Sunday, December 30, 2012

Week 17 NFL Picks


If Nick Foles did not find Jeremy Maclin in the end zone in the final moments in Tampa Bay, I would be going for Knockout Pool immortality.  Instead, a very nice 15-1 record gives me a chance at a 16-win regular season in Week 17 after Washington held off Philadelphia again.  I was picking the road team for the first time all season in the Redskins and they did not disappoint in their 27-20 victory in Philly.

This week’s pick: New England defeating Miami

New England is as dependable a team as you will find for a Knockout Pool.  They win the games they are supposed to win.  At least, they have been that team since the middle of the season.  The early-season loss at home to Arizona is a definite exception and a close loss in Seattle can be excused because the Seahawks have been nothing short of phenomenal at home.  New England typically plays to win on the last week of the season, whether something is on the line or not.  But, there is something on the line for the Patriots, as a Houston or Denver loss and Patriots win would garner a bye week in the Wild Card round.

Week 1: Houston (W vs. MIA)
Week 2: N.Y. Giants (W vs. TBY)
Week 3: Chicago (W vs. STL)
Week 4: Baltimore (W vs. CLE)
Week 5: San Francisco (W vs. BUF)
Week 6: N.Y. Jets (W vs. IND)
Week 7: Minnesota (W vs. ARZ)
Week 8: Green Bay (W vs. JAX)
Week 9: Seattle (W vs. MIN)
Week 10: Pittsburgh (W vs. KCY)
Week 11: Dallas (W vs. CLE)
Week 12: Indianapolis (W vs. BUF)
Week 13: Denver (W vs TBY)
Week 14: Tampa Bay (L vs PHL)
Week 15: Miami (W vs JAX)
Week 16: Washington (W at PHL)


Here are the game picks for this week.  We also have a “Sports With the StatMan” entry in the Pigskin Pick ‘Em for games against the spread.  We talk about the local games and the three of the other most important games, our “Big Games”, on our weekly This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Saturdays, but we pick every game, every week here on the blog.  Here they are:


Last Week: 2-2 straight up, 1-3 against the spread
Season: 37-20 straight up, 28-28-1 against the spread

Week 17 Picks:
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: PHL, Against the Spread: PHL (+7.5)
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: BUF, Against the Spread: BUF (-3.5)
Miami at New England (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: NE, Against the Spread: NE (-10.5)


Last Week: 2-1 straight up, 3-0 against the spread
Season: 36-13 straight up, 29-20 against the spread

Week 17 Picks:
Houston at Indianapolis (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: IND, Against the Spread: IND (+3.5)
Green Bay at Minnesota (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: GBY, Against the Spread: GBY (-3.5)
Dallas at Washington (Sunday night) – Straight Up: WSH, Against the Spread: DAL (+3.5)


Last Week: 8-1 straight up, 7-2 against the spread
Season: 85-49 straight up, 70-64 against the spread

Week 17 Picks:
Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: ATL, Against the Spread: ATL (-3.5)
Baltimore at Cincinnati (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: CIN, Against the Spread: CIN (-2.5)
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: PIT, Against the Spread: PIT (-6.5)
Chicago at Detroit (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: CHI, Against the Spread: CHI (-3.5)
Jacksonville at Tennessee (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: TEN, Against the Spread: TEN (-4.5)
Carolina at New Orleans (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: NO, Against the Spread: NO (-4.5)
St. Louis at Seattle (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: SEA, Against the Spread: SEA (-10.5)
Kansas City at Denver (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: DEN, Against the Spread: DEN (-15.5)
Oakland at San Diego (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: SDG, Against the Spread: SDG (-4.5)
Arizona at San Francisco (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: SFO, Against the Spread: SFO (-14.5)


We are participating in the ESPN Gridiron Challenge on  The object is to pick the best team possible with a $50 million salary cap.  However, we are adding another wrinkle.  The object of the is to buy low and sell high and the more you accomplish that, the more money you get in your salary cap.  My goal is to put together a nine-man unit (2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) that is better than another nine-man unit at a similar price.

So far this season, my nine-man squad is 8-7-1 against a comparable squad, losing two of my last three, but breaking my two-game losing streak last week:

Week 1: Head-to-Head – L, 107-124; By Position – 2-6-1
Week 2: Head-to-Head – L, 73-98; By Position – 3-6
Week 3: Head-to-Head – L, 103-139; By Position – 3-6
Week 4: Head-to-Head – L, 105-118; By Position – 4-5
Week 5: Head-to-Head – W, 110-56; By Position – 7-2
Week 6: Head-to-Head – L, 98-127; By Position – 2-6-1
Week 7: Head-to-Head – W, 119-80; By Position – 6-3
Week 8: Head-to-Head – T, 75-75; By Position – 3-5-1
Week 9: Head-to-Head – W, 138-105; By Position – 4-4-1
Week 10: Head-to-Head – W, 145-43; By Position – 9-0
Week 11: Head-to-Head – W, 100-65; By Position – 5-4
Week 12: Head-to-Head – W, 98-95; By Position – 5-4
Week 13: Head-to-Head – W, 92-81; By Position – 5-4
Week 14: Head-to-Head – L, 54-110; By Position – 1-6-2
Week 15: Head-to-Head – L, 75-91; By Position – 3-5-1
Week 16: Head-to-Head – W, 99-51; By Position – 5-4
TOTALS: W-L: 8-7-1, PF: 1591, PA: 1448, By Position: 67-70-7

Here is the Week 17 entry in the Gridrion Challenge, our “Start ‘Em” team, along with our comparable “Anti-Start ‘Em” team, which is our opponent for the week:

(all dollar figures in millions)

Start ‘Em Team


Anti-Start ‘Em Team

Tony Romo DAL ($7.8)
Peyton Manning DEN ($7.6)
Michael Vick PHL ($6.5)
Joe Flacco BAL ($6.4)
Darren Sproles NO ($7.3)
Mikel Leshoure DET ($7.1)
Danny Woodhead NE ($6.0)
Jonathan Dwyer PIT ($5.8)
Danario Alexander SDG ($5.8)
Danny Amendola STL ($5.4)
Jeremy Kerley NYJ ($4.5)
Brian Hartline MIA ($5.1)
Brent Celek PHL ($4.7)
Jeff Cumberland NYJ ($4.6)
Olindo Mare CHI ($3.9)
Graham Gano CAR ($3.6)
New Orleans Saints NO ($3.5)
Cleveland Browns CLE ($4.4)
$50.0 million
$50.0 million

Catch me on "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesdays at 11pm ET and Saturdays at 11am ET. We'll break down these picks and look ahead to next week on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment, Saturday morning at 11am ET.

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