Week 3 Fantasy Football Primer

We are debuting a new weekly blog post for you: the Fantasy Football Primer.  Between this and the post for the weekly NFL picks, this gives you the detail we could not possibly give you on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Sports With The StatMan (Saturdays, 11am ET on BlogTalkRadio).

Ahead are our positional rankings for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, kicker, and defense/special teams positions.  How is this different than any other prognostication or, for lack of a better term, “guess”?  We break them down into tiers.  We give you a projected amount of points.  Also, for a few of these players, we give a little more information.  Some we talk about on the show, some we do not.

A note on the tiers: if you are in a 10-team league and play two running backs, if you have two tailbacks listed here in the top 20, you are in good shape.  If you have three running backs and you play with a “flex” position, you may want to consider playing your third solid running back at “flex”.  If you see a free agent in the top 20, grab him and don’t look back.

POSITIONAL RANKINGS
QUARTERBACKS
TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 20+ pts)
1. Drew Brees NO (vs KCY): 29.32 projected points
2. Aaron Rodgers GBY (at SEA): 24.83 ppts
3. Matthew Stafford DET (at TEN): 24.16 ppts
4. Eli Manning NYG (at CAR): 22.83 ppts (already played, 17 actual points)
5. Tom Brady NE (at BAL): 21.10 ppts

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 18-20 pts)
6. Tony Romo DAL (vs TBY): 19.96 ppts (at home against a team that gave up 500+ yards to Eli Manning last week)
7. Philip Rivers SDG (vs ATL): 19.71 ppts
8. Cam Newton CAR (vs NYG): 18.94 ppts (already played, 9 actual points)
9. Michael Vick PHL (at ARZ): 18.77 ppts (one weapon (Maclin) is out, so look for his running abilities to be on display)
10. Matt Ryan ATL (at SDG): 18.67 ppts
11. Robert Griffin III WSH (vs CIN): 18.00 ppts (if Brandon Weeden can play well against this defense, think of what Griffin can do)

TIER 3 (“MATCHUP STARTS”: Projected Points – 15-18 pts)
12. Jay Cutler CHI (vs STL): 17.66 ppts (I think he bounces back here after rock bottom performance last week against the Packers)
13. Matt Schaub HOU (at DEN): 17.34 ppts
14. Carson Palmer OAK (vs PIT): 16.38 ppts (Palmer threw for 373 yards at Miami last week)
15. Alex Smith SFO (at MIN): 16.09 ppts
16. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF (at CLE): 16.05 ppts

TIER 4 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – 12-15 pts)
17. Andy Dalton CIN (at WSH): 14.25 ppts
18. Matt Cassel KCY (at NO): 13.28 ppts (the Saints defense have been victimized so far)
19. Ben Roethlisberger PIT (at OAK): 13.04 ppts
20. Mark Sanchez NYJ (at MIA): 12.78 ppts (for the Jets to win, Sanchez has to be a big part of it)
21. Josh Freeman TBY (at DAL): 12.36 ppts
22. Joe Flacco BAL (vs NE): 12.08 ppts (you can throw on the Patriots, but I don’t think he’ll have to)

TIER 5 (“DESPERATE STARTS”: Projected Points – <12 pts)
23. Brandon Weeden CLE (vs BUF): 11.30 ppts
24. Ryan Tannehill MIA (vs NYJ): 9.55 ppts
25. Andrew Luck IND (vs JAX): 9.39 ppts
26. Peyton Manning DEN (vs HOU): 9.14 ppts (the Texans have been murder against opposing quarterbacks so far)
27. Jake Locker TEN (vs DET): 8.76 ppts
28. Russell Wilson SEA (vs GBY): 8.34 ppts
29. Sam Bradford STL (at CHI): 8.34 ppts
30. Blaine Gabbert JAX (at IND): 8.23 ppts 

RUNNING BACKS
TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 13+ pts)
1. Ray Rice BAL (vs NE): 19.58 ppts
2. Arian Foster HOU (at DEN): 15.88 ppts
3. Andre Brown NYG (at CAR): 15.00 ppts (already played, 20 actual points)
4. Trent Richardson CLE (vs BUF): 14.25 ppts (Richardson had a rushing and receiving score in Week 2, look for his success to continue)
5. Reggie Bush MIA (vs NYJ): 13.89 ppts (Bush is second in the NFL in rushing and he is the only way the Dolphins can beat the Jets)
6. Maurice Jones-Drew JAX (at IND): 13.68 ppts

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 10 pts)
7. Alfred Morris WSH (vs CIN): 12.83 ppts (look for a bounce-back week from Morris against the Bengals, who have allowed 25.5 points per week on RBs)
8. Michael Turner ATL (at SDG): 12.21 ppts (scored 31 fantasy points in a game against San Diego last year)
9. C.J. Spiller BUF (at CLE): 11.28 ppts
10. Marshawn Lynch SEA (vs GBY): 11.17 ppts
11. Doug Martin TBY (at DAL): 10.94 ppts
12. Darren Sproles NO (vs KCY): 10.77 ppts
13. LeSean McCoy PHL (at ARZ): 10.58 ppts (the Eagles will lean heavily on McCoy with Maclin out and Jackson questionable)
14. Willis McGahee DEN (vs HOU): 10.48 ppts

TIER 3 (“MATCHUP STARTS”: Projected Points – 7-10 pts)
15. Kevin Smith DET (at TEN): 9.41 ppts
16. Adrian Peterson MIN (vs SFO): 8.55 ppts (Peterson might get a few points catching the ball because the 49ers run defense is stout)
17. Ryan Mathews SDG (vs ATL): 8.52 ppts (Jackie Battle played well in Mathews’ place, but the Chargers will try to control the clock with Mathews)
18. Chris Johnson TEN (vs DET): 8.48 ppts
19. Donald Brown IND (vs JAX): 8.38 ppts
20. Steven Jackson STL (at CHI): 7.72 ppts (if he plays, he’ll get his yards, but he may be hampered by his groin injury)
21. Jamaal Charles KCY (at NO): 7.63 ppts
22. DeAngelo Williams CAR (vs NYG): 7.19 ppts (already played, 7 actual points)
23. Shonn Greene NYJ (at MIA): 7.16 ppts
24. Darren McFadden OAK (vs PIT): 7.09 ppts

TIER 4 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – 5-7 pts)
25. Isaac Redman PIT (at OAK): 6.88 ppts (Mendenhall is out and Dwyer is questionable, Redman had 12 points in a game against Oakland last week)
26. Mark Ingram NO (vs KCY): 6.46 ppts
27. Michael Bush CHI (vs STL): 6.40 ppts (starting for Matt Forte, he might outperform his ranking)
28. Stevan Ridley NE (at BAL): 6.31 ppts (don’t look for much for a second-year back in Baltimore in primetime)
29. Frank Gore SFO (at MIN): 6.25 ppts
30. DeMarco Murray DAL (vs TBY): 6.08 ppts
31. Ben Tate HOU (at DEN): 5.92 ppts
32. BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN (at WSH): 5.46 ppts

TIER 5 (“DESPERATE STARTS”: Projected Points – <5 pts)
33. Pierre Thomas NO (vs KCY): 4.17 ppts (which of the Saints RBs will be the top scorer this week: my money is on Sproles with Ingram second)
34. Peyton Hillis KCY (at NO): 4.13 ppts
35. Beanie Wells ARZ (vs PHL): 3.50 ppts (Ryan Williams is questionable, so the door may be open for Wells)
36. Jackie Battle SDG (vs ATL): 3.24 ppts (Ryan Mathews is back in the lineup, so Battle goes back to being a backup)
37. Cedric Benson GBY (at SEA): 2.55 ppts
38. Chris Ivory NO (vs KCY): 2.10 ppts
39. Mike Tolbert CAR (vs NYG): 1.76 ppts (already played, 4 actual points)
40. Ryan Williams ARZ (vs PHL): 1.70 ppts

WIDE RECEIVERS
TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 12+ pts)
1. Jordy Nelson GBY (at SEA): 15.67 ppts
2. Calvin Johnson DET (at TEN): 15.23 ppts
3. Victor Cruz NYG (at CAR): 14.12 ppts (already played, 4 actual points)
4. Julio Jones ATL (at SDG): 12.83 ppts (probable with a thigh injury, but he should rebound nicely)
5. Marques Colston NO (vs KCY): 12.39 ppts (if Brees has a big day, Colston will be the top receiver)

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 8-12 pts)
6. Steve Smith CAR (vs NYG): 11.02 ppts (already played, 8 actual points)
7. Percy Harvin MIN (vs SFO): 10.27 ppts
8. Dez Bryant DAL (vs TBY): 8.43 ppts (Dallas receivers look to get hot against the Bucs)
9. Miles Austin DAL (vs TBY): 8.43 ppts
10. Dwayne Bowe KCY (at NO): 8.38 ppts (camp holdout Bowe had a 100-yard week against Buffalo last week)
11. Larry Fitzgerald ARZ (vs PHL): 8.18 ppts (the main man for the Cards in the battle of 2-0 teams against Philadelphia)
12. Brandon Marshall CHI (vs STL): 8.13 ppts
13. DeSean Jackson PHL (at ARZ): 8.13 ppts
14. Malcom Floyd SDG (vs ATL): 8.10 ppts

TIER 3 (“MATCHUP STARTS”: Projected Points – 5-8 pts)
15. Roddy White ATL (at SDG): 7.86 ppts
16. A.J. Green CIN (at WSH): 7.86 ppts
17. Michael Crabtree SFO (at MIN): 7.28 ppts (is Crabtree becoming dependable? He has started the year with 7 and 6 catches)
18. Wes Welker NE (at BAL): 7.18 ppts (Welker will be a larger focal point in the offense with Aaron Hernandez out)
19. Vincent Jackson TBY (at DAL): 6.78 ppts (it could be an aerial assault in Dallas today and Vincent Jackson has the height to go up and get Josh Freeman’s passes)
20. Andre Johnson HOU (at DEN): 6.69 ppts
21. Mike Wallace PIT (at OAK): 6.14 ppts
22. Steve Johnson BUF (at CLE): 6.00 ppts
23. Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK (vs PIT): 5.37 ppts
24. Demaryius Thomas DEN (vs HOU): 5.32 ppts
25. Antonio Brown PIT (at OAK): 5.28 ppts
26. Greg Jennings GBY (at SEA): 5.15 ppts (Jennings is questionable with a groin injury suffered in Week 1 and goes up against a surprisingly tough Seattle defense)

TIER 4 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – 3-5 pts)
27. Brandon Lloyd NE (at BAL): 4.81 ppts
28. Reggie Wayne IND (vs JAX): 4.59 ppts
29. Nate Washington TEN (vs DET): 4.58 ppts
30. Lance Moore NO (vs KCY): 3.96 ppts
31. Dexter McCluster KCY (at NO): 3.94 ppts
32. Laurent Robinson JAX (at IND): 3.61 ppts
33. Justin Blackmon JAX (at IND): 3.10 ppts
34. Denarius Moore OAK (vs PIT): 3.02 ppts

TIER 5 (“DESPERATE STARTS”: Projected Points – <3 pts)
35. Brandon LaFell CAR (vs NYG): 2.99 ppts (already played, 2 actual points)
36. Kevin Ogletree DAL (vs TBY): 2.83 ppts
37. Steve Smith STL (at CHI): 2.73 ppts
38. Torrey Smith BAL (vs NE): 2.42 ppts
39. Randy Moss SFO (at MIN): 2.25 ppts
40. Robert Meachem SDG (vs ATL): 1.96 ppts
 
TIGHT ENDS
TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 16+ pts)
1. Rob Gronkowski NE (at BAL): 20.01 ppts
2. Jimmy Graham NO (vs KCY): 17.88 ppts
3. Brandon Pettigrew DET (at TEN): 16.53 ppts (Tennessee has allowed 31 points per game to opposing tight ends)

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 10-16 pts)
4. Vernon Davis SFO (at MIN): 13.95 ppts
5. Antonio Gates SDG (vs ATL): 12.78 ppts (Gates is probable, but I’m sure he wants to get back in there after Dante Rosario scored three times last week)
6. Brent Celek PHL (at ARZ): 12.38 ppts (Celek, an afterthought at fantasy draft time, is pivotal to Vick’s success)
7. Jermichael Finley GBY (at SEA): 11.25 ppts (if he can hold on to the ball, he’ll be valuable in this one)
8. Jason Witten DAL (vs TBY): 10.42 ppts
9. Fred Davis WSH (vs CIN): 10.35 ppts (Davis is off to a slow start, but Cincinnati has allowed 14.5 points per game against opposing TEs)

TIER 3 (“MATCHUP STARTS”: Projected Points – 8-10 pts)
10. Jermaine Gresham CIN (at WSH): 9.13 ppts
11. Tony Gonzalez ATL (at SDG): 9.02 ppts
12. Dennis Pitta BAL (vs NE): 8.68 ppts (Pitta is getting most of the looks in Baltimore at the tight end spot over Ed Dickson)
13. Jared Cook TEN (vs DET): 8.17 ppts
14. Coby Fleener IND (vs JAX): 8.00 ppts

TIER 4 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – 5-8 pts)
15. Martellus Bennett NYG (at CAR): 7.46 ppts (already played, 19 actual points)
16. Owen Daniels HOU (at DEN): 7.34 ppts
17. Kyle Rudolph MIN (vs SFO): 6.20 ppts
18. Scott Chandler BUF (at CLE): 5.88 ppts (25 points scored this season in the first two weeks)
19. Dallas Clark TBY (at DAL): 5.73 ppts
20. Todd Heap ARZ (vs PHL): 5.53 ppts
21. Heath Miller PIT (at OAK): 5.06 ppts

TIER 5 (“DESPERATE STARTS”: Projected Points – <5 pts)
22. Kellen Davis CHI (vs STL): 4.60 ppts
23. Anthony Fasano MIA (vs NYJ): 4.17 ppts
24. Lance Kendricks STL (at CHI): 4.16 ppts
25. Ed Dickson BAL (vs NE): 3.61 ppts
26. Jacob Tamme DEN (vs HOU): 3.44 ppts (the Texans have shut down the opposition’s passing game)
27. Greg Olsen CAR (vs NYG): 3.39 ppts (already played, 16 actual points)
28. Marcedes Lewis JAX (at IND): 3.20 ppts
29. Will Heller DET (at TEN): 3.16 ppts
30. John Carlson MIN (vs SFO): 3.09 ppts
 
KICKERS
TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 10+ pts)
1. David Akers SFO (at MIN): 12.72 ppts (Akers has length, opportunity, and the 49ers will put some points up)
2. Stephen Gostkowski NE (at BAL): 11.27 ppts
3. Justin Tucker BAL (vs NE): 11.13 ppts (a 56-yarder put Tucker on the map, now he gets to prove himself in primetime)
4. Sebastian Janikowski OAK (vs PIT): 10.60 ppts

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 8-10 pts)
5. Jason Hanson DET (at TEN): 9.68 ppts
6. Shayne Graham HOU (at DEN): 9.58 ppts (Graham may benefit from the rarified air in Denver this week)
7. Dan Carpenter MIA (vs NYJ): 9.10 ppts
8. Mike Nugent CIN (at WSH): 8.85 ppts
9. Garrett Hartley NO (vs KCY): 8.71 ppts
10. Billy Cundiff WSH (vs CIN): 8.70 ppts
11. Matt Bryant ATL (at SDG): 8.68 ppts
12. Rob Bironas TEN (vs DET): 8.55 ppts
13. Nate Kaeding SDG (vs ATL): 8.19 ppts

TIER 3 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – <8 pts)
14. Alex Henery PHL (at ARZ): 7.98 ppts
15. Mason Crosby GBY (at SEA): 7.84 ppts
16. Greg Zuerlein STL (at CHI): 7.75 ppts
17. Blair Walsh MIN (vs SFO): 7.69 ppts
18. Jay Feely ARZ (vs PHL): 7.57 ppts
19. Phil Dawson CLE (vs BUF): 7.38 ppts
20. Josh Scobee JAX (at IND): 6.45 ppts
 
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
TIER 1 (“ELITE”: Projected Points – 10+ pts)
1.  Bears CHI (vs STL): 10.35 ppts

TIER 2 (“SOLID STARTS”: Projected Points – 6-10 pts)
2.  Texans HOU (at DEN): 6.97 ppts (the Texans D goes up against Manning, but pass defense is their strength)
3.  Packers GBY (at SEA): 6.77 ppts (do you think the Seahawks will put up 27 points again?)
4.  Jets NYJ (at MIA): 6.5 ppts (the defense is hungry against a team with a rookie quarterback)
5.  Giants NYG (at CAR): 6.4 ppts (already played, 20 actual points)
6.  Cardinals ARZ (vs PHL): 6.4 ppts (the Eagles have turned the ball over 9 times in the first 2 games)
7.  Browns CLE (vs BUF): 6.23 ppts
8.  Lions DET (at TEN): 6.16 ppts
9.  Eagles PHL (at ARZ): 6.15 ppts
10.  Ravens BAL (vs NE): 6.02 ppts

TIER 3 (“MATCHUP STARTS”: Projected Points – 5-6 pts)
11.  Falcons ATL (at SDG): 5.95 ppts
12.  Buccaneers TBY (at DAL): 5.81 ppts
13.  49ers SFO (at MIN): 5.76 ppts
14.  Bills BUF (at CLE): 5.68 ppts
15.  Steelers PIT (at OAK): 5.63 ppts (the Steelers shut the Jets down in the second half showing a good offense is the best defense)
16.  Patriots NE (at BAL): 5.56 ppts
17.  Seahawks SEA (vs GBY): 5.19 ppts

TIER 4 (“FRINGE STARTS”: Projected Points – <5 pts)
18.  Chiefs KCY (at NO): 4.85 ppts
19.  Broncos DEN (vs HOU): 4.83 ppts
20.  Redskins WSH (vs CIN): 4.63 ppts
 
WEEK 3 INJURIES
OUT (0% of playing)
RUNNING BACKS
Ahmad Bradshaw NYG (neck) (Replacement: Andre Brown)
Matt Forte CHI (ankle) (Replacement: Michael Bush)
Fred Jackson BUF (knee) (Replacement: C.J. Spiller)
Jonathan Stewart CAR (ankle) (Replacement: DeAngelo Williams)
Rashard Mendenhall PIT (knee) (Replacement: Isaac Redman)
Jahvid Best DET (PUP, concussion) (Replacement: Kevin Smith)

WIDE RECEIVERS
Jeremy Maclin PHL (hip) (Replacement: Damaris Johnson)
Hakeem Nicks NYG (foot) (Replacement: Ramses Barden)
Jerome Simpson MIN (suspension, eligible to return in Week 4) (Replacement: Michael Jenkins)

TIGHT ENDS
Dustin Keller NYJ (hamstring) – originally ranked #13 among TE (Replacement: Jeff Cumberland)
Aaron Hernandez NE (ankle) (Replacement: Michael Hoomanawanui)

DOUBTFUL (25% of playing)
RUNNING BACKS
Rashad Jennings JAX (knee) (Backup to Maurice Jones-Drew)

WIDE RECEIVERS
Pierre Garcon WSH (foot) (Replacement: Leonard Hankerson)

QUESTIONABLE (50% of playing)
RUNNING BACKS
Mike Goodson OAK (hamstring)
Steven Jackson STL (groin) (Possible replacement: Kyle Richardson)
Brandon Jacobs SFO (knee)
Taiwan Jones OAK (ribs)
James Starks GBY (toe)
Shane Vereen NE (foot)

WIDE RECEIVERS
Doug Baldwin SEA (shoulder)
Marques Colston NO (foot)
Greg Jennings GBY (groin)
Brandon Lloyd NE (thigh)
Dexter McCluster KCY (shoulder)

KICKERS
Sebastian Janikowski OAK (left groin)

PROBABLE (75% of playing)
QB: Drew Brees NO (ankle), Blaine Gabbert JAX (glute), Mark Sanchez NYJ (lower back)
RB: Jamaal Charles KCY (knee), Jonathan Dwyer PIT (toe), Marshawn Lynch SEA (back), Trent Richardson CLE (knee), Bernard Scott CIN (hand), Daniel Thomas MIA (concussion), Beanie Wells ARZ (knee), Ryan Williams ARZ (knee)
WR: Miles Austin DAL (hamstring), Randall Cobb GBY (hamstring), Austin Collie IND (head), DeSean Jackson PHL (hamstring), Calvin Johnson DET (ankle), Julio Jones ATL (thigh), Greg Little CLE (back), Sidney Rice SEA (rest), Emmanuel Sanders PIT (knee), Mike Wallace PIT (groin), Roddy White ATL (knee)
TE: Antonio Gates SDG (ribs), Heath Miller PIT (abdomen), Dante Rosario SDG (calf), Jason Witten DAL (abdomen)

NOTES: Are you serious?  Sidney Rice is on the injury report for “rest”?  A little more important are the minor nagging injuries to Miles Austin and Antonio Gates.  Also, is Mark Sanchez’s lower back going to open a door for Tim Tebow to step in for the Jets?  Both starting wide receivers in Atlanta are probable and the top two running backs in Arizona are also probable.
 
START ‘EM/SIT ‘EM
(number before player name is this week’s positional rankings)
QUARTERBACKS
START: #18 Matt Cassel KCY (at NO): Owned in 33%/Starting in 5% of CBSSports.com leagues
SIT: #26 Peyton Manning DEN (vs HOU): 100 O%/60 St% (CBS)

RUNNING BACKS
START: #15 Kevin Smith DET (at TEN): 98 O%/51 St% (CBS)
START: #25 Isaac Redman PIT (at OAK): 82 O%/24 St% (CBS)
SIT: #24 Darren McFadden OAK (vs PIT): 100 O%/86 St% (CBS)
SIT: #32 BenJarvis Green-Ellis CIN (at WSH): 100 O%/85 St% (CBS)

WIDE RECEIVERS
START: #17 Michael Crabtree SFO (at MIN): 94 O%/44 St% (CBS)
START: #29 Nate Washington TEN (vs DET): 82 O%/12 St% (CBS)
SIT: NR Danny Amendola STL (at CHI): 100 O%/60 St% (CBS)
SIT: NR Eric Decker DEN (vs HOU): 100 O%/59 St% (CBS)

TIGHT ENDS
START: #9 Fred Davis WSH (vs CIN): 78 O%/27 St% (CBS)
SIT: NR Jacob Tamme DEN (vs HOU): 93 O%/43 St% (CBS)

THE BARGAIN BIN
(number before player name is this week’s positional rankings)

Our Week 3 Bargain Bin has a few interesting choices and though all players in the NFL were evaluated, all players this week are on AFC teams.

QUARTERBACKS
#16 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF (at CLE): Owned in 63%/Starting in 9% of CBSSports.com leagues
#20 Mark Sanchez NYJ (at MIA): 28 O%/2 St% (CBS)

RUNNING BACKS
#3 Andre Brown NYG (at CAR): 88 O%/71 St% (CBS)
#38 Jackie Battle SDG (vs ATL): 32 O%/5 St% (CBS)

WIDE RECEIVERS
#32 Laurent Robinson JAX (at IND): 44 O%/5 St% (CBS)
NR Andrew Hawkins CIN (at WSH): 45 O%/20 St% (CBS)

TIGHT ENDS
#13 Dustin Keller NYJ (at MIA): 41 O%/1 St% (CBS)
#19 Scott Chandler BUF (at CLE): 35 O%/20 St% (CBS)

KICKERS
#7 Dan Carpenter MIA (vs NYJ): 22 O%/6 St% (CBS)

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
#7 Browns CLE (vs BUF): 14 O%/6 St% (CBS)

Key:
O% - Percentage that player is owned in CBSSports.com leagues
St% - Percentage that player is started in CBSSports.com league lineups

StatMan Contender Index: Week of September 10, 2012

The Yankees have not gained ground in the playoff race in four weeks, but they are still ahead of Baltimore and Tampa in the division. The saving grace for the Yankees is their remaining schedule.  The Yankees' remaining opponents this season have a combined winning percentage of .477, while Baltimore (#11, 277.7 SCI) has a .501 and Tampa Bay (#8, 279.8 SCI) has a .513.

Washington looks like a serious lock for the playoffs at this point, leading baseball over the past week in gaining ground.  The Nationals added 180.7 points to lead the way at 661.5 points in the StatMan Contender Index.  Washington trailed Cincinnati by 3 points last week, but took a commanding 78.5-point lead.

Atlanta is the top Wild Card leader in the rankings at #3 and the lowest division leader is the Chicago White Sox, which come in at #8 (292.9 SCI).  While Chicago leads the division, Detroit (#14, 266.8 SCI) has an easier schedule the rest of the way (DET .469, CHW .481).  Tampa Bay is the top-ranked team that would not have a playoff spot if the season ended today, as the Rays rank #9 (279.8 SCI).

StatMan CONTENDER RANKINGS - as of September 10th

#	Team	SCI	Record	Standings	Magic/Elimination	OWPCT Season	OWPCT Week 24	OWPCT Weeks 24-25
1	Washington	661.5	86-54, .614	+5.5 NLE	DIV M# 29, PLY M# 10	.5103	.5190	.5140
2	Cincinnati	533.0	84-57, .596	+8.5 NLC	DIV M# 30, PLY M# 12	.4890	.4825	.4690
3	Atlanta	404.6	81-60, .574	-5.5 NLE, +7.0 NLWC	DIV E# 17, PLY M# 15	.4966	.5535	.5118
4	San Francisco	393.5	79-61, .564	+5.5 NLW	DIV M# 29, PLY M# 17	.4608	.4460	.4378
5	Texas	370.1	83-57, .593	+3.5 ALW	DIV M# 26, PLY M# 17	.5177	.4480	.4803
6	NY Yankees	309.3	79-61, .564	+1.0 ALE	DIV M# 24, PLY M# 21	.4766	.5050	.5063
16	Philadelphia	206.5	69-71, .493	-17.0 NLE, -6.0 NLWC	DIV E# 7, PLY E# 18	.4880	.3710	.4393
19	NY Mets	143.9	65-75, .464	-21.0 NLE, -10.0 NLWC	DIV E# 3, PLY E# 14	.5125	.5535	.5118
25	Boston	68.3	63-78, .447	-16.5 ALE, -15.5 ALWC	DIV E# 6, PLY E# 7	.5413	.5055	.5311

Key:
SCI - StatMan Contender Index, DIV - Division, PLY - Playoff, M# - Magic Number, E# - Elimination Number, OWPCT - Opposing Winning Percentage, R/S - Rest of the Season
Divisions: NLE - NL East, NLC - NL Central, NLW - NL West, ALE - AL East, ALC - AL Central, ALW - AL West

A Petition to Save the Hockey Season

In this age of social media and going viral in an instant, the latest lockout news was not made by Commissioner Gary Bettman, NHLPA chief Donald Fehr, or any of the other movers and shakers who could bring us hockey.  Or was it?  Janne Makkonen, a 21-year-old freelance video editor from Finland, may help make the fan's vote heard.  He took to YouTube to provide some inspiration in a video titled "Together We Can" and created a petition for all of us to try to do the same.

See the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWQs3O_IDas
Sign the petition: http://www.change.org/petitions/gary-bettman-the-nhl-save-the-hockey-season-nolockout

I'll tell you this, it's inspiring.  I signed the petition and this is my reason for why this potential lockout is important to me:

***

Hockey, like any sport, marks the time.  The time was marked by greed between Fall 2004 and Summer 2005.  As much as people swore off the sport, people came back because the product was better.  Some people never returned.  With each work stoppage, more and more people will turn off hockey forever.  More will never attend another game.  More will move on to other things and spend their hard-earned money on something else.  Hockey, as in all sports, is a diversion from real life.  When real life greed permeates the great game of hockey, people get disillusioned.  How much more will we take before everyone just finds something else to do?

I get that everyone has to make a living, that this is a business, and one of the primary goals is to make money.  But, it is not the only goal.  The Stanley Cup stands for more than just money.  It is a legacy.  It is tradition.  It is pride.  Sadly, the hockey establishment has failed in all three areas.  Commissioner Bettman's legacy will be that of untold profits for the owners and sky-high ticket prices, while work stoppages have dotted the landscape.  The tradition of awarding a Stanley Cup every year since the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1919 was halted in 2005.  So much for tradition.  The pride of the owners, and the players, have brought us to the precipice of another work stoppage and a possibility of missing most or all of yet another season.

Hockey does mark the time and I am hoping the next few months will be marked with the puck on the ice instead of lawyers in board rooms.

Fantasy Today: July 14th

BASEBALL - July 14, 2012 - Day 100 of 181
Here are the best hitters and pitchers from yesterday's games:

Yesterday's Best: Hitters

• Overall
1. LF Alfonso Soriano CHC (20 pts - 4-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 R, 2 2B)
2. LF Ryan Braun MIL (19 pts - 4-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R, BB, SB)
3. 1B Mark Teixeira NYY (15 pts - 2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 R)

• Owned by <50%
1. C David Ross ATL (11 pts/1 O% - 1-2, HR, 4 RBI, R, 3 BB, K)
2. OF Jonny Gomes OAK (10 pts/3 O% - 2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI, R, K)
3. 3B Chipper Jones ATL (10 pts/42 O% - 2-4, HR, RBI, 2 R, 2B, BB)

• Owned by <25%
1. C David Ross ATL (11 pts/1 O% - 1-2, HR, 4 RBI, R, 3 BB, K)
2. OF Jonny Gomes OAK (10 pts/3 O% - 2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI, R, K)
3. 3B Todd Frazier CIN (8 pts/12 O% - 1-2, HR, RBI, 2 R, BB)

Yesterday's Best: Pitchers

• Overall
1. SP Doug Fister DET (31 pts - 7 IP, 3 H, ER, 0 BB, 8 K, W, QS)
2. SP Derek Holland TEX (29 pts - 7.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, W, QS)
3. SP Justin Masterson CLE (28 pts - 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, W, QS)

• Owned by <50%
1. SP Paul Maholm CHC (24 pts/9 O% - 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, W, QS)
2. SP Christian Friedrich COL (24 pts/13 O% - 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, W, QS)
3. SP A.J. Griffin OAK (13/20 O% - 6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, W, QS)

• Owned by <25%
1. SP Paul Maholm CHC (24 pts/9 O% - 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, W, QS)
2. SP Christian Friedrich COL (24 pts/13 O% - 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, W, QS)
3. SP A.J. Griffin OAK (13/20 O% - 6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, W, QS)

Daily Stock Up/Stock Down

• Daily Stock Up
• LF Ryan Braun MIL - 2 straight 10-point games
• SS Pedro Ciriaco BOS - 3 straight 5-point games
• SP Francisco Liriano MIN - 2 straight 20-point starts
• RP Craig Kimbrel ATL/RP Aroldis Chapman CIN - 3 straight 10-point appearances

• Daily Stock Down
• 3B Mark Reynolds BAL/SS J.J. Hardy BAL - 3 straight negative scoring days
• 3B Chris Johnson HOU - minus-6 points in last 10 games
• SP Zack Greinke KCY - 4 straight negative scoring starts

Positional Landscape

Starting Monday, July 16th, we will be taking a look at the lay of the land at a different position every day.  I will write about surprises, disappointments, the best, and the not-so-good.  Here is the weekly schedule:

• Mondays: Catchers
• Tuesdays: Corner infielders (1B/3B)
• Wednesdays: Middle infielders (2B/SS)
• Thursdays: Outfielders
• Fridays: Starting pitchers
• Saturdays: Relievers

Fantasy Baseball: Week 15 Primer

WEEK 15 PRIMER

Weekly Best

Weekly Best - Hitters

• All Hitters
1. CF Andrew McCutchen PIT (46 pts - .517/.548/.931, 15-29, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 11 R, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 BB, 3 K)
2. 3B Kevin Youkilis CHW (40 pts - .478/.571/.913, 11-23, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 7 R, 1 2B, 5 BB, 3 K)
3. LF Tyler Colvin COL (40 pts - .308/.357/.923, 8-26, 5 HR, 10 RBI, 6 R, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 SB)
4. 2B Neil Walker PIT (36 pts - .481/.548/.926, 13-27, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 8 R, 6 2B, 4 BB, 5 K, 1 CS, 1 GDP)
5. CF Mike Trout LAA (36 pts - .364/.407/.773, 8-22, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 6 R, 3 BB, 5 K, 4 SB)

• Hitters Owned by <50% (O%) of CBSSports.com Leagues
1. LF Tyler Colvin COL (40 pts/49 O% - .308/.357/.923, 8-26, 5 HR, 10 RBI, 6 R, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 SB)
2. LF Justin Ruggiano MIA (31 pts/20 O% - .393/.433/.857, 11-28, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 5 R, 1 2B, 2 BB, 8 K, 1 SB, 2 GDP)
3. RF Garrett Jones PIT (30 pts/24 O% - .385/.370/.731, 10-26, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 9 R, 3 2B, 5 K)
4. LF Delmon Young DET (30 pts/46 O% - .308/.321/.769, 8-26, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 5 R, 1 BB, 3 K)
5. 1B Casey Kotchman CLE (29 pts/9 O% - .450/.500/.800, 9-20, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 5 R, 1 2B 2 BB)

• Hitters Owned by <25% (O%) of CBSSports.com Leagues
1. LF Justin Ruggiano MIA (31 pts/20 O% - .393/.433/.857, 11-28, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 5 R, 1 2B, 2 BB, 8 K, 1 SB, 2 GDP)
2. RF Garrett Jones PIT (30 pts/24 O% - .385/.370/.731, 10-26, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 9 R, 3 2B, 5 K)
3. 1B Casey Kotchman CLE (29 pts/9 O% - .450/.500/.800, 9-20, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 5 R, 1 2B 2 BB)
4. RF Andruw Jones NYY (25 pts/1 O% - .333/.333/.905, 7-21, 4 HR, 6 RBI, 4 R, 3 K, 1 GDP)
5. 3B Casey McGehee PIT (25 pts/11 O% - .385/.429/.654, 10-26, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 5 R, 4 2B, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 GDP, 1 HP)

Weekly Best - Pitchers

• All Pitchers
1. SP Jered Weaver LAA (56 pts - 2-0, 2/2 GS/QS, 0.00 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 15 IP, 8 H, 4 BB, 7 K)
2. SP James McDonald PIT (50 pts - 2-0, 2/2 GS/QS, 1.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 14 IP, 8 H, 5 BB, 14 K)
3. SP Homer Bailey CIN (50 pts - 2-0, 2/2 GS/QS, 2.45 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 14.2 IP, 12 H, 1 BB, 15 K)
4. SP Bronson Arroyo CIN (45 pts - 3-hit CG shutout, 1 BB, 8 K, W, QS)
5. RP Kenley Jansen LAD (42 pts - 3 SV, 4 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K)

• Pitchers Owned by <50% (O%) of CBSSports.com Leagues
1. SP Bronson Arroyo CIN (45 pts/38 O% - 3-hit CG shutout, 1 BB, 8 K, W, QS)
2. SP Bartolo Colon OAK (39 pts/33 O% - 0-0, 2/2 GS/QS, 1.23 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 14.2 IP, 12 H, 1 BB, 8 K)
3. RP Casey Janssen TOR (37 pts/48 O% - 3 SV, 3.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K)
4. SP Chris Tillman BAL (36 pts/13 O% - 8.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, W, QS)
5. SP Jeff Karstens PIT (35 pts/9 O% - 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, W, QS)

• Pitchers Owned by <25% (O%) of CBSSports.com Leagues
1. SP Chris Tillman BAL (36 pts/13 O% - 8.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, W, QS)
2. SP Jeff Karstens PIT (35 pts/9 O% - 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, W, QS)
3. SP Zach McAllister CLE (32 pts/15 O% - 1-0, 2/1 GS/QS, 2.31 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 12 H, 3 BB, 13 K)
4. RP Scott Downs LAA (32 pts/27 O% - 2 SV, 4 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K)
5. SP Freddy Garcia NYY (31 pts/14 O% - 1-0, 2/1 GS/QS, 2.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 12 IP, 11 H, 2 BB, 9 K)

Weekly Best statistics are for the games of Week 14 (July 2-8, 2012)

Hot Pick-Ups

• Shallow Leagues
• LF Tyler Colvin COL - Colvin came up with the Cubs and has resurfaced in fantasy relevance with Colorado and if he hits, he'll find at-bats. But, he has Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Cuddyer, and Dexter Fowler taking up spots in the outfield.  With Todd Helton going on the DL, perhaps Cuddyer will play some first base to give Colvin some at-bats.
• SP Jose Quintana CHW - Coming out of the All-Star Break, Quintana is 3-0 in his last 5 starts with a 2.04 ERA, a WHIP of 0.99, and 27 strikeouts.  Although he has only 9 starts this season, he has a foothold on a rotation spot for the next few weeks with John Danks out until August.

• Deep Leagues
• LF Justin Ruggiano MIA - How much stock do you put into a guy like Ruggiano?  He is 30 with 195 at-bats on his resume entering this year, but in 85 at-bats for the Marlins this year, he is .388/.459/.741 and four double-digit fantasy scoring weeks.  Ride the wave while it lasts.
• SP Carlos Villanueva TOR - Villanueva's history was that of a prospect starter turned into a long reliever that had 27 starts for Milwaukee over 5 seasons. Now in his 2nd year in Toronto, he is back in the rotation after 13 starts last year.  In his last two appearances, which were his first 2 starts of the year, he has struck out 13 in 11 innings, going 1-0 with 3 earned runs allowed.

• Hot Drops
• SP Garrett Richards LAA - After four great starts (2-0, 1.69 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), he fell back to Earth quickly with 12 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings against Toronto and Baltimore.  Dan Haren is on the DL, so Richards may get one more start, but Richards, as well as Brad Mills, are on the outside looking in at the Angels rotation that still has Jerome Williams taking up one of the spots for now.
• SP Carlos Zambrano MIA - Zambrano is a victim of the overall disdain for anyone wearing bright orange, blue, and yellow.  In fact, in Big Z's last four starts, he has lasted at least 5 innings and has not allowed more than 4 earned runs in any of those starts.  But, he's 0-2 in that span and has not won since June 3rd and the Marlins have gone 10-21 since Zambrano's last victory.

Injuries

• Here are the players who have returned to action from the DL in the past week:

Player	Date	Days Since Last Game
Holland, Derek SP TEX	7/7/2012	32
Dempster, Ryan SP CHC	7/8/2012	23
Sweeney, Ryan RF BOS	7/7/2012	21

• Here are some of the players who are scheduled to come back in Week 15 (days missed are as of Friday, July 13th):

Player	Days Missed
Cain, Lorenzo CF KC	93+
Ellsbury, Jacoby CF BOS	90+
Bonifacio, Emilio SS MIA	55+
Hernandez, Ramon C COL	50+
Markakis, Nick RF BAL	44+
Kemp, Matt CF LAD	43+
Ethier, Andre RF LAD	15+

2-Start Pitchers

• No 2-start pitchers in Week 15

Schedule Stars

Easy Street

• San Francisco (.384) - vs HOU (7/13-7/15)
• L.A. Dodgers (.388) - vs SDG (7/13-7/15)
• Arizona (.388) - at CHC (7/13-7/15)
• Philadelphia (.391) - at COL (7/13-7/15)
• Texas (.414) - at SEA (7/13-7/15)

Tough Draw

• LA Angels (.612) - at NYY (7/13-7/15)
• Seattle (.605) - vs TEX (7/13-7/15)
• Miami (.590) - vs WSH (7/13-7/15)
• Milwaukee (.565) - vs PIT (7/13-7/15)

• NY Yankees (.558) - vs LAA (7/13-7/15)

2012 NHL Free Agent Frenzy Arrives

Welcome to this year’s free agent frenzy, which begins on July 1 at 12:00 PM eastern.  And, of course, Happy Canada Day to our neighbo(u)rs in the north.

The NHL free agency crop is a bit lacking this year, but with the cap increasing to $70.2 million, plenty of money will change hands and it will still be sure to be a frenzy.  This is the first free agency period in a few years where the trade market is more actually more interesting than the free agent market.  Forwards Rick Nash and Bobby Ryan are up for possible movement, as well as goaltender Roberto Luongo, who would have to share time with Cory Schneider if he stays in Vancouver.  There is top-end talent in this free agent class with Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, but a lot of potential free agents have opted to sign with their current clubs before July 1st.  Why?

Teams have more money to spend and free agent contracts have always been about overpaying and giving a long-term deal to players who are anything but a lock to produce and earn that huge contract.  General managers should opt for players who are known commodities in their organization, already having played with the guys on their roster and already having been coached by their staff.  Players usually wait for July 1st to see their paychecks potentially skyrocket, undoubtedly at the urging of their agents.

This year, however, players are uncertain about the looming expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement in September and a potential delay in the start of the 2012-13 season.  The result of a new CBA may be a reduced salary cap than what the league is working with today, so players are probably returning to the same security of a known situation with their existing teams. 

What is this, risk management for a time of the year where risk is cast aside?  Welcome to uncertain waters of today’s NHL and the labor issues that are right around the corner.

The trade market could pick up today because of the need to clear out cap space, which is the name of the game.  But, according to CapGeek, 19 teams are under the $54.2 million salary cap floor.  In other words, very little cap space has to be cleared.  Among those 19 teams, historically free-spending teams such as the Rangers, Canadiens, and Red Wings, are under the floor.  They will not have a problem throwing money at holes on their rosters.

Yet another wrinkle in this free agency season is the potential for some of the most sought-after free agents waiting a while before signing because of money issues with their previous clubs.  Shane Doan is waiting to find out about the Phoenix ownership situation, according to TSN’s Darren Dreger, which may become clearer on July 9th.  Zach Parise could very possibly wait a bit before deciding to sign somewhere new, as the Devils ownership situation needs a cash infusion and, according to the New York Post, the NHL is waiting a few weeks before stepping in.  But, this may take the better part of six weeks to determine the state of the franchise and Parise, and fellow free agent Martin Brodeur, will definitely sign before then.

At the down of the frenzy, Boston has the smallest amount of cap space ($278K) and their roster is all but set with 23 players under contract.  The Flyers have the fifth-most space in the league at about $10.5 million with 20 players signed, while the three New York-area teams are currently under the cap floor.  The Rangers are closest to the floor with about $50.5 million tied up in 16 players ($19.7 cap space), with the Devils ranking 11th in cap space available (about $25.3 million) and the Islanders figuring in 10th (about $25.5 million).*

The Islanders have improved their 2012-13 on-ice product with a draft day trade for defenseman Lubomir Visnovsky.  The Devils have the most to lose in free agency with Parise and Brodeur likely to leave, and they have signed some ancillary players such as their entire fourth line (Ryan Carter, Steve Bernier, Stephen Gionta).  The Rangers secured their backup goaltender in coming to an agreement with Martin Biron for $1.3 million per year for two years.  Boston arrived at an important agreement with restricted free agent, Tuukka Rask, on a one-year, $3.5 million deal, made much more important because of Tim Thomas taking a one-year sabbatical.  Philadelphia went the trade route in improving their defense by dealing James van Riemsdyk to Toronto for Luke Schenn.  Philadelphia may lose Matt Carle, who will command a big contract especially in this market.

Stay close to a smartphone, laptop, or TV on July 1st because you will see a few nutty contracts and some surprises.  And, if you have not done so yet, listen to our Free Agent Frenzy preview on Sports With The StatMan (Show #271) for our views on the free agency period and some predictions.

* - All figured courtesy of CapGeek.com

2012 NHL Draft Predictions

Now is the time to dream.  Now is the time to hope.  Especially for fans of teams that did not make the playoffs and are starved for young, cheap talent, today is your Hockey Christmas.  Today is the NHL Entry Draft.  The cast of 17-year-olds are projected, quizzed, and fawned over.  Some will work out, others will flame out.  But, this is the day where franchise turning points are made, for better or worse.

Until tonight, a draft pick is an unknown asset, possibly flipped for an actual name.  If the draft pick is made, the player is given the hyperbolic treatment with comments such as "he hits like Dion Phaneuf" or "he has the hands of a John Tavares".  The players have a few years to fill out and find their place in their organizations, but fans acquaint themselves to the newbie from Day One.  One message to the fans, though: Don't fall in love.  No matter how many capsules you read or YouTube highlights you watch, that player you think would make a perfect first-line center or top-pair defenseman might just go to your rival.  The truth is no one really knows whether the talent will ever be realized.  I must admit, as an Islanders fan, I had sleepless nights over Dan Blackburn and Hugh Jessiman.  I'm just sayin'.

The 2012 NHL Entry Draft (Round 1: Friday 7pm, NBC Sports Network; Rounds 2-7: Saturday 10am, NHL Network) has a few aces at the top of the draft list and is supposed to be a relatively shallow pool of talent.  But, they always say that.  This is what scouts are paid for: to find the diamonds in the rough.  The fifth-round pick who turns into an All-Star.  The seventh-round pick who ends up carving out a 10-year NHL career.  They are out there in every draft.

Locally, the Islanders are the first of the five local teams we cover (three New York-area teams plus Boston and Philadelphia) to select and they will go fourth, barring a trade, which is not out of the realm of possibility.  There could be two types of trades with the Isles this year.  One we have seen from GM Garth Snow and one we have not.  If Snow and his scouting department are targeting a below-the-radar type like Josh Bailey was in 2008, Snow could move down and stockpile picks.  But, in 2008, the reason for stockpiling the picks was to kick off the rebuild and fertilize the farm system with talented players.  That is already done.  Bridgeport is looking strong. 

So, my guess is that the more likely scenario is to package that pick with a player or two to get a name with years left on a contract.  During Snow's tenure, it has been proven time and time again that Type A free agents do not list Long Island as a potential destination.  The only way to get a proven top-six forward or top-four defenseman in 2012-13 is through a trade.  Snow has not done this at the draft, a draft parodied by former GM Mike Milbury in past years with his fire sales at the draft table.  I have confidence Snow will take higher percentage gambles, if he gambles at all.  Snow has only pulled off a star-for-asset deal once and while the Ryan Smyth trade did not bring Smyth to Long Island long-term, it did not hurt the franchise as Ryan O'Marra, the key prospect that went to Edmonton in that deadline deal, is an AHL journeyman. 

Any star-for-asset trades would include a player starving for a fresh start and someone who more than a year to go on his deal.  The re-signing of Evgeni Nabokov is huge because it shows a veteran may like it on the Island.  The young talent is also a selling point the Islanders did not have to woo Smyth.  But, the higher percentage play is to get a hungry late 20's, early 30's sniper in a deal with at least three years to go on the contract.  In three seasons, the Coliseum deal will be up and the Islanders will move into a new building, be it Brooklyn or somewhere else inside or outside the New York metro.  They will be good then and ready to pop, so a player would be more likely to re-sign.

The other four teams pick in the final ten picks of the first round, unless a team moves up or down.  The biggest possibility of moving up belongs to the New Jersey Devils, who have the #29 pick in the first round, mainly because the Devils have to pay the NHL back with a draft pick in the next couple of years as reparations for the obscene contract they gave to star Ilya Kovalchuk.  Ironically enough, that same contract may make it tough to sign Zach Parise and keep him in the Garden State.  GM Lou Lamoriello decided against giving this pick away, which is the second-lowest pick you can get in the top round.  So, the prevailing thinking is either Lamoriello will package the pick for a player or move up.

Assuming the teams stay where they are, here are my picks for the top 10 picks of the 1st round and the local 1st round picks:

1. Edmonton - RW Nail Yakupov - Sarnia

2. Columbus - RW Filip Forsberg - Leksand

3. Montreal - D Ryan Murray - Everett

4. N.Y. Islanders - D Matthew Dumba - Red Deer

5. Toronto - D Morgan Rielly - Moose Jaw
6. Anaheim - F Mikhail Grigorenko - Quebec
7. Minnesota - F Alex Galchenyuk - Sarnia
8. Carolina - D Cody Ceci - Ottawa
9. Winnipeg - D Griffin Reinhart - Edmonton
10. Tampa Bay - F Radek Faksa - Kitchener
20. Philadelphia - F Thomas Wilson - Plymouth
24. Boston - D Dalton Thrower - Saskatoon
28. N.Y. Rangers - F Stefan Matteau - U.S. NTDP
29. New Jersey - G Malcolm Subban - Belleville