Sunday, December 16, 2012

Week 15 NFL Picks


Well, the dream is over.  After 13 weeks of perfect picks, Week 14 was my exit from the ranks of perfection.  The Buccaneers had the game in hand, they even had an 11-point lead on a team that was supposed to mail it in.  But, the Eagles did the opposite.  In the final moments, rookie Nick Foles threw a touchdown pass to Jeremy Maclin to surprise Tampa Bay and essentially end their playoff hopes with a 23-21 win.

This week’s pick: Miami defeating Jacksonville

There are not a lot of good teams left to pick.  I was not going to go against the Eagles again.  So, the Bengals were not on my list of possible picks.  I could go against Tampa Bay and choose New Orleans.  But, after the Saints looked pedestrian against the Giants last week, no thank you.  I will go with the Dolphins this week, hoping that their offense can do something more than nothing against Jacksonville.

Week 1: Houston (W vs. MIA)
Week 2: N.Y. Giants (W vs. TBY)
Week 3: Chicago (W vs. STL)
Week 4: Baltimore (W vs. CLE)
Week 5: San Francisco (W vs. BUF)
Week 6: N.Y. Jets (W vs. IND)
Week 7: Minnesota (W vs. ARZ)
Week 8: Green Bay (W vs. JAX)
Week 9: Seattle (W vs. MIN)
Week 10: Pittsburgh (W vs. KCY)
Week 11: Dallas (W vs. CLE)
Week 12: Indianapolis (W vs. BUF)
Week 13: Denver (W vs TBY)
Week 14: Tampa Bay (L vs PHL)


Here are the game picks for this week.  We also have a “Sports With the StatMan” entry in the Pigskin Pick ‘Em for games against the spread.  We talk about the local games and the three of the other most important games, our “Big Games”, on our weekly This Week in Fantasy Sports segment on Saturdays, but we pick every game, every week here on the blog.  Here they are:


Last Week: 2-2 straight up, 3-1 against the spread
Season: 33-16 straight up, 26-22-1 against the spread

Week 15 Picks:
Cincinnati at Philadelphia (Thursday night) – Straight Up: CIN, Against the Spread: PHL (+3.5)
N.Y. Giants at Atlanta (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: NYG, Against the Spread: NYG (+1.5)
San Francisco at New England (Sunday night) – Straight Up: NE, Against the Spread: NE (-5.5)
N.Y. Jets at Tennessee (Monday night) – Straight Up: TEN, Against the Spread: TEN (-1.5)


Last Week: 0-3 straight up, 0-3 against the spread
Season: 31-12 straight up, 24-19 against the spread

Week 15 Picks:
Green Bay at Chicago (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: GBY, Against the Spread: GBY (-2.5)
Denver at Baltimore (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: DEN, Against the Spread: DEN (-2.5)
Indianapolis at Houston (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: HOU, Against the Spread: IND (+7.5)


Last Week: 6-3 straight up, 4-5 against the spread
Season: 73-43 straight up, 60-56 against the spread

Week 15 Picks:
Washington at Cleveland (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: CLE, Against the Spread: CLE (-1.5)
Minnesota at St. Louis (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: STL, Against the Spread: STL (-2.5)
Jacksonville at Miami (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: MIA, Against the Spread: JAX (+7.5)
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (Sunday 1pm) – Straight Up: NO, Against the Spread: NO (-3.5)
Seattle at Buffalo (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: SEA, Against the Spread: SEA (-5.5)
Detroit at Arizona (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: DET, Against the Spread: DET (-5.5)
Carolina at San Diego (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: SDG, Against the Spread: SDG (-2.5)
Pittsburgh at Dallas (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: PIT, Against the Spread: PIT (-1.5)
Kansas City at Oakland (Sunday 4pm) – Straight Up: OAK, Against the Spread: OAK (-2.5)


We are participating in the ESPN Gridiron Challenge on  The object is to pick the best team possible with a $50 million salary cap.  However, we are adding another wrinkle.  The object of the is to buy low and sell high and the more you accomplish that, the more money you get in your salary cap.  My goal is to put together a nine-man unit (2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF) that is better than another nine-man unit at a similar price.

So far this season, my nine-man squad is 7-5-1 against a comparable squad with a 6-0-1 record in the last seven weeks:

Week 1: Head-to-Head – L, 107-124; By Position – 2-6-1
Week 2: Head-to-Head – L, 73-98; By Position – 3-6
Week 3: Head-to-Head – L, 103-139; By Position – 3-6
Week 4: Head-to-Head – L, 105-118; By Position – 4-5
Week 5: Head-to-Head – W, 110-56; By Position – 7-2
Week 6: Head-to-Head – L, 98-127; By Position – 2-6-1
Week 7: Head-to-Head – W, 119-80; By Position – 6-3
Week 8: Head-to-Head – T, 75-75; By Position – 3-5-1
Week 9: Head-to-Head – W, 138-105; By Position – 4-4-1
Week 10: Head-to-Head – W, 145-43; By Position – 9-0
Week 11: Head-to-Head – W, 100-65; By Position – 5-4
Week 12: Head-to-Head – W, 98-95; By Position – 5-4
Week 13: Head-to-Head – W, 92-81; By Position – 5-4
Week 14: Head-to-Head – L, 54-110; By Position – 1-6-2
TOTALS: W-L: 7-6-1, PF: 1417, PA: 1306, By Position: 59-61-6

Here is the Week 15 entry in the Gridrion Challenge, our “Start ‘Em” team, along with our comparable “Anti-Start ‘Em” team, which is our opponent for the week:

(all dollar figures in millions)

Start ‘Em Team


Anti-Start ‘Em Team

Philip Rivers SDG ($6.1)
Matthew Stafford DET ($7.4)
Brandon Weeden CLE ($5.3)
Jake Locker TEN ($6.0)
Jamaal Charles KCY ($7.7)
Stevan Ridley NE ($8.1)
Jonathan Dwyer PIT ($5.7)
Montell Owens JAX ($5.0)
Mike Wallace PIT ($6.6)
Denarius Moore OAK ($6.3)
Michael Crabtree SFO ($6.2)
Kendall Wright TEN ($5.2)
Marcedes Lewis JAX ($4.8)
Antonio Gates SDG ($4.9)
Shayne Graham HOU ($4.2)
Blair Walsh MIN ($4.0)
Detroit Lions DET ($3.4)
New Orleans Saints NO ($3.1)
$50.0 million
$50.0 million

Catch me on "Sports With The StatMan" on Wednesdays at 11pm ET and Saturdays at 11am ET. We'll break down these picks and look ahead to next week on our This Week in Fantasy Sports segment, Saturday morning at 11am ET.

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