Flying Off The Rails

The 2010 season for the New York Mets has been a rollercoaster.  The fans have been taken for a ride and I am not just talking about the sky-high ticket and concession prices.  The season started terribly as they started off 4-8 when they returned from a road trip to face the Chicago Cubs.  Enter Ike Davis.  Davis was a defensive whirling dervish early, as his patented flip into the Citi Field first-base dugout became commonplace.  The Mets were hot and catapulted themselves into first place before the end of April riding an eight-game winning streak.  The Phillies came into town as the calendar turned to May and embarrassed the Mets’ two hottest starters in Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana.  The Mets limped along for most of May until the final two games of the first Subway Series against the Yankees.  Two wins there and a series shutout against the Phillies and the Mets were up and running again.  The high lasted until late June, as the Mets carried the play by starting the month 13-2 and entering the last series of the month 17-6.  But, the last series of the month was the only series outside of the United States.  The series in San Juan against the Marlins would become the turning point of the entire year to this point.

The Mets salvaged the last game of the three-game set, but the artificial turf was held responsible for Jose Reyes’s oblique injury, which included him going on the Disabled List and breaking the continuity to the lineup the Mets had enjoyed since Davis debuted in April.  From that fateful series in San Juan to the All-Star Break, the Mets were 0-3-1 in series, only gaining a split of a four-game series at Washington.  After the Break, the Mets hit the West Coast.  Those trips typically undo the Mets and the trip just about undid the 2010 season.  In San Francisco, the Mets were stymied by their talented starters and lost three of four, winning the last game on Sunday in extra innings that was only in extra innings because of a bad “out” call at home plate in the home ninth.  The hitters suffered in San Francisco and the whole team busted in Phoenix.  Arizona swept the Mets and set the tone in the first game with a 13-2 spanking by a last-place team against a road-weary Met squad.  In Los Angeles, Jason Bay suffered a concussion and has not returned since the diagnosis.  Neither have the Mets after losing three of four at Chavez Ravine.  They are 5-7 since the trip and have only won one series since San Juan.

From the highest of the highs in June to the lowest of the lows in San Juan and the West Coast, the rollercoaster season has now officially gone off the rails.  The Mets were not buyers nor were they sellers at the Trading Deadline, which left them in limbo and minimized whatever impact this deadline could give them, either for this season if they wanted to make a playoff push or for future seasons by netting prospects for use in the future.  The team that was supposed to compete at least for the Wild Card this year has been reduced to playing out the string and the questions are already being posed about why this happened.  Some picked the Mets to be a .500 team.  I picked them to win the Wild Card with 89 wins, which was a few games better than most prognosticators.  I based my prediction on several factors:

• The acquisition of Jason Bay
• The rebirth of David Wright and Jose Reyes
• The maturation of Mike Pelfrey and Jonathon Niese

Jason Bay has been a disappointment in his first year.  Most free agents who come to New York need a year to get their feet wet.  Next year will be pivotal for Bay’s overall success in New York, but this year was a feeling out period for both the player and the fans.  David Wright has returned to his former self after psyching himself out of playing at the new Citi Field.  The poor production stayed with him on the road and in the field last year, and when you add a scary beaning by Matt Cain late last season, he had a lot to overcome.  Wright has come through valiantly this year.  Jose Reyes made a cameo last season and missed the first series of the year, but he has played well in May.  He has been streakier this year and his defense has hit a slump lately, but he is hardly the cause for the Mets’ overall struggles.

The real reason has been the pitching.  The problems have been the lack of execution by the staff and the lack of planning by General Manager Omar Minaya.  Mike Pelfrey started to be the number two pitcher he was slated to be last season and this season in April, but he started to teeter in May and fallen way off in June and July.  Since June 13, Pelfrey has had only one quality start in his next nine starts.  He is partly to blame for his rocky performance since May, but the problem really lies with Minaya.  You could look at Minaya’s inactivity to get an established top-of-the-rotation starter to slot behind Johan Santana in each of the last two offseasons and the last two trading deadlines as a challenge made to Pelfrey to mature before our eyes.  You could also look at the inaction as making the best of a bad situation.  But, there is no reason why the Mets have to be in a bad situation.  Minaya was the one who put the Mets in the bad situation.  The Mets have one of the highest payrolls in baseball and Minaya used $36 of that payroll over three years to sign Oliver Perez before last season.  Even at his best, he would never be considered a number two starter.  For what Perez has actually been, he deserves to pitch every fifth day in Triple-A Buffalo.

Jonathan Niese has done the opposite of Pelfrey, starting slowly and really coming on since a stint on the Disabled List in late May.  As of his most recent start on August 6^th, he was 6-3 since returning from the DL with 9 of 12 starts being a quality one and allowing more than three earned runs only twice in that span.  He has been a bright spot on the staff along with R.A. Dickey, but they are mid-rotation pitchers.  The Mets have watched the Phillies trade for Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt in the last 12 months while holding on to their top prospect, Dominic Brown.  The Mets may not have had the minor league talent to make those deals, or maybe the Mets wanted to hold on to their talent, but you could say the Mets were two arms away from factoring in this year’s pennant race: an established starter and an eighth-inning reliever.  Those arms did not have to be attained this past July.  The seeds for this failure were sown a year and a half ago.  By now, the pitcher would have been in his second season in New York, acclimated to the media, the new ballpark, and the demanding fans.  

The time has already passed for this season’s team.  Who knows if Ike Davis, Jonathon Niese, Ruben Tejada, Jenrry Mejia, Fernando Martinez, or Josh Thole will have a big impact on the big-league club or will be used as trading chips down the line, but the Mets gave up their 2010 season because they are betting on their upside.

Stay or Go: 2010 MLB Trading Deadline

On the Sports With The StatMan show before the MLB Trading Deadline (#69, 7/23/10), we played “Stay or Go” and predicted which players rumored in trade talks would stay with their clubs or change teams at the deadline. A lot of big names were rumored to be traded and we had our share of deals made, especially right up against the deadline, but I expected more movement of big names. Overall, I was 10-4 on my predictions.

Here is the list we discussed on the show. First, the players I thought would STAY with their current teams:

• Roy Oswalt: I predicted he would STAY with the Astros because I thought the asking price was too high. (GO: He was traded to the Phillies in the biggest deal of deadline week.)
• Dan Haren: I predicted he would STAY with the Diamondbacks because of his no-trade clause including several contending teams. (GO: The Angels traded for Haren, which may not have helped their pennant hopes in the end since they were playing catch-up before the Haren deal was consummated.)
• Adam Dunn: At last check before the show, he was trying to work out a long-term deal with the Nationals. I thought he would STAY and be part of the solution in Washington. (STAY: Dunn is still playing for Washington and they are still working on that deal.)
• Jayson Werth: This was a tough one, as you could see the Phillies holding on to him to make a run at the NL East or ship him out to lure some more pitching. That being said, I thought he would STAY, mainly because of the bat needed in the lineup with Chase Utley out until late August. (STAY: They couldn’t part with a middle of the order bat with Utley (and now Ryan Howard) out of the lineup).
• Fausto Carmona: I was betting on upside when I said he would STAY with the Indians, as Carmona does have significant upside. (STAY: Maybe the Indians realized they could not get anyone back with more upside than Carmona?)
• Dan Uggla: He has a big power bat and I thought he would STAY with the Marlins because of the new stadium that is a season and a half away. (STAY: The Marlins kept their dynamite middle infield of Uggla and shortstop Hanley Ramirez intact.)
• Corey Hart: The Brewers were asking for too much for someone who was a part-time player when the season started. His values were pushed to the extremes, so I thought he would STAY. (STAY: His power has leveled off, but he has been a more complete player in the last couple of months.)
• Brett Myers: FOX Sports reported the Astros would have to be “overwhelmed” to trade Myers. The Astros like to hang on to their guys, so I predicted he would STAY. (STAY: Myers and the Astros are talking long-term deal.)

Now, for the players I thought would GO on to a different team:

• Ted Lilly: I thought he would GO from the Cubs to a contending team. He was able to block a trade to 10 teams, so conceivably, the Cubs only had 20 teams to work with. (GO: He was traded to one of those 20 other teams, the Dodgers.)
• Jake Westbrook: He was a veteran pitcher on a bad team, which is perfect for a possible move. I thought he would GO from the Indians. (GO: The Cardinals came calling and Westbrook rounds out the pitching staff nicely. He went in a three-team deal with Cardinal OF Ryan Ludwick going to San Diego.)
• Mike Lowell: He was not getting playing time, so I predicted him to GO from the Red Sox. Detroit was looking for a third baseman after the injury to Brandon Inge. (STAY: Good thing he stayed. Kevin Youkilis is gone for the year and Lowell will get most of the playing time at first.)
• Jeff Francoeur: From power source to a platoon player, Francoeur was my pick to GO from the Mets after Carlos Beltran returned to the lineup. (STAY: Jason Bay was injured in Los Angeles and has not returned to date. He may miss the rest of the season. In the meantime, Francoeur is getting regular at-bats again, but he might still get moved in August if he clears waivers to make room for young outfielder Fernando Martinez.)
• Octavio Dotel: Most contenders need bullpen help and Dotel was the best closer on a bad team this year. These guys normally get moved, so I picked him to GO from the Pirates. (GO: The Dodgers did this last year with George Sherrill, who has faded into fantasy oblivion. The same now applies to Dotel.)
• Kerry Wood: I thought he would GO from Cleveland by the end of July, not even waiting for a possible August deal that could happen since he would have most likely slipped through waivers. (GO: The Yankees turned Wood from a closer to a possible 8th-inning guy, which would turn Joba Chamberlain to a spare part.)

The Islander Fan’s View of the Kovalchuk Saga

Islander fans were given false hope when a simple inquiry by General Manager Garth Snow was taken to mean the Islanders were involved in the bidding for Ilya Kovalchuk’s services. An Atlanta Thrasher for all but the last 27 regular season games and first playoff round last year, he was a New Jersey Devil until his free agency started on July 1st. Kovalchuk’s demands were made plain for any General Manager to see. He wanted $100 million. As with a lot of big name free agents in this salary cap age, the teams that would be willing to spend it did not have the cap room and the teams that had the cap room would not spend so much money on one player.

The players in the market for Kovalchuk were believable except for the Islanders. The Devils were in the running to sign him long-term and had the advantage of seeing him fit in well with the team, scoring 27 points in those 27 games and he was one of the few players that had a good playoff series in the Devils’ 5-game loss to the Flyers in the first round. The Los Angeles Kings were also very interested in Kovalchuk as the Kings are ready to move from a lower-level playoff team to an elite team in the Western Conference. But, that kind of money was too rich for the Kings under the salary cap. Enter the Islanders. They have nothing but cap room, even when you consider some of the youth coming due for their next contracts over the next couple of years. The Islanders could easily afford Kovalchuk in a 10-year/$100 million type of deal. But, this would have been about as out-of-character as Garth Snow would have been in his entire Islanders’ management tenure to date.

Instead of channeling his inner Mike Milbury, Snow was patient and only “inquired”. But, the speculation started and Islander fans hopped right on the bandwagon. Did the Islander fans feel used? Maybe. Did they think they honestly had a chance? Yes. Owner Charles Wang has shown a propensity for making the unthinkable deal. Alexei Yashin was signed to a 10-year deal before the 2001-02 season. Rick DiPietro signed a “lifetime” 15-year contract before the 2006-07 season. The Yashin experiment ended in a buyout the Islanders are still paying to Yashin. DiPietro’s deal was the first of the “lifetime” contracts to franchise players. Since the deal was signed, it looked like a sound deal for the Islanders, but several injuries later, the deal has been laughable as the Isles continue to wait for DiPietro to get healthy.

While the fans may have thought Snow or the media toyed with their emotions, it was probably a good thing the Islanders did not reel him in. While Kovalchuk would have fit within the cap, he did not fit what the Islanders were trying to do, which is to build from within and grow together. Kovalchuk would have pushed the fast-forward button on the rebuild, which is not a bad thing. But, Coach Scott Gordon’s rules certainly would have had to have been different for Kovalchuk. With one player so far above the others in pay and NHL accomplishment, the player would have his own rules.

After a long, drawn-out process of courting, offers, pulled offers, and counteroffers, the Devils managed to sign Kovalchuk to a landmark 17-year/$102 million deal. But, even before the press coverage to announce the signing, the NHL was in touch with the Devils, letting them know they would fight the validity of the deal. Now, it is before an arbitrator to make a decision on whether the contract will stand. The decision is due by the end of the day on Monday. It is just as well the Devils or another team gets Kovalchuk. The biggest issue for Islander fans over the next 17 (or fewer) years is not that he is not an Islander, but that the Isles will face Kovalchuk six times a season for the next several years.

So, how should you root for the arbitration decision if you are Islander fan? Hope the arbitrator overturns the decision and declares Kovalchuk a free agent. Then, hope Kovalchuk and the Kings can figure out a way to work things out quickly before a team who is willing to pay Kovalchuk’s asking price, somehow clears up enough cap room to sign him. It would be tough, but the Rangers could always try to move salary and sign him. Having Kovalchuk inside the division would be the biggest problem, whether it is with the Devils or the Rangers.

2010 NHL Amateur Draft: First Round Predictions

We talked about the first 10 picks on Sports With The StatMan (#65). The only three local teams with picks in the first round will select in the Top 10.

My guess is that Taylor Hall will go #1 to Edmonton, leaving Tyler Seguin for Boston at #2. The Islanders could use a big defenseman and I am predicting 6'4" Erik Gudbranson to be available at #5. The electric "El Nino", Nino Niederreiter would be great on Broadway at #10 if the Rangers can pick him there. Here are the rest of my predictions for the first round:

2010 NHL Amateur Draft: StatMan's 1st Round Predictions
Pick Prediction Current team
   1 LW Taylor Hall, Windsor Edmonton Oilers
   2 C Tyler Seguin, Plymouth Boston Bruins (from Toronto)
   3 D Cam Fowler, Windsor Florida Panthers
   4 C Mikael Granlund, Finland Columbus Blue Jackets
   5 D Erik Gudbranson, Kingston New York Islanders
   6 RW Brett Connolly, Prince George Tampa Bay Lightning
   7 D Brandon Gormley, Moncton Carolina Hurricanes
   8 C Alexander Burmistrov, Barrie Atlanta Thrashers
   9 D Derek Forbort, USA U-18 Minnesota Wild
  10 RW Nino Niederreiter, Portland New York Rangers
  11 G Jack Campbell, USHL Dallas Stars
  12 C Nick Bjugstad, USHS Anaheim Ducks
  13 C Ryan Johansen, Portland Phoenix Coyotes (from Calgary)
  14 C Emerson Etem, Medicine Hat St. Louis Blues
  15 D Mark Pysyk, Edmonton Florida Panthers (from Boston)
  16 RW Vladimir Tarasenko, Novosibirsk Ottawa Senators
  17 C Jeffrey Skinner, Kitchener Colorado Avalanche
  18 RW Austin Watson, Peterborough Nashville Predators
  19 D Dylan McIlrath, Moose Jaw Los Angeles Kings
  20 D Jarren Tinordi, US NTDP Pittsburgh Penguins
  21 C Riley Sheahan, Notre Dame Detroit Red Wings
  22 G Calvin Pickard, Seattle Phoenix Coyotes
  23 C John McFarland, Sudbury Buffalo Sabres
  24 LW Quinton Howden, Moose Jaw Chicago Blackhawks (from New Jersey via Atlanta)
  25 D Alex Petrovic, Red Deer Vancouver Canucks
  26 C Evgeny Kuznetsov, Chelyabinsk Washington Capitals
  27 C Tyler Pitlick, Minnesota St-Mankato Montreal Canadiens
  28 C Brock Nelson, USHS San Jose Sharks
  29 RW Beau Bennett, Penticton Anaheim Ducks (from Philadelphia)
  30 D Jon Merrill, US NTDP Chicago Blackhawks

UPDATE (6/26, 9am): After the first two picks, the draft board was thrown out the window.  Picks 3-10 were a toss-up. For the locals, Seguin went #2 to the Bruins as expected, but the Islanders selected Nino Niederreiter at #5 and the Rangers took Dylan McIlrath at #10.  I thought the big defenseman Erik Gudbranson would be available at #5, but he went to Florida at #3.  I predicted Niederreiter to be around for the Rangers to select him at #10, but the Islanders pounced on "El Nino".  

The Rangers took the tough defenseman, as Glen Sather and company surprised everyone by taking a tough defenseman in McIlrath who had 16 fighting majors for Moose Jaw last season, more than double anyone else in major junior hockey last year.  

If you thought Niederreiter went early at #5, you may be right.  He might have been available at #7 or #8.  If you thought McIlrath went early at #10, I know you are right.  McIlrath was ranked #26 by the Hockey News and predicted to maybe sneak into the first round.  The Rangers were looking for a certain type of player and McIlrath fits the bill for a defensive corps that needs some toughness.  The Islanders needed scoring, as they have some defensive prospects coming up, so Niederreiter's style and flash should help the Islanders move forward.

The Islanders also traded both second-round picks to the Blackhawks to capture the #30 pick, which closed the day of drafting in Los Angeles.  Brock Nelson went to the Isles with that selection.  He put up monster numbers in Minnesota at the high-school level, but he will be tested next season at the University of North Dakota.

Here is the full list of first round picks from Friday night.

I did manage to get nine out of 30 picks on the nose.  They were:
Pick Player NHL Team

   1 LW Taylor Hall, Windsor Edmonton Oilers

   2 C Tyler Seguin, Plymouth Boston Bruins (from Toronto)

   6 RW Brett Connolly, Prince George Tampa Bay Lightning

   8 C Alexander Burmistrov, Barrie Atlanta Thrashers

  11 G Jack Campbell, USHL Dallas Stars
  16 RW Vladimir Tarasenko, Novosibirsk St. Louis Blues

  18 RW Austin Watson, Peterborough Nashville Predators

  21 C Riley Sheahan, Notre Dame Detroit Red Wings

  26 C Evgeny Kuznetsov, Chelyabinsk Washington Capitals

Join me on the next Sports With The StatMan (#66), as we break down the NHL Amateur Draft for the locals and get ready for the free agency frenzy in the NHL on July 1st.

Opinion: Ortiz should start planning exit strategy

There are a lot of players in every sport that hang on too long.  Some guys try to squeeze every at bat, inning, goal, touchdown, and -- most of all -- dollar -- out of their big-league career.  I could not say I would not do the same if I could.  But, if David Ortiz wants to keep his legend intact with the Boston Red Sox, this should be his last year in a Red Sox uniform.

Recent failures may never tarnish his golden moments, the ones that will live and thrive in the hearts of Red Sox Nation forever.  But, his early-season struggles of the past two years have taken some of the starch out of Ortiz and how he has been received by the fans and the media.

He clearly does not want to be benched or substituted for Mike Lowell or anyone else.  He does not appreciate the media writing that he is washed up.  But, the Boston that Ortiz knows is not the Boston of earlier generations.  This media corps has seen a lot of Red Sox success.  It was not too long ago that the Boston writers would not have given this much of a leash to someone like Ortiz.  But, Ortiz is a conquering hero and someone who deserves months or even seasons to get it right.  That was last season.

This year, Ortiz had a similar frigid start to the season, and the writers are at his throat.  The fans have followed a little more cautiously.  How much longer can the Boston media coexist with Ortiz?  For all of his successes, Boston writers will state he has not been the same since Manny Ramirez was traded.  It is hard to argue that point.  Jason Bay and Victor Martinez have not provided the protection that Ramirez once provided Big Papi.

The best should leave on their own terms.  Leaving at the top of one’s game rarely occurs.  For every Barry Sanders leaving the Lions and Michael Jordan leaving the Bulls the first time, there are countless has-beens who should have been enjoying retirement or at least escaped from the city from which they are eternally attached before they had to leave. 

It is already too late for Ortiz to leave with all of his legend intact.  The second one of a dynamite duo rarely does.  Ramirez left first and he basically forced his way out of town, but the fans have to look lovingly at Ramirez from afar, wishing he was still hitting in the middle of the Red Sox lineup.  Ortiz gets what is left behind and has not been able to recapture the same magic, personally or as a team, since Ramirez left.

Before it gets too much worse, Ortiz should start planning his exit strategy.  Maybe Ortiz can have a solid three-quarters of the season and leave on a high note.  If he muddles around .200 for the rest of the year, the decision will be made for him.

Sports With The StatMan #59: Show Notes

Timeline
00:00-25:00 – Flyers come back from 3-0 in series and in Game 7 to stun Bruins
25:00-33:00 - Montreal slays another giant in the playoffs, Flyers-Montreal preview
33:00-38:00 - Chicago owns Canucks in Vancouver
38:00-46:30 - San Jose getting tougher, San Jose-Chicago preview, Predictions
46:30-55:00 - Yankees facing the best of the AL Central
55:00-58:30 - My trip to Target Field
58:30-64:00 - Mets facing divisional foes
64:00-70:45 - Red Sox: Beckett issues, Ortiz heating up
70:45-75:00 - Phillies: Injury news, Manuel talks about sign-stealing
75:00-81:00 - Fantasy Minute
81:00-82:30 - Final Note

Main Points
00:00-25:00 – Flyers come back from 3-0 in series and in Game 7 to stun Bruins

• How big of a loss was this in Boston sports history?
• Players returning from injury in Simon Gagne and Michael Leighton made the difference in the series
• Gagne gave the Flyers the fuel to push them over the top
• Flyers coach Peter Laviolette is playing everything just right, evidenced by the timeout called down 3-0 in Game 7, maneuvering around goaltending injuries
• The only way the Flyers could get home ice is this very matchup (#7 Flyers vs. #8 Montreal)
• What will change for the Bruins before next season?
• What happens now to the psyche of the team, especially young goaltender Tuukka Rask? If you remember, Brian Boucher was an up-and-coming goaltender for the Flyers with some playoff success before blowing a 3-1 series lead against the Devils in 2000 stunted his growth.

25:00-33:00 - Montreal slays another giant in the playoffs, Flyers-Montreal preview

• Jaroslav Halak carried the Habs against Washington in the first round, but it was a team effort in Game 7 at Pittsburgh (W, 5-2)
• Hal Gill and Josh Gorges are the defensive tandem getting the attention for Montreal in the playoffs. Gill was with Pittsburgh last year and has been called on to shut down the likes of Ovechkin and the big guns on Pittsburgh.
• Philadelphia loves to score goals on chaotic goal-mouth scrambles. It will be up to Gill and Gorges, along with the rest of the Montreal defense, to clear the crease and make sure Halak can see Flyer shots.
• Cinderella teams that ride a hot goaltender have the tendency to turn into a pumpkin in the Conference Final
• PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA in 7

33:00-38:00 - Chicago owns Canucks in Vancouver

• Chicago was the only home team to win in this series as they won Game 2
• Chicago scored 12 goals in Games 3 and 4 and won both games in Vancouver
• Roberto Luongo has failed against Chicago as he has tried to build a reputation of a good playoff goaltender
• Chicago is in the Western/Campbell Conference Final in consecutive years for the first time since 1989-90

38:00-46:30 - San Jose getting tougher, San Jose-Chicago preview, Predictions

• Marleau and Thornton have played well in these playoffs
• San Jose shed their playoff failure label after handling defending Western Conference champs (Detroit) in five games
• The kids are still alright in Chicago
• PREDICTION: CHICAGO in 7
• Through the Second Round: 7-5 in Playoffs, 2 exact hits (winner and games)

46:30-55:00 - Yankees facing the best of the AL Central

• Phil Hughes is pitching like he belongs in the Big Three of the Yankee starting rotation
• Hughes’ inning count is rising quickly, but he is a lot more economical than Joba Chamberlain was as a starter
• Alex Rodriguez hit a grand slam to pass Frank Robinson for 7th all-time in HR (587); the grand slam tied him with Eddie Murray for 3rd in GSHR with 19 (Lou Gehrig 23, Manny Ramirez 21)
• Will the next generation of kids remember and be able to recite the home run career leaders? Will kids remember 762 like they remembered 755 and 714? Will it take a chase of Bonds for the top spot to ingrain 762 in our heads or have steroids taken the bloom off the rose forever?

55:00-58:30 - My trip to Target Field

• Early returns on how the ballpark is playing: ball is carrying down the lines, not in the alleys or straight away center
• Champions Club has all of the amenities, but only one bathroom

58:30-64:00 - Mets facing divisional foes

• The great comeback game against Washington, in which the Mets scored 6 runs in the 8th, was the only win of the week for the Mets.
• Ike Davis must have patented his foul pop catch and subsequent dugout flip. He has done this three times now and, New York, those things get candy bars named after you.
• The time has come to take Oliver Perez out of the rotation. In his last two starts, he has allowed 21 baserunners and recorded only 20 outs.

64:00-70:45 - Red Sox: Beckett issues, Ortiz heating up

• Daisuke Matsuzaka looked like the Dice-K of old using his fastball in his last start, striking out 8 of 9 Blue Jays on fastball
• Josh Beckett has a back issue and will skip his turn this week. He is scheduled to go Tuesday against the Yankees. Is his back an issue or did they give him some time off to figure things out?
• Even though the Red Sox have Jon Lester and John Lackey, they need a healthy and effective Beckett to win
• David Ortiz is starting to hit for power, hitting two against Detroit on Friday night. Since hitting .143 in April, he has four multi-hit games since then to raise his average to .213. Ortiz had his 34th multi-HR game on Friday, which is third in Sox history (Ted Williams 37, Jim Rice 35). Ortiz is a Red Sox all-timer because of his playoff performance, but he is starting to get those longevity statistics as well, even though he is hanging on.
• Manager Terry Francona will not commit to returning Ortiz as the everyday DH. Mike Lowell (.269-1-9) has gotten very little playing time. Adrian Beltre is still entrenched at 3B. Beltre is hitting .311, but he is not hitting for power.

70:45-75:00 - Phillies: Injury news, Manuel talks about sign-stealing

• Brad Lidge may have some elbow issues, which could be a big problem because with Ryan Madson on the DL and J.C. Romero best in a setup role, who would close games?
• Jimmy Rollins started his rehab today and could return for next week’s (May 17-23) homestand
• Manager Charlie Manuel responded to the Rockies accusing the Phillies of stealing signs at home. Manuel asked how the Mets play so well at home and said the Mets should be checked for stealing signs. The only thing missing from the Mets-Phillies rivalry is a full-out bench-clearing brawl. Eventually, the off-the-field stuff will probably escalate to on-the-field actions.
• MetsBanter.com tells you what they really think of Charlie Manuel

75:00-81:00 - Fantasy Minute

• Last 7 Days (week ending Friday, May 14th)
• Hitters: 1. Ichiro Suzuki SEA 42 FPTS*, 2. Mark Teixeira NYY 36, 3. Hunter Pence HOU 34, 4. Casey McGehee MIL 33, 5. Alex Rodriguez NYY 32
• Pitchers: 1. Dallas Braden OAK 54 FPTS* (perfect game), T-2. Johnny Cueto CIN 47 (1-hitter), T-2. Joe Saunders LAA 47, T-4. Jeremy Guthrie BAL 46, T-4. Mat Latos SDG 46 (1-hitter)
• Season-To-Date (through Friday, May 14th)
• Hitters: 1. Andre Ethier LAD 154 FPTS* (overtakes Braun for the season lead), 2. Ryan Braun MIL 150, 3. Miguel Cabrera DET 138, 4. Vernon Wells TOR 134, T-5. Evan Longoria TBY 130, T-5. Justin Morneau MIN 130
• Pitchers: 1. Roy Halladay PHL 201 FPTS* (1 more start than rest of starters in Top 5), 2. Ubaldo Jimenez COL 182, 3. Tim Lincecum SFO 176, 4. Adam Wainwright STL 159, 5. Matt Capps WSH 158 (only reliever in Top 5)

81:00-82:30 - Final Note

• Dallas Braden is still talking about Alex Rodriguez. Braden’s 15 minutes of fame just got extended with a perfect game last week.
• Mark your calendars: the Athletics have two more series with the Yankees this season. The next time they meet is a three-game set in Oakland (July 5-7) and they also have a four-game series at Yankee Stadium (August 30-September 2). There may be some fireworks.

Next Week
We will return to our regular spot on Wednesday night at 9pm Eastern time. On the show (#60), the Flyers continue their charge toward the Stanley Cup. We’ll talk Conference Finals in the NHL. We will talk baseball, with the mini two-game series between the Yankees and Red Sox over with and it is Oliver Perez’s night to start, so we will see if Perez is still in the rotation. We will also preview Interleague play 2010 and see if the American League will dominate yet again. All of this and more on Sports With The StatMan.

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• Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
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• Wednesday, May 19th, 9pm ET - Sports With The StatMan #60
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2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Conference Final Predictions

CONFERENCE SEMIFINAL (2nd Round) RESULTS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#8 Montreal defeats #4 Pittsburgh, 4 games to 3
The defending Stanley Cup Champions did not get out of the second round, as the Penguins dropped Game Seven at home.  Montreal got through Washington on the wings of a 3-1 comeback and the goaltending of Jaroslav Halak.  But, Montreal won a second Game Seven on the road because of more than just goaltending.  A 4-0 lead early in the second period made the final game anti-climactic.

#7 Philadelphia defeats #6 Boston, 4 games to 3
It was a tale of two series.  The Bruins had a 3-0 lead and held all of the cards.  The Flyers' Simon Gagne came back from injury in Game 4 and finished the series with four goals in the last four games of the series, including two game-winners.  Brian Boucher's luck was about to run out, losing the first three games before winning Game Four and was injured in Game Five.  Michael Leighton came off the bench, back from injury, and carried the Flyers in goal the rest of the series, making history along the way.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 San Jose defeats #5 Detroit, 4 games to 1
San Jose has shed their labels of playoff failures after this series, making it to the Conference Finals and they got there with their stars being stars.  Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau had great series and Joe Pavelski continued his big play in the second season.  Detroit was tired after a seven-game series win over Phoenix, but San Jose was rested and ready to go.  The Sharks built a 3-0 lead and won in five.

#2 Chicago defeats #3 Vancouver, 4 games to 2
Chicago owns Roberto Luongo, especially in Vancouver.  In the Conference Semifinals, Chicago has now defeated Vancouver in two straight playoffs, making it to consecutive Conference Finals for the first time since 1989-90.  Chicago is young and Vancouver's defense could not keep up.  The beat goes on in Vancouver with yet another playoff loss, but Chicago's renaissance continues.

CONFERENCE FINAL (3rd Round) PREDICTIONS
EASTERN CONFERENCE: #7 Philadelphia vs. #8 Montreal - PHILADELPHIA in 7 games
Flyer fans were dejected after being down 3-0 to the Bruins.  They were skeptical after wins in Game Four and Game Five.  After a Game Six win at home, the city was captivated.  Now, after doing the very, very improbable, the city is electric.  Welcome to the Conference Finals, which open Sunday in Philadelphia.  Montreal has played the maximum amount of games in both playoff series so far, so I think this will go the distance.  Montreal has won two Game Seven's on the road, but Philadelphia has the electricity of its fans and its city behind them.  Flyers in seven.

WESTERN CONFERENCE: #1 San Jose vs. #2 Chicago - CHICAGO in 7 games
Chicago has the longest drought of any team left in these playoffs.  A loss to San Jose would make it 50 years, but the Blackhawks are on their way back to prominence.  Despite their cap troubles, the time is now for Chicago.  Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, and Brent Seabrook are the stars, but Antti Niemi has played better than expected in the first two rounds.  Both teams are running on all cylinders, but there is magic in Chicago.  I am picking the series to go the full seven games and for Chicago to win the deciding game on the road.  Blackhawks in seven.

Join me on Sports With The StatMan (#60) this Wednesday night at 9pm ET.  For the full wrap on the Conference Semifinal round, listen to last week's show on the show page (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan).