the Nationals are interested. Johnny Damon is not a good fit. He has no arm and his power at Citi Field would be non-existent. Otherwise, it will be Angel Pagan’s job to lose and that might not be in the Mets best interests.

60:00-61:30 – NFL: Offensive/Defensive Player of the Year Awards, Coach of the Year
Chris Johnson won the Offensive Player of the Year and Charles Woodson takes home the Defensive Player of the Year. Darrelle Revis was very deserving of the Defensive Player of the Year, and after the game this week, it shows how glaring his omission was. Johnson definitely deserved his honor, rushing for 2,000 yards. Marvin Lewis wins Coach of the Year. He was on the hot seat when the season started and his Bengals won the AFC North, qualifying for the playoffs for the second time in 19 years.

61:30-64:30 – NHL Game of the Week: Devils-Rangers 1-0 classic at the Garden
One of the best regular-season games you will ever see was played at the Garden on Tuesday night. The Devils defeated the Rangers in a shootout, 1-0, after 96 shots were taken and none of them hit the back of the net. Martin Brodeur stopped 51 shots and Lundqvist turned aside 45. Patrik Elias won the game in the fourth round with a snap shot over Lundqvist’s glove. Including the six of seven shootout attempts that was on net before Elias scored, there were 102 total shots on goal before Elias’s winner.

64:30-73:30 – Week In Review: Devils, Rangers, Islanders, Bruins, Flyers; Week Ahead
Devils: It was the highest of the highs and lowest of the lows for Patrik Elias. Elias scored the shootout winner against the Rangers, but got blasted by Colorado defenseman Ryan Wilson and was removed from the game on a stretcher.

Rangers: After being shutout at home by the Devils, they were shut out by another Brodeur – Mike Brodeur – on Thursday night. A long scoreless string was snapped in St. Louis on Saturday night, but the scoreless streak at home is at 126:05.

Islanders: The Isles are 8-2-1 in their last 11 and 5-1 in their last six at home. Rick DiPietro had his first home start since the day after Christmas, 2008 and won the game by shootout, 3-2. DiPietro did not have the same movement issues he had against Dallas in his first start.

Bruins: The Bruins finished 1-1-1 on their California trip, getting the win at San Jose in a shootout, losing to the Ducks and the Kings in a shootout. The Bruins have the draft picks to really get involved in the Ilya Kovalchuk sweepstakes. They have five in the first two rounds, including the Leafs first-rounder.

Flyers: The Flyers are 8-2-1 in their last 11 and they have been scoring first consistently. But, this week, they had one good game against Dallas and a bad one against the Leafs. Michael Leighton is still starting in goal even after Ray Emery has returned to the active roster.

Week Ahead: The Devils play the Islanders twice at the Nassau Coliseum and the Rangers visit Philadelphia on Thursday night. For more about the next week in hockey, check out the “Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Hockey Edition – Week 16” blog.

73:30-77:30 – Close: Upcoming Schedule, Next Week’s Show Preview
Next Week
Next Sunday night (January 24th), Sports With The StatMan (#43) breaks down the Divisional Championship round. The NFC Championship Game will be in the second half when we start the show, so we will break down the AFC Title Game between the Jets and Colts and talk about the Vikings-Saints game. The Devils play the Islanders twice in six days at Nassau Coliseum. And, what new controversy will surround the Mets this week? We’ll talk about it all and more on Sports With The StatMan.

Upcoming Schedule
• Wednesday: “Random Musings” Sports Column (blog)
• Saturday: Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition – Conference Championship Weekend (blog)
• Sunday: Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Hockey Edition – Week 17 (blog)
• Sunday, 8-9pm ET: Sports With The StatMan: No. 42 (live show)

* All blogs will be available on our “secondary” blog, which is called “Random Musings from the StatMan” (http://gstatman.blogspot.com). You can listen to the show live at our show page (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan) or download the podcast, which is normally available 15 minutes after the show, either from the show page or from iTunes (search: Sports With The StatMan).

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:
• Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
• Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
• “Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com

Send your pro or fantasy questions or comments on the Show Page or the “Random Musings” blog, or you can send me a tweet. I’ll be sure to get back to you. Also, check the show page for times and schedules of our one-hour show and our Fantasy Football and Fantasy Hockey Editions.

Monday, January 18, 2010

Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Hockey Edition - Week 16

After a relatively slow week, only four weeks have more games than there are this week (53 games). For the Sunday-to-Saturday scoring period, 18 teams (60% of the league) have four games to play. The locals did not chip in much on the offensive side of the game, as the best local forward (Rob Schremp) was tied for 38th in the league.

WEEK 15 REVIEW
THREE STARS
Forwards
- 1st Star: Guillaume Latendresse MIN – 33 points (4-4-8 in 4 games, +5, 1 PPG)
- 2nd Star: Ilya Kovalchuk ATL – 26 points (3-3-6 in 3 games, +5, 1 PPG)
- 3rd Star: Patrick Marleau SJS – 22 points (3-2-5 in 4 games, +3, 2 PIM, 1 PPG, 1 SHG)

Local Forwards
- 1st Star: Rob Schremp NYI – 11 points (Tied-#38 F overall, 2-0-2 in 2 games, +2)
- 2nd Star: Matt Moulson NYI – 9 points (Tied-#60 F overall, 1-0-1 in 2 games, +2)
- 3rd Star: 7 tied with 7 points (Tied-#81 F overall – Brian Rolston NJD, Michael Ryder/Marco Sturm/Blake Wheeler BOS, Sean Bergenheim/Kyle Okposo/John Tavares NYI)

Defensemen
- 1st Star: Ed Jovanovski PHX – 25.5 points (0-4-4 in 1 game, +4)
- 2nd Star: Joni Pitkanen CAR – 22.5 points (0-6-6 in 4 games, 6 PIM)
- 3rd Star, tie: Tobias Enstrom ATL – 20.5 points (1-2-3 in 3 games, +4)
- 3rd Star, tie: Mike Green WSH – 20.5 points (2-3-5 in 3 games, 4 PIM, 2 PPG)

Local Defensemen
- 1st Star: Mark Streit NYI – 16 points (Tied-#7 D overall, 1-2-3 in 2 games, +2, 2 PIM, 1 PPG)
- 2nd Star: Bruno Gervais NYI – 14 points (Tied-#12 D overall, 1-1-2 in 2 games, +3)
- 3rd Star: Matt Carle PHL – 11 points (Tied-#20 D overall, 0-2-2 in 2 games, +1)

Goaltenders
- 1st Star: Chris Mason STL – 26.2 points (3-0-0 in 3 games, 1 shutout, 0.67 GAA, .971 SvPct)
- 2nd Star: Mike Brodeur OTT – 22.4 points (2-0-0 in 2 games, 1 shutout, 1.00 GAA, .969 SvPct)
- 3rd Star: Evgeni Nabokov SJS – 21.6 points (2-0-1 in 3 games, 0.97 GAA, .969 SvPct)

Local Goaltenders
- 1st Star: Martin Brodeur NJD – 18.8 points (Tied-#7 G overall, 1-2-0 in 3 games, 1 shutout, 1.97 GAA, .938 SvPct)
- 2nd Star: Henrik Lundqvist NYR – 18 points (#11 G overall, 0-1-1 in 2 games, 1 shutout, 0.48 GAA, .987 SvPct)
- 3rd Star: Tim Thomas BOS – 14 points (#14 G overall, 1-0-1 in 2 games, 1.85 GAA, .947 SvPct)

Special Teams
- Best in League: Ottawa Senators +10 (0-7 PP, 14-15 PK, 1 SHG, 0 SHGA)
- Best among locals: Philadelphia Flyers +9 (Tied-#2 ST overall, 2-8 PP, 9-9 PK, 1 SHG, 0 SHGA)

WEEK 16 PREVIEW
SCHEDULE
4-Game Weeks:
- Sunday-to-Saturday scoring period: Anaheim, Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, Florida, Montreal, New Jersey, N.Y. Islanders, N.Y. Rangers, Ottawa, Philadelphia, San Jose, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Washington
- Monday-to-Sunday scoring period: Atlanta, Boston, Buffalo, Carolina, Columbus, Dallas, Florida, New Jersey, N.Y. Islanders, Ottawa, Philadelphia, San Jose, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Toronto

2-Game Weeks:
- Sunday-to-Saturday scoring period: Colorado, Pittsburgh
- Monday-to-Sunday scoring period: Calgary

Local Matchups:
- Devils at Islanders (Monday and Saturday)
- Rangers at Flyers (Thursday)

START ‘EM and SIT ‘EM
Last Week (Start vs. Sit)
- Forwards: Joe Pavelski SJS (0-1-1 in 4 games, +2) vs. James Neal DAL (1-0-1 in 4 games, -3) (W, 3 to 0)
- Defensemen: Brian Pothier WSH (1-0-1 in 2 games, +1) vs. Dion Phaneuf CGY (0-0-0 in 3 games, -1) (W, 6 to minus-2)
- Goaltending: Pascal Leclaire OTT (0-2 in 2 games, 5.25 GAA, .851 SvPct) vs. Tim Thomas BOS (1-0-1 in 2 games, 1.85 GAA, .947 SvPct) (L, 14 to minus-3)

Season: 5-1 (2-1 this week)

This Week (Start vs. Sit)
Forwards
- Start: Tomas Fleischmann WSH – Fleischmann is 2-4-6 in his last six games and has three games this week, including two at home (vs DET, vs PHX).
- Sit: Jarome Iginla CGY – A 2-game week against two tough opponents (@ SJ, vs CHI) and Iginla has no points in six games.

Defensemen
- Start: Joni Pitkanen CAR – 0-6-6 in last 3 games, minus-13 +/- on the season, but +3 in last 10 games. Pitkanen has a three-game week, including two against divisional rivals (vs TBY, @ ATL)
- Sit: Sheldon Souray EDM – His Oilers career may come to an abrupt end, as he is willing to waive his no-trade clause. Souray is playing at a minus-5 in his last three games and has not had a plus rating in 11 games.

Goaltending
- Start: Chris Mason STL – Mason is starting to find his game and he may turn the Blues fortunes around just like last season. His Blues have four games, including a back-to-back in Canada (@ MTL, @ OTT)
- Sit: Jonathan Quick LAK – The third goalie on the U.S. Olympic team has a challenging week against top conference teams (vs SJ, vs BUF) and a trip to Hockeytown (@ DET).

Upcoming Blog Schedule
Tuesday: Show Notes from Sunday (Sports With The StatMan #42) (blog)
Wednesday: Random Musings (weekly sports column - blog)
Saturday: Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition - Conference Championship Weekend (blog)
Sunday: Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Hockey Edition - Week 17 (blog)
Sunday: Sports With The StatMan (#43) (live show, 8-9pm Eastern time)

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition – Divisional Championship Weekend

The Wild Card Round involved three of the four local teams, with only the Giants watching the playoffs from home. The Eagles and Patriots bowed to the Cowboys and Ravens, respectively. The Jets remain in the fight for the promised land, as they advanced against the Bengals. The Jets are also as big an underdog as any other team, tied with the Cardinals as seven-point underdogs.

Before we get to our predictions and Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em for the Divisional Championship Round, let’s recap the Wild Card Round:

Wild Card Round Top Fantasy Performers
Quarterback
1. Kurt Warner ARZ – 47 points (29-for-33, 379 yards, 5 TD (15,15,33,11,17), 0 INT)
2. Aaron Rodgers GBY – 44 points (28-for-42, 422 yards, 4 TD (6,10,30,11), 1 INT, 3 rushes for 13 yards, 1 rushing TD (1), 1 fumble lost)
T3. Tony Romo DAL – 17 points (23-for-35, 244 yards, 2 TD (1,6), 0 INT, 2 rushes for 4 yards)
T3. Mark Sanchez NYJ – 17 points (12-for-15, 182 yards, 1 TD (45), 0 INT, 3 rushes for -2 yards)

Running Back
1. Ray Rice BAL – 29 points (22 rushes for 159 yards, 2 TD (83,1))
T2. Cedric Benson CIN – 27 points (21 rushes for 169 yards, TD (47), 3 catches for 12 yards)
T2. Felix Jones DAL – 27 points (16 rushes for 148 yards, TD (73), 1 catch for 30 yards)

Wide Receiver
1. Jeremy Maclin PHL – 24 points (7 catches for 146 yards, TD (76))
2. Larry Fitzgerald ARZ – 21 points (6 catches for 82 yards, 2 TD (33,11), 1 fumble lost)
3. Steve Breaston ARZ – 20 points (7 catches for 125 yards, TD (17), 1 rush for 28 yards)

Tight End
1. Dustin Keller NYJ – 22 points (3 catches for 99 yards, TD (45))
2. Jermichael Finley GBY – 21 points (6 catches for 159 yards)
3. Spencer Havner GBY – 9 points (2 catches for 16 yards, TD (11))

Kicker
1. Scott Suisham DAL – 12 points (2-for-2 in field goals (25,48), 4-for-4 in extra points)
T2. Mason Crosby GBY – 9 points (1-for-2 in field goals (20), 6-for-6 in extra points)
T2. Billy Cundiff BAL – 9 points (2-for-2 in field goals (27), 3-for-3 in extra points)
T2. Neil Rackers ARZ – 9 points (1-for-2 in field goals (23), 6-for-6 in extra points)

Defense/Special Team
T1. Cardinals ARZ – 13 points (1 INT, 5 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, 1 FRTD (17), 45 points allowed)
T1. Cowboys DAL – 13 points (1 INT, 4 sacks, 3 fumble recoveries, 14 points allowed)
3. Ravens BAL – 12 points (3 INT, 3 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 14 points allowed)

DIVISIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND SCHEDULE
Saturday 4:30pm - Arizona at New Orleans (-7)
Saturday 8:15pm - Baltimore at Indianapolis (-6)
Sunday 1:00pm - Dallas at Minnesota (-3)
Sunday 4:30pm - N.Y. Jets at San Diego (-7)

Divisional Championship Picks:
ARZ-NO: Saints win, but Cardinals (+7) cover
The Cardinals just came off a big offensive showdown against the Packers and this looks like a similar matchup. The Saints are also a passing offense and their defense has a tendency to be overrated just like the Packers. The Saints started the season with a great defense, but they have been pedestrian over their last six games. Look for a punch-and-counterpunch type of game and a rested Saints team winning by a field goal.

BAL-IND: Colts win and cover (-6)
The Ravens are at their best when they run the ball, and the Colts are at their worst when they defend the run, especially without Bob Sanders, who is out for the season. But, the Colts have shown they do not need much time to execute their offensive plan and the Ravens may only be able to score on the Colts by grinding out long drives and running the ball. If the Colts pass well, quick scores will be needed and the Ravens will have a tough time doing that.

DAL-MIN: Vikings win and cover (-3)
The Cowboys are a tough team to figure. They win when you expect them to lose and they have lost when you expect them to win, that is, until last week. The Cowboys beat the Eagles and looked good doing it. So, naturally, a struggling Vikings team should fall prey to a hot Cowboys team, right? Wrong. The Cowboys will prove why they are such an enigmatic team against Favre and his weapons.

NYJ-SDG: Chargers win, but Jets cover (+7)
The Chargers come in to this game healthy (1 player on the injury report) and with the two best receivers on either team (Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates). But, the Jets won on rushing and defense. Their defense will have to be at their best, and for the Jets to win, Darrelle Revis needs to have a big day shutting down Jackson and the rest of the defense has to find a way to shut down Gates. The maturation of Mark Sanchez will continue, but he will not be able to pull this one out.

Start 'Em/Sit 'Em
QB: Tony Romo DAL (start) vs. Kurt Warner ARZ (sit)
How can you sit a quarterback after a 29-for-33 performance? Easy. When the Saints defense blitzes, Warner will have to find the open man very quickly and Anquan Boldin will miss another game. The best defense against Warner is a blitzing defense that gets to Warner. Romo may find his receivers deep against a mediocre Vikings secondary.

RB: Willis McGahee BAL (start) vs. LaDainian Tomlinson SDG (sit)
The Ravens will be able to run on the Colts and though McGahee is the backup to Ray Rice in the Ravens backfield, McGahee will still get enough touches, possibly matching the 20 carries he had last week. The Chargers are no longer Tomlinson’s team. This is Philip Rivers’s team and the Chargers run a passing offense. Other than goal-line touches, Tomlinson should not be a featured part of the offense.

WR: Robert Meachem NO (start) vs. Vincent Jackson SDG (sit)
When the Saints last won games, Meachem was the go-to guy. The Saints are going to have to pass their way past the Cardinals with all of the injuries to their running backs. Jackson will go up against Darrelle Revis, who brings with him an impressive resume of shutting down top wideouts.

Last Week’s Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em Results (2-1)
QB: Joe Flacco BAL (start) vs. Carson Palmer CIN (sit) – (L, Palmer 9, Flacco minus-1)
RB: Chris Wells ARZ (start) vs. Marion Barber DAL (sit) – (W, Wells 9, Barber 0)
WR: Julian Edelman NE (start) vs. Anquan Boldin ARZ (sit) – (W, Edelman 12, Boldin DNP)

Playoff Team Rankings
Quarterbacks
1. Manning IND, 2. Brees NO, 3. Favre MIN, 4. Warner ARZ, 5. Rivers SDG, 6. Romo DAL, 7. Flacco BAL, 8. Sanchez NYJ

Rushing
1. Jones/Greene NYJ, 2. Rice/McGahee/McClain BAL, 3. Peterson/Taylor MIN, 4. Barber/Jones/Choice DAL, 5. Tomlinson/Sproles SDG, 6. Addai/Brown IND, 7. Bell/Thomas/Bush NO, 8. Wells/Hightower ARZ

Receiving (WR/WR/TE)
1. Wayne/Garcon/Clark IND, 2. Fitzgerald/Breaston/Doucet ARZ, 3. Colston/Meachem/Shockey NO, 4. Rice/Harvin/Shiancoe MIN, 5. Austin/Williams/Witten DAL, 6. Jackson/Floyd/Gates SDG, 7. Cotchery/Edwards/Keller NYJ, 8. Mason/Clayton/Heap BAL

Kicking
1. Kaeding SDG, 2. Longwell MIN, 3. Feely NYJ, 4. Suisham DAL, 5. Rackers ARZ, 6. Stover IND, 7. Cundiff BAL, 8. Hartley NO

Coach
1. Whisenhunt ARZ, 2. Harbaugh BAL, 3. Payton NO, 4. Turner SDG, 5. Ryan NYJ, 6. Childress MIN, 7. Phillips DAL, 8. Caldwell IND

Defense/Special Teams
1. NYJ, 2. BAL, 3. MIN, 4. NO, 5. DAL, 6. SDG, 7. IND, 8. ARZ

Total Rankings
1. MIN (21), 2. NYJ (25), T3. NO (27), T3. SDG (27), T5. ARZ (28), T5. BAL (28), 7. IND (29), 8. DAL (31)

Playoff Pick Standings
Straight Up: 2-2, NYJ (W), DAL (L), BAL (L), ARZ (W)
Against The Spread: 2-2, NYJ (W), DAL (L), BAL (L), ARZ (W)
Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em: 2-1 (Starts: 20 points, Sits: 9 points)

We will break down each of the four Divisional Championship matchups on Sports With The StatMan (#42) this Sunday night, January 17th. Join us at our new time, 8-9pm Eastern. We will be among the first to analyze the upcoming Conference Championship games. Besides football, we'll talk about the Carlos Beltran situation. We will also have some NHL talk, as the Devils beat the Rangers in a classic at the Garden and the Islanders are surprising even themselves.

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:
• Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
• Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
• “Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Random Musings: Hall of the Very Good and Moral

Mark McGwire finally talked about the past. It has been almost five years since he basically took the Fifth in front of Congress and he refused to talk about his playing days and the intimation that he took steroids. Now, he is coming clean, or clean as he can get, before taking the field as a hitting coach for the St. Louis Cardinals this season to avoid the media crush that would meet him in Florida next month.

McGwire was a prodigious hitter in his youth, but he was tall and lanky. He hit 49 home runs as a rookie in 1987, which is still a record. Suddenly, seemingly overnight, Big Mac bulked up to become an extreme power hitter. In between, there were some injuries and some Dave Kingman-like homer-or-strikeout type of seasons.

He broke records, but the ill-gotten gains have eaten away at him and the perception of the public about him. I do not think his coming-out party was done for the fans and it probably was not even done so he could get into the Hall of Fame, though I am sure he wants in and it cannot hurt his candidacy. But, the fact that he is a candidate is shameful.

The National Baseball Hall of Fame should have their own standards to which players should adhere. The writers vote their conscience, but they have become the keepers of the Hall of Fame flame. The benefactors and the caretakers of the hallowed Hall should rule on this. They should resolve to keep cheaters out of the game. After all, Pete Rose is banned by baseball and eliminated from eligibility to the Hall of Fame. He is a cheater.

But, if you keep out the all-time hits leader, you should keep out all who have cheated. I would rather have the Hall of the Very Good and Moral, with players admitted who may not be all-time greats, but are clean and free from cheating, than the Hall of Fame as it is and as it will be in the next few years. In the next few years, a lot more questionable players are eligible to be inducted. These hard questions will only get harder. McGwire received 23% of the writer’s vote this year and, in my opinion, that is way too much. He was a one-dimensional player who was artificially aided to prop up that one dimension. I would rather have Andre Dawson in the Hall of Fame than McGwire, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, or Manny Ramirez.

How do we weed out the cheaters from the clean players? If a player is admitted to the Hall of Fame, but later found to have taken performance-enhancing drugs, take his plaque down. Remove his name from the all-time records. Wouldn’t that be an effective deterrent for today’s players? If not, the future offenders truly would not care if they are ever considered for the Hall of Fame. For the ones that cannot be caught, there is no choice but to let their candidacy, their Hall of Fame entry, and their statistics to stand. You can only act on what you know. But, the court of public opinion will believe what it wants to believe.

As it is, if a player in the Hall today or voted into the Hall in the future enhanced his performance with drugs, you, as a consumer, have the option of ignoring the value of the Hall of Fame in telling the real story of baseball and honoring its great players. Don’t visit. Don’t donate. Don’t pay attention to the entry speeches because the Hall of Fame has been cheapened and sullied for the players already in there.

The argument for Barry Bonds still being a Hall of Famer despite his testimony that he unknowingly took steroids is based on his natural ability people saw in the late 1980s and early 1990s, not his numbers in his later years, which includes his record-setting 73 home run season. But, in that case, Bonds is no more a Hall of Famer than Darryl Strawberry, Dwight Gooden, or Don Mattingly. If the Hall of Fame is solely judged on talent, all four deserve to be in there. The Hall of Fame is judged more on the production of a player as compared to his peers and his predecessors. And, the production of a player is artificial if it was produced artificially.

Whether it was to avoid injury and get back on the field or lift more weight to be stronger and hit the ball farther, it is still an artificial way to enhance your performance. McGwire believes he would have broken Roger Maris’s single-season home run mark in 1998 without these substances. I beg to differ. He might have retired in 1994 from the back injuries he had in his days in Oakland. He never would have put on a Cardinals uniform. How many other players would have met the same end to their careers? How many of those players are going to get serious consideration for the Hall of Fame? How many will make it?

We may never know. But, we have control over what we do know and we can prove.

Mike Greenwell finished second in the American League MVP race in 1988 to a “juiced” Jose Canseco, who injected himself to 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases. But, those are just statistics and personal accolades. How many home runs were hit to win ball games? How many times were pennants won or lost by juiced players? There were probably more than you think. About one-third of the 2000 World Champion New York Yankees were at least accused of performance-enhancing substances. How does the team that lost, the New York Mets, feel about that?

For the sake of the “clean” players and for the sake of the fans who hold the World Series, pennants, records, and memories dear, players like Mark McGwire do not deserve the Hall of Fame. Guys like McGwire do not deserve a plaque in their honor. They do not deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as the real greats. Our kids should not recite their names when listing the 500 Home Run Club. All baseball fans should celebrate what is good with the game, not where the game went wrong.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Sports With The StatMan #41: Show Notes

There is nothing better than a lot to talk about and there was enough football for two shows. Take a listen to last week's show by clicking here.

Timeline
00:00-06:00 Open: NFL Wild Card Weekend: Packers-Cards OT thriller and the possible end of McNabb’s run with the Eagles
06:00-09:00 – Ravens-Patriots surprise
09:00-14:00 – Jets-Bengals not as surprising
14:00-20:00 – Cowboys explode on the Eagles
20:00-25:00 – Hockey: The Great Outdoors, Islanders Play Well But Lose Ground
25:00-38:00 – NFL Wild Card Weekend: Positional Ranking Results, More Jets-Bengals
38:00-40:00 – Cardinals let the Packers off the mat, but still win
40:00-45:00 – Next Week’s NFL Playoff Schedule and Preview
45:00-49:00 – NFL: Around the League, Final Top Performers Records
49:00-56:00 – StatMan’s 1st Annual All-Surprise and All-Disappointment Teams, Final Pick Results
56:00-63:00 – NHL Recap: Rangers sweep Bruins, Atlantic Division Winning, DP Is Back
63:00-67:00 – Close: Upcoming Schedule, Next Week’s Show Preview

Main Points
00:00-06:00 Open: NFL Wild Card Weekend: Packers-Cards OT thriller and the possible end of McNabb’s run with the Eagles
The Packers-Cards game ended during the opening minutes of the program and we did a quick breakdown of Karlos Dansby’s game-winning fumble return for a touchdown after Aaron Rodgers fumbled at his own 17-yard-line. Where on Earth did Early Doucet come from? There were over 1,000 yards of offense in the highest-scoring playoff game in NFL history. What were the odds that a game with that much offense was settled on a defensive touchdown.

Is this weekend’s loss by the Eagles to the Cowboys going to spell the end for Donovan McNabb in an Eagles uniform? He spent 11 years as the front man for the Eagles. He took them to a Super Bowl and several NFC Championship Games, but he could not win the big one. Is this a time to change and hand the team over to Kevin Kolb? Michael Vick is still technically under contract, so he might figure in to the Eagles’ plans as well.

Divisional Championship Weekend culminates in the Jets playing at San Diego on Sunday. The last time the Jets won a playoff game was against those Chargers in San Diego in 2005.

06:00-09:00 - Ravens-Patriots surprise
Normally, Wild Card Weekend is easier to figure out the winners, but this was a surprising weekend. The Ravens defeating the Patriots was more surprising than the Jets win at Cincinnati. I thought New England would have the easiest time of any playoff team this weekend against Baltimore.

This game was decided early, as Baltimore was up big before you knew it. Ray Rice scored from the first play from scrimmage and that was the first time the Ravens scored first since Super Bowl XXXV against the Giants. New England is not a team to turn the ball over, but there was Tom Brady, fumbling early and throwing three interceptions. The first home loss for the Patriots this year comes at the worst possible time, a 33-14 Wild Card loss to Baltimore. The sure things in Brady and the Patriots at Gillette were not so sure at all.

09:00-14:00 – Jets-Bengals not as surprising
The Jets win was no surprise. Last week, the Bengals were not at their best, but 37-0 is 37-0. Shonn Greene was better than Thomas Jones and Dustin Keller was fantastic. Mark Sanchez did not overdo it. Brian Schottenheimer did his best coaching job of his career. And, Carson Palmer, oh, how the mighty have fallen. He was on the verge of becoming an elite quarterback, but has still not been the same since his knee injury against Pittsburgh four years ago. The Bengals have not been the same this year since they lost their deep threat, Chris Henry, to tragedy.

The younger USC quarterback did a better job of managing the offense. Sanchez did not turn the ball over. Chad “Ocho-No-Show” only had two catches for 28 yards, as Darrelle Revis took one ball away and shut #85 down. The Jets have made the most of their late-season gifts from Indianapolis and Cincinnati. But, who cares how they got in? They are in the tournament and they are one of the six teams from the AFC that made it. All the Jets need to care about is surviving and advancing, and that is exactly what they did. The Jets are the only local team still alive, as the Patriots and Eagles both lost.

14:00-20:00 – Cowboys explode on the Eagles
The Eagles got crushed by the Cowboys. Dallas put the nail in the coffin with Felix Jones’s 73-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. Dallas exploded for 27 points in the second quarter to get to that point. But, the Eagles counterattacked quickly when Dallas went up, 7-0, by Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin connecting on a 76-yard touchdown. What happened after that was awful.

Tony Romo has had his problems in December and the bad snap in the playoffs against Seattle at home a few years ago. This time, he was not spectacular, but no picks and a couple of touchdowns. He managed the game and the Cowboys ran the ball extremely well on the Eagles defense, which left something to be desired. You wonder what kind of change the Eagles are going to have.

While I have thought and written it is very tough to sweep a team a divisional rival in the regular season and beat that team again in the playoffs, the records say otherwise. This is the 20th opportunity since 1970 that a team could take all three games in the same season, but the Cowboys were the 13th team to do so.

McNabb has always come up small in the big games. My lasting memory of McNabb is having the ball with a few minutes left in the Super Bowl against New England and not being able to get it done. McNabb and the Eagles could not solve those Tony Dungy-molded defenses in Tampa Bay when it counted. But, after 11 years, I still think McNabb has taken the Eagles farther than they would have gotten if they drafted Ricky Williams instead.

20:00-25:00 – Hockey: The Great Outdoors, Islanders Play Well But Lose Ground
Great game at Fenway Park to close out the outdoor portion of the Boston hockey schedule, as Boston University held off a late charge by Boston College, 3-2. It was a great atmosphere, a fantastic event, and a once-in-a-lifetime experience. The hard-core fans were out and braved the cold.

Where will the NHL Winter Classic be next year? Minnesota is a possibility in the first year of Target Field in a game that could match up the North Stars and the Wild, but the smart money is on New York with a Capitals-Rangers game to give Alex Ovechkin the Crosby-level of New Year’s exposure.

Last week’s Sports Column talks about the future of the NHL Winter Classic.

The Islanders have played better, but their stock has fallen in the Atlantic Division because the Rangers and Flyers have played so much better.

25:00-38:00 – NFL Wild Card Weekend: Positional Ranking Results, More Jets-Bengals
Rushing offense and defense ruled the day, as the top-ranked teams in those categories all won their Wild Card games. The top three quarterbacks and kickers all lost. The two top-ranked coaches (Belichick, Reid) lost. Receivers were a mixed bag. Check the “Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition – Wild Card Weekend” blog for those picks.

Want proof we play in the golden era of passing? 7 of the 10 quarterback that threw for 4,000 yards qualified for the playoffs.

Cincinnati was ready for the Jets’ version of the Wildcat offense, as Brad Smith did not have any of the success he had in Week 17. The Jets did have players and coaches with experience of playing in Cincinnati once a year (Alan Faneca, Braylon Edwards, Rex Ryan). Coach Marvin Lewis challenged twice in the first quarter and lost both challenges. That really killed the Bengals, especially when, on replay, the plays did not look like they would be overturned. Also contributing to the Bengals demise was Shayne Graham’s two missed field goals.

The Jets have won four in a row on the road and the possibility is still alive for one more final farewell at Giants Stadium. But, the unthinkable has to happen: the bottom two seeds have to upset the top two seeds in the AFC. If you were to pick two areas of football to excel in this time of year, it would be running the ball and defense and these are the areas the Jets and Ravens are at their best. Weather would only play a part in one possible matchup for the rest of the playoffs and that would be if the Jets host the Ravens at Giants Stadium in two weeks.

38:00-40:00 – Cardinals let the Packers off the mat, but still win
Both Sunday games started similar with one team dominating early and putting some points on the board. In Baltimore’s case, the Ravens did not let the Patriots off the mat. In Arizona’s case, the Cardinals let the Packers come back into the game.

The Cardinals were up 14-0 very quickly, 17-0 after one quarter, and 24-10 at the half. Green Bay worked hard to come back with two TDs in the 3rd quarter and three more TDs in the 4th quarter to force overtime.

40:00-45:00 – Next Week’s NFL Playoff Schedule and Preview
DAL @ MIN – Dallas is looking hot and they go up against Minnesota next weekend, who got well against the Giants. Romo is playing well and Dallas is running the ball well. Minnesota defends well against the run, but not so much against the pass. Romo might be able to find his receivers down the field.

ARZ @ NO – The Saints host the Cardinals next weekend. Can you see a similar game? The Saints can throw it like no one else, but the Cardinals can counterpunch. The Saints defense was great early in the season, but not since Week 11, and they have lost three straight.

BAL @ IND – Baltimore’s biggest strength, running the ball, goes up against Indianapolis’s weak spot, defending the run. Anything can happen if Baltimore can run the ball on Indy.

NYJ @ SDG – The Chargers are the hottest team in the league with an 11-game winning streak. For the Jets, Darrelle Revis cannot cover everyone. The Chargers have to exploit mismatches with Antonio Gates and get the ball to the secondary receivers, which is something Cincinnati could not do this week. Gates has the big size advantage on the defensive backs and the linebackers are not quick enough and David Harris and Bart Scott are both banged up.

Check out the Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition – Divisional Championship Weekend blog that will be out on Saturday for my picks and rankings.

45:00-49:00 NFL: Around the League, Final Top Performers Records
Jim Mora was fired in Seattle after an 5-11 season and Pete Carroll is rumored to take over. Carroll seemed to want to coach college football when he was fired from New England and seemed to love his life at USC. Rumors are that there are NCAA investigations afoot at USC.
In Cleveland, Mike Holmgren is letting Eric Mangini have another go at it. Does he believe in Mangini?
What about a three-way deal of quarterbacks between Philadelphia, Chicago, and Washington? Deals of that magnitude never get done and the Eagles would not need a quarterback in return for McNabb.
In Buffalo, coaching rumors are floating around. Brian Schottenheimer makes sense for the Bills, but there is a lot of work to do in Buffalo. Is Ryan Fitzpatrick the answer? Is Trent Edwards the answer? Terrell Owens will probably not be back.
Peyton Manning won his 4th Most Valuable Player Award.

Top Performers for the Regular Season:
300-yard passers (67-37, .644)
100-yard rushers (82-34, .707)
100-yard receivers (103-60, .632)

49:00-56:00 - StatMan’s 1st Annual All-Surprise and All-Disappointment Teams, Final Pick Results
StatMan’s 1st Annual All-Surprise Team
QB Matt Schaub HOU
RB Ray Rice BAL
RB Jamaal Charles KCY
WR Miles Austin DAL
WR Sidney Rice MIN
FLEX Steve Smith NYG
TE Brent Celek PHL
K Jay Feely NYJ
D/ST Saints NO

StatMan’s 1st Annual All-Disappointment Team
QB Carson Palmer CIN
RB Matt Forte CHI
RB LaDainian Tomlinson SDG
WR Dwayne Bowe KCY
WR Roy Williams DAL
FLEX Marshawn Lynch BUF
TE John Carlson SEA
K Shayne Graham CIN
D/ST Bears CHI

For the Pick Results in the regular season and the fantasy leaders in the regular season, see the Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition – Wild Card Weekend blog.

56:00-63:00 – NHL Recap: Rangers sweep Bruins, Atlantic Division Winning, DP Is Back
The Bruins did not do well against the Rangers, losing 3-2 in Boston on Monday, and dropping a 3-1 decision in New York on Saturday.

The Rangers have played great lately. Michael Del Zotto got his first goal in 22 games on Saturday against Boston and Sean Avery has been very effective lately, especially against Dallas.

Every team in the Atlantic Division is winning. Philadelphia has now surpassed NHL .500 since Peter Laviolette took the reins (9-8-2). Last place in the Atlantic is in 10th place in the conference and the Islanders are only two points out of a playoff spot.

The Islanders lost another third-period lead, this time to Phoenix after the Isles went up 4-1, but the Islanders won in the sixth round of the shootout, 5-4. In that game, Phoenix were down a man for about 10 minutes because of some heady play by Dwayne Roloson. Ed Jovanovski was called for a major penalty towards the end of the first period and Phoenix coach Dave Tippett did not put a player in the box to start the second period. As the major penalty expired, there was no one to leave the box and you cannot bring a player off your bench to equalize the manpower on the ice. Roloson knew this and nullified two icings by playing the puck and kept the play moving.

Rick DiPietro is back to NHL action, losing on Friday to Dallas, 4-3. Martin Biron is the odd man out and will be traded soon. Detroit is only one point behind the Kings for 8th place in the Western Conference and they come to the Nassau Coliseum on Tuesday night. The Devils play the Rangers in the only game this week between local teams.

Check out the Fantasy Hockey Edition blog for the statistical review of Week 14 and the preview of Week 15, including our Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em recommendations.

63:00-67:00 – Close: Upcoming Schedule, Next Week’s Show Preview
Next Week
Next Sunday night (January 17th), Sports With The StatMan (#42) breaks down the Divisional Championship round. The Jets-Chargers game will just be wrapping up as we go to air, but we will talk about all the games. In hockey, the Devils visit the Garden to take on the Rangers on Tuesday. Will the Bengie Molina signing by the Mets finally happen? We’ll talk about it all on Sports With The StatMan.

Upcoming Schedule
Saturday: Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition – Divisional Weekend (blog)
Sunday morning: Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Hockey Edition – Week 16 (blog)
Sunday, 8-9pm ET: Sports With The StatMan: No. 42 (live show)

* All blogs will be available on our “secondary” blog, which is called “Random Musings from the StatMan” (http://gstatman.blogspot.com). You can listen to the show live at our show page (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan) or download the podcast, which is available 15 minutes after the show, either from the show page or from iTunes (search: Sports With The StatMan).

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:
Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
“Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com

Send your pro or fantasy questions or comments on the Show Page or the “Random Musings” blog, or you can send me a tweet. I’ll be sure to get back to you. Also, check the show page for times and schedules of our one-hour show and our Fantasy Football and Fantasy Hockey Editions.

GHT: Round 1 Matchups and Byes

ROUND 1 BYES
Here are the players that receive a bye in the first round, along with their ranking. The year in parentheses represents the single season in which they were imported into the Out of the Park Baseball X (OOTP X) game:

#1 – Babe Ruth (1921)
#2 – Ted Williams (1941)
#3 – Lou Gehrig (1931)
#4 – Ty Cobb (1911)
#5 – Rogers Hornsby (1922)
#6 – Honus Wagner (1905)
#7 – Joe DiMaggio (1937)
#8 – Jackie Robinson (1949)
#9 – Stan Musial (1948)
#10 – Jimmie Foxx (1932)
#11 – Willie Mays (1955)
#12 – Mel Ott (1929)
#13 – Hank Aaron (1959)
#14 – Mickey Mantle (1956)
#15 – Hank Greenberg (1938)
#16 – Duke Snider (1953)
#17 – Eddie Mathews (1953)
#18 – Carl Yastrzemski (1967)
#19 – Ernie Banks (1959)
#20 – Al Kaline (1955)
#21 – Frank Robinson (1962)
#22 – Joe Morgan (1976)
#23 – Roberto Clemente (1967)
#24 – Pete Rose (1969)
#25 – Rod Carew (1977)
#26 – Cal Ripken, Jr. (1991)
#27 – Wade Boggs (1987)
#28 – George Brett (1980)
#29 – Mike Schmidt (1980)
#30 – Albert Pujols (2003)
#31 – Kirby Puckett (1986)
#32 – Tony Gwynn (1997)

ROUND 1 MATCHUPS
The matchups for Round 1 of the 2010 Greatest Hitter Tournament are listed below. In parentheses, the single season in which they were imported into the OOTP X game is listed along with their playing style:
#33 George Sisler (1920, SPD/AVG) vs. #96 Andre Dawson (1987, PWR)
- Newly-minted Hall of Famer Andre Dawson takes on George Sisler, who was the single season hit king (257 hits) until Ichiro surpassed his record.

#34 Nap Lajoie (1901, AVG/PWR/SPD) vs. #95 Derek Jeter (1999, AVG)
- Nap Lajoie was the top player in the game at the turn of the century and Derek Jeter was at the top of his future Hall of Fame game at the end of last century.

#35 Joe Jackson (1911, AVG/SPD) vs. #94 Roberto Alomar (1999, SPD)
- “Shoeless Joe” was always a great hitter, but will always be remembered and possibly kept out of the Hall of Fame for the 1919 Black Sox scandal, while Roberto Alomar’s spitting incident has temporarily kept him out of the Hall.

#36 Tris Speaker (1920, AVG) vs. #93 Gary Carter (1982, PWR)
- Two players with different styles matchup here, as Tris Speaker and his .388 average takes on Gary Carter, who hit 29 HR as a catcher.

#37 Johnny Mize (1947, PWR) vs. #92 George Bell (1987, PWR)
- Johnny Mize and George Bell combined for 98 HR in these two seasons, 40 years apart. Both hitters also topped .300, 130 RBI, and 110 runs scored.

#38 Hack Wilson (1930, PWR/AVG) vs. #91 Keith Hernandez (1979, AVG)
- The all-time single season RBI king, Hack Wilson (191 RBI), plays one of the better clutch run producers of the 1980s in Keith Hernandez.

#39 Lefty O’Doul (1929, PWR/AVG) vs. #90 Willie McGee (1985, SPD/AVG)
- Lefty O’Doul had a great mix of power and average, but Willie McGee made the 1985 Cardinals go, mixing hitting (.353 AVG, 82 RBI) and speed (56 stolen bases).

#40 Eddie Collins (1914, AVG/SPD) vs. #89 Craig Biggio (1997, SPD)
- Eddie Collins and Craig Biggio were both fast second basemen, combining for 105 stolen bases, but played in completely different eras.

#41 Charlie Gehringer (1936, AVG) vs. #88 Rusty Staub (1969, PWR)
- Rusty Staub was the best player on an expansion team in frigid Montreal while Charlie Gehringer was at his best coming off a World Series victory in 1935.

#42 Ralph Kiner (1949, PWR) vs. #87 George Foster (1977, PWR)
- Ralph Kiner was in the middle of his run of seven straight years leading the National League in home runs (1946-52), while George Foster had the best single-season power year between 1965-1995 (52 HR).

#43 Ted Kluszewski (1954, PWR) vs. #86 Willie Stargell (1971, PWR)
- Both were big power hitters and though Stargell had more staying power, Kluszewski had the single best year. At least Stargell and his 1971 Pirates won the World Series.

#44 Al Simmons (1930, PWR/AVG) vs. #85 Lou Brock (1974, SPD)
- The best base-stealer in an era of base-stealers, Lou Brock set a Major League record with 118 stolen bases in 1974. Al Simmons was a different player, hitting for a sterling .381 average, smacked 36 HR and drove in 165 runs.

#45 Paul Waner (1927, AVG) vs. #84 Tim Raines (1983, SPD)
- Paul Waner, nicknamed “Big Poison”, only had 9 HR in 1927, but still won the MVP on the strength of a .380 average and 131 RBI. Tim Raines was good player, but his 90 stolen bases helped propel him to greatness.

#46 Joe Medwick (1937, PWR/AVG) vs. #83 Don Mattingly (1985, PWR)
- The most recent Triple Crown winner in the National League, Joe Medwick, goes up against a player who was as much of a triple threat in the 1980s as anyone, Don Mattingly, who was 3rd in average, 4th in HR, and 1st in RBI.

#47 Lou Boudreau (1948, AVG) vs. #82 Mike Greenwell (1988, PWR)
- Lou Boudreau and Mike Greenwell were similar players separated by 40 years, much like the Johnny Mize-George Bell matchup. Boudreau played and managed to a 1948 MVP while Greenwell was second to tarnished MVP Jose Canseco in 1988.

#48 Heinie Manush (1928, AVG) vs. #81 Dick Allen (1972, PWR)
- There are many differences between Heinie Manush (.378-13-108, 14 K) and Dick Allen (.308-37-113, 126 K), so this will be a study in cross-era and cross-discipline players and how the pitchers will handle each.

#49 Roy Campanella (1953, PWR) vs. #80 Reggie Jackson (1969, PWR)
- Two of the premier players at their positions of their era are matching up in this one. Roy Campanella was an eight-time All-Star as a catcher whose career was cut short by an automobile accident. Reggie Jackson was a 14-time All-Star and his 1969 season put him on the map.

#50 Tommy Davis (1962, PWR/AVG) vs. #79 Joe Torre (1971, AVG/PWR)
- Tommy Davis and Joe Torre put up amazing seasons for right-handed hitting players. Davis was MVP-worthy in 1962, leading the majors in average, hits, and RBI. Torre won the MVP in 1971, hitting 38 points higher than any other season and 66 points higher than his career average.

#51 Tony Oliva (1964, PWR) vs. #78 Gil Hodges (1954, PWR)
- Tony Oliva and Gil Hodges are not in the Hall of Fame and many think they both deserve to be. The winner of this matchup will add another achievement to his wonderful career, but will the Hall of Fame ever be in the cards for either of them?

#52 Harmon Killebrew (1969, PWR) vs. #77 Rocky Colavito (1961, PWR)
- In this matchup of similar players, Harmon Killebrew has the edge in ranking because of his career numbers. Rocky Colavito had his best season as a Tiger, though he is more synonymous with the Indians.

#53 Willie McCovey (1969, PWR) vs. #76 Zack Wheat (1925, AVG)
- Willie McCovey has the slugging advantage going into this series, but Zack Wheat hit for a much higher average points (.359 to .320) and produced 64 more hits (221-157).

#54 Billy Williams (1970, PWR) vs. #75 Norm Cash (1961, PWR/AVG)
- Billy Williams was a better player over his career, but Norm Cash’s unbelievable 1961 season (.361-41-132) despite his .271 career average. But, both players had very similar power seasons, as Williams was .322-42-129 in 1970.

#55 Jim Rice (1978, PWR) vs. #74 Roger Maris (1961, PWR)
- The Yankees-Red Sox rivalry continues, as two of the greatest single seasons by each franchise will be in action, as Jim Rice’s tour-de-force 1978 season (406 total bases) will face off against Roger Maris’s 61 home runs.

#56 Robin Yount (1982, AVG/PWR) vs. #73 Goose Goslin (1931, PWR)
- The career numbers of Robin Yount and Goose Goslin are not very different, with Yount amassing 3,142 hits and 251 HR over a 20-year career and Goslin putting together 2,735 hits and 248 HR over 17 years.

#57 Rickey Henderson (1990, SPD/PWR) vs. #72 Maury Wills (1962, SPD)
- Speed with be the name of the game between Rickey Henderson and Maury Wills. This matchup skips a generation, as Wills was the best runner in the 1960s and Henderson dominated the 1980s and 1990s.

#58 Tony Perez (1970, PWR) vs. #71 Harry Heilmann (1923, AVG)
- Two players who dominated their decade lock up in this matchup. Tony Perez was second in RBI in the 1970s with 954. Harry Heilmann won four American League batting crowns in the 1920s (1921, -23, -25, -27).

#59 Dave Winfield (1979, PWR) vs. #70 Bill Terry (1930, AVG/PWR)
- Dave Winfield may have the counting statistic of 3,110 hits, but Bill Terry is the only one of the two with 200 hits in a season and Terry had six seasons of 200 or more hits.

#60 Eddie Murray (1984, PWR) vs. #69 Frankie Frisch (1923, AVG/SPD)
- Two of the best switch-hitters of all-time are in this matchup. Eddie Murray reached 3,255 hits and 504 HR while Frankie Frisch had a .316 average and his 419 stolen bases was a record for switch-hitters until 1977.

#61 Ken Griffey, Jr. (1997, PWR) vs. #68 Al Rosen (1953, PWR/AVG)
- A tough draw for all-time great Ken Griffey, Jr, whose amazing 56 HR and 147 RBI season goes up against Al Rosen, who was a unanimous American League MVP in 1953, but retired three years later at the age of 32. Griffey has 630 HR and counting while Rosen finished with only 192.

#62 Paul Molitor (1993, AVG/PWR) vs. #67 Chuck Klein (1930, PWR/AVG)
- This matchup features players at opposite ends of their careers. Paul Molitor had 211 hits in a season in which he turned 37. Chuck Klein hit an other-worldly .386-40-170 at the age of 25.

#63 Ichiro Suzuki (2001, SPD/AVG) vs. #66 Earl Averill (1931, PWR/AVG)
- Ichiro was a “rookie” in 2001 and took home American League Rookie of the Year and MVP honors for the Seattle Mariners. Seattle-area native Earl Averill still has all-time Cleveland Indian records in total bases, RBI, runs scored, and triples.

#64 Frank Thomas (2000, PWR) vs. #65 Sam Crawford (1911, AVG/SPD)
- In this matchup, a 500 HR player goes up against a player who holds the all-time record for most inside-the-park HR in a season (12). Frank Thomas finished an 18-year career with 521 HR. Sam Crawford played in the dead-ball era but led the American League in RBI, extra base hits, slugging percentage, and total bases every year from 1905-1915.

ROUND 1 PITCHING STAFFS
Here are the pitchers that were selected to throw to this motley crew of hitters in Round 1:
Babe Ruth (1916) – 23-12, 1.75 ERA
- Ruth can only pitch in this round because this is the only round we know he will not face himself.

Wilbur Wood (1971) – 22-13, 1.91 ERA
- Wood had a great one-off season in 1971 for the White Sox. The knuckleballer might be a great reliever to provide a nice change-of-pace.

Dave McNally (1968) – 22-10, 1.95 ERA
- McNally was one of the four 20-game winners of the 1971 Orioles. But, the lefty had his best season three years earlier.

Dazzy Vance (1924) – 28-6, 2.16 ERA
- Home runs started flying out of the parks around baseball by 1924, but Vance’s numbers were better than anyone else, winning the pitcher’s Triple Crown and the MVP.

Sam McDowell (1965) – 17-11, 2.18 ERA
- 1965 was the only year McDowell lead the league in ERA and set a career-high with 325 strikeouts.

Frank Tanana (1976) – 19-10, 2.43 ERA
- Tanana set personal bests in the 1976 season in wins, ERA, and WHIP (0.988). His 1979 shoulder injury sapped him of his blazing fastball, but in his prime, he struck out almost a hitter an inning.

Curt Schilling (2001) – 22-6, 2.98 ERA
- Schilling was great in 2001, but his postseason showing (4-0, 1.12) directly led to a World Series victory and a co-MVP in the Series.

Randy Myers (1997) – 45 saves, 1.51 ERA
- One of the best left-handed closers in history, he scored his lowest ERA and second-highest save total in a career that netted 347 saves.

Joe Nathan (2006) – 36 saves, 1.58 ERA
- Nathan was 7-0 and finished fifth in the Cy Young Award voting in 2006 and the best season to-date for a player who has six straight 35-save seasons and counting.

Tom Henke (1995) – 36 saves, 1.82 ERA
- Henke was known as a Blue Jay, but his final Major League season, which was in a Cardinals uniform, was one of his best statistical seasons.

Duane Ward (1993) – 45 saves, 2.13 ERA
- Ward spent years in Tom Henke’s shadow, his one year as a true closer of the Blue Jays was a career signature.

Next post: Hopefully this weekend, the first pitch of Round 1.

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