Tuesday, January 12, 2010

GHT: Determination of Seeds

As we get ready for the kick-off of the 2010 Greatest Hitter Tournament, let's take a look at how the matchups and pitching staffs were determined.

The seeds were determined by separating players into tiers of greatness. There are 32 players in each “tier”, representing players across eras and players with different playing styles. Within those tiers, the players were ranked according to their best single season in their career. That single season was used as the model for each player, as the 14 hitters on each team are representative of that single season.

Each round contains a 11-man pitching staff to complete each team’s 25-man roster. There are different pitchers that will be featured in each round. Each staff has seven starters and four relievers. Based on the matchup and based on overall talent, a five-man rotation and bullpen roles will be determined. During the season, after each month, changes may be made to staff roles, but the personnel will stay the same throughout the entire season. For hitters, even though all players have the same statistics, their ratings may differ slightly and hitters get on hot and cold streaks. Each lineup will be revisited after each month.

The tournament will be played in a bracket format. Every hitter in the first tier (ranked #1-#32) receives a bye in the Round 1. The bottom 64 teams will play each other in 162-game head-to-head “seasons”. The 32 teams that win more games than they lose will move on to the round of 64. Even if a team has “clinched” a 162-game series victory, the full schedule will be played out so that a full season could be played by each hitter and pitcher. In the event of a 81-81 tie, a one-game playoff will be played at the end of the “season” in order to crown the winner of that matchup.

In Round 2, those teams will all face players that received the Round 1 bye. From there, the 64 teams that remain would constitute a normal bracket with four “regions” of 16 teams. Play will continue until there is one team remaining. Players and pitchers will be re-imported for each season so that they do not age. The eventual champion will participate in seven seasons if the winner is not among the top 32 teams or six seasons if the winner is one of the top 32 teams.

In the next post, we will reveal the seeds and analyze the Round 1 matchups and pitching staffs.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Hockey Edition - Week 15

WEEK 14 REVIEW
The first games of the week have just started if you run a Sunday-through-Saturday scoring period. The local forwards that played the best were the kids, as Blake Wheeler of the Bruins, Josh Bailey of the Islanders, and Flyers rookie James van Riemsdyk bested everyone else.

THREE STARS
Forwards
- 1st Star: Alexandre Burrows VAN – 38 points (6-1-7 in 3 games, +6, 1 SHG)
- 2nd Star: Marian Hossa CHI – 31 points (5-0-5 in 4 games, +5, 1 PPG, 1 SHG)
- 3rd Star: Alexander Semin WSH – 26.5 points (4-1-5 in 3 games, +2, 1 SHG)

Local Forwards
- 1st Star: Blake Wheeler BOS – 25.5 points (#4 F overall, 4-3-7 in 4 games, +3, 4 PIM, 1 PPG)
- 2nd Star: James van Riemsdyk PHL – 23 points (#6 F overall, 3-3-6 in 4 games, +2, 1 PPG)
- 3rd Star: Josh Bailey NYI – 21.5 points (#9 F overall, 2-4-6 in 3 games, +3, 1 PPG)

Defensemen
- 1st Star: Chris Pronger PHL – 43 points (1-6-7 in 4 games, +7, 2 PIM)
- 2nd Star: Duncan Keith CHI – 36.5 points (2-4-6 in 4 games, +6)
- 3rd Star: Mike Green WSH – 30.5 points (0-4-4 in 3 games, +7, 2 PIM)

Local Defensemen
- 1st Star: Pronger PHL – 43 points (#1 D overall)
- 2nd Star: Matt Carle PHL – 21.5 points (tied-#11 D overall, 1-2-3 in 4 games, +4, 1 PPG)
- 3rd Star: Mark Streit NYI – 21.5 points (tied-#11 D overall, 1-2-3 in 3 games, +4, 1 PPG)

Goaltenders
- 1st Star: Ryan Miller BUF – 32.8 points (3-0-0 in 3 games, 1 shutout, 1.67 GAA, .958 SvPct)
- 2nd Star: Tomas Vokoun FLA – 29 points (2-2-0 in 4 games, 1 shutout, 1.52 GAA, .957 SvPct)
- 3rd Star: Roberto Luongo VAN – 25.6 points (2-0-1 in 3 games, 1 shutout, 1.62 GAA, .951 SvPct)

Local Goaltenders
- 1st Star: Martin Brodeur NJD – 22.4 points (#4 G overall, 2-0-0 in 2 games, 1 shutout, 0.49 GAA, .983 SvPct)
- 2nd Star: Henrik Lundqvist NYR – 20 points (#7 G overall, 3-0-0 in 3 games, 1.67 GAA, .941 SvPct)
- 3rd Star: Michael Leighton PHL – 17.4 points (#9 G overall, 3-0-1 in 4 games, 2.86 GAA, .906 SvPct)

Special Teams
- Best in League: Philadelphia Flyers +14 (7-15 PP, 15-15 PK, 0 SHG, 0 SHGA)
- Best among locals: Flyers +14 (1st overall)

WEEK 15 PREVIEW
This will be a slow week compared to the rest of the season in the NHL's compressed schedule. There are 46 games this week. In the 13 weeks that remain this year, if you exclude the two-week Olympic break, only two weeks have fewer games (Week 17: 45 games, Week 20: 43 games).

SCHEDULE
4-Game Weeks:
- Sunday-to-Saturday scoring period: Carolina, Columbus, Dallas, Minnesota, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, San Jose
- Monday-to-Sunday scoring period: Calgary, Detroit, Minnesota, N.Y. Rangers, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Washington

2-Game Weeks:
- Sunday-to-Saturday scoring period: Buffalo, Colorado, Montreal, N.Y. Islanders, Philadelphia,
- Monday-to-Sunday scoring period: Buffalo, Colorado, N.Y. Islanders

Local Matchups:
- Devils at Rangers (Tuesday)

START ‘EM and SIT ‘EM
Last Week (Start vs. Sit)
- Forwards: Recchi BOS (1-1-2 in 4 games, -3, 1 PPG) vs. Penner EDM (1-0-1 in 2 games, -2) (W, 4.5 to 2.0)
- Defensemen: Del Zotto NYR (1-1-2 in 4 games, +3, 4 PIM)) vs. Johnson STL (0-0-0 in 3 games, -1, 4 PIM) (W, 11 to minus-4)
- Goaltending: Howard DET (2-1-0 in 3 games, 1.68 GAA, .958 SvPct) vs. Turco (1-1-0 in 2 games, 3.53 GAA, .848 SvPct) (W, 21.6 to 4.8)

Season: 3-0

Forwards
- Start: Joe Pavelski SJS – If being named to the U.S. Olympic team doesn’t make him smile, how about 4 games this week?
- Sit: James Neal DAL – He has not been the same since his suspension (7-5-12 in 21 games)

Defensemen
- Start: Brian Pothier WSH – Getting back from injury and the Caps should do well against TB, FLA, and TOR
- Sit: Dion Phaneuf CGY – A trade demand is being denied in Calgary. Where has his offense gone (3-6-9 in last 35 games)

Goaltending
- Start: Pascal Leclaire OTT – All 4 games this week are on the road, but most of competition has trouble scoring (CAR, ATL, NYR)
- Sit: Tim Thomas BOS – Thomas and the Bruins embark on a West Coast swing with three in California

We will break down each of the four Wild Card matchups on Sports With The StatMan (#41) this Sunday night, January 10th. Join us at our new time, 8-9pm Eastern. We will be among the first to analyze the Divisional Championship games. Besides football, we'll talk about the moves the Mets still have to make. We will also have some NHL talk, as the Bruins and Rangers met twice this week and the week of outdoor hockey at Fenway comes to an end.

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:
• “Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition - Wild Card Weekend

The season is over and while our preseason predictions for each team will be broken down after the Super Bowl on the Sports With The StatMan show, let's get into the predictions for the four games of Wild Card Weekend. Also, even though the regular season is over, playoff fantasy leagues are gaining popularity, so naturally we will have a playoff version of Start 'Em and Sit 'Em.

Before we talk about this week, let's review last week. The 300-yard passers, 100-yard rushers, and 100-yard receivers are in the Show Notes from last week (#40), but here are the top fantasy scorers at each position:

Week 17 Top Fantasy Performers
Quarterback
1. Brett Favre MIN - 32 points (25-for-31, 316 yards, 4 TD (10,4,12,1), 0 INT, 1 rush for 2 yards)
2. Jay Cutler CHI - 29 points (22-for-36, 276 yards, 4 TD (7,9,1,12), 0 INT, 1 rush for 5 yards)
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF - 28 points (16-for-25, 155 yards, 3 TD (11,21,41), 0 INT, 1 rush for 7 yards)

Running Back
1. Jamaal Charles KCY - 39 points (25 rushes for 259 yards, 2 TD (5,56), 1 rec for 3 yards)
2. Willis McGahee BAL - 34 points (16 rushes for 167 yards, 3 TD (2,77,2))
3. Fred Jackson BUF - 30 points (33 rushes for 212 yards, 2 rec for 15 yards, 1 rec TD (11))

Wide Receiver
1. Jabar Gaffney DEN - 21 points (14 rec for 213 yards)
2. Sidney Rice MIN - 21 points (6 rec for 112 yards, 2 TD (4,12))
3. Brad Smith NYJ - 19 points (4 rushes for 92 yards, 1 rush TD (32))

Tight End
1. Vernon Davis SFO - 24 points (6 rec for 89 yards, 1 TD (73))
2. Zach Miller JAX - 24 points (8 rec for 69 yards, 2 TD (6,15))
T3. Joel Dreessen HOU - 22 points (6 rec for 81 yards, 1 TD (25))
T3. Visanthe Shiancoe MIN - 22 points (7 rec for 94 yards, 1 TD (10))

Kicker
1. Ryan Succop KCY - 17 points (3-for-3 (20,36,47) in field goals, 5-for-5 in extra points)
T2. Jay Feely NYJ - 16 points (3-for-3 (20,39,40) in field goals, 4-for-4 in extra points)
T2. Robbie Gould CHI - 16 points (3-for-3 (44,28,34) in field goals, 4-for-4 in extra points)
T2. Jason Hanson DET - 16 points (3-for-3 (42,48,32) in field goals, 2-for-2 in extra points)

Defense/Special Team
1. Packers GBY - 17 points (3 INT, 1 safety, 1 INT return TD (45), 7 points allowed)
2. Jets NYJ - 16 points (1 INT, 3 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, 0 points allowed)
T3. 49ers SFO/Chiefs KCY/Cowboys DAL - 15 points each

For the season, several local players made the top three at each position, but here are the top three at each fantasy position, as well as the top three players in our local area of New York, Boston, and Philadelphia:

Season Top Fantasy Performers
Quarterback
1. Aaron Rodgers GBY - 409 points (4,434 passing yards, 30 TD, 7 INT, 103.2 rating, 304 rushing yards, 5 rushing TD, 4 fumbles lost)
2. Drew Brees NO - 366 points (4,388 passing yards, 34 TD, 11 INT, 109.6 rating, 33 rushing yards, 2 TD, 1 rec for minus-4 yards, 6 fumbles lost)
3. Tom Brady NE - 335 points (4,398 passing yards, 28 TD, 13 INT, 96.2 rating, 44 rushing yards, 1 TD, 2 fumbles lost)
Local QBs: 3. Brady NE (335 points), 10. Eli Manning NYG (292), 11. Donovan McNabb PHL (286)

Running Back
1. Chris Johnson TEN - 358 points (2,006 rushing yards (5.6 ypc), 14 TD, 50 rec for 503 yards (10.1 avg), 2 rec TD, 3 fumbles lost)
2. Maurice Jones-Drew JAX - 250 points (1,391 rushing yards (4.5 ypc), 15 TD, 53 rec for 374 yards (7.1 avg), 1 rec TD, 1 fumble lost)
3. Adrian Peterson MIN - 247 points (1,389 rushing yards (4.4 ypc), 18 TD, 43 rec for 436 yards (10.1 avg), 6 fumbles lost)
Local RBs: 6. Thomas Jones NYJ (209 points), T27. Brandon Jacobs NYG (122), 29. Ahmad Bradshaw NYG (119)

Wide Receiver
1. Miles Austin DAL - 212 points (81 rec for 1,320 yards (16.3 avg), 11 TD, 2 rushes for minus-2 yards)
2. Andre Johnson HOU - 211 points (101 rec for 1,569 yards (15.5 avg), 9 TD, 2 rushes for 10 yards)
3. DeSean Jackson PHL - 209 points (63 rec for 1,167 yards (18.5 avg), 9 TD, 11 rushes for 137 yards (12.5 avg), 1 rush TD, 1 fumble lost)
Local WRs: 3. Jackson PHL (209 points), 4. Randy Moss NE (205), 12. Wes Welker NE (153)

Tight End
1. Dallas Clark IND - 261 points (100 rec for 1,106 yards (11.1 avg), 10 TD, 2 rushes for 11 yards (5.5 avg))
2. Vernon Davis SFO - 244 points (78 rec for 965 yards (12.4 avg), 13 TD)
3. Antonio Gates SDG - 235 points (79 rec for 1,157 yards (14.6 avg), 8 TD)
Local TEs: 4. Brent Celek PHL (211 points), 16. Kevin Boss NYG (120), 19. Dustin Keller NYJ (100)

Kicker
1. David Akers PHL - 172 points (32-for-37 on field goals, 43-for-45 on extra points)
2. Nate Kaeding SDG - 171 points (32-for-35 on field goals, 50-for-51 on extra points)
T3. Jay Feely NYJ - 159 points (30-for-36 on field goals, 32-for-32 on extra points)
T3. Ryan Longwell MIN - 159 points (26-for-28 on field goals, 54-for-55 on extra points)
Local Ks: 1. Akers PHL (172 points), T3. Feely NYJ (159), 6. Stephen Gostkowski NE (153)

Defense/Special Team
1. Eagles PHL - 158 points (25 INT, 2 safeties, 44 sacks, 13 fumble recoveries, 6 D/ST TD, 337 points allowed)
2. Packers GBY - 154 points (30 INT, 1 safety, 37 sacks, 10 fumble recoveries, 4 D/ST TD, 297 points allowed)
3. 49ers SFO - 153 points (18 INT, 44 sacks, 15 fumble recoveries, 4 D/ST TD, 281 points allowed)
Local D/STs: 1. Eagles PHL (158 points), 4. Jets NYJ (147), 11. Patriots NE (126)

***

Three of the four Wild Card games involve local area teams. Only the Packers-Cardinals, which is the late afternoon game on Sunday, does not involve the local playoff qualifiers (Patriots, Jets, Eagles):

WILD CARD WEEKEND SCHEDULE
Saturday 4:30pm - N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati (-2.5)
Saturday 8pm - Philadelphia at Dallas (-4)
Sunday 1pm - Baltimore at New England (-3)
Sunday 4:30pm - Green Bay at Arizona (Pick 'em)

Wild Card Picks:
NYJ-CIN: Jets (+2.5) win outright
The Jets might only beat one or two other teams in the AFC Playoffs, but the Bengals are the team the Jets probably match up the best against. The Bengals saw what the Jets have, but that may not stop the Jets from winning. The Jets will run the ball and the Bengals will win their first playoff game in 19 years if they make Sanchez have to beat them.

PHL-DAL: Eagles (+4) win outright
Teams rarely sweep a season series from a divisional rival and win against them again in the playoffs. Dallas is trying to do just that, as Tony Romo tries to win his first playoff game and Wade Phillips tries to navigate a Cowboys team to their first playoff win in 13 years. The Eagles will have more success against the Cowboys secondary than the Cowboys will against the Eagles defensive backfield.

BAL-NE: Patriots (-3) win and cover
This is the easiest game to pick, but the best news for the Ravens was the injury to WR Wes Welker. Julian Edelman will sub for Welker and will do almost as well. The Ravens have a great defensive history, but in recent memory, their defense is overrated and their penalties come at the worst times.

GBY-ARZ: Cardinals (Pick 'em) win/cover
In a game that will undoubtedly be closer than last week's 33-7 Packer win, Anquan Boldin may not play, which would be a big loss for Arizona before they even kick the ball off. But, the defending NFC Champions, backed by Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner will win if they win if the Cardinal defensive line can win the battle in the trenches.

Start 'Em/Sit 'Em
QB: Joe Flacco BAL (start) vs. Carson Palmer CIN (sit)
New England is vulnerable deep and Flacco has two games of playoff experience. If a banged-up Chad Ochocinco is shut down by Darrelle Revis, Palmer will have to rely on ex-Jet Laveranues Coles.

RB: Chris Wells ARZ (start) vs. Marion Barber DAL (sit)
Wells has gained playing time and big minutes during the season, so he is pretty fresh for this game. In order for play action passing to work for the Cardinals, the running game will at least have to keep the Packers honest. Barber is part of a three-headed monster against a good Eagles defense that will try to stop Barber from bouncing to the outside.

WR: Julian Edelman NE (start) vs. Anquan Boldin ARZ (sit)
Edelman may be the biggest surprise of this round, as he will try to fill Wes Welker's big shoes. Randy Moss will draw more coverage and Edelman could make the Ravens sorry. Boldin is hampered by an ankle injury and may not play much for the Cardinals.

Playoff Team Rankings
Quarterbacks
1. Rodgers GBY, 2. Brady NE, 3. McNabb PHL, 4. Romo DAL, 5. Flacco BAL, 6. Warner ARZ, 7. Palmer CIN, 8. Sanchez NYJ

Rushing
1. Jones/Greene NYJ, 2. Rice/McGahee BAL, 3. Barber/Jones/Choice DAL, 4. Benson/Johnson/Scott CIN, 5. Grant/Jackson GBY, 6. Westbrook/McCoy PHL, 7. Maroney/Morris/Taylor NE, 8. Wells/Hightower ARZ

Receiving (WR/WR/TE)
1. Austin/Williams/Witten DAL, 2. Jackson/Maclin/Celek PHL, 3. Jennings/Driver/Finley GBY, 4. Fitzgerald/Boldin/Becht ARZ, 5. Moss/Edelman/Watson NE, 6. Cotchery/Edwards/Keller NYJ, 7. Ochocinco/Coles/Foschi CIN, 8. Mason/Clayton/Heap BAL

Kicking
1. Gostkowski NE, 2. Akers PHL, 3. Crosby GBY, 4. Feely NYJ, 5. Rackers ARZ, 6. Graham CIN, 7. Cundiff BAL, 8. Suisham DAL

Coaching
1. Belichick NE, 2. Reid PHL, 3. Whisenhunt ARZ, 4. Harbaugh BAL, 5. McCarthy GBY, 6. Lewis CIN, 7. Ryan NYJ, 8. Phillips DAL

Defense/Special Teams
1. NYJ, 2. BAL, 3. PHL, 4. NE, 5. GBY, 6. CIN, 7. ARZ, 8. DAL

Total Rankings
T1. NE (19), T1. PHL (19), 3. GBY (22), 4. NYJ (27), 5. BAL (28), 6. DAL (32), 7. ARZ (33), 8. CIN (36)

Final Regular Season Pick Standings
Local Games: 39-25 (straight up), 34-29-1 (against the spread)
Big Games: 37-18 (straight up), 29-24-2 (against the spread)
Knockout Pool picks: 13-4
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em: Starts avg 13.43 points, Sits avg 7.91 points (+5.52)
Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Head-to-Head: 30-11-1 (QB: 11-3, RB: 10-3-1, WR: 9-5)

We will break down each of the four Wild Card matchups on Sports With The StatMan (#41) this Sunday night, January 10th. Join us at our new time, 8-9pm Eastern. We will be among the first to analyze the Divisional Championship games. Besides football, we'll talk about the moves the Mets still have to make. We will also have some NHL talk, as the Bruins and Rangers met twice this week and the week of outdoor hockey at Fenway comes to an end.

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:
• “Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Random Musings: The Future of the Winter Classic

Welcome to my weekly sports column, “Random Musings”. In this space, mostly written on Wednesdays, this column will contain my views on something in sports that stays on my mind. If you are reading this, chances are you follow sports in some way, shape, or form. Some of us watch a lot of sports and we get inundated with information, such as scores, stats, streaks, sound bites, and singular performances. As I watch, things strike me and stick in my head. Those are the topics I want to write about.

I will mainly focus on the core sports I talk about on the “Sports With The StatMan” show: baseball, football, and hockey. But, if something catches my eye in a different sport, whether it is Landon Donovan streaking down the field for the United States in the World Cup or a Big East college basketball classic like last year’s Syracuse-Connecticut six-overtime game, I will write about that, too.

Before we get on this ride together, here is something else you should know. I am opinionated, but, in the end, I just love sports. I like to keep my focus of sports on the field, not on guns in locker rooms or athletes that have 13 mistresses sprinkled throughout the globe. Much like our show, as this column progresses, it will take on its own personality. I appreciate all of your comments and your help to make this weekly read the best read it can be.

This week, I want to talk hockey and the New Year’s Day outdoor game that has quickly earned its name, the Winter Classic.

***

The Winter Classic is only three years old, but it is already becoming a staple of the holiday season. The buzz leading up to the event, the pageantry of the festivities, and the games themselves have been great. For a day that has always been associated with college football, hockey has elbowed its way into relevance on January 1st.

Hockey has fallen off the radar in the last few years, thanks in no small part to the season-long lockout of 2004-05 and the termination of the partnership between the NHL and ESPN. Hockey was one of the “major sports” before the lockout and has been reduced to “niche sport” status in the years since. In order for hockey to get back to “big four” status, the NHL will have to lure the disenchanted fan back to the game, nevermind the casual fan. The casual fan helps propel a big sport to greater heights, but if the disenchanted fan comes back, hockey will officially be back.

The NHL has made significant strides in its programming on the NHL Network and has partnered with NBC to give the league some national network exposure. The league website, nhl.com, is a font of information about each game and the league at-large. But, the Winter Classic is the crown jewel.

The Winter Classic serves both masters: the disenchanted fan and the casual fan. It looks great on television, with the backdrop of venerable venues like Wrigley Field and Fenway Park. The game happens on a day when most people are home. The college bowl games have largely left New Year’s Day, so the day became a vulnerable spot in the sports schedule. It has become, by far, the best thing on television in its time slot. This perfect storm can allow hockey to drum up some momentum.

Momentum is key. Momentum can turn an Olympic sport into an American sensation. Momentum can make a memorable performance into a seminal moment, and keep that good feeling going for a long period of time. And, yes, momentum can even propel a sport into the collective conscience of both the disenchanted fan and the casual fan.

The Winter Classic is the NHL’s Daytona, its Super Bowl. There is a lot of potential in there. Not only is it the pomp and circumstance of the game, it is also a great opportunity to shine a light on the local college, high school, and youth ranks. Legends can skate on the ice and take part in the spectacle. The mini-rink behind the main rink, in right field, is a fantastic touch. But, the buy-in from the league is the financial aspect with Winter Classic-themed apparel and collectibles, the larger venue with jacked-up ticket prices, and the heightened television ratings allow the league and NBC to charge more for advertising.

The league’s bean-counters have undoubtedly noticed this and after the drunken haze of their celebration from this year’s edition has worn off, they must realize the only thing better than one Winter Classic is another one. Whether it is a doubleheader on New Year’s Day or a game later in the season, I am sure the wheels are in motion. If it were up to me, and such decisions appropriately are not, I would make another splash with a second Winter Classic later in the season during another vulnerable spot in the sports schedule.

The NFL has helped us out in this case, mandating a week of rest and additional hoopla between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl. They have slotted the Pro Bowl for the Sunday before the Super Bowl to kick off the week leading up to the big game. But, the Pro Bowl is the most boring of all-star games, especially when I would assume the teams participating in the Super Bowl would not send any representatives. It would allow hockey to rule the day again.

Canadian fans have complained that this is a showcase for America and that Canada should have a game, too. What about allowing the Canadian team to host the second game and rotating the Canadian cities? Play the game at neutral sites in Canada, where the game is grown and cultivated. They will guarantee a sell-out and a magical event.

If you are worried the league will rifle through its possible locations in a shorter period of time, you may be right. But, if the game is in Boston once every 10 years instead of once every 20 years, does it really matter? If you are worried about the weather, that would be the case with one game, too. Cold and snow short of a blizzard still allow for the game to be played, but rain and warm weather cannot. A game in Canada should never be rained out, but, nevertheless, a second game would be a chance worth taking for the NHL.

This year, the Vancouver Olympics in February will provide the platform for momentum before the stretch drive to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but I think the NHL should seriously consider another classic to remember hockey and bring it back to relevance.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Greatest Hitter Tournament 2010

This blog normally keeps its eye on baseball, football, and hockey. I offer my thoughts on the professional game and players from a fantasy perspective. But, as this blog evolves, so will the content. Enter the wonderful world of simulations and this is an ambitious task for this year. All throughout this year, we are going to hold the Greatest Hitter Tournament, matching up the best hitters of all-time against some of the greatest pitchers in a simulation to see which virtual players rise to the top. I think it will be something interesting to follow and something that might arise some debate as to who belongs in this field and who does not, as well as the seedings and the results. What follows is the idea for the tournament, the timeline, and the format.

Tournament Idea
Who would win in a game with nine Ted Williamses against nine Joe DiMaggios? We might find out in the Greatest Hitter Tournament. This tournament will pit the best hitters of all time in their best single-season performances against each other to see who really is the best of all-time. Throughout this year, the games will be simulated on Out of the Park Baseball X (OOTP X), from the first pitch on New Year’s Day to the Final Round, which is scheduled to be completed in December.

Who would pitch to this Murderers’ Row? There have been seven pitching staffs compiled to make these hitters work for their hits, 77 pitchers in all in their best single-season performances in a major league uniform. With each round of this tournament, the pitching staffs will be tougher and the hits and home runs will be harder to come by. We will find out how pitchers from the present and recent past would have fared against the greatest hitters of all-time.

Tournament Schedule
November 23-December 31, 2009 – Bracket Determination
January 15, 2010 – Tournament First Pitch
January 15-February 25 – First Round (Field of 96) – 6 weeks
February 26-April 8 – Second Round (Field of 64) – 6 weeks
April 9-May 20 – Third Round (Field of 32) – 6 weeks
May 21-July 1 – Fourth Round (Field of 16) – 6 weeks
July 2-August 12 – Quarterfinal Round (Field of 8) – 6 weeks
August 13-September 23 – Semifinal Round (Field of 4) – 6 weeks
September 24-December 16 – Final Round – 12 weeks

Tournament Format
Each tournament “game” will consist of 162 games between two teams in which all hitters on each team are the participant in the Greatest Hitter Tournament. The pitching staffs will be the same for all hitters in a specific round to keep everything else constant, but the pitching will be tougher with each passing round. Each Greatest Hitter Tournament team roster will consist of 14 versions of the same hitter and an 11-man pitching staff, which will have seven starters and three relievers with one wild-card. To neutralize the different eras these hitters and pitchers played in, all players’ statistics will be smoothed out so that a hitter from the Dead Ball Era is not at a disadvantage against a hitter from the Steroids Era or the Expansion Era.

The 162-game schedule will be split between both participant’s home parks and will take place in six months of playing time. For the first six rounds, one month of time will be simulated each week. This means, while the field dwindles from 96 players to two players, each round will take six weeks to complete. In the Final Round, two weeks of time will be simulated each week, which will take 12 weeks of real time to complete. During these simulations, we will stop for major events. Injuries will be turned off and any need for backup players will be handled by creating another version of the player that has to be replaced.

Along the way, a recap of each simulation will be written, covering the results, statistics, and any news that transpired during the simulation.

Stay tuned to this blog for the seedings and pitching staff assignments, which will be reported later this week. For all blog entries about this tournament, search for "Greatest Hitter Tournament 2010".

Sports With The StatMan #40: Show Notes

We had a jam-packed show as always, recorded during the Jets game on Sunday night against the Bengals. Here is the link to the show: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/the-statman/2010/01/04/sports-with-the-statman--no-40.

Timeline
00:00-12:00 Open – NFL Week 17: Jets in action against the Bengals, Patriots: Welker injury
12:00-19:00 NFL Week 17: Playoff Implications
19:00-45:00 NHL Winter Classic with Heather Yunger
45:00-50:00 Hockey: USA and Canadian Olympic Rosters Announced
50:00-55:00 NFL Week 17: Power Poll, Pick Results
55:00-59:00 NFL Week 17: Eagles-Cowboys and Giants-Vikings
59:00-64:30 Hockey: NHL Midseason Grades, World Junior Championships Update, Close
Extra Time: NFL Week 17: Top Performers, Surprises, Injury Watch

Main Points
00:00-07:00 Open – NFL Week 17: Jets in action against the Bengals, Patriots: Welker injury
Based on Sunday night’s result (Jets won, 37-0), we may have three rematches from Week 17 in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The Cowboys will host the Eagles, the Cardinals will welcome the Packers, and the Jets will go to Cincinnati to complete the home-and-home in consecutive weeks.

The biggest news today was WR Wes Welker’s injury for the Patriots. The NFL Network reported that Welker blew out his left knee and CBS’s Charlie Casserly offered that QB Tom Brady was playing Sunday with three broken ribs. The other starting WR, Randy Moss, will draw more heat from Baltimore next week.

In baseball…
LF Jason Bay will be signed pending a physical. It was a move the Mets had to make and Bay will probably bat clean-up for the Mets.

12:00-19:00 NFL Week 17: Playoff Implications
Both #1 seeds back in to the playoffs. New Orleans was 13-0 and the Saints have lost three in a row, marking the first time a #1 seed has lost three in a row going into the playoffs. Indianapolis was 14-0 and lost two in a row after falling to Buffalo on Sunday.

Minnesota got well on a flat Giants team, 44-7, to pick up the #2 seed and a bye week. The winner of Philadelphia-Dallas would win the NFC East and Dallas shook their late-season blues at home by whitewashing the Eagles, 24-0. They’ll do it again in Dallas next weekend. Arizona did not show much against Green Bay, who played to win and did so, 33-7. Same time, same place next week.

The bottom four seeds could change in the AFC Playoffs and five teams (New England, Cincinnati, Baltimore, the Jets, and Houston) were alive for the four spots. Obviously, New England and Cincinnati have spots clinched, but they might flip-flop between #3 and #4 (they did and the Patriots have the #3 seed, while the Bengals settle for #4). Baltimore owns one of the Wild Card spots by hanging on against a pesky Oakland team, 21-13. That leaves Houston and the Jets going into the Sunday game with one berth left for grabs.

Denver was alive for a spot, but lost by 20 to Kansas City as Jamaal Charles ran all over Denver. WR Brandon Marshall was benched amid controversy for the Broncos even though WR Jabar Gaffney had 213 receiving yards.

Miami was down to their third quarterback and Pittsburgh held on to defeat the Dolphins, 30-24. Chad Henne (eye) and Pat White (head) were knocked out of the game, forcing the emergency quarterback, Tyler Thigpen, to enter the game for the Dolphins. Pittsburgh was eliminated when Houston defeated the Patriots, 34-27, who are still alive going into the Sunday night game.

Jacksonville had a poor showing against Cleveland, who finished the season winning its last four. Jacksonville needed help if the Jags won, which they did not get anyway, but Jacksonville ended the season on a sour note, falling to Cleveland, 23-17.

19:00-45:00 NHL Winter Classic with Heather Yunger
Our guest, Heather Yunger, remarked about the ambience at Fenway Park, how the game felt live compared to how it looked on television, and the game itself. During play, the late-game heroics by the Bruins to tie the game in the third and win it in overtime. She finds the third-period “Sweet Caroline” singalong led by Denis Leary and Lenny Clarke “embarrassing” and a “missed opportunity” to integrate a signature of the venue and the sport of hockey.

Tim Thomas was named to the United States Olympic team and skated out to the delight of the partisan crowd and we talked about the presentation of the team after the game.

The first fight in Winter Classic history stirred the capacity crowd and there are differing views by the combatants, the Flyers’ Daniel Carcillo and the Bruins’ Shawn Thornton, on how the fisticuffs erupted.

We also look forward to college hockey on Friday at Fenway with Boston University against Boston College, preceded by two top-10 women’s teams in the first game of the college hockey doubleheader, as Northeastern takes on New Hampshire.

The Winter Classic has become must-see TV and commands an audience on a New Year’s Day, which has always been ruled by college football. But, is there value to a second Winter Classic per season? Stay tuned to my sports column this Wednesday for more on that.

If you didn't check out Bruins Coach Claude Julien and his fancy fedora at the Winter Classic, or you did and you liked it, check out his fan page on Facebook.

45:00-50:00 Hockey: USA and Canadian Olympic Rosters Announced
We talked about Tim Thomas (Bruins), who will be part of the American Olympic experience, as will Paul Martin (Devils). A couple of Olympians are locals in Bobby Ryan (Cherry Hill, NJ) and Mike Komisarek (Islip Terrace, NY). Two Rangers, Chris Drury (Trumbull, CT) and Ryan Callahan (Rochester, NY), will be representing the USA in Vancouver. The US team will noticeably be younger in these Olympics compared to past ones with NHL pros.

Kyle Okposo is not much of a snub, as USA Hockey GM Brian Burke said Okposo was considered but did not have the experience yet.

For the Canadian team, Marty Brodeur (Devils) will be in goal and joined by players from the Flyers (Chris Pronger, Mike Richards) and Bruins (Patrice Bergeron).

50:00-55:00 NFL Week 17: Power Poll, Pick Results
Power Poll
#1 Colts (not trying to win at BUF, fans/media very upset over organizational decision not to try for perfect season) (LW: #1)
#2 Chargers (11th win in a row vs WSH) (LW: #2)
#3 Saints (3 losses in a row to back in to playoffs) (LW: #3)
#4 Vikings (tune-up for playoffs against a Giants team that never got involved) (LW: #4)
#5 Packers (into top 5 because strongest 5-loss teams playing at their best right now)
Eagles fall out of the top five. Last week, they were #4.

Pick Results
Entering Week 17:
37-23 (Local W-L)
This week: 2-2; NYJ W(W), NYG L(L), NE W(L), PHL W(L)
31-28-1 (Local ATS)
This week: 3-1; NYJ (-4) (W), NYG (+9) L(L), NE (+8) W(W), PHL (+3) W(L))
34-18 (Big Games W-L)
This week: 3-0; CAR def. NO(W), PIT def. MIA (W), GBY def. ARZ (W))
26-24-2 (Big Games ATS)
This week: 3-0; CAR (+2) W(W), PIT (-3) W(W), GBY (+3) W(W))

Knockout Pool (Round 5):
SFO (W, 28-6 at STL)

Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em:
Entering Week 17, Starts avg 13.43 and Sits avg 8.07 (29-11-1 head-to-head QB/RB/WR)
QB Henne vs. Flacco (W, 9-4)
RB Sproles vs. Wells (T, 1-1)
WR Crabtree vs. Ochocinco (W, 5-0)

55:00-59:00 NFL Week 17: Eagles-Cowboys and Giants-Vikings
The Cowboys ran all over the Eagles, who tried to pass their way out of trouble against Dallas. Sometimes, teams that may face each other again the next week in the playoffs do not show anything the other team can plan against, but I do not think that was the case here. The Cowboys won their season finale for the first time in 10 years.

There has to be changes with the Giants. Could it be the Defensive Coordinator, Bill Sheridan? DE Osi Umenyiora? Offensive Coordinator Kevin Gilbride? The Giants outscored 85-9 in the seven quarters that cover the Carolina game (41-9 loss) and the first three quarters in the 44-7 loss to Minnesota. In the offseason, the Giants need help in the secondary and have to also fill the hole that may be left by LB Antonio Pierce, who may have a career-ending neck injury.

Around the League: Atlanta clinches first back-to-back winning seasons in franchise history, St. Louis clinches the top pick in next year’s draft, Cutler finishes strong, longest current winning streaks in the NFL

59:00-64:30 Hockey: NHL Midseason Grades, World Junior Championships Update, Close
NHL Midseason Grades (based on expectations heading into the season)
New Jersey –Grade: A+
Plus – Martin Brodeur keeps rolling along and the Devils have seen growth from young players Niclas Bergfors and Andy Greene
Minus – Zach Parise a little streaky and the decreased workload for Brodeur not happening
Boston – Grade: B+
Plus – the goaltending has been solid with defending Vezina Trophy winner Tim Thomas and strong backup Tuukka Rask and the Bruins have found ways to win
Minus – the injuries to Milan Lucic, Marc Savard, and Tim Thomas have stopped the team from leading the division, as well as scoring issues from their forwards without Phil Kessel
N.Y. Islanders – Grade: B-
Plus – the growth in young players Kyle Okposo, John Tavares, Josh Bailey, Jack Hillen, and Andrew MacDonald have propelled the team into contention
Minus – the special teams have been awful and the Islanders lack team toughness
N.Y. Rangers – Grade: C
Plus – Marian Gaborik is healthy and leading league in goals
Minus – the Rangers are bad at home (8-10-3), Coach John Tortorella may have gone to the whip too early with this team, and they have secondary scoring issues, as Vinny Prospal and Ryan Callahan have chipped in sometimes, but no one else seems to be scoring consistently besides Gaborik
Philadelphia – Grade: D
Plus – the Flyers are still in playoff race despite their play in the first half
Minus – John Stevens was fired and replaced by Peter Laviolette, and the team has not responded all that well since Laviolette took over, Ray Emery wasn’t great when he was healthy

World Junior Championships: USA makes the medal round and still alive for the gold in the semifinals after beating Finland on Sunday. The semifinals are on Monday and the Gold Medal and Bronze Medal games are on Tuesday.

Around the League: Andy Murray out as Blues head coach

Extra Time: NFL Week 17: Top Performers, Surprises, Injury Watch
We did not get to our regular installments during our packed show.
Top Performers:
300-yard passers – entering Week 17 (64-36 (.640))
o This week: 3-1
o Favre, Romo, Schaub with wins, Orton with loss
100-yard rushers – entering Week 17 (72-34 (.679))
o This week: 10-0
o Congratulations to Chris Johnson, who became the 6th RB in history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season
100-yard receivers – entering Week 17 (101-57 (.639))
o This week: 2-3
o Malcom Floyd (SDG) and Malcolm Kelly (WSH) played in same game
o Julian Edelman had a good performance and will be leaned on after Welker’s injury

Surprises (players):
Jamaal Charles (259 rushing yards)
Jabar Gaffney (213 receiving yards)
Willis McGahee (167 rushing yards, 3 TDs in 21-13 win, which clinched playoff berth)

Injury Watch
Out in Week 17 (replacements)
o RB Michael Turner ATL (still ailing with ankle) (RB Snelling 100-yd day, RB Norwood)
o WR Vincent Jackson SDG (Achilles) (WR Craig Davis) (Chargers need Jackson for playoffs)
o RB Laurence Maroney NE (RB Taylor, RB Morris, RB Faulk)
Injured in Week 17 (replacements, effect on games)
o WR Anquan Boldin ARZ (knee, ankle) (Breaston)
o WR Wes Welker NE (left knee) (Edelman)
o QB Chad Henne MIA (eye)/QB Pat White MIA (head) (Thigpen)

Next Week
Next Sunday night (January 10th), Sports With The StatMan (#41) moves to our new time, 8-9pm Eastern time. We will talk about Wild Card Weekend, which will be almost complete. We will also wrap up our regular season predictions. In hockey, the Bruins and Rangers play twice, Monday in New York and Saturday in Boston, and I’ll be back from my trip to Fenway to witness a little college hockey. Also, if something gets cooking on the Hot Stove, we’ll chat about that, too.

Upcoming Schedule
Saturday: Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition – Wild Card Weekend (blog)
Sunday morning: Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Hockey Edition – Week 15 (blog)
Sunday, 8-9pm ET: Sports With The StatMan: No. 41 (live show)

* All blogs will be available on our “secondary” blog, which is called “Random Musings from the StatMan” (http://gstatman.blogspot.com). We move our regular Sunday one-hour show to our new time, 8-9pm Eastern time, starting next week (January 10th). You can listen to the show live at our show page (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan) or download the podcast, which is available 15 minutes after the show, either from the show page or from iTunes (search: Sports With The StatMan).

Here are the ways to follow along and get in touch with the show:
Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan
Twitter: http://twitter.com/gstatman
“Random Musings” blog: http://gstatman.blogspot.com

Be sure to check the show page for times and schedules of our one-hour show and our Fantasy Football and Fantasy Hockey Editions.

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Sports With The StatMan for 2010

Happy New Year to you and yours! I started "Sports With The StatMan" last April as a weekly show to discuss the issues of the day in baseball, football, and hockey for the teams in the New York, Boston, and Philadelphia areas. One of the many things I have learned over the last nine months has been how much there truly is to talk about. Most of our shows have been much more than an hour and, for those of you joining us live, after an hour, the feed cuts out and you have to wait a few minutes for the podcast version to be ready. This is one of the things I want to remedy in the New Year.

First of all, we are going to keep our "Sports With The StatMan" show intact, but it will be kept to one hour. I will try my best not to have it flow past the top of the next hour. We are going to keep the same schedule we kept for most of the last year. During football season, the show will be on from 10-11pm Eastern time on Sunday nights. Starting January 10th until the beginning of next football season, we will be on from 8-9pm Eastern time on Sunday nights. But, due to my personal schedule, I may have to reschedule the show once in a while. Keep your eye on the show page for any changes.

We will continue to talk about the same sports on our show, look at the same teams, and talk about the same issues. However, I have noticed that combining talk about fantasy and reality does not make much sense since those that care about one sometimes do not care about the other. If you care about fantasy, do you really want to wait until 40 minutes after the hour to hear the Top Performers or into the podcast-only version to know who the top scorers in hockey were? If you only care about the play on the field, does it matter who the top fantasy players were in a given week? I want to keep the focus on the teams we cover, but I want to keep the fantasy and statistical content you have come to expect from the "Sports With The StatMan" show.

To that end, we are going to add some supplementary programming to "Sports With The StatMan". The extra programming will be a 15-minute show each week for each of the sports we cover: baseball, football, and hockey. If it is in-season, we will have that extra 15-minute show:

  • On "Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Football Edition", we will pick the local games and the big games of the week, as well as our "knockout" pick, and who to start and sit in your fantasy football league. We will also look at the fantasy angle, including our weekly look at the Top Performers. We will have 15-minute shows throughout January as the regular season finishes up and the playoffs rage on, closing our 15-minute show schedule during NFC and AFC Championship Weekend (weekend of January 22-24).
  • On "Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Hockey Edition", we will discuss the best players from the past week in the NHL at each position, both from our five local teams and around the league. We will also offer some advice on who to start and who to sit for your fantasy hockey lineups. Our 15-minute shows for hockey will start in early January and go through the Stanley Cup Finals in early June.
  • On "Sports With The StatMan: Fantasy Baseball Edition", we will break down the past week in baseball to highlight the best statistical performances of the past week. We will also talk about things from a fantasy perspective, offering more advice to who to start, who to sit, who to pick up, and who to drop in your fantasy baseball leagues. We will start the weekend before the season starts (April 4th) and continue through the World Series.

As we introduce more listener interaction, either through live chats, through comments to the show page or the blog, or questions and comments on Twitter, we'll answer the fantasy-related questions during these shows.

We are also going to be more active off-the-air. Every Monday, the show notes from the past show will be up and available on both the show page and the secondary blog, "Random Musings from the StatMan". Also, every Wednesday, I am going to start a sports column to either finish a thought I could not complete on the show, expand on that thought, or talk about something else in the world of sports. This sports column will be available exclusively on the secondary blog.

And, finally, each Wednesday night, I am going to be available for a listener chat on blogtalkradio.com. Check the show notes each week for the details on when the chat will take place.

Here are the important links to find out the latest schedule and blogs:
  • Show Page: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/The-StatMan (or search "Sports With The StatMan" on iTunes)
  • Twitter Feed: http://twitter.com/gstatman
  • Secondary Blog ("Random Musings" Blog): http://gstatman.blogspot.com
I invite you to keep listening to the "Sports With The StatMan" Sunday night show for the week that was in baseball, football, and hockey and for the local teams in the New York, Boston, and Philadelphia. Also, take a listen to the 15-minute "quick hit" fantasy editions of our shows available each week. If you play fantasy sports, it could help you win a championship. If you don't, you might start. If you are into the stats as I am (my nickname is the StatMan, after all), it could be informative.

These shows and the content on this site will only get better with your feedback. Drop me a line and let me know what you like and don't like about the show. I can't guarantee I'll change, but I will try my best to accommodate. If you have any sports questions or sports topics you have a take on, I'd love to hear it. Get involved!

Here are the upcoming episodes for January on Sports With The StatMan:
  • Fantasy Football Edition - Week 17 (available now)
  • Fantasy Hockey Edition - Week 14 (to be recorded on 1/3/10)
  • Sports With The StatMan: No. 40 (Sunday, January 3rd, 10-11pm ET)
  • Fantasy Football Edition - Wild Card Weekend (to be recorded by 1/9/10)
  • Fantasy Hockey Edition - Week 15 (to be recorded on 1/10/10)
  • Sports With The StatMan: No. 41 (Sunday, January 10th, 8-9pm ET
  • Fantasy Football Edition - Divisional Championship (to be recorded by 1/16/10)
  • Fantasy Hockey Edition - Week 16 (to be recorded on 1/17/10)
  • Sports With The StatMan: No. 42 (Sunday, January 17th, 8-9pm ET)
  • Fantasy Football Edition - Conference Championship Weekend (to be recorded by 1/23/10)
  • Fantasy Hockey Edition - Week 17 (to be recorded on 1/24/10)
  • Sports With The StatMan: No. 43 (Sunday, January 24th, 8-9pm ET)
  • Fantasy Hockey Edition - Week 18 (to be recorded on 1/31/10)
Once again, Happy New Year, and I hope you enjoy the newest offerings from "Sports With The StatMan".

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