Week 14 NFL Picks

KNOCKOUT POOL/ESPN.com ELIMINATOR CHALLENGE

Week 13 eliminated over 2,000 of the remaining players on ESPN.com’s Eliminator Challenge and we have about 3,400 players left.  We take our 13-0 record into Week 14 after Peyton Manning and the Broncos helped me out by coming back in the second half to defeat a pesky Tampa Bay team..

This week’s pick: Tampa Bay defeating Philadelphia

In a first this year, I am going to pick a team I picked against last week as my lock this week.  Tampa Bay was pesky and convinced me that they are better than I was giving them credit for.  It also helps when they host a team in the Eagles who are playing out the string.  You have heard whispers about the team quitting and not showing up because their starting quarterback, starting running back, and top receiver are all basically done for the year.  Tampa Bay is believing in themselves, and Josh Freeman continues to mature.  I will pick Freeman and rookie runner Doug Martin will pass and run over the Eagles defense.

PAST PICKS

Week 1: Houston (W vs. MIA)

Week 2: N.Y. Giants (W vs. TBY)

Week 3: Chicago (W vs. STL)

Week 4: Baltimore (W vs. CLE)

Week 5: San Francisco (W vs. BUF)

Week 6: N.Y. Jets (W vs. IND)

Week 7: Minnesota (W vs. ARZ)

Week 8: Green Bay (W vs. JAX)

Week 9: Seattle (W vs. MIN)

Week 10: Pittsburgh (W vs. KCY)

Week 11: Dallas (W vs. CLE)

Week 12: Indianapolis (W vs. BUF)

Week 13: Denver (W vs TBY)

GAME PICKS/ESPN.com PIGSKIN PICK ‘EM

Here are the game picks for this week.  We also have a “Sports With the StatMan” entry in the ESPN.com Pigskin Pick ‘Em for games against the spread.  We talk about the local games and the three of the other most important games, our “Big Games”, on our weekly This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Saturdays, but we pick every game, every week here on the blog.  Here they are:

LOCAL GAMES

Last Week: 3-1 straight up, 1-3 against the spread

Season: 31-14 straight up, 23-21-1 against the spread

Week 14 Picks:

N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: NYJ, Against the Spread: NYJ (-2.5)

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: TBY, Against the Spread: PHL (+7.5)

New Orleans at N.Y. Giants (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: NO, Against the Spread: NO (+5.5)

Houston at New England (Monday night) – Straight Up: NE, Against the Spread: NE (-4.5)

BIG GAMES

Last Week: 1-2 straight up, 2-1 against the spread

Season: 31-9 straight up, 24-16 against the spread

Week 14 Picks:

Baltimore at Washington (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: BAL, Against the Spread: BAL (+0.5)

Dallas at Cincinnati (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: CIN, Against the Spread: CIN (-3.5)

Chicago at Minnesota (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: CHI, Against the Spread: CHI (-2.5)

OTHER GAMES

Last Week: 6-4 straight up, 7-3 against the spread

Season: 68-40 straight up, 57-51 against the spread

Week 14 Picks:

St. Louis at Buffalo (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: BUF, Against the Spread: BUF (-3.5)

Atlanta at Carolina (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: ATL, Against the Spread: ATL (-3.5)

Kansas City at Cleveland (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: CLE, Against the Spread: KCY (+5.5)

San Diego at Pittsburgh (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: PIT, Against the Spread: PIT (-6.5)

Tennessee at Indianapolis (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: IND, Against the Spread: IND (-5.5)

Miami at San Francisco (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: SFO, Against the Spread: SFO (-10.5)

Arizona at Seattle (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: SEA, Against the Spread: SEA (-10.5)

Detroit at Green Bay (Sunday night) – Straight Up: GBY, Against the Spread: GBY (-6.5)

START ‘EM/ANTI-START ‘EM/ESPN.com GRIDIRON CHALLENGE

We are participating in the ESPN Gridiron Challenge on ESPN.com.  The object is to pick the best team possible with a $50 million salary cap.  However, we are adding another wrinkle.  The object of the ESPN.com is to buy low and sell high and the more you accomplish that, the more money you get in your salary cap.  My goal is to put together a nine-man unit (2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) that is better than another nine-man unit at a similar price.

So far this season, my nine-man squad is 7-5-1 against a comparable squad with a 6-0-1 record in the last seven weeks:

Week 1: Head-to-Head – L, 107-124; By Position – 2-6-1

Week 2: Head-to-Head – L, 73-98; By Position – 3-6

Week 3: Head-to-Head – L, 103-139; By Position – 3-6

Week 4: Head-to-Head – L, 105-118; By Position – 4-5

Week 5: Head-to-Head – W, 110-56; By Position – 7-2

Week 6: Head-to-Head – L, 98-127; By Position – 2-6-1

Week 7: Head-to-Head – W, 119-80; By Position – 6-3

Week 8: Head-to-Head – T, 75-75; By Position – 3-5-1

Week 9: Head-to-Head – W, 138-105; By Position – 4-4-1

Week 10: Head-to-Head – W, 145-43; By Position – 9-0

Week 11: Head-to-Head – W, 100-65; By Position – 5-4

Week 12: Head-to-Head – W, 98-95; By Position – 5-4

Week 13: Head-to-Head – W, 92-81; By Position – 5-4

TOTALS: W-L: 7-5-1, PF: 1363, PA: 1196, By Position: 58-55-4

Here is the Week 14 entry in the Gridrion Challenge, our “Start ‘Em” team, along with our comparable “Anti-Start ‘Em” team, which is our opponent for the week:

(all dollar figures in millions)

Start ‘Em Team	POS	Anti-Start ‘Em Team
Andrew Luck IND ($7.4)	QB	Tom Brady NE ($7.8)
Brandon Weeden CLE ($5.4)	QB	Philip Rivers SDG ($5.8)
BenJarvis Green-Ellis CIN ($7.4)	RB	Michael Turner ATL ($7.5)
Alex Green GBY ($4.8)	RB	Pierre Thomas NO ($5.3)
Torrey Smith BAL ($6.4)	WR	Mike Williams TBY ($6.3)
Chris Givens STL ($5.1)	WR	Danario Alexander SDG ($5.1)
Jermichael Finley GBY ($4.7)	TE	Tony Moeaki KCY ($4.6)
Alex Henery PHL ($4.4)	K	Nick Novak SDG ($3.7)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers TBY ($4.3)	DEF	Dallas Cowboys DAL ($3.9)
$49.9 million	TOTAL	$50.0 million

Catch me on "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesdays at 11pm ET and Saturdays at 11am ET. We'll break down these picks and look ahead to next week on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment, Saturday morning at 11am ET.